Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 051622
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
921 AM MST THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST TODAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE DAY...THEN EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
WARMING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 05/12Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW
THE RIDGE AXIS TO OUR EAST AND EXTENDS FROM CHIHUAHUA MEXICO INTO
NEW MEXICO AND NORTHWARD INTO COLORADO AND WYOMING. FARTHER
WEST...JUST OFFSHORE OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS AN UPPER LOW THAT
WILL BRING US INCREASING WINDS TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WITH THE WINDS INCREASING CONSIDERABLY TODAY
HAVE COORDINATED WITH PSR AND DECIDED TO ISSUE A BLOWING DUST
ADVISORY THAT WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM NOON UNTIL 8 PM MST TODAY FOR
ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GRAHAM AND GREENLEE
COUNTIES...AS WELL AS ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5000 FEET.

WITH THE RIDGE AXIS HAVING MOVED EAST...HIGH TEMPS NOT QUITE AS WARM
AS YESTERDAY BUT STILL WARM AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THE UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
THIS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN...MOSTLY ACROSS NORTHERN
FRINGES OF MY CWA...ALONG WITH CONTINUED STRONG WINDS FOR BOTH TODAY
AND FRIDAY. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS...AS WELL
AS THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION AND WATCH/WARNING AND ADVISORY SECTIONS
BELOW FOR HEADLINES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

AS OF 16Z (9 AM MST)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WERE GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR DESERT/VALLEY LOCATIONS. THESE
READINGS SEEM TO BE ON TRACK WITH THE INHERITED AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPS...SO NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR AND WILL ADJUST ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 06/18Z.
PATCHES OF MAINLY CIRRUS CLOUDS AT TIMES...REMAINING CLEAR BELOW 15K
FT. INCREASING SURFACE WINDS BY MID TO LATE MORNING...BECOMING WINDY
BY EARLY AFTERNOON...SLY/ SWLY AT 12-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 35
KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM MST
THURSDAY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 150 AND 151. A RED FLAG WARNING IS
ALSO IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM MST FRIDAY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES
151...152 AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF 153. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND A HIGH FIRE DANGER
RATING WILL CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. 20-FOOT WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY...AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ON
FRIDAY.

COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MOST LOCATIONS ALONG WITH BREEZES PERSISTING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND
WILL PREVAIL MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TIGHTEN CONSIDERABLY...RESULTING IN WINDY
CONDITIONS TODAY AND FRIDAY. FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE EXPERIENCED FRIDAY...PRIMARILY EAST OF TUCSON. THE
GUSTY WINDS THAT DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY WILL CAUSE BLOWING
DUST AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. MOST OF THOSE CONCERNS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE FROM TUCSON EASTWARD.

THERE ISN`T MUCH OF A DEEP MOISTURE SOURCE AVAILABLE UPSTREAM OF THE
INCREASING SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE MAIN
LOW...BUT WE SHOULD MANAGE TO TAP INTO ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WATCH FOR HIGH
BASED STORMS WITH VIGOROUS OUTFLOW POTENTIAL

A STRONG COOLING TREND FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...BACK 10 OR MORE
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE BY SATURDAY.

DRY WITH ANOTHER STRONG WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    BLOWING DUST ADVISORY IN EFFECT TODAY FROM NOON TO 8 PM MST FOR
     AZZ501>508.

    RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MST TODAY FOR AZZ150-151.

    RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MST FRIDAY FOR AZZ151>153.

    WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MST SATURDAY FOR
     AZZ507-508-511>513.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER/RASMUSSEN

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