Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 262128
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
225 PM MST THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK.
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN BRING EVEN WARMER
TEMPERATURES...WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR SOME LOCALES THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY THIN CIRRUS LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MOVING SOUTH
ACROSS ARIZONA TODAY AS THE STATE IS ON FRONT SIDE OF AMPLIFYING
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPT WAS AT
SAFFORD WHERE COOLER AIR HAS SEEPED IN FROM THE EAST.

WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF 2015 THUS FAR ARE ON TAP STARTING TOMORROW
AND CONTINUING THRU SUNDAY WITH RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. CHECK CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

GFS MODEL CONTINUES TO BE THE STRONGER MODEL WITH RESPECTS TO UPPER
LEVEL TROF MOVING INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY. MOSTLY MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
WITH THIS SYSTEM SO A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 28/00Z.
EASTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 15 TO 20 KTS AT TIMES WILL GENERALLY
SUBSIDE AFTER 27/00Z ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS COULD SEE A SLIGHT UPTICK
IN SFC WINDS OF 10-15 KTS AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. AFTER EASTERLY WINDS SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...EXPECT
NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH A FEW AFTERNOON
GUSTS EXPECTED. A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN MONDAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
RESULTANT GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS COULD REACH THE VALLEYS.

AFTER THAT SYSTEM PASSES BY MONDAY...THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK WILL
BE DOMINATED BY INCREASED WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL TRANSLATE
TO WINDIER AFTERNOONS IN SE AZ ALONG WITH A CONTINUATION OF DRY
CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ON THE 28TH. HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGHS
FOR MARCH 28TH AND 29TH.

LOCATION                   MARCH 28TH      MARCH 29TH
TUCSON INTNL AIRPORT       91 IN 1943      91 IN 1943
AJO                        97 IN 1988      93 IN 1943
PICACHO PEAK               92 IN 1988      93 IN 2004
NOGALES                    84 IN 1986      85 IN 1967
SAFFORD                    91 IN 1988      89 IN 1953
SIERRA VISTA               82 IN 1967      83 IN 2012
TOMBSTONE                  91 IN 1917      86 IN 1943
WILLCOX                    89 IN 1916      88 IN 1916
DOUGLAS                    85 IN 2012      85 IN 2012

THE HISTORICAL AVERAGE FIRST 90 DEGREE DATE IN TUCSON IS APRIL 9TH.
HOWEVER SINCE 2000 THE AVERAGE FIRST DATE IS MARCH 29TH. SO BASED ON
RECENT HISTORY...THE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 90 DEGREE DATE FOR
TUCSON IS RIGHT ON TIME.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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