Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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FXUS65 KRIW 301925
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
125 PM MDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Tuesday

Upper low spinning over Nrn MT attm and will move ewd into Ern ND by
the end of this period. Initial cold front pushed south thru our nrn
zones earlier today with gusty north wind. Johnson County was
stabilized behind the first front and is just now trying to warm
up enough to get some instability going. Temp/dp is still marginal
but there appears to be a couple hour window late this aftn for a
round of tstms before temps start falling again. Could see a
couple stronger storms across the nrn and ern zones for a few
hours yet. Otherwise, potential of some lingering clouds
overnight east of the divide with second frontal surge with
possible cigs in the 040- 060 range. Front will likely push swwd
into the Red Desert and then run out of steam in the Srn Upper
Green. a few light showers or sprinkles may linger into the early
morning hours in the central and ern zones along the mid level
front/forcing area and brief upslope. Otherwise...system begins to
move off to the east on Tuesday with a few lingering showers in
the far nern zones and possibly in the central mtns (Absarokas/Wind
Rivers). Otherwise, dry with highs in the upper 50s to upper 60s
lower elevations and 40s to mid 50s in the high country.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday Night THROUGH Monday

A drier northwest flow will develop over the state Tuesday to help
keep shower activity generally confined to the northern mountains.
This dry period will generally persist through Wednesday, when some
weak moisture may bring back a few showers and thunderstorms over
the western mountains. High pressure over the desert southwest will
help to return dry conditions Thursday afternoon, though a wave
moving through Montana may flatten the ridge over the state
resulting in a slightly more moist zonal flow.

The high pressure over the desert southwest will amplify Friday
morning and afternoon with generally dry conditions anticipated into
next weekend. A few pop-up showers will be possible over the western
mountains at times, but widespread shower activity is not
anticipated.

Conditions will work to change on Sunday as an area of low pressure
moves over northern California and heads east-northeast. This system
will push additional moisture and instability over the state, with a
return of showers and thunderstorms over the western mountains and
valleys by Sunday afternoon and evening. Models attempt to show the
low pressure losing some muster as it rides along the strong area of
high pressure, but models do diverge on this solution, with some
models demonstrating the low pressure moving more slowly through the
desert southwest.

Overall, the warming trend will continue and strengthen under the
influence of the high pressure. Central and eastern basins will see
temperatures in the 80s by Thursday, with these warming temperatures
persisting through Monday. &&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

West of the Continental Divide...KJAC/KRKS/KPNA/KBPI Routes

Isolated to widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
will occur over northwest WY until 00Z along with the Southern
Sweetwater County area. Local MVFR cigs may occur in NW WY during
that time with partial mountain obscuration. Terminal forecasts
will have VFR conditions prevailing today and tonight with gusty
wind from late morning through early evening. Tuesday will see vfr
conds with only isolated showers along the continental divide.

East of the Continental Divide...KCPR/KCOD/KRIW/KWRL/KLND Routes

A cold front will push south the remainder of the day. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms will occur along and ahead of the front
with lingering showers behind the front. Local MVFR conditions may
occur with this activity along with partial mountain obscuration.
A gusty wind will also occur over many places today. Most showers
will be ending by 03Z. VFR conditions will prevail at the terminal
sites through the period with a gusty wind decreasing by 02Z.
Isolated showers will linger over and near the mountains on
Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Fire danger will remain low as green-up and seasonally cool
temperatures with elevated humidity levels continue across most of
Wyoming through Tuesday. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will
linger into the evening east of the divide as an upper level
disturbance and a couple of cold fronts move across the region.
Better chances for measurable rain will occur across northern
Wyoming. Wednesday through Friday will herald in the beginning of a
warming/drying trend with high temperatures reaching into the mid to
upper 80s by the end of the week. Winds through the end of the week
will largely remain at or below 15 mph for all locations.

&&

.RIW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PS
LONG TERM...Branham
AVIATION...PS
FIRE WEATHER...PS



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