Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 011605
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
905 AM MST WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS
THE WESTERN STATES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF INFLUENCE TO ARIZONA WEATHER OTHER THAN A REINFORCEMENT
OF DRY AIR IN THE PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT ALLOWING FOR A SHIFT TO NORTHERLY
WINDS BEHIND THE TROUGH FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY WINDS WILL
TRANSITION BACK TO MORE TYPICAL TERRAIN DRIVEN CIRCULATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE
OVER ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE
DRY TREND AND WILL ALLOW FOR GRADUAL WARMING OF TEMPERATURES.


&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/18Z.
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON...RANGING FROM 10-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND
20 KTS MAINLY EAST OF KTUS...AND DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET TO LESS
THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. HOWEVER...GOOD OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES
ARE EXPECTED. A FEW WESTERLY BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TODAY MAINLY EAST
OF TUCSON...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PERHAPS
JUST A FEW EASTERLY BREEZES ON FRIDAY.


&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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