Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
326 PM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024

...THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK IS NEAR NORMAL
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

The winter/spring freshwater flood potential through the end of
March is near normal across southern New England except above
normal in southern Rhode Island.

For a graphical depiction of this outlook, go to:
http://www.weather.gov/nerfc/springfloodpotential

This outlook is based on current and forecast conditions including
temperatures, precipitation, snow cover, snow water content, river
flows, soil moisture, and ice coverage.

...RECENT TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION...

Temperatures and precipitation have been well above normal across
southern New England through the first half of March. Temperatures
are running 5 to 7 degrees above normal and rainfall accumulations
are 160 to 200 percent of normal through the first half of the
month. This equates to widespread 4 to 8 inches of liquid
equivalent precipitation across southern New England with slightly
lower amounts between 2 and 4 inche over The Cape and Islands
region.


...OBSERVED SNOW DEPTHS AND SNOW WATER CONTENT...

Snow depths and snow water content are virtually zero across
southern New England with the exception of the high elevations of
The Berkshires where there is very little snow pack.


...SOIL MOISTURE, RIVER FLOWS, AND GROUND WATER CONDITIONS...

Soil moisture, streamflow, and groundwater are all well above
normal across southern New England. Only exception is for
groundwater on Nantucket where wells are reporting below normal
levels. There is ongoing river flooding along the Pawcatuck River
in southern RI which is why the flood potential outlook for
southern Rhode Island is above normal.

...TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK...

The Climate Predcition Center`s 8 to 14 day outlook which goes
through roughly the end of March is leaning toward above normal
temperatures and precipitation.


...SUMMARY...

The winter/spring freshwater flood potential through the end of
March is near normal across southern New England except above
normal in southern Rhode Island.

Zero snowpack and river ice offsets the high streamflow/soil
moisture to yield a near-normal flood potential outlook over the
next 2 weeks. However, given flows in southern Rhode Island are
currently producing minor river flooding, the potential is above
normal for that region.

As a reminder, flooding rain can occur any time during the year,
even when the flood outlook is below normal. The Graphical
Hazardous Weather Outlook can provide a heads-up for excessive
rainfall over the next five days:

https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

The next Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook will be issued on
Thursday, March 28th.

$$

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