Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 061624
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
930 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK.
EXPECT RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AS EARLY AS MONDAY
WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...QUITE DRY WITH JUST A FEW WISPS OF CIRRUS ACROSS
NORTHWEST MEXICO. 12Z KTWC SOUNDING CAME IN WITH .13 INCHES
PRECIPITABLE WATER ALONG WITH STRONG 24 HOUR WARMING TRENDS FROM H5
DOWN. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL JUMP QUICKLY THIS WEEKEND...ARRIVING AT
NEAR RECORD LEVELS BY MONDAY (AROUND 12 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO).
CURRENT FORECAST ADVERTISES THESE TRENDS WELL. PLEASE SEE THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 07/18Z.
CLEAR SKIES WITH SURFACE WIND GENERALLY ELY AT 5-15 KTS WILL PREVAIL
INTO SUNDAY. OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS WILL OCCUR INTO EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WIND PRONE LOCALES SUCH AS
THE KTUS TERMINAL. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. A
GENERAL EASTERLY SURFACE WIND REGIME WILL ALSO OCCUR...WITH 20-FOOT
WINDS MAINLY LESS THAN 15 MPH. HOWEVER...AREAS PRONE TO EAST WINDS
WILL OCCASIONALLY EXPERIENCE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK.
DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ALSO BE IN THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WAS CENTERED THIS
MORNING WELL WEST OF THE SRN CALIFORNIA COAST VICINITY NEAR
30N/130W. A BROAD AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WAS ALSO CENTERED
SOUTH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR 20N/130W. AMPLE MAINLY MID
AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS EXTENDED FROM JUST EAST OF THE UPPER LOW
CENTER EWD/NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND INTO SONORA
MEXICO. MEANWHILE...A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS
CONTRIBUTING TO LOCALLY GUSTY EAST WINDS ACROSS SE ARIZONA AT THIS
TIME.

06/12Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC DEPICTED THE UPPER HIGH TO SLOWLY MIGRATE NEWD
INTO THE PACIFIC NW/GREAT BASIN REGION BY MON. THE BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL ALSO GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD CLOSER TO THE CENTRAL
BAJA CALIFORNIA SPUR BY MON. CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE BULK OF MOSTLY
CIRRIFORM CLOUDS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THIS AREA. THE REX BLOCK PATTERN
IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TUE...THEN THE UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO
FLATTEN WED AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS WELL SEWD INTO SRN MEXICO. THE
GFS/ECMWF/CMC WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFICATION
TO OCCUR AGAIN OVER THE GREAT BASIN/SWRN CONUS THUR...THEN THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD OVER ARIZONA NEXT FRI. THE UPSHOT...DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK UNDER CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

THE MAIN INFLUENCE FROM THIS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN COMBINATION WITH
A NEAR-SURFACE GENERALLY ELY FLOW REGIME WILL BE ON DAYTIME TEMPS.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5-10 DEGS WARMER VERSUS FRI FROM
TUCSON WWD ACROSS THE WRN DESERTS. HIGH TEMPS TODAY ACROSS ERN
SECTIONS WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGS WARMER VERSUS FRI. THE PRONOUNCED
WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE SUN AND MON...WITH RECORD OR NEAR-RECORD
HIGH TEMPS LIKELY FOR SEVERAL LOCALES MON. BASED ON THE 06/00Z NWP
SOLUTIONS...HAVE MADE DAILY UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS ON THE ORDER OF ABOUT
2-4 DEGS VERSUS THE INHERITED HIGH TEMP FORECAST. THUS...EXPECT NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN DAYTIME TEMPS TUE-FRI...WITH HIGH TEMPS TO
GENERALLY RANGE ABOUT 10-15 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL DEPENDING UPON
LOCATION.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/FRANCIS


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