Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS
FNUS28 KWNS 242049
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017
Valid 261200Z - 011200Z
A series of disturbances will traverse the southern tier of the
CONUS throughout the extended period and serve as the primary
impetus for heightened fire weather threats during the D3/Sun-D6/Wed
time frame. The first of these disturbances, located over the Ozarks
at the beginning of the forecast period, will slowly dampen while
reaching the southern Appalachians on D4/Mon. Upstream, another
disturbance will amplify in the Four Corners region and become cut
off from the main belt of westerlies while moving slowly eastward
into the southern Plains by around D7/Thu. Model differences become
more substantial from around this point onward, suggesting a
lower-confidence forecast in later parts of the extended period.
...D3/Sun - Portions of New Mexico and West Texas...
Models have varied degrees of surface cyclogenesis in western North
Texas and vicinity during peak heating hours. As this occurs, a
favorable pressure gradient will set up for widespread westerly
downslope flow exceeding 20 mph amidst a dry low-level airmass.
Some areas are experiencing greenup of fuels, although overall dry
conditions and remaining areas of dormant fuels will support a risk
of fire spread, necessitating areal delineations of 40% (elevated)
and 70% (critical) threat areas for this outlook.
...D4/Mon-D5/Tue - Portions of New Mexico, far west Texas, and
Strengthening mid-level flow and a deepening surface low pressure
over the Four Corners region will foster gradually increasing wind
fields within a persistently dry low-level airmass. Both RH and
wind fields appear borderline for a higher fire weather threat (and
attendant 70% probabilities) in this forecast, although a
strengthening lee cyclone over the southern High Plains will aid in
increased wind fields and a higher probability of critical fire
weather conditions by D5/Tue afternoon.
...D6/Wed - Far southeastern Arizona, far southern New Mexico, and
parts of west/south Texas...
Although model discrepancies begin to grow around this part of the
forecast period, enough model consistency exists to highlight an
area of elevated to perhaps locally critical fire weather conditions
in this region D6/Wed afternoon. The region will reside on the
southern periphery of a surface low near the Texas Panhandle and/or
western Oklahoma, and dry, low-level westerly flow (exceeding 20 mph
in some areas) will contribute to the enhanced fire weather threat
in these areas. Wetting precipitation expected around the D5/Tue
time frame will likely augment the spatial extent of any fire
weather threat D6/Wed afternoon, and the forecast will likely
undergo refinements as these details become clearer.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...