Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 250928
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
328 AM MDT MON JUL 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Wednesday Evening...Broad high pressure ridging
persists from the Four Corners area to the US/Can border, keeping
warm and mostly dry conditions over our region to start this week.
First in a series of weak disturbances that will traverse the
westerly flow aloft crosses the Continental Divide late this aftn.
Accompanying moisture looks to be a bit spotty, so only isolated to
scattered thunderstorms are expected, mainly along the Rocky Mtn
Front and over parts of the central and southwest counties. Forecast
models continue to depict broader thunderstorm coverage with the
weak trofs arriving Tues and Wed aftn, with an increasing chance
that some storms in the central and Hiline areas may produce locally
moderate rainfall as indicated by precipitable water values of 0.75-
0.95 inch. Temperatures remain a few degrees above normal today and
Tues with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.
Waranauskas

Wednesday Night through Monday...The period begins with a large-
scale anticyclone positioned over the interior southwest. Showers
may linger overnight Wednesday for north-central MT, depending on
the timing of a departing shortwave trough. The slightly retrograde
anticyclone raises heights over the northern Rockies Thursday into
Friday, but still cannot rule out a few diurnal showers or
thunderstorms. A stronger weather system moves across the Canadian
Rockies Friday night into Saturday. Model solutions vary on the
timing and southerly extent of this system, but the end result is a
push of monsoonal moisture into southwest Montana sometime over the
weekend. Thus, chances for showers and thunderstorms have been added
to the forecast but confidence in this solution remains low.
Temperatures remain 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal averages through
much of the period, then trend back near average by Monday with
lower heights amid a poorly defined southwesterly flow over the
region. PN

&&

.AVIATION...
Updated 05200Z.
Skies will remain clear and winds will be light through mid-day
Monday. Surface high pressure building over southern Alberta Monday
afternoon will switch winds to northerly. An upper level disturbance
will produce scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms over
southwest Montana Monday afternoon. VFR conditions prevail, except
briefly MVFR conditions possible directly under any convective
activity. PN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  90  55  91  57 /  10  30  20  20
CTB  84  53  84  54 /  10  10  40  20
HLN  92  60  92  61 /  10  10  20  20
BZN  91  52  91  53 /  10  10  20  20
WEY  80  43  81  44 /   0  10  20  10
DLN  88  52  88  53 /  10  10  20   0
HVR  90  58  89  59 /  10  10  30  20
LWT  87  58  87  58 /  10  20  30  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls



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