Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

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557
FXUS66 KSGX 251043
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service San Diego CA
343 AM PDT MON JUL 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level disturbance moving westward off the northern Baja
coast will draw mid level monsoonal moisture into far Southern
California with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms over
southern San Diego County today and the mountains for this
afternoon and evening. Slowly warmer inland for Tuesday through
Friday as high pressure aloft strengthens slightly. For Friday
through next weekend...an influx of monsoonal moisture will bring
cooling for next weekend...and a slight chance of afternoon and
early evening thunderstorms...mainly near the mountains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

The large convective complex that was over northwest Mexico early
Sunday morning generated a mesoscale convective vortex. It moved
slowly westward across northern Baja and is now centered near the
northern Baja coast. On the north side of the circulation center
it is drawing mid level monsoonal moisture across far northern
Baja and towards far Southern California. Showers have developed
in this band of moisture with thunderstorms in northern Baja
adjacent to the far northwest Gulf of California. A slight chance
of showers and thunderstorms has been added to southern San Diego
County this morning and extended northward along the mountains to
the San Bernardino Mountains for this afternoon and early evening.
The cloud cover from this mid level moisture may bring some
slight cooling today...more to the south and less to the south.

Otherwise...some slight inland warming is expected for Tuesday
through Friday as high pressure aloft strengthens slightly. A
greater influx of monsoonal moisture is possible for Friday
through Sunday with a slight chance of afternoon thunderstorms...
mainly near the mountains...along with some inland cooling for
next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
250945Z...Stratus with bases 900-1300 ft MSL will slowly fill in
along the coast and move up to 10-15 miles through 14Z. Local vis 2-
4 SM possible over higher coastal terrain. Stratus and vis
restrictions clearing most areas by 16Z. Stratus will return to the
coastal airports after 26/05Z with bases 1000-1500 ft MSL.

SCT-BKN clouds at/above 10000 ft MSL from earlier convection will
continue to move west over the region today. Virga and light
showers/thunderstorms are possible over portions of San Diego County
later this morning through the afternoon, and over the mountains and
eastern portions of the inland empire and high desert this afternoon
and early evening.

&&

.MARINE...
There is a small chance of thunderstorms with cloud-to-water
lightning late this morning into the early afternoon, mainly over
southern portions of the coastal waters. No hazardous marine weather
is expected this evening through Friday.


&&

.BEACHES...
There is a small chance of lighting at the San Diego County
beaches this morning into the early afternoon. Confidence is low
at this time, but should lightning look more likely later this
morning a Beach Hazards Statement may be needed.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
An upper level disturbance moving westward off the northern Baja
coast will draw mid level monsoonal moisture into far Southern
California with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms over
southern San Diego County today and the mountains for this
afternoon and evening with a few dry lightning strikes possible.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

&&

.SGX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CA...None.
PZ...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...17
AVIATION/MARINE...SS



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