Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 231040
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
440 AM MDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH LATE
WEEK. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED STRATUS CLOUDS CURRENTLY REMAIN OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE AIRMASS BECOMES
INCREASINGLY STABLE UNDER A BUILDING RIDGE. THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY DECREASE AND SHIFT EAST OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. AFTER THAT...DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WARM AIR SETTLES
IN UNDER THE RIDGE. THE PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY TOMORROW AND THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL START TO SHIFT EAST...BUT A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
FOLLOW...CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN WILL RESULT IN THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM CARVING SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST ON FRIDAY. QUICK
LOOK AT THE 06Z GFS JUST COMING IN SHOWS IT BECOMING MORE IN LINE
WITH THE 00Z ECMWF...WHICH ARE BOTH SLOWER THAN THE 00Z GFS. DO
PREFER THE SLOWER PROGRESSION AS STRONG AMPLIFICATION MORE LIKELY TO
RESULT IN THE SYSTEM CLOSING OFF FARTHER WEST. AS SUCH...TRENDED
POPS SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD FOR FRIDAY AS MIDLEVEL MOISTURE IS JUST
STARTING TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY NOT
BECOME WIDESPREAD UNTIL LATE SATURDAY WHEN THE LOW APPROACHES THE
AREA...CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL WORK
THEIR WAY INTO THE AREA...AND SNOW LEVELS COULD BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 9-
10KFT SUNDAY TOWARDS THE TAIL END OF THE STORM.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY DRAINAGE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE 18-20Z TIMEFRAME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
SUBSTANTIAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 8-
14 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE NORTH...AND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...IN ADVANCE OF A POTENT STORM
SYSTEM WHICH WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THIS INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WILL
RESULT IN GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN VALLEYS. WIDESPREAD
WETTING RAINS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES
THROUGH THE AREA...WITH SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE ABOVE 9000
FEET LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/SEAMAN


FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)


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