Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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094
FXUS61 KRNK 110518
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1218 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring a brief period of fair weather to the
Appalachians and central mid Atlantic region to start the
work week. However, low pressure moving through the Great Lakes
region will push another surge of very cold air into the region
on Tuesday with blustery conditions and snow showers in the
mountains.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 655 PM EST Sunday...

No changes to the forecast at this time.

Generally quiet weather expected through Monday. A short wave
will bring some clouds and blustery conditions to the mountains and
maybe a flurry near the Greenbrier valley of WV overnight into
tomorrow. Clouds will dissipate Monday morning and temperatures
will warm up a bit but stay below normal. Lows tonight will
generally be in the low to mid 20s, with highs Monday in the
mid/upper 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM EST Sunday...

Northern stream will dominate forecast for mid-week with jet
stream providing a surge of cold air Tuesday into Wednesday.
Upper level disturbance associated with the onset of cold air
advection will produce snow showers over the mountains. Again
the main track of the surface low and upper vort will tend to
take best lift northwest of our forecast area but enough
west/northwest upslope to bring a couple inches to the mountains
of Greenbrier with an inch or less as far south as the NC High
Country though again track favors less south of the WV/VA
border. Flurries could reach as far east as the Blue ridge,
especially heading into Tuesday night as a shot of some very
cold pours across the Great Lakes resulting in a plethora of
downstream low level moisture which will get lifted over the
central Appalachians.

Temperatures will take a plunge Tuesday and Tuesday night as
surge of cold air will send lows Tuesday night into the teens
areawide, complimented by 850MB temps of -14 to -16C. There is
potential for wind chill values to reach zero to minus 5 in the
he mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 340 PM EST Sunday...

Upper air pattern is forecast to remain amplified with a cold
upper level trough over eastern North America through Friday.
Embedded short waves passing through the general flow pattern
will result in clouds and potential for mountain snow showers
and flurries. Temperatures will favor the colder side of normal
from until Friday...trending back closer to normal for the
weekend as the upper flow becomes more zonal.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1215 AM EST Monday...

Short wave crossing through West Virginia and Pennsylvania
overnight will bring some MVFR clouds to the western slopes of
central Appalachians early this morning. Do not expect anything
more then VFR at KBLF or KLWB with medium confidence. Winds will
be gusty from the west tonight in the mountains. Gusts up to 25
knots are possible at KBLF, KLWB and KBCB. Any clouds west of
the Blue Ridge will dissipate by mid morning with VFR
conditions all sites for the rest of the day. Some mid level
warm advection and moisture will bring mid and high clouds to
the Mid Atlantic region in the afternoon. Winds will also
diminish during the afternoon.

Late in the TAF period...ceilings will begin to lower as a
stronger short wave approaches out of the Ohio Valley. Expect
ceilings at KLWB and KBLF to remain VFR until after 06Z with
medium confidence.

Extended Discussion...

The more prominent clipper moves in Tuesday with the passage of
a cold front and gusty winds behind it. MVFR to IFR snow showers
are expected west of the Blue Ridge Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Weak high pressure builds in Wednesday followed by another
weaker clipper Thursday. Overall mainly VFR during the Wed-Fri
time frame.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...AMS/MBS



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