Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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FXCA62 TJSJ 281852
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
252 PM AST MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
REMAIN DOMINATING THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND LOWER THAN NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTH. TUTT TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ACROSS THE TROPICAL
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND WILL APPROACH THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. THIS
ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND A UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF THE
AREA. THIS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS
THE REGION NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SAME TROUGH WILL PLAY AN
IMPORTANT ROLE ON THE FUTURE TRACK OF THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
THIS AFTERNOON NEAR 10 NORTH LATITUDE AND 33 WEST LONGITUDE. PER
LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE
IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

IT IS TOO EARLY TO PRECISE JUST HOW MUCH OR EVEN IF THIS WAVE WILL
AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA AS A WAVE OR TROPICAL CYCLONE...IF AT ALL.
THERE IS JUST TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME AND THERE IS GREAT
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GLOBAL MODELS. WE ARE OBSERVING THE TROPICAL
WAVE CLOSELY AND ITS EVOLUTION...BUT IT IS JUST TOO EARLY YET TO
PRECISE HOW OR EVEN IF THIS WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA. STAY TUNED
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VCTS NEAR TJPS AND TJMZ THROUGH AT LEAST 28/22Z.
ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE...CENTERED
OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC...CONTINUES TO SLOWLY RETREAT
NORTH. AS A RESULT RESULT...SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET THROUGH
AT LEAST FRIDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  76  88  77  89 /  20  30  20  20
STT  78  89  78  88 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

10/71











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