Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 310740
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
240 AM CDT Fri Oct 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 239 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

North winds are already beginning to increase this morning across the
region, as the coldest airmass of the season so far starts to move
south into the area.  Temperatures will continue to fall through the
remainder of the morning.  By afternoon, some locations may see enough sun
to (temporarily) halt the fall, or perhaps even warm a degree or
two, though anything above the mid 40s would be quite optimistic.
For most of the area, daily highs have already been met.

As cloud cover clears and the core of the Canadian surface high
settles south into the region, expect temperatures to absolutely
tank this evening.  Readings should quickly fall into the 30s by 7
or 8 PM, and fall into the upper 20s between 10 and midnight.  Low
temperatures will bottom out early Saturday morning into the low to
mid 20s.  It is important to note that in some localized areas,
particularly protected valleys, morning low temps in the teens are
entirely possible, if not probable.

Needless to say, this will end the growing season across the area in
one fell swoop. The Freeze Warning will continue unchanged.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

As the surface high begins to move south and east of the area, winds
will become southerly on Saturday, allowing temperatures to recover
into the upper 40s and low 50s.  A continued warming trend is then
expected for Sunday, with highs ranging from the low 50s over the
eastern Ozarks to around 60 across southeastern Kansas.

Gusty southwest winds are then expected for much of Monday as the
next storm system of interest approaches. Widespread rain and a few
thunderstorms associated with a slow moving front will move into the
area late Monday, with rain continuing for much of the day on
Tuesday and Tuesday night.  This system will be able to tap into
some subtropical moisture from the eastern Pacific, which will
contribute to a healthy rainfall across the area.  Current
indications are for a widespread 1.5 to 2 inches of rain by the time
precipitation comes to an end Wednesday morning.


Dry and seasonable weather is then expected for the tail end of the
extended forecast, with another system perhaps approaching for late
in the workweek and/or next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1114 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Pilots can expect VFR conditions for much of tonight then lowering
ceilings toward morning.

Surface high pressure will build southward into the region tonight
and Friday. A secondary cold front will plunge through the area
early Friday bringing a period of MVFR to low VFR ceilings and
increasing northerly winds.

Surface winds will gusts over 20 kts at times Friday before
subsiding Friday evening. Low level wind shear will impact the
area tonight.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FREEZE WARNING from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Saturday FOR
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FREEZE WARNING from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Saturday FOR
     KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Foster






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