Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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FXUS65 KSLC 252208

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
408 PM MDT Sat Mar 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...An upper trough will move east of Utah tonight. High
pressure will return briefly on Sunday, followed by another storm
system for early in the upcoming week.


.SHORT TERM (Thru 12z Tue)...The axis of the upper trof is
overhead this afternoon and precip has been widespread across the
northwestern CWA but is now starting to taper off. It is finally
filling in across the central and swrn portions as the flow flips
around to westerly.

Expect precip to taper off this eve as the trof exits the area
with some orographic showers lingering until about 06z or so.
Snow levels have been hovering around 6000-7000 ft this aftn but
all mtn routes have been running just wet so far today even up
around 8000 ft. The snow could begin to stick after dark but don`t
expect much in the way of accumulation between sunset and when it
ends so have gone ahead and cancelled the Winter Weather

The upstream ridge moves into the Great Basin tonight and across
our CWA on Sun. Models keep some low level moisture around across
the north on Sun so expect some lingering cloudiness across the
northwest but otherwise it should be a dry day.

The ridge shifts east Sun night as the next trof moves inland with
precip chances increasing across the north overnight becoming
widespread on Mon. This next system is forecast to split a bit
more than today`s but the widespread precip should last into Mon
night in a wrap around environment.

Snow levels will be once again around 6000-7000 ft and do not
expect much impact to travel over the passes during the daytime
hours as roads should stay mainly wet. This could change Mon night
where precip persists.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z Tuesday)...Storm circulation will track
across northern Arizona Tuesday with the associated trough axis
over eastern Utah by midday. A somewhat moist wrap around
northerly flow will continue down across the western valleys
Tuesday morning but as the trough axis shifts eastward drier air
will filter into the western valleys while a chance of showers
will continue in the mountains and farther east.

Canyon winds may become an issue across the north-south oriented
canyons in Washington County Tuesday night into Wednesday as the
700 mb winds increase to 40-45 kts combined with an increased
surface gradient.

Have leaned towards the GFS model after this point as the EC
ensemble is in closer agreement with the GFS and the GFS ensemble.
This places the next storm to come into the CWA a little slower
than previously forecast. Have removed the PoPs for Wednesday
night CWA wide and lowered them for Thursday, especially across
southern Utah. This storm is expected to be somewhat stronger
dynamically with colder support aloft and a fairly good looking
700mb baroclinic zone moving across the CWA Thursday night into
Friday. As it stands now the coldest portion of the storm will
move across central and southern Utah with snow down to the valley
floors of west central and southwest Utah excluding Dixie.
Showers are likely to linger over the mountains and southern Utah
Friday night. Dry Saturday with temperatures rebounding to near or
slightly above normal.


.AVIATION...Cigs are expected to lift at SLC terminal from MVFR
conditions through about 00-01Z to around BKN060 between 01-06Z.
There is a 30 percent chance that cigs will remain MVFR through
02-03Z. Winds should remain northwest through this evening, but
there is a 30 percent chance winds will turn southeast by 02-04Z.




SHORT TERM...Wilensky

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