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FNUS28 KWNS 162028
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

Valid 181200Z - 241200Z

Models indicate a very active southern stream during the extended
period, with multiple disturbances traversing the southern one-half
of the Lower 48.  An initial disturbance located over the Southern
Rockies on D3/Wed will eject into the Plains on D4/Thu, while being
replaced by a deeper trough to its west across the Lower Colorado
River Valley.  That trough will become even further established with
time as a powerful (120 kt) mid-level jet digs southward into
northwestern Mexico and far southern Texas through the extended.  At
the surface, a couple of periods of substantial cyclogenesis over
the Southern and Central Plains (one on D4/Thu and the other on
D6/Sat-D7/Sun) will foster multiple days of downslope flow in
portions of the Southern Plains, with perhaps some increase in fire
weather concerns depending on fuel availability.

...D4/Thu through D7/Sun - West/Central Texas and Eastern New
Mexico...
Sustained westerly low-level flow (with a substantial downslope
component) will develop across the region in response to the
aforementioned synoptic features.  As this occurs, some warming and
drying will occur, and the expectation is that some fuels
(especially finer fuels) will cure enough for a heightened fire
weather threat especially late in the forecast period.  Fuels remain
a concern, however, as copious amounts of precipitation have fallen
in the area and models indicate more wetting rain potential on
D3/Wed.  Furthermore, models do not suggest that critical RH will
develop within the gradually drying airmass at this time, although
this will be monitored in later forecasts for indications of more
drying than currently indicated.  Because of the aforementioned
uncertainties, have decided to hold off on headlines for portions of
the region, although a 40 percent/elevated delineation may
eventually be needed in the future.

..Cook.. 01/16/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$



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