Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSGX 201031
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
230 AM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST
THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING A WARMING TREND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT BASIN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NEVADA AND CALIFORNIA FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WILL
BRING COOLING AND GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS FOR THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERTS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH SLOW WARMING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING QUICKLY INLAND THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST STATES TODAY WILL BRING A BRIEF RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW
WITH PATCHY STRATUS. BEHIND THIS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL STRENGTHEN OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING SLIGHT WARMING
TODAY...AND GREATER WARMING FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

A LITTLE COOLER FOR WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BEGINS TO
WEAKEN. FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO
THE NORTH ON AN INLAND TRACK WITH THE GFS REMAINING LESS AMPLIFIED
AND THE ECMWF MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE 00Z ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN HAVING TRENDED A LITTLE MORE INLAND WITH THE TRACK. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD BRING COOLING WITH A BRIEF RETURN OF ONSHORE
FLOW WITH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS.

BEHIND THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT BASIN WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR THE COASTAL
FOOTHILLS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH SLOW WARMING.

&&

.AVIATION...
200400Z...VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED TO
LOCALLY BROKEN LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. WHEN/WHERE THEY DEVELOP...LOW
CLOUD BASES WILL BE AROUND 2500-3000 FEET MSL MOST LIKELY BETWEEN
06-12Z. SCATTERED CLOUDS SATURDAY...THEN CIGS OF AROUND 2500 FEET
MSL APPEAR MORE LIKELY AFTER 02Z SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...
201015Z...FEW-SCT CLOUDS WITH BASES 2500-3500 FT MSL WEST OF THE
MTNS AND AREAS OF 2-4 SM VIS IN BR/HZ IN THE VALLEYS THROUGH 16Z.
SCT TO LOCALLY BKN STRATUS WITH BASES 2000-2500 FT MSL DEVELOPING
WEST OF THE MTNS TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER 21/06Z. OTHERWISE VARIABLE
CLOUDS AOA 15000 FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH SUN MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
220 AM...LOCAL COMBINED SEAS OF 8-9 FEET POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE
NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
220 AM...A LARGE...LONG PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BUILD
TODAY AND BRING ELEVATED SURF AND STRONGER RIP CURRENTS LATE
TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...MORNING HIGH TIDES AROUND
7 FEET COULD CONTRIBUTE TO MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW THROUGH TUESDAY. SEE
THE BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT FOR DETAILS...LAXCFWSGX.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR ORANGE
     COUNTY COASTAL AREAS AND SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...SS










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