Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS
FNUS28 KWNS 182140
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0340 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017
Valid 201200Z - 261200Z
An active, progressive synoptic pattern will persist across the
Lower 48 this week, supporting periods of elevated to critical fire
weather conditions primarily over the High Plains. A low over Texas
will cut off and move eastward into the western Gulf of Mexico from
D3/Mon into D4/Tue. This low will be replaced by another mid-level
trough over the interior west and a strong (75-90 knot) mid-level
jet that will eject out onto the Plains around D6/Thu. As this
occurs, substantial surface cyclogenesis will take place in the
Colorado Front Range, with strong downslope flow and a synoptically
evident critical fire weather pattern taking shape D6/Thu afternoon.
...D3/Mon - Portions of the Central Plains...
Northerly/northwesterly surface flow will develop to the west of a
surface trough and east of a surface high centered over Colorado.
Warming afternoon surface temperatures (reaching the 50s and low 60s
F) will combine with critically low RH values and dry fuels for an
elevated fire weather threat across the region.
...D5/Wed through D6/Thu - Portions of the Central and Southern High
Westerly surface flow is expected to increase across the region in
response to gradually strengthening surface low over the Colorado
Front Range. Models suggest that this low will organize D5/Wed and
then deepen more substantially during the afternoon Thursday, along
with an attendant increase in wind speeds. Low RH values on each
afternoon, along with expected dry fuels and a lack of appreciable
antecedent rainfall suggest widespread elevated/locally critical
fire weather conditions on D5/Wed afternoon and perhaps higher-end
fire weather conditions in portions of eastern New Mexico and west
Texas on D6/Thu afternoon. Broad areas of 40% and 70% probabilities
have been added for this forecast, and will likely need to be
reconfigured/expanded accordingly as details regarding this fire
weather scenario (including timing of the western mid-level wave and
attendant mid-level jet) become clearer.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...