Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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FXCA62 TJSJ 071902
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
302 PM AST TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE PASSED TO OUR SOUTH AND BRING A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS. UPPER TROUGH TO THE
NORTH OF HISPANIOLA WILL MEANDER CLOSE TO THE AREA FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. SAHARAN DUST AND DRY AIR WILL RETURN TO THE LOCAL AREA
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE THAT OCCURRED TODAY
CAUSED SOME VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THE AMOUNTS HOWEVER WERE NOT TOO
SIGNIFICANT...WHICH IT WAS EXPECTED. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE
INDICATED IN THE 07/12Z RAOB WAS ONLY 1.49 INCHES...WHICH IS STILL
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS IT IS AT THE 25TH
PERCENTILE.

LATEST MODEL DATA SHOWS THAT THE SAHARAN DUST IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN LATE TONIGHT AND PREVAIL UNTIL THURSDAY. KEEPING MOST THE
LOCAL AREA WARM AND DRY WITH HAZE. SOME MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE
LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY FROM THE NORTHEAST...THIS MAY CAUSE SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE UPPER AIR
PATTERNS DO NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR SOME GOOD
INSTABILITY...THEREFORE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
BRIEF OVER ANY ONE POINT AND LIGHT TO SOME MODERATE SHOWERS.

OVER THE WEEKEND...A TROPICAL WAVE LOOKS TO APPROACH THE LOCAL
AREA ON SUNDAY...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE ONCE AGAIN IT WILL BE TO OUR
SOUTH. NEVERTHELESS...SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED AND A
FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. VCSH
FOR TJMZ THROUGH 07/22Z BUT THEN LITTLE TO NO RAIN EXPECTED
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE EAST AT ABOUT
10-15 KNOTS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS UNTIL 07/23Z...THEN
WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AS WINDS WILL BE UP
TO 20 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 6 FEET OVERNIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS ARE
SLOWLY IMPROVING FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  88  79  90 /  20  20  20  20
STT  79  89  79  90 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

15/25



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