Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS21 KWNS 271609

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1008 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

Valid 271700Z - 281200Z


...Portions of the southern/central high Plains...
Previous forecast (discussed in detail below) remains on track with
recent observations and current guidance suggesting critical fire
weather conditions (characterized by southwesterly winds from 20 to
30 mph and afternoon RH values around 10-15 percent) from southeast
CO southward into west TX. Elevated fire weather conditions are
anticipated elsewhere across the region, generally from western
KS/eastern CO southward through west TX to the Big Bend. Some
locally critical conditions are possible for an hour or two across
the eastern TX/OK panhandles.

..Mosier.. 02/27/2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2017/

A mid/upper-level trough will remain positioned across the
Inter-Mountain West today, while fairly fast, quasi-zonal flow
persists across much of the eastern US. Within the western trough,
an impulse and related speed maximum will progress from the Sierra
Nevada eastward to the central high Plains. As a result, surface lee
cyclogenesis will take place over eastern Colorado, tightening the
pressure gradient across much of the southern and central Plains.

...Portions of the southern/central high Plains...
Ample west/southwesterly mid-level flow will exist over the region
today, such that downslope flow encourages considerable low-level
warming/drying to support a critical fire-weather threat from far
west Texas northward to southeast Colorado. A tightening surface
pressure gradient, in combination with strengthening flow aloft,
will support sustained southwesterly winds around 20-30 mph (with
gusts up to 40 mph) in the critical area. Meanwhile, despite the
potential for high clouds over parts of the region, RH values should
fall to around 12-15 percent. In tandem with dry fuels, these
meteorological conditions will favor rapid fire spread.

Surrounding the critical area, winds around 15-20 mph sustained will
combine with RH values around 15-25 percent to encourage elevated
fire-weather concerns from east-central Colorado to the Texas
Rolling Plains.

...Please see for graphic product...

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