Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KTFX 240451
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1050 PM MDT Thu Oct 23 2014

UPDATE TO AVIATION

.UPDATE...Strong and moist southwest to westerly flow aloft
continues over Montana tonight. Have updated in conjunction with the
Missoula office to increase PoPs to categorical along the entire
length of the Continental Divide. This does not significantly affect
the overall forecast, but the increased chance for showers did spill
over the divide enough to raise weather wording in the Helena Valley
to scattered showers rather than isolated. Strong winds along the
Rocky Mountain Front have not materialized yet, and I am not overly
optimistic that they will. However, the warning will be allowed to
continue overnight as models still suggest that stronger winds aloft
should move over the region after midnight. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 450Z.
VFR conditions are expected to continue for the next 24 hours.
Widespread moisture ahead the next system will combine with
southwesterly winds to create mid and high level clouds over much of
the area. Winds are expected to remain breezy across the area with
locations along the rocky mountain front experiencing the strongest
winds. Some isolated showers may develop over the higher terrain...
however downsloping winds should keep moisture away from TAF sites.
Suk

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 257 PM MDT Thu Oct 23 2014/
Tonight through Saturday...A brisk westerly flow aloft will
continue to reside over the region over through Friday. As a
result...strong winds are expected over the Rocky Mountain Front
later this evening through mid morning Friday. Thus the high wind
watch has been changed to a high wind warning for the Rocky
Mountain Front. Additionally...periods of showers will continue to
affect areas near the divide. Precip east of the divide will be
quite limited...other than a passing light shower at best.
Temperatures on Friday will be a few degrees cooler than
today...as a weak Pacific cool front moves through the region
during the morning hours on Friday. For Saturday...a southwesterly
flow aloft redevelops over the region. This will allow for warmer
air to move back northward into the region. Afternoon highs will
climb back up into the mid 60s in many areas over Central and
Southwest Montana. Little to no precipitation is expected on
Saturday...with the best area to see any showers being the
northern Rocky Mountain Front. Brusda

Saturday Night through Thursday...Models continue in good agreement
advertising another upper level low pressure trough moving in
Saturday night and Sunday while at the same time surface high
pressure over central Canada pushes some cooler air south into
Montana. Best chances for precipitation appear to be limited to the
west and southwest mountains, and temperatures will drop about 10
degrees Monday. As trough exits to the east Tuesday, weak high
pressure will build over the area, however, it appears several
smaller systems embedded in the flow will be working their way
through keeping skies mostly cloudy with cooler temperatures and
periods of gusty winds through the remainder of the period. Chances
of precipitation remain low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  44  58  39  65 /  10  10  10   0
CTB  40  55  34  58 /  20  10  20   0
HLN  43  59  39  68 /  30  20  20   0
BZN  38  59  31  70 /  20  20  20   0
WEY  32  53  27  59 /  20  20  10   0
DLN  41  60  38  69 /  20  20  10   0
HVR  42  61  35  65 /  20   0   0   0
LWT  42  59  38  67 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM MDT Friday
Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls











USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.