Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS28 KWNS 262041
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0340 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Valid 281200Z - 041200Z

An upper trough/low is forecast to amplify across the central
Rockies/Great Basin on Day 3/Friday and then move eastward across
the Plains this upcoming weekend, eventually reaching the Upper
Midwest by Day 6/Monday. Enhanced mid-level winds associated with
this upper trough/low will remain over parts of the Southwest and
southern Plains through Day 5/Sunday, and will elevate fire weather
concerns across these areas.

Medium-range guidance is in good agreement depicting amplification
of an upper ridge over the western CONUS and eastern Pacific from
Day 6/Monday through the end of the forecast period. Another upper
trough should develop southeastward from the northern/central
Rockies into the Plains and eventually the MS Valley in the same
time frame.

...Day 3/Friday - Day 5/Sunday: Portions of the Southwest and
Southern Plains...
Strong/gusty winds appear likely across the lower CO River Valley
into western/central AZ, as well as across southern NM into parts of
west TX on Day 3/Fri. Portions of these regions should also
experience lowered RH values, and 40%/marginal areas have been
maintained with only minor changes. These strong/gusty winds and
lowered RH values should redevelop on Day 4/Saturday across the same
general area. Uncertainty regarding RH values falling below 15% on a
widespread basis both days precludes higher probabilities at this
time.

By Day 5/Sunday, the enhanced mid-level winds associated with the
previously mentioned northeastward-moving upper trough will
overspread mainly west TX to deep south TX along the Rio Grande. A
40%/marginal area has been continued with minor changes across this
region as strong northwesterly winds should develop, with limited
confidence in critically lowered RH values preventing a 70%/critical
area.

For Day 6/Monday and beyond, weaker mid-level flow is forecast over
the Southwest and southern Plains, which should tend to limit the
prospect for widespread critical fire weather conditions. Therefore,
no probabilities have been included in this time frame.

...Day 3/Friday - Day 4/Saturday: Portions of Southern CA...
Strong northwesterly winds associated with a mid-level jet should
overspread portions of central/southern CA Friday afternoon. A
strengthening surface pressure gradient across the Great Basin and
CA may also lend some support to gusty offshore northerly to
northeasterly winds across portions of southern CA from Day 3/Friday
into Day 4/Saturday. Confidence in RH values becoming lowered near
critical levels and fine fuels being at least somewhat receptive
remains high enough to continue 40%/marginal areas across portions
of southern CA for both days. Mid-level flow and the surface
pressure gradient are forecast to weaken by Day 5/Sunday, which
should lessen the fire weather threat across southern CA.

...Day 3/Friday - Day 5/Sunday: Portions of the FL Peninsula...
A relatively dry low-level airmass is forecast to remain across much
of the FL peninsula through at least Day 5/Sunday in the wake of a
prior frontal intrusion. RH values may fall near to/below critical
thresholds each afternoon across interior portions of the FL
peninsula. However, forecast wind speeds do not appear sufficiently
strong to support widespread critical fire weather conditions any
day, which precludes the introduction of 40%/marginal probabilities.

..Gleason.. 04/26/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$


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