Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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FXCA62 TJSJ 300216
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1016 PM AST SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...QUIET NIGHT HAS PREVAILED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUE DOMINATING THE LOCAL
REGION. NO CHANGES TO SHORT TERM GRIDS NEEDED AS FORECAST IS ON
TRACK WITH ONGOING WEATHER SITUATION.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SCT/BKN LAYERS AROUND FL080 WILL CLEAR AROUND
MIDNIGHT AST OVER MAINLAND PR. VCSH POSSIBLE BETWEEN 30/18-22Z IN AND
AROUND TJMZ/TJBQ. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT...WINDS BLO
FL100 WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10-15 KTS...WITH
SEA BREEZES AFTER 30/14Z.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM AST SUN MAR 29 2015/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN ON MONDAY THEN COLLAPSE
QUICKLY AT THE END OF THE WEEK AS A TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE
ATLC INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN.

DISCUSSION...MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUE BENEATH
FLAT RIDGE. MOISTURE ADVECTION BEGINS WED UNDER SOUTHEAST FLOW
AND WEAKENING RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. MOISTURE
SURGES THU INTO SAT AS HEIGHTS FALL QUICKLY IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING MID-UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ATLC INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN.
IT SHOULD BE QUITE ACTIVE THU NIGHT AND FRI WITH T-STORMS LIKELY
AS H5 TEMPS COOL TO -9C AND LOCAL AREA BECOMES UNDER UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ON RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN 80-KT 250 MB JET STREAK.
SOME HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE FRI WHEN BEST MOISTURE AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND LIFT ARE EXPECTED BUT ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS
TOO DRY FOR ANY SIG FLOODING. WX CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMROVE NEXT
SUN.

AVIATION...CONT VFR WI ISOLD SHRA...MOST SHRA WL NOT LWR CONDS.
VRBL WIND BLO FL100 UNDER 15 KT...THEN E 8-15 KT ON MON.

MARINE...WINDS AROUND 15 KT AND SEAS 3-5 FT. WINDS STRENGTHEN UP
TO 20 KT THU AND FRI WITH T-STORMS LIKELY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  75  86  75  87 /  10  10  10  20
STT  73  84  73  84 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

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