Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 291117
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
517 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A GRADUAL SHIFT TOWARDS A QUIETER...WARMER
AND DRYER WEATHER PATTERN WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP OVER THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WIDESPREAD LOW/MID CLOUDS OVER THE REGION
TODAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL...ALONG WITH ALLOWING FOR
A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN
AND SOUTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS. FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE REGION WILL
BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN. THUS THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
DECREASING THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE A
TOUCH WARMER THAN TODAY...BUT JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL YET.
ON SUNDAY...EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION...ALONG
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THIS WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO
RISE TO NEAR NORMAL IN MANY AREAS. BRUSDA

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL
BEGIN WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER ALBERTA AND AND LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF
THE ZONES OVER NEVADA AND UTAH. THIS WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS OVER MOST
OF THE CWA QUITE DRY WITH MOISTURE OVER ONLY EXTREME SOUTHWEST
MONTANA. THIS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE AIRMASS DRY INTO
TUESDAY. HOWEVER, THE SOUTHWEST ZONES BECOME SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AND WITH THE MOISTURE JUST TO THE SOUTH, ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT A LOW PRESSURE TROF WILL BE MOVING
OVER THE WEST COAST LATE THURSDAY. HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL ALOFT
AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL BRING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOISTEN FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE TROF APPROACHES
AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT. THE AIRMASS WILL BE
TRENDING WARMER UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. TEMPERATURES AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS AND
TREND HIGHER TO 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMALS BY THURSDAY. ZELZER

&&

.AVIATION...UPDATED 1114Z.

CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA REMAIN UNDER LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WITH
LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE CAUSING MAINLY VFR CIGS. AFTERNOON
HEATING WILL CAUSE WEAK INSTABILITY AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS MAINLY
OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  52  34  56  35 /  10  10  20   0
CTB  51  32  56  34 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  56  36  57  36 /  20  20  20  10
BZN  53  34  54  33 /  20  10  20  10
WEY  47  28  46  27 /  30  30  20  10
DLN  51  34  54  33 /  30  20  20  10
HVR  56  36  60  36 /   0  10  10   0
LWT  49  34  51  33 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS


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