Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS21 KWNS 130648
FWDDY1

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0147 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CNTRL/NERN ORE...S-CNTRL WA...

...SYNOPSIS...
A COMPACT SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH...CENTERED NEAR 40N AND 129W AS OF
0630Z...WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE ORE COAST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL FOSTER AN INCREASE IN DRY TSTM POTENTIAL ACROSS
MUCH OF THE INTERIOR PAC NW. MEANWHILE...A STRONG MIDLEVEL
ANTICYCLONE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN...RESULTING IN
ANOTHER DAY OF VERY HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WRN CONUS.
STRENGTHENING MIDLEVEL ELYS ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW WILL AID IN SPREADING MONSOONAL MOISTURE W/NWWD INTO PARTS OF
SRN/CNTRL CA AND SRN NV.  FARTHER E...A CLOSED MID-UPPER LOW AND
ACCOMPANYING AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

...INTERIOR PAC NW...
A SIGNIFICANT DRY TSTM EVENT IS FORECAST TO UNFOLD ALONG/E OF THE
CASCADE RANGE OF CNTRL/NERN ORE INTO S-CNTRL WA...WHERE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
PRECEDING HOT/DRY CONDITIONS HAVE OCCURRED IN THE PRESENCE OF AN
AMPLIFIED WRN NORTH AMERICA UPPER RIDGE...AND WILL PERSIST TODAY
WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE 90S/100S F. A DEEPLY
MIXED INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE WILL RESULT...AMIDST MLCAPE
VALUES GENERALLY RANGING FROM 200-500 J/KG AS MIDLEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE OFFSHORE SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH. VARIOUS
CONVECTION-ALLOWING GUIDANCE AND 13/00Z NAM/GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE
CONSISTENT SHOWING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TSTM POTENTIAL...AND GIVEN
STORM MOTIONS OF 20-30 MPH AND DRY LOW-LEVELS...PRECIPITATION TOTALS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. GUSTY/ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS ARE ALSO
LIKELY NEAR TSTMS.

DRY TSTM COVERAGE IS FORECAST TO BE MORE ISOLATED ACROSS CNTRL
WA...AS WELL AS FAR NERN CA AND NWRN NV...AS THESE AREAS WILL BE
REMOVED FROM THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT. HOWEVER...SIMILAR
LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL SUPPORT LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TOTALS WITH ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. ISOLATED DRY TSTM
POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO PEAK LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING
ACROSS NERN WA AS THE SHORTWAVE EJECTS NEWD.

W OF THE CASCADE RANGE IN WRN ORE/WA...PW VALUES WILL RANGE FROM
1-1.5 INCH DURING PEAK HEATING...SUPPORTING MAINLY WET TSTMS.

..ROGERS.. 07/13/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...




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