Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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FXUS65 KRIW 032035
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
235 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...

ALL THE PARAMETERS ARE SETTING UP FOR AN ACTIVE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BACKED UP TO NEAR THE DIVIDE WITH
MOIST E-SE FLOW ALLOWING DEW POINTS TO GRADUALLY RISE INTO THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS MOST AREAS. ENOUGH CAPPING TO ALLOW MAX
HEATING TO OCCUR BEFORE CONVECTION IS ALLOWED TO FIRE. AT THE SAME
TIME...AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND JET STREAK IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES TOWARDS 00Z AND INTO THE NERN ZONES BETWEEN
03 AND 06Z. END RESULT SHOULD BE A LONG DURATION LATE SHOW WITH
PLENTY OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE DIVIDE. IN
ADDITION...ENOUGH SHEAR DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW
HAS PROMPTED A TORNADO WATCH FOR FREMONT...HOT
SPRINGS...WASHAKIE...NEUTRINO AND JONSON COUNTIES THROUGH 03Z
THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS LOOK RIPE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A
LARGER AREA MAINLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE BUT THE TORNADO WATCH TRUMPS
A SEVERE TSTM WATCH FOR NOW. AND OF COURSE WITH THE TSTMS WILL BE
THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN...FLASH FLOODING AND FURTHER RISING
RIVERS. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER IN THE NERN
ZONES INTO THE EARLY MORNING THURSDAY. AFTER SOME LOW CLOUDS AND
POTENTIAL FOG THURSDAY MORNING IN THESE AREAS...WE SHOULD HAVE
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE TSTMS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON IN ABOUT THE SAME AREA. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IS NO
APPARENT UPPER SUPPORT. HOWEVER...WE STILL HAVE THE EXPECTED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE SAME AREA COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND DRY PUNCH REDEVELOPING OVER THE RED DESERT WITH DRY SLY FLOW.
ADDED IN ISOLD SVR STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN ABOUT THE SAME
AREA. CURRENT SPC OUTLOOK AS OF THIS WRITING IS MARGINAL WITH SVR
CLIPPING NERN NEUTRINO AND SE JONSON.

.LONG TERM...BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE CLOSED LOW WILL BE OVER VEGAS WITH THE
ASSOCIATED SOUTHERLY DIFLUENT FLOW STILL INFLUENCING THE LIFT FOR
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY. AS THIS SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURE
DRAWS EVER CLOSER FROM THIS LOW...CLOUDINESS SHOULD INHIBIT SOLAR
INSULATION TO A DEGREE. THIS WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
LESS INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS. THE TROUGHINESS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AS IT WEAKENS AND SHEARS APART. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS
DUE TO THE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REESTABLISH ITSELF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POPS DECREASING AND
TEMPS WARMING BACK UP. THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO SET OFF MORE ISOLATED BUT MOSTLY TERRAIN DRIVEN
AFTERNOON CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
QUICKLY BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z OVER CENTRAL WYOMING AND HEAD
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WYOMING. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY LINGER PAST MIDNIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE BIGHORN MTS
AND JONSON COUNTY. ALTHOUGH ANY TERMINAL COULD BE IMPACTED BY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE BEST COVERAGE AND
STRONGEST ACTIVITY WILL BE EAST OF THE DIVIDE. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING. IN WAKE OF THE STORMS...EXPECTED
LOCAL FOG AND LOW CEILINGS AFTER O6Z...WITH PERHAPS WIDESPREAD
MVFR CEILINGS AND LOCAL FOG OVER NEUTRINO AND JONSON COUNTIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN  FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
WYOMING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE DISPATCH
AREA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
THE AREA EAST OF THE DIVIDE. OTHERWISE...SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WIND AND SMALL HAIL. ADDITIONALLY...PERIODS OF
MODERATE RAINFALL COULD ACCOMPANY DEVELOPING STORMS. SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE DISPATCH AREA TODAY.
OVERALL FIRE BEHAVIOR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW...OTHER THAN THE
POTENTIAL FOR ERRATIC WINDS AND LIGHTNING WITH THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR WYZ004>011-017-
018-020.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SKRBAC/LIPSON
LONG TERM....LIPSON
AVIATION...LIPSON
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON



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