Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS28 KWNS 202146
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0445 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VALID 221200Z - 281200Z

FOR MIDDLE/LATTER PORTIONS OF THIS WEEK...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BUILD INTO THE SWRN/S-CNTRL CONUS...BEFORE A TROUGH ARRIVES OVER THE
WRN CONUS THIS WEEKEND SHUNTING THE RIDGE EWD. FOR D5/FRI INTO
D6/SAT...A BAND OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL SWLYS/WLYS PRECEDING THE
TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL GREAT BASIN TO
WY...RESULTING IN AREAS OF STRONG SFC WINDS -- ESPECIALLY ON D6/SAT.
SOME FIRE-WEATHER RISK COULD ENSUE WHERE DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS BOLSTER
BOUNDARY-LAYER WARMING/DRYING. DIFFERENCES AMONGST MODEL SOLUTIONS
REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH AND DEGREE OF BOUNDARY-LAYER
DRYING YIELD SUFFICIENTLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER RISK FOR PROBABILISTIC DELINEATIONS AT THIS TIME.

ALSO OF NOTE...DRY SFC CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF SRN CA INCLUDING THE COASTAL RANGES/ADJACENT FOOTHILLS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE D3/WED-D8/MON PERIOD. IN GENERAL...WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT...MITIGATING THE FIRE-WEATHER POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER...SFC RIDGING OVER THE CNTRL GREAT BASIN ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL TROUGH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME
INCREASE IN NELY/ELY SFC WINDS ACROSS THE SRN-CA COASTAL
RANGES/ADJACENT FOOTHILLS FOR D7/SUN-D8/MON. REGARDLESS...
DIFFERENCES AMONGST MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTANT STRONG-WIND POTENTIAL LIMIT
CONFIDENCE IN THE FIRE-WEATHER RISK. FURTHERMORE...MANY MODEL
SOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTANT
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIMITED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR THESE
REASONS...PROBABILISTIC DELINEATIONS HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDED AT THIS
TIME.

..COHEN.. 10/20/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...



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