Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 161028
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
228 AM PST Tue Jan 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...

A stronger and colder storm system will move into the
Sierra and western Nevada early Thursday morning through Friday.
Strong gusty winds on Thursday will precede the heavy mountain snow
and valley rains for late Thursday into Friday. There is potential
for snow down to all valley floors by Friday morning, with periods
of blowing snow and poor visibility for the Sierra and western
Nevada.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

Showers are beginning across far northern California and
northwestern Nevada this morning as the initial weak storm pushes
through the region. Light snow accumulations will be possible
above 7000 feet. Slick roads will be possible this morning, but
otherwise precipitation with this storm should be over by this
afternoon with no showers expected Wednesday.

Wednesday will be a brief break between storms, and a great
opportunity to double check that gates, fences, and other outdoor
items are secure ahead of the strong winds for Thursday.

Thursday and Thursday night, a strong front will drop south across
northeast California and western Nevada. This cold front will bring
strong, gusty winds followed by moderate to heavy mountain snow,
with valley rain changing to snow behind the front.

* Strong Damaging Winds Thursday: Simulations continue to show the
  potential for a downslope wind event along the lee of the Sierra
  for Thursday. Model soundings depict a stable layer around 600-
  700mb with winds around 55-70 kts for multiple hours starting
  early Thursday morning and strengthening through Thursday
  afternoon. Widespread gusts to 55 mph are expected near and west
  of Highway 95 Thursday afternoon and evening, with gusts 65-75
  mph possible in wind-prone areas along Interstate 580 and
  Highway 395 between Janesville and the Mammoth airport. Strong
  winds like this have been known to result in high profile
  restrictions along with power outages from downed powerlines.
  Areas of blowing dust may also be a concern ahead of the
  precipitation. Winds should decrease substantially for most
  areas with along the cold front as strong flow aloft will
  promote good spillover.

* Precipitation Thursday-Friday: This storm continues to look like
  a moderate winter storm with a brief moisture tap. No major
  changes have been made to the snowfall or QPF amounts. Winter
  storm watch is in effect for Lassen County south through the
  Lake Tahoe area with 1-2 feet of snow possible above 6500 feet
  and 3-6 inches possible down to 4500 feet. Strong winds and
  powdery snow will result in blowing snow and hazardous low
  visibilities Thursday night into Friday morning, especially for
  the Sierra passes. Dynamic cold front along with a strong upper
  level jet will allow precipitation to spillover readily into
  western Nevada starting late Thursday evening and overnight
  through Friday morning. Western Nevada will see 0.25" to 0.50"
  of precipitation while the Basin and Range could see around
  0.10" to 0.25".

* Snow levels/Lower Valley Snowfall: Snow levels will drop
  significantly behind cold frontal passage early Friday morning.
  Upper level jet support along with the unstable conditions along
  the cold front will allow for snowfall in western Nevada. Several
  inches of snowfall is possible west of Interstate 580/Highway 395
  Friday morning, with some accumulation possible down to valley
  floors. FRIDAY MORNING`S COMMUTE IN WESTERN NEVADA MAY BE DICEY so
  leave plenty of time to reach your destination.

Leftover snow showers will continue Friday afternoon into Saturday
morning as the cold core of the low moves across central and
southern Nevada. -Edan

.LONG TERM...Saturday and beyond...

Medium range models continue to bring in another storm to northern
CA/NV Sunday-Monday. Forecaster confidence continues to rise
regarding this storm, bringing additional snowfall and strong
winds to the region. Snow levels will most likely start out much
lower leading to winter impacts to travel even down on the valley
floors. The details are still fuzzy as the models struggle to
iron out where the jet stream is going to set up, so we aren`t
even going to speculate on snow amounts at this time.

That being said, there is very good confidence that we will see
another weak to moderate AR storm system into the region Sunday-
Monday, with active unsettled weather expected to continue through
next week and through the end of January. -Hoon

&&

.AVIATION...

A weak storm system moving into the region will bring the threat
of light rain and mountain snow through 18z this morning, along
with MVFR CIGs, mountain obscuration and icing. Mountain wave
turbulence is possible through 16z this morning as well,
especially along and east of the Sierra Crest with ridge winds up
to 50kts over the Sierra.

A stronger winter storm will move into the region Thursday into
Friday. Thursday`s winds will be severe, with wind gusts at area
terminals near 40-50kts, causing low-level wind shear and moderate
to severe mountain wave turbulence over the mountains. This storm
will also bring snow to the region Thursday night into Friday,
along with MVFR/IFR CIG/VIS and accumulating snow at all area
terminals, even an inch or two possible for KRNO-KCXP by Friday
morning. -Hoon

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Winter Storm Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday
     afternoon NVZ002.

CA...Winter Storm Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday
     afternoon CAZ071-072.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno



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