Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 140821
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
221 AM MDT MON JUL 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT MON JUL 14 2014

DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SE INTO
THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE REMAINING
ANCHORED. QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AS THE
REGION WILL BE IN THE NEUTRAL SINK ZONE IN BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES. CAA AND HEIGHT FALLS ONGOING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES AS THE MAIN LL BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS STALLED SW OF THE
FA. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION VIA NORTHERLY
WINDS. HAZE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION PER LONG TRAJECTORY
NORTHERLY FLOW...WHICH CONTINUES TO ADVECT CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL NORMS TODAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 MOST AREAS. COOL AND
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 40S MANY AREAS...WITH SOME UPPER 30S IN THE BLACK HILLS.
HOWEVER...INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS MAY LIMIT TEMP FALLS ACROSS THE
WESTERN THIRD...ESP NE WY.

PAC NW SW TROUGH WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
TUES...HELPING TO PUSH THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK EAST TOWARD
THE REGION TUESDAY PER REFLECTED SW FLOW ABOVE THE BL. THIS WILL
SUPPORT ELEVATED POS THETA-E ADV ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
FA...WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS LIKELY INCREASING THROUGH THE
DAY. INCREASING LSA WITH A POS THETA-E ADV REGIME WILL SUPPORT
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHRA AND ISOLD TS ACROSS NE WY LATE TUE
AFTERNOON...WITH BETTER DYNAMICS IN PLACE FOR ACTIVITY TUE NIGHT.
MONSOON PLUME WILL SPREAD EAST INTO THE REGION WITH PW VALUES
INCREASING OVER ONE INCH BY LATER TUE NIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN
THIRD...PARTICULARLY NE WY. SUPPORT FOR UVM AND POS THETA-E ADV
BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHRA/TS WITH THE ADVECTING UPPER IMPULSE AND
ASSOCIATED JET STREAK. HAVE RAISED POPS TUE NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT MON JUL 14 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN
CONUS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH A TROF TO THE EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  A SHORTWAVE IS STILL PROGGED TO SLIDE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS WY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WAVE WILL CLIP WESTERN
AND SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WY INTO SOUTHWESTERN SD.
COOLER AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE 70S.

A WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS THE
RIDGE SLIDES EAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY WEAKENS. HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS FOR
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AND A SHORTWAVE TROF
MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT MON JUL 14 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26





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