Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS28 KWNS 262010
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0310 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

VALID 281200Z - 031200Z

AMPLIFIED FLOW WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W AND A TROUGH
OVER THE CNTRL/ERN U.S. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE PACIFIC
NW AND NRN TIER OF STATES ON D3/SAT WILL DAMPEN THE AMPLITUDE OF THE
RIDGE ACROSS THE W. WITH TIME...THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD ADVANCE
EWD AND AMPLIFY OVER THE CNTRL/ERN CONUS FROM D4/SUN INTO D5/MON.
THEREAFTER...A PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST BY MEDIUM-RANGE
GUIDANCE...WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE CONUS THROUGH D8/THU. DISCREPANCIES IN THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
OF ANY PARTICULAR UPPER FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE
AREAS BEYOND D5/MON LIMITS THE PREDICTABILITY OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THIS TIME FRAME.

...D3/SAT: PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN MT AND THE CNTRL/NRN HIGH PLAINS...
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD
ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF STATES SHOULD PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SFC LOW ACROSS ALBERTA MOVING EWD TO MANITOBA BY SAT EVENING AND A
LEE TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. STRONG/GUSTY
DOWNSLOPE WINDS APPEAR PROBABLE W OF THE SFC TROUGH ACROSS PORTIONS
OF ERN WY/WRN NEB AND PERHAPS FAR NRN CO AND FAR SWRN SD SAT
AFTERNOON. WITH ASSOCIATED WARMING/DRYING OF THE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS
EXPECTED...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THIS AREA D3/SAT...AND HAVE MAINTAINED THE 40 PERCENT
DELINEATION FOR THIS REGION. FURTHER TO THE N...STRONG/GUSTY WINDS
APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL/ERN MT AND WRN PORTIONS OF THE
DAKOTAS BEHIND A SWD MOVING COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO THE SFC LOW OVER
CANADA. HOWEVER...COOLER TEMPERATURES MAY LIMIT THE REDUCTION OF RH
SAT AFTERNOON FOR THIS AREA...AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO ADD
CRITICAL PROBABILITIES ACROSS MT/WRN ND/NWRN SD.

...D3/SAT: PORTIONS OF FL...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FROM D2/FRI INTO D3/SAT.
BEHIND THIS FRONT...NLY WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH OCCASIONALLY HIGHER
GUSTS POSSIBLE WILL LIKELY COMBINE WITH RH VALUES OF 25-35 PERCENT
SAT AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF FL. THIS WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT AN
ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. HOWEVER...WITH RECENT
RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA MOISTENING FUELS AND ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...THE LIKELIHOOD OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OCCURRING IS TOO LOW TO INTRODUCE
ANY PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME FOR D3/SAT ACROSS FL.

...D4/SUN: MUCH OF THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE MID MS
VALLEY...
A SFC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS SWD PROGRESS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PLAINS ON D4/SUN AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE
CNTRL/ERN CONUS. STRONG/GUSTY WINDS APPEAR LIKELY TO OCCUR SUN
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL/NRN
PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE MID MS VALLEY. HOWEVER...IT REMAINS
UNCLEAR THAT A SUBSTANTIAL OVERLAP BETWEEN CRITICALLY REDUCED RH
VALUES AND THE STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR. IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN
SUCH AN OVERLAP OCCURRING...PROBABILITIES MAY BE INTRODUCED FOR A
PORTION OF THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS AND/OR THE MID MS VALLEY IN A LATER
OUTLOOK.

..GLEASON.. 03/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...



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