Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 020532
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1120 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.

.DISCUSSION...
A BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTHWEST FROM SASKATCHEWAN HAS PUSHED TO THE
GREAT FALLS AREA THIS EVENING. WINDS BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY ARE FROM
THE EAST TO NORTHEAST WITH MUCH HIGHER HUMIDITY ALONG WITH IT.
WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED ACROSS THE REGION WITH RISING HUMIDITIES, SO
THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. THE MAIN TWEAKS
TO THE FORECAST WERE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE BOUNDARY AND THE WIND
SHIFT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. DB

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0520Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS HAVE BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR ALL BUT KHVR WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS
DIRECTED TOWARD A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY. SCATTERED SHALLOW CUMULUS
ARE POSSIBLE MOSTLY OVER MOUNTAIN AREAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AT THE TOP
OF A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. NUTTER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 508 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL BUILD INTO MONTANA THROUGH
THIS PERIOD, CONTINUING THE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE BREEZY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS. ALSO, A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT
OF CANADA, SHIFTING WINDS MORE EASTERLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
MONTANA AND CAUSING TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY TO BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN TODAY. A FEW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAIN
AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS ON SUNDAY,
SIMILAR TO TODAY, BUT SKIES WILL OTHERWISE BE MOSTLY CLEAR. A
DISTURBANCE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO SOUTHERN
IDAHO ON MONDAY, BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA, ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS OF WESTERN AND
SOUTHWEST MONTANA. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE STORMS TO PRODUCE
PLENTY OF CLOUDINESS, TEMPERATURES THERE ON MONDAY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN THOSE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER, THE
STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL HELP WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL MONTANA SIMILAR TO THOSE TODAY AS SOUTHEAST WINDS THERE
INCREASE.  COULSTON

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THERE SHOULD BE A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK WITH A FEW EMBEDDED WEATHER DISTURBANCES.
THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER WITH DETAILS OF THE ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM FORECAST IDEA. TOWARDS THE WEEKEND THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT A DRIER WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
COULD DEVELOP. DID LOWER THE INHERITED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
FORECAST SLIGHTLY FOR FRIDAY BUT DID NOT REMOVE THE MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN THOSE
OF THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY
WEDNESDAY. BLANK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL BE POOR AT MID-SLOPE TO
RIDGETOP LOCATIONS AS OVERNIGHT INVERSIONS/THERMAL BELTS PERSIST.
A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SW ON
MONDAY, LIKELY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY THUNDERSTORM WINDS FOLLOWING THIS PERIOD OF VERY WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON
MONDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  97  57  92  58 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  94  51  91  55 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  98  52  98  54 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  94  49  94  51 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  84  34  87  39 /   0   0  10  10
DLN  92  50  92  52 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  94  56  90  57 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  92  58  89  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS


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