Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
FXUS65 KTWC 282146
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
246 PM MST Fri Oct 28 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Strong high pressure will result in dry conditions with
well above normal daytime temperatures through the weekend. A trough
through the western states should bring a moderate cooling trend
next week, with temperatures falling closer to seasonal averages by
the middle of the week.
.DISCUSSION...Water vapor imagery and recent model data shows the
high now centered over the general vicinity of eastern Chihuahua
Mexico and west Texas, with the ridge axis extending northeast
across the Texas Panhandle and into the central plains. Meanwhile, a
shortwave trough is currently making its way through the Great
Basin. IR imagery shows plenty of cloudiness associated with this
low, as well as remnants of Seymour spilling moisture over parts of
the Desert Southwest. For southeast Arizona this is mostly high
level cirrus clouds, but some scattered mid level clouds in the mix
Remnant moisture associated with what was Seymour over the eastern
Pacific waters will continue to spill across parts of the Desert
Southwest, mainly to our north and west through the weekend.
The next system to affect our area will be during the middle to
latter part of next week as a low cuts-off across southern
California and northern Baja early Wednesday and lingers across the
region through late in the week. Some fairly significant differences
among the models but for now it looks like at least a small threat
for showers hugging the border with New Mexico each day from Tuesday
night through Friday. However, stay tuned since confidence in the
forecast this far out is low to moderate.
.AVIATION...Valid through 30/00Z.
VFR with BKN-OVC cirrus level clouds through the period and FEW-SCT
clouds at 8-12k ft agl. Surface wind generally ely/sely at 7-14
knots. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions will prevail into early next week.
Expect occasionally gusty east to southeast winds through this
evening. 20-foot winds will then be terrain driven generally 15 mph
or less into the middle to latter part of next week. A low pressure
system will begin to move into the Desert Southwest, bringing a
chance of showers mainly to the White Mountains and the border
with New Mexico late Tuesday into Friday.
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