Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS21 KWNS 131536
FWDDY1

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0936 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

VALID 131700Z - 141200Z

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ARE MADE TO THE ONGOING ELEVATED AREA TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL/GUIDANCE TRENDS. THE FORECAST
REASONING BELOW REMAINS VALID...WITH ELEVATED/LOCALLY CRITICAL
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NM...FAR
SOUTHEASTERN CO...AND FAR WRN PORTIONS OF THE OK/TX PANHANDLES.

ELSEWHERE...LOCALLY ELEVATED CONCERNS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FL PANHANDLE...NORTHERN FL PENINSULA...AND
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL GA. HOWEVER...WHILE RH VALUES WILL BE CRITICALLY
LOW IN MANY SPOTS...SUFFICIENT WINDS ARE UNLIKELY TO OVERLAP DRY
FUELS ON A WIDESPREAD BASIS.

..PICCA.. 02/13/2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

...SYNOPSIS...
IN THE MID LEVELS...AN AREA OF BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW OVERLYING PARTS
OF THE ERN CONUS WILL GRADUALLY ADVANCE EWD TO THE WRN ATLANTIC.
FARTHER W...GENERALLY QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL CHARACTERIZE THE
MID-LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL/WRN CONUS...WHILE
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IMPULSES TRAVERSE THIS FLOW. RIDGING OVER PARTS
OF THE ERN PACIFIC WILL BEGIN TO EXTEND EWD TOWARD THE W COAST AND
VICINITY BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

...PORTIONS OF NERN NM...
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL SERVE TO ENHANCE LEE SFC
TROUGHING ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AND VICINITY...WITH
DOWNSLOPE-FLOW-ENHANCED WARMING/DRYING W OF THE LEE TROUGH. RH
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO AROUND 15-20 PERCENT ACROSS THE
REGION AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 60S TO THE MIDDLE 70S.
COMBINING WITH THESE CONDITIONS...AN ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE
GRADIENT SURROUNDING THE LEE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT SWLY TO WSWLY SFC
WINDS AROUND 15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GIVEN LIMITED RECENT
PRECIPITATION SUPPORTING DRY FUELS IN MANY AREAS...ELEVATED
FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR. HOWEVER...WITHOUT
EVEN STRONGER SFC WINDS AND WITHOUT EVEN LOWER RH ANTICIPATED...
CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON ANY MORE THAN A
BRIEF/SPOTTY/MARGINAL BASIS.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

$$


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