Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 141155
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
455 AM MST SUN FEB 14 2016

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MILD AND WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER
THE REGION WITH A STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. PACIFIC
MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW. WINDS ARE LIKELY TO CYCLE UP AND DOWN THROUGH THE
PERIOD, WITH PEAKS OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON, MONDAY MORNING, AND
TUESDAY MORNING. WIND GUSTS MAY REACH UP TO 45 MPH ACROSS NORTH-
CENTRAL MONTANA WITH EACH PASSING WAVE...EXCEEDING 60 MPH ALONG
THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. THESE WINDS CAN CAUSE DIFFICULT DRIVING
IN CROSS WINDS. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE AN ADEQUATE MECHANISM IN PLACE TO MIX STRONGER WINDS ABOVE THE
FRICTION LAYER DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THUS, WILL TO HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS AND ADVISE SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS TO
MONITOR CLOSELY. PRECIPITATION SPREADS THROUGH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST MONTANA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW
LEVELS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN GENERALLY AROUND 5-6 KFT.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 5-10 INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES, KINGS HILL PASS AND INTO THE MADISON RANGE OF
SOUTHERN MADISON AND GALLATIN COUNTY. PN

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A FLAT UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE AREA. WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY, ALONG WITH A PLUME OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE POSITION, WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED SNOW OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND ISOLATED SNOW OVER THE
BELTS AND SNOWIES. THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES A BIT ON WEDNESDAY IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROF APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. MODELS IN
FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT BRINGING THE UPPER TROF TO WESTERN MONTANA
THURSDAY. A RATHER DEEP SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST ALBERTA WILL
TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALLOWING FOR INCREASING WINDS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND LIMITING ANY PRECIPITATION TO JUST ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE PLAINS. THE UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE AREA
FRIDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS. FALLING SURFACE PRESSURE ACROSS CANADA ON
FRIDAY SETS UP A LEE SIDE TROF THAT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO REMAIN GUSTY
INTO THE EVENING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES A BIT SATURDAY BUT
SHORT WAVE ENERGY THAT ONCE AGAIN FLATTENS THE RIDGE WILL BRING
ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE PLAINS. BY SUNDAY, THE RIDGE REBUILDS
STRONGLY OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETS UP
OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S, THE EXCEPTION BEING THE SOUTHWEST
VALLEYS WHERE IT WILL REMAIN N THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1155Z.
A DISTURBANCE ALOFT EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRING INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY, A
CHINOOK ARCH HAS DEVELOPED IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES FROM KCTB TO
KGTF. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY AFTER 16Z.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND OVER
ADJACENT PLAINS. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF SHOWERS. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED AT TIMES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  52  38  55  38 /  10  20  70  30
CTB  50  37  52  32 /  10  20  50  30
HLN  46  36  49  35 /  20  30  50  40
BZN  41  30  44  30 /  20  30  50  50
WEY  33  26  36  28 /  40  50  80  40
DLN  42  35  47  34 /  10  20  30  20
HVR  51  32  48  28 /  10  20  60  20
LWT  44  33  44  30 /  50  20  80  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR MTZ009-
048.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS


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