Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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FXCA62 TJSJ 060242
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1042 PM AST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...PASSING SHOWERS CONTINUED TONIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF
OF PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THESE SHOWERS
WERE MOVING QUICKLY...THEREFORE...LITTLE RAINFALL ACCUMULATION WAS
OBSERVED. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO FORECAST GRIDS. FORECAST IS ON
TRACK WITH ONGOING WEATHER SITUATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. PASSING -SHRA EMBEDDED ON TRADE WINDS WILL CREATE
MAINLY VCSH AT TJSJ/TIST THRU THE OVERNIGHT. THE 06/00Z TJSJ UPPER
AIR SOUNDING INDICATED EAST WINDS AT 15-20 KTS NEAR THE SFC...AND
30-34 KTS AROUND 15 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FIRE WEATHER WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH
COASTAL PLAIN FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
REFER TO LATEST FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE FOR LATEST INFORMATION.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 PM AST THU MAR 5 2015/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH PRES WILL MAINTAIN A TIGHT
PRES GRADIENT WITH BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...OTHER THAN A MOISTURE SURGE SUN NIGHT-MON ASSOCIATED
WITH A TRADE WIND SURGE...BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE 7-DAY FCST PERIOD UNDER
BUILDING/STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. RED FLAG CONDITIONS WERE MET
TODAY AT CAMP SANTIAGO AND APPEAR MORE THAN LIKELY AGAIN TOMORROW.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 48 HRS. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AOA 16-KT DURING DAYTIME HOURS.

MARINE...WINDS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN SOME ON SAT.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL REMAIN AT NEAR 20-KT THROUGH THE WEEKEND
THEN STRENGTHEN 20-25 KT EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS 6-8 FT.

FIRE WEATHER...MIN_RH DROPPED TO 33% AT CAMP SANTIAGO TODAY WITH
EAST WINDS OF 20 MPH. THUS..RED FLAG CONDITIONS WERE MET.
CONDITIONS LOOK DRIER TOMORROW AND ALSO LIKELY TO START OUT DRIER
WITH LESS CLOUDS THAN TODAY. HENCE...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE SOUTH COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  74  87  74  87 /  10  20  20  10
STT  74  86  75  85 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 10 AM AST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH COASTAL PLAINS AND MONA ISLAND.

VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AST MONDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT
     10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

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