Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS22 KWNS 250957
FWDDY2

DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0456 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHOULD BEGIN TO
OPEN UP DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS
TO INTERACT WITH IT. AS THIS OCCURS...THE DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES SHOULD CONTINUE TO BUILD
NORTHWARD...WITH BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW SPREADING OVER MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

...NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...AND SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...
DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO IN RESPONSE
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DEEPLY
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING MIXING
OCCURRING UP TO NEAR 500 MB ACROSS THE AREA. THIS DEEPLY MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT DAY TIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE
80S AND 90S...ALONG WITH RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
LOW TEENS. THIS WILL FOSTER AT LEAST AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
THREAT. AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER...THERE REMAIN MODEL DISCREPANCIES AS
TO THE STRENGTH AND AREAL EXTENT OF THE STRONGEST SURFACE WINDS.
THESE DISCREPANCIES PRECLUDE THE DELINEATION OF A CRITICAL FIRE
THREAT. IF IT BECOMES CLEAR THAT SURFACE WIND SPEEDS WILL EXCEED THE
CRITICAL THRESHOLD /20 MPH/ ON MORE THAN A TRANSIENT/LOCAL BASIS...A
CRITICAL RISK COULD BE REQUIRED ACROSS SOME PORTION OF THIS AREA.

...MUCH OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...
ONCE AGAIN...STRONG INSOLATION COUPLED WITH A DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL
RESULT IN RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST. SURFACE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AS COMPARED TO DAYS
PRIOR...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN IN THE 15-20 MPH RANGE. THESE MODEST
/BUT SUB-CRITICAL/ WIND SPEEDS COUPLED WITH CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES
WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHWEST.

..MARSH.. 05/25/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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