Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 252327
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
527 PM MDT MON JUL 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening Through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 234 PM MDT Mon Jul 25 2016

Current surface map shows trof across eastern Montana into eastern
Wyoming. Narrow axis of instability with MLCAPE of 1000-1500J/KG
from the Black hills into western Nebraska. Isolated thunderstormsover
the Black Hills. Isolated-scattered thunderstorms will continue
through this evening from Black Hills into southwest South Dakota.
Activity will then shift north and east with low level jet and
best theta-e advection.

On Tuesday, some convection may linger in the morning across
northwest South Dakota into central South Dakota. Shortwave
crosses the area Tuesday afternoon/evening. Sufficient
instability/shear for severe thunderstorms from Black Hills into
southwest/south central South Dakota. Locally heavy rain also
possible with high precipitable water and slow storm motion.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Through Monday)
Issued at 234 PM MDT Mon Jul 25 2016

West to northwest upper level flow will keep
temperatures near seasonal averages through the end of the week.
Several weak disturbances will cross the area, with a daily chance
of showers and thunderstorms. Then an upper ridge moves over the
region, with warmer and drier weather expected for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued At 525 PM MDT Mon Jul 25 2016

Scattered thunderstorms will persist into the evening...especially
over the Black Hills and the western SD plains...then diminish by
late evening. MVFR to IFR visibilities and gusty winds are
possible near storms. VFR conditions expected outside of stormy
areas. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop Tuesday
afternoon.

&&

.UNR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...Johnson


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