Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 231614
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1114 AM CDT FRI JUN 23 2017

                    VALID JUNE 23 THROUGH JUNE 28

...SCATTERED THUNDERSHOWERS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

Tropical depression Cindy has exited the WGRFC area leaving minimal
impacts to area rivers. Highest point rainfall totals ranged from
4.0 to 7.75 inches over extreme southeast Texas and Louisiana.
Only minor flooding has been noted in WGRFC`s area.

A ridge of high pressure is forecast to continue to slide
westward today as a northwesterly upper air flow develops across
the southern plains. This will allow an upper air disturbance to
approach Oklahoma later today into Saturday. This disturbance will
push a weak cold front southward into Texas along with it. The
combination of the disturbance and the front will bring a chance
for showers and a few thunderstorms into north Texas late today
into Saturday. The front will slide south into central and southeast
Texas by Saturday night so the chances for rain will persist with a
significant drop in air temperatures.

Thereafter, a second upper disturbance is forecast to move
southeastward and reinforce the chances for fairly widespread rain
Sunday into Monday, and over south Texas into Tuesday. At this
point the heaviest rain is forecast by weather models to fall over
eastern New Mexico into the Texas panhandle region Sunday. The
majority of the rain forecast over Texas will be very welcome,
and no new or additional river flooding is expected this weekend
or early next week at this time.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Saturday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of up to 1.50 inches are forecast for central and northeast
Texas. MAP amounts of up to 0.50 of an inch are forecast over
the eastern half of New Mexico and eastern Colorado.

For Saturday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of between 0.50
and 1.00 inch are forecast for east southeast Texas. MAP
amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast over most of
the remainder of the WGRFC area of responsibility.

For Sunday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of between 0.50
and 1.00 inch are forecast for of New Mexico and southern
Colorado. MAP amounts of less than 0.50 inches are forecast
over extreme southeast Texas along the Gulf Coast.

For Monday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of up to 0.50
of an inch are forecast for eastern New Mexico into the Texas
Panhandle. MAP amounts of between 0.50 and 1.00 inch are
forecast over south southeast Texas along the Gulf Coast.

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor for Texas shows the area considered
to be abnormally dry is around 27%, and roughly 5% of Texas is
experiencing moderate drought conditions. In New Mexico, 25% of
the state is experiencing abnormally dry conditions, with about 7%
of the state in the moderate drought category. The driest topsoil
moisture conditions are over west Texas into the panhandle, and soils
are rather moist over east Texas where it is raining now. Therefore,
significant runoff will be possible through Friday over the east
Texas river basins, with no significant runoff expected elsewhere the
next 5 days.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Sabine Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Rainfall along with releases currently being
made from Toledo Bend Reservoir are causing minor rises on the lower
end of the Sabine River.  The Sabine River at Deweyville (DWYT2) is
forecast to rise into minor flood levels later this week.  Forecast
locations for the remainder of the Sabine River are expected to remain
below criteria.

...San Bernard Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Tropical Storm Cindy has caused elevated water levels along the Texas
Gulf Coast.  An action stage forecast has been issued for the San
Bernard River at Sweeney (SWYT2) due to these tidal influences.  It is
expected to be dropped this afternoon.

...Neches Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
The Saltwater Barrier on the mainstem of the
Neches at Beaumont (NSBT2) is the only forecast from Cindy to reach
higher than normal (action stage) criteria levels for the area.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
All other sites in Texas are actually dry, while storms in New Mexico
are beginning to perk up and add some water.  However, no other
flooding is expected.


              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/NWSWestGulf

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

AUSTIN-SMITH


$$





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