Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS22 KWNS 301902
FWDDY2

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0202 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO AND THE TEXAS TRANSPECOS REGION...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA...MUCH OF
NEW MEXICO...AND PARTS OF WEST TEXAS...

Dangerous fire weather conditions are expected in portions of
southern New Mexico and the Texas Transpecos region, where
southwesterly wind gusts to 50 mph will combine with single digit RH
values and dry fuels to create an extremely critical fire weather
scenario tomorrow afternoon and evening.  Surrounding this region,
critical conditions are expected from southeastern Arizona
east/northeastward into the Texas South Plains.  RH values should be
borderline in portions of southeastern Arizona into western New
Mexico, with increasing chances of showers in the region late owing
to the approach of the upper low, although extensive southwesterly
surface winds (with gusts as high as 40 mph in a few areas) and
critically dry fuels should continue to support critical conditions
in these areas for at least a few hours through evening.

For more information, see the previous discussion below.

..Cook.. 03/30/2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0229 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017/

...Synopsis...
A strong midlevel cyclone and accompanying band of intense
tropospheric flow will gradually spread eastward across the
Southwest States. Antecedent dry surface conditions from portions of
the Southwest States to west and south TX will overlap with strong
to very strong winds in support of areas of substantially enhanced
fire-weather potential.

...Portions of the Southwest States to west and south TX...
Across the Extremely Critical area, southwesterly surface winds of
30-35 mph and higher gusts are forecast to combine with RH of 5-10
percent amid very dry fuels. This will occur as deep mixed layers
extend into the intense flow aloft.

Within the surrounding Critical area, southwesterly to west-
southwesterly winds of 20-30 mph are forecast to combine with RH
around 5-15 percent (lowest RH across southeast NM and far west TX)
amid dry to very dry fuels.

Winds will turn more westerly and perhaps west-northwesterly across
the Critical and Extremely Critical areas during the late afternoon
and into the evening/overnight. This wind shift could redirect any
ongoing fires.

Elevated to borderline-critical fire-weather conditions are expected
across the surrounding elevated area extending from portions of the
lower CO River Valley to portions of west and south TX. Critical to
near-critical RH is expected across many of these areas. Winds will
range from westerly at 15-20 mph across western parts of the
Elevated area, to southerly/south-southeasterly at 15-20 mph across
eastern parts of the Elevated area (east of a sharpening lee trough
amid initially limited moisture return). However, strong winds are
not expected to occur on any more than a brief/spotty basis.
Furthermore, less-favorable fuels for fire spread may mitigate the
overall fire-weather potential north of the Critical area across
parts of northern NM and vicinity.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$



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