Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 281029

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
329 AM PDT Fri Oct 28 2016


Periods of moderate to heavy rain are expected through early this
afternoon. A break is expected in the precipitation for most areas
Friday night through Saturday afternoon. A colder storm is
expected Sunday morning with significant travel disruptions
possible in the Sierra.



Upper level low just off the coast of central California is
pushing a wide swath of sub-tropical moisture into the region.
This system is expected to bring moderate to heavy rain to the
Sierra and western Nevada today. A Flash Flood Watch remains in
effect for the recent burn scars of the Little Valley and Emerald
fires. The heaviest precipitation and greatest threat of rock
slides and debris flows will be this morning through early
afternoon when the best chance of heavier convective precipitation
is expected.

Snow levels are currently running around 11,000 feet and are
expected to stay above 9,000 feet through today due to the warm
origins of the moisture. Spill-over precipitation into Nevada is
expected to continue to be very efficient with near record
moisture moving through the region today.

By late afternoon/early evening most of the precipitation will come
to an end with lingering light showers possible along the Sierra
crest and in the northern Sierra through the weekend. Friday
night through Saturday afternoon most of the region will see a
break in precipitation before the next storm moves in early
Sunday morning.

The second system for the weekend is originating in the Gulf of
Alaska and will be more of a typical early season winter storm.
Winds will begin to pick up Saturday with the strongest winds
expected Sunday morning ahead of the cold front as 700mb winds pick
up to 50+ knots.

Snow is expected for all Sierra passes starting early Sunday
morning with snow levels starting around 6500-7500 feet and
dropping to around 6000 feet by Sunday evening. A Winter Weather
Advisory remains in effect for the Sierra with hazardous travel
conditions expected to start late Saturday night and last through
the day on Sunday. Storm for Sunday still looks on track to bring
6 to 18 inches of snow above 7000 feet. Snow will taper off to
snow showers by Sunday afternoon with up to a couple inches of
snow possible down to around 6000 feet. -Zach

.LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday...

A few adjustments to the next weakening storm arriving Monday night,
but otherwise didn`t make many changes for next week. The next
system for Monday night is arriving faster in all the guidance so
sped up timing for this system to Monday night from Tuesday. It
does not look like a big system with precip amounts generally a
quarter inch or less north and west of a Truckee to Gerlach line.
Snow levels will be lower with this system as well and near 6000-
6500 feet.

Behind this system, the storm track shifts north with a low
amplitude ridge over the Sierra. Temperatures will warm slowly, but
remain near average for early November. The splitting system that has
been in the models for the past couple days for late Wednesday into
Thursday is even weaker this morning and it will have little impact.
At this time it appears the ridge will hold with generally light
winds in the valleys, although some increase in ridge gusts is
possible Wednesday night. Even then, the gusts would likely be 40 mph
or less.


Rain continues across the region this morning and will continue into
the afternoon. Periods of MVFR CIGS/VIS are likely in RA from now
through 02Z in all areas and at all terminals. Winds will be light
this morning, but increase at ridge level this afternoon, but
significant shear or turbulence are not expected.

Improving conditions aft 02Z with VFR conditions except for areas of
MVFR in the Sierra from Tahoe north due to occasional -RA. The next
storm is expected to arrive Saturday night into Sunday with gusty
ridge winds, some LLWS and turbulence. It will be followed by RA/SN
for all areas with some MVFR/IFR conds likely, especially in the


.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM to 11 PM PDT Sunday above 6500
     feet in NVZ002.

     Flash Flood Watch through this afternoon NVZ002.

CA...Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Sunday above
     7000 feet in CAZ073.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM to 11 PM PDT Sunday above 6500
     feet in CAZ072.

     Flash Flood Watch through this afternoon CAZ072.



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