Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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FXCA62 TJSJ 100957
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
557 AM AST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. A DEEP POLAR LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST
ATLANTIC ERODING THE RIDGE DURING THE WEEKEND. AT THE SAME
TIME...AN EASTERLY PERTURBATION/TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
ISLANDS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING FAVORING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOOPS OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW A DRY AND STABLE
AIR MASS DOMINATING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN REGION. AT LOW LEVELS...
LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FROM TIME TO TIME. AT THIS TIME...THE DRIEST DAY
OF THE REST OF THE WEEK APPEARS TO BE ON THURSDAY...WHEN PRECIPITABLE
WATER DROPS BELOW ONE INCH. BESIDE OF THE LIGHT TRADE WIND SHOWERS
AT NIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNING...THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

A WETTER AND UNSTABLE PATTERN IS FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS RIDGE COLLAPSES AND A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. GOOD UPPER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PROXIMITY
OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OPERATIONAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK AS A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH/SHEARLINE APPROACHES PR AND THE USVI FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...-SHRA/SHRA CAN DEVELOP
OVER WESTERN PR BETWEEN 17Z-22Z IMPACTING MAINLY THE FLYING AREA OF
JBQ/JMZ WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE FM THE
ESE AT 10-20 KNOTS...SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFTER 14Z.

&&

.MARINE...ALTHOUGH THE NORTH SWELL HAS PEAKED...ADDITIONAL PULSES
OF LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND LOCAL PASSAGES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD
TO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS AND LIFE THREATENING CURRENTS ALONG
THE ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY AND THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY AND THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENT WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  74  87  74 /  30  10  10  20
STT  84  74  84  74 /  30  10  10  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR CULEBRA-
     NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-
     SOUTHEAST-WESTERN INTERIOR.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM AST THIS MORNING FOR CULEBRA-
     MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-SAN
     JUAN AND VICINITY-SOUTHEAST-WESTERN INTERIOR.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM AST THIS MORNING FOR MAYAGUEZ
     AND VICINITY-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHWEST-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 AM AST THIS MORNING FOR SOUTHWEST-
     VIEQUES.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAYAGUEZ AND
     VICINITY.

VI...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR ST.
     THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM AST THIS MORNING FOR ST.
     THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM AST THIS MORNING FOR ST.
     THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 AM AST THIS MORNING FOR ST CROIX.

AM...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT
     10 NM.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM AST THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT
     10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM AST THIS MORNING FOR ANEGADA
     PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     FROM 10 NM TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT
     10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT
     10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 AM AST THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS OF SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM AST THURSDAY FOR ATLC WATERS OF
     PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

&&

$$

13/11


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