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FNUS28 KWNS 161913
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0112 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

Valid 181200Z - 241200Z

A longwave trough will become established across the West from
D3/Sun through D6/Wed, while mid/upper ridging becomes established
across the Southeast and adjacent western Atlantic.  Downstream of
the trough, a two-day period of lee cyclogenesis just east of the
central Rockies will aid in bolstering fire weather concerns around
the D3/Sun through D4/Mon time frame.  After D4/Mon, a surface cold
front will migrate southward across the Plains and result in a
lowered fire weather risk through the end of the forecast period.
Farther west, models hint at a weak offshore flow in portions of
southern California as surface ridging builds into portions of the
Great Basin (especially late D5/Tue into early D6/Wed), although
conditions appear to fall short of critical thresholds at this time.

...D3/Sun and D4/Mon - Portions of the Central/Southern Plains...
Increasing surface flow will become established within the dry
sector of a surface low over eastern/southeastern Colorado and
vicinity.  At this time, the primary limiting factor for a more
robust fire weather threat appear to revolve around boundary layer
mixing/drying.  Models keep extensive boundary layer moisture across
eastern New Mexico and the Texas South Plains - especially on D3/Sun
afternoon.  The most likely area for critical RH will occur across
portions of eastern and southeastern Colorado where surface drying
will be most pronounced, although models also keep the strongest of
surface flow to the south of the areas of most pronounced drying.
It appears possible that locally critical conditions will occur in
some portion of eastern CO/western KS at some point during peak
heating on D3/Sun, although uncertainty precludes highlighting these
localized areas at this time.  On D4/Mon, models continue to keep RH
values above critical thresholds from west Texas north-northeastward
into western Oklahoma despite strong (20-30 mph) westerly winds.

...D6/Wed - Portions of Southern California...
As the aforementioned offshore gradient becomes established across
the region, at least localized areas of elevated fire weather
conditions will develop in typical terrain-favored areas.  At this
time, the period of greatest concern will occur early during the day
on D6/Wed, with decreasing surface winds expected during the
afternoon.  Model trends will continue to be monitored.

..Cook.. 02/16/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$



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