Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000
FXUS61 KRNK 270852
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
352 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT OUR WEATHER THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS...ALONG WITH SOME
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A CLIPPER FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM EST TUESDAY...

NARROW AXIS OF PRECIP MOVING ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VA EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH SOME SNOW...BUT TEMPS RUNNING IN THE MID 30S WILL ONLY RESULT
IN A DUSTING AT MOST ON GRASSY SURFACES. UPSTREAM...NEXT SHORTWAVE
DIVING INTO KY WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS BY
MIDDAY. THIS WILL BRING A SHOT OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NC MTNS NWD
INTO SE WV. OVERALL...AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN 2 INCHES...BUT WILL
KEEP THE CURRENT ADVISORY FOR THE NC MTNS INTO GRAYSON GOING.

THIS WAVE WILL EXIT THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST AREAS CLEARING OUTSIDE
THE WRN SLOPES. THE FINAL PIECE OF ENERGY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.

THIS WAVE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE
UPSLOPE ZONES OF SE WV AS THE MAIN TRACK OF THE VORT IS FURTHER
NORTH. AN INCH OR TWO COULD FALL WITH THIS BUT NOT ADVISORY LEVELS.

IN ADDITION...MODELS SHOWING GOOD PRESSURE RISES WITH SUBSIDENCE
WITH THIS WAVE...THOUGH SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ORIENTATION AND 8H
WINDS NOT FAVORING A HIGH WIND EVENT. STILL COULD SEE A FEW HOURS
THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND ADJACENT AREAS
REACH 40 TO 45 MPH. WILL HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.

WILL BE MUCH COLDER TODAY IN THE MOUNTAINS...THANKS TO THE SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR HEADING IN WITH GUSTY WINDS. LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE 20S
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND INTO SE WV...TO AROUND 30 NEW RIVER
VALLEY...UPPER 30S ROANOKE...AND MID 40S SOUTHSIDE VA/NW NC PIEDMONT.

TONIGHT...WITH WINDS STAYING UP...SHOULD KEEP ENOUGH MIXING TO
PREVENT TEMPS FROM DROPPING REALLY FAR. STILL LOOKING AT TEENS WEST
TO LOWER 20S EAST...ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EST TUESDAY...

1029 MB SFC HIGH WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY.
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY...THUS
ENDING UPSLOPE SNOW FLURRIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL WARM
INTO THE UPPER 20S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S IN THE
SOUTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER WILL SHIFT
EAST OF OUR AREA...WHILE OUR NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM HEADS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WINDS WILL BACK AND INCREASE IN
SPEED. CLOUD COVER WILL START TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE A CHALLENGE
WITH WARM ADVECTION. FOLLOWED SUPERBLEND FOR LOWS WITH READINGS FROM
MID TEENS IN THE NORTHWEST VALLEYS TO MID AND UPPER 20S ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
COULD ALLOW FOR COOLER VALLEY MINIMUMS.

BY THURSDAY MORNING...THE LOW CENTER IS IN THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
TRAILING COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY. MOISTURE
ARRIVES EARLY ENOUGH IN THE FAR WEST TO ALLOW FOR LIGHT POPS FOR
SNOW...BEFORE BETTER POPS TO ARRIVE MIDDAY INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE WEST WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL VARY FROM THE MID 30S IN
THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE..UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW FLURRIES
EXPECTED FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS WITH BLUSTERY
NORTHWEST WINDS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE WEST OF AN INCH OR TWO
MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS. LOW
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 20 DEGREES IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EST TUESDAY...

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO MUCH BELOW THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...ALONG WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.

UPPER LEVELS WILL BE EVOLVING TO MORE OF A DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM.
THE LATEST INDICATIONS POINT TO A COLDER MORE AMPLIFIED EASTERN TROF
DEVELOPING AS PER THE ECMWF...AND SPLIT FLOW OUT WEST WITH A RIDGE
FOR THE PACIFIC NW AND A CUTOFF LOW REGENERATING OVER THE BAJA
PENINSULA.

THE SNOW SHOWERS AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY. 1036
MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FOR SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST SUNDAY. MOISTURE AHEAD AND ALONG THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING VERY STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS TO USHER IN A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR AND COLD
TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.  THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH THIS MESSAGE AND NAEFS ANOMALIES NOW SUPPORT THE GFS
TREND TOWARD THIS SOLUTION SO CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN THIS COLD
OUTBREAK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY...

DEEP COASTAL LOW PRESSURE AREA THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS TAF VALID
CYCLE. THE MAIN EFFECTS OF THIS STORM WILL BE FOR THE BIG CITIES
IN THE NORTHEAST. FOR US...WE WILL DEAL WITH A COUPLE OF BANDS OF
SNOW...A DEFORMATION ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW
IMPACTING THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE PIEDMONT INCLUDING
LYH/DAN...WHILE IN THE WEST IS A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE
TRACKING SSE FROM THE OH/TN VALLEY TOWARD EASTERN TN/WESTERN
NC...THAT WILL MAINLY IMPACT EASTERN TN/FAR SOUTHWEST VA/NORTHWEST
NC OVERNIGHT/EARLY TUE. THIS WOULD PRINCIPALLY IMPACT TNB...BUT
COULD IMPACT LWB/BLF/BCB TO SOME EXTENT...SO HAVE INCLUDED -SN
WITH IFR- LIFR CIGS AND MVFR- IFR VSBYS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. IN
ADDITION...THERE WILL BE MVFR-IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST MOST
OF THE NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN WV...WITH MVFR CIGS REMAINING IN PLACE
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE.
WINDS NOW NW IN ALL AREAS WITH SPEEDS 8-12KTS AND GUSTS 20-22KTS
MANY SITES. WINDS SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE
COASTAL LOW INTENSIFIES TO 9-13KTS WITH GUSTS 17-25KTS. AS THE LOW
PULLS NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE DAY TUE...WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE...BUT AT LEAST LOW END GUSTS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE A QUIET DAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TAF LOCATIONS. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM
ARRIVES ON THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CIGS AND
VSBYS...WITH A CHANCE FOR -SHRA...-SHSN IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ015.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK/MBS
AVIATION...PM/RAB


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