Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 030431
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
930 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE PARTIAL CLEARING AND COOLER TONIGHT BEHIND A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITING THE STATE. A FOLLOW UP SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.
DRY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES STARTING THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOLID SHOT OF PRECIP FOR MOST OF THE AREA OVER THE
PAST 6 HOURS. FRAGMENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING OUT IN COCHISE
COUNTY WITH DECENT SHOWERS CONTINUING ALONG AND JUST BEHIND ITS
REMAINS. THIS COULD END UP BEING A PROBLEM FOR SOME AREAS OF THE
COUNTY THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN BETWEEN .75 AND 1 INCH OF RAINFALL
(SUCH AS JUST SOUTH OF THE SIERRA VISTA AREA). SOMETHING WE WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

SPOTTIER SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE AREA AS THE
INITIAL SYSTEM LIFTS QUICKLY INTO COLORADO TONIGHT. SNOW LEVELS
RANGE FROM ABOUT 8500 FEET IN SOUTHERN COCHISE COUNTY TO 6500-7000
FEET FROM TUCSON NORTHWARD. BEST GUESS IS THE CATALINAS GOT
SOMEWHERE FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES BUT WE WON`T HAVE ANY REPORTS UNTIL
TUESDAY MORNING. THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF
GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES REMAINS IN EFFECT. AS OF 9 PM HANNAGAN
MEADOW WAS UP TO ABOUT 6 INCHES. CAMERAS ON MT GRAHAM AND RAINFALL
GAGES AT THE BASE OF THE MOUNTAIN SUGGEST 4 TO 6 INCHES SO FAR WITH
ANOTHER BATCH MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 04/06Z.
A STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA THRU THIS EVENING.
EXPECT SCT-BKN CLOUDS 2-6K FT AGL WITH MULTIPLE LAYERS ABV AND
IFR/MVFR CONDS OVER MTNS AND NEAR SHOWERS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN ACROSS
EASTERN AREAS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SURFACE COLD FRONT
THROUGH KTUS AND KOLS BUT FRAGMENTING AND STALLING AS IT PUSHES
TOWARD KDUG. SFC WINDS SLY 15-25 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN ADVANCE OF
COLD FRONT WITH MUCH LIGHTER WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND FRONT. SKY
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 03/06Z FROM WEST TO EAST.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE SHOWERS AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NEW MEXICO. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
IMPACT THE AREA ON LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY FOR ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. DRY AND
WARMER THURSDAY ONWARD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...SHOWERS EVER SO SLOWLY ARE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN BAND WAS STILL WEST OF TUCSON WITH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SO FAR ACROSS CENTRAL TO WESTERN PIMA COUNTY
RANGING IN THE 0.25" TO 1" RANGE WITH THE HIGHER VALUES ACROSS WERE
PIMA COUNTY NEAR AJO. SNOW LEVEL WAS AROUND 9KFT FROM TUCSON EAST
BUT WILL BE LOWERING AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST
THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL HAVE TO RELY ON CONVECTIVE BANDS AND
UPSLOPE CONDITIONS TO GET OUR SNOW TOTALS TO THE ADVISORY AND
WARNING CRITERIA FOR THE MOUNTAINS FROM NEAR TUCSON TO THE WHITES
MOUNTAINS. STRONG GUSTY WINDS OUT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITH WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND COCHISE COUNTY OUT UNTIL 8 PM.
ALONG THE FRONT WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN IN THE 40-50 MPH. THE UPPER LOW
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW HAS OPENED UP THIS
AFTERNOON AS IT MOVED INTO SRN CA AND IT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE
ACROSS NRN AZ TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING AREAWIDE FROM
WEST TO EAST ALTHOUGH AREAS EAST OF TUCSON WILL HOLD ON TO SHOWERS A
BIT LONGER OVERNIGHT.

FOLLOW-UP SYSTEM...CURRENTLY BECOMING A CUT-OFF LOW OFF CENTRAL CA
COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL DIG FURTHER SOUTH TO OFF THE NRN BAJA
COAST BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN TURN EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
BAJA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES
WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. HAVE
INCREASED POPS FOR THIS AREA TUE NGT INTO WED BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY
NEED TO BOOST THEM UP A LITTLE MORE. NOT LOOKING AT A BIG QPF EVENT
WITH THIS FEATURE WILL AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS A TENTH OF AN INCH.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRY WITH UPPER HIGH OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN CA
AND WEAK TROFINESS OVER THE AREA. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMING BOTH DAYS.

SATURDAY THRU MONDAY...REMAINING DRY WITH HIGHS RUNNING 4-8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM MST TUESDAY ABOVE 6500
  FEET FOR AZZ510-511.

&&

$$

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