Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS22 KWNS 261659

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1058 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z


...Portions of the southern/central high Plains...
Forecast outlined in the previous outlook (discussion appended
below) remains valid with only minor changes needed. Critical
conditions (i.e. sustained southwesterly winds from 20-30 mph and
minimum RH values in the low to mid teens) are still likely from
southeast CO southward along the TX/NM border into west/far west TX.

..Mosier.. 02/26/2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2017/

As a mid-level trough amplifies across the western US, heights will
gradually rise over much of the Plains and Mississippi Valley.
Within a broad area of relatively fast zonal flow across the central
US, multiple embedded impulses will translate northeastward towards
the Great Lakes and East Coast. At the surface, high pressure will
continue to build eastward into the Atlantic. To the west of this
ridge, lee troughing will organize over much of the high Plains,
with cyclogenesis occurring over eastern Colorado.

...Portions of the southern/central high Plains...
Strengthening westerly flow will overspread much of the
southern/central Rockies on Monday, resulting in a stronger surface
response (i.e., the aforementioned lee cyclogenesis) during the day.
In tandem with strengthening southwesterly mid-level flow, a
tightening surface gradient will favor windy conditions across much
of the region. Sustained winds around 20-30 mph, with gusts upwards
of 40 mph, will combine with RH values around 12-15 percent to
produce critical fire-weather concerns from southeast Colorado to
the Texas Trans-Pecos. Surrounding this area, sustained winds around
15-25 mph and RH values around 15-25 percent will support elevated
fire-weather concerns extending eastward into western Oklahoma and
the Texas Rolling Plains.

...Please see for graphic product...

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