Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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FXCA62 TJSJ 240835
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
435 AM AST THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD TROUGH ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WRN ATLC INTO
GREATER ANTILLES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXPECTED TO BUILD MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...WITH SHOWERS OBSERVED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL PUERTO RICO. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOWER 80S
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY...AS A
ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN...
CREATING AND MAINTAINING OVERALL SUBSIDENCE AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
ALOFT. HOWEVER...DUE TO A WEAK SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW...BETTER
LOCAL SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED...RESULTING IN SOME
DIURNALLY INDUCED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVAILS...WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

GFS AND WRF CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE FRIDAY
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SLIGHT INCREASE IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A SERIES OF TROUGHS MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS ALONG WITH LOCAL
AND DIURNAL EFFECTS WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCES OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION INLAND FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING GRADUALLY BUILDS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AS TROUGHS
DEEPEN OVR THE CNTRL ATLC AND ERN CONUS...BRINGING ONCE AGAIN DRY
AND STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS UNTIL 24/11Z...ESE
WINDS AT AROUND 10 KT THEREAFTER WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS. VCSH
POSSIBLE FOR TJMZ AND TJBQ BETWEEN 24/17Z AND 24/22Z WITH CLOUDS
INCREASING CAUSING MTN OBSCURATIONS AND CIGS AT AROUND FL030-040
ACROSS WESTERN PR.

&&

.MARINE...BROAD TROUGH NORTH OF THE AREA WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY
MAINTAINING A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE
WINDS. MODERATE NORTH SWELLS WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE ATLC COASTAL
WATERS SATURDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  79  90  79 /  10  10  20  10
STT  85  79  85  79 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

25/23




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