Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 010811
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
211 AM MDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 210 AM MDT FRI AUG 1 2014

UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH NW FLOW
CROSSING THE NRN PLAINS. WV IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK WAVES OVER MT/NEAR
CAN BORDER SLIDING SE. MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG EXPECTED TODAY W/
DIURNAL HEATING...AND WITH WAVES CROSSING THE ARE THIS AFTN/EVNG
-TSRA AREA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...ISOLATED IN COVERAGE EXCEPT BETTER
CHANCES OVER THE BLKHLS. LL SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK...SO SVR WX NOT
EXPECTED THOUGH A COUPLE STORMS COULD BE STRONG.

UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD SATURDAY...BUT STILL A
SIMILAR SET UP TO TODAY. MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG AGAIN
EXPECTED...BUT LACKING WEAK IMPULSES CROSSING THE CWA WILL KEEP
STORM DEVELOPMENT TO A MINIMUM. WILL SL CHC KEEP POPS LIMITED TO
BLKHLS SAT AFT/EARLY EVNG. TEMPS WILL REACH 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 210 AM MDT FRI AUG 1 2014

THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS ON SUNDAY. WEAK FORCING WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTN/EVE THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING...THE
BLACK HILLS AND NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN ON MONDAY/TUESDAY WITH A MID LEVEL MOISTURE
PLUME AND EMBEDDED TROF/WEAK LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 210 AM MDT FRI AUG 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...10





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