Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
000
AGUS74 KFWR 281803
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1151 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

                   VALID JULY 28 THROUGH AUGUST 2

...HOT AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS WEEK OVER TEXAS, WITH
A LITTLE RELIEF POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND. MONSOONAL RAINS WILL CONTINUE
OVER NEW MEXICO...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
A strong upper level high pressure ridge is located over Arkansas
and eastern Oklahoma this morning.  This ridge will be anchored over
or near the WGRFC region and will continue to dominate the weather
over Texas through at least Thursday morning.  As a result, hot and
dry conditions are expected to persist across most of the forecast
area. This ridge has actually shifted a bit to the north the past 24
hours.  While this shift is minor in regards to the overall impact
on our hot, dry conditions, this shift has allowed a better chance
for diurnal showers and thunderstorms over east and southeast
Texas into Louisiana.  The showers in this area actually began Sunday
where rain moved westward out of Louisiana into extreme east Texas,
and this occurred again Monday.  These showers will continue each
afternoon, especially from Thursday into the weekend.

By Thursday the ridge is forecast to begin drifting westward, but
with little impact on our dry weather.  But by later Friday the ridge
will be centered over or near the four corners region and will
remain there through Sunday.  This shift in the ridge position not
only increases the chance for rain over southeast Texas near the
coast, but over other portions of Texas as well.  Upper disturbances
will continue to move around the periphery of the ridge and will
cross Texas.  While the chances for significant rainfall is small, it
is a chance for some rain nonetheless.

Monsoonal activity is expected to continue over the next 5 days over
portions of New Mexico, Colorado and far west Texas.  The showers and
thunderstorms should be rather limited through today, but as the
ridge shifts position Wednesday and Thursday the areal coverage and
the intensity of the rain should increase once again.  While there
likely will be some flashier flood concerns over New Mexico
especially on Wednesday and Thursday, no significant mainstem river
flooding is expected the next five days.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Wednesday morning, no significant Mean Areal
Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.  MAP
amounts of less than 0.25 inch are forecast for much of New Mexico
and southern Colorado.

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or more
are forecast for portions of northern and western New Mexico into
southern Colorado, and over south central New Mexico.  The heaviest
rain, with MAP amounts of 2.00 inches, are forecast over northern
New Mexico south and southwest of Taos.  MAP amounts of less than
0.25 inch are forecast for most of New Mexico, a good part of
Colorado, the Texas panhandle, extreme east Texas, and most of
Louisiana.

For Thursday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or more
are forecast for portions of northern and western New Mexico into
southern Colorado.  The heaviest rain, with MAP amounts of 1.00 inch,
are forecast over northern New Mexico south and southwest of Taos.
MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are forecast for most of New
Mexico, southern Colorado, the Texas panhandle, the eastern half of
Texas, and Louisiana.

For Friday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch are forecast
for portions of northern and western New Mexico into southern
Colorado.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are forecast for New
Mexico, much of Colorado, most of Texas, and southern Louisiana.

Many lakes, especially over the northeastern half of Texas, are full
and are releasing water according to regulation rules and schedules.
Soil moisture has been very high across much of Texas from rainfall
over May and June.  However, the hot, dry weather we have had in
July, along with the expectation of mostly dry weather over the next
several days, is causing the topsoils to dry out.  The rainfall
forecast over the next five days will not be heavy enough to cause
significant runoff except near the higher terrain of New Mexico.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Neches Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Releases from flood control reservoir Sam Rayburn have raised the
Neches River near Town Bluff (TBFT2) to just over flood stage. Releases
will continue to fluctuate as the reservoirs make daily adjustments.

...Trinity Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
North Texas lakes continue to slowly evacuate flood pool storage via
controlled releases in order to return to desired conservation pool
levels.  Lake Grapevine and Lake Lewisville both reduced their releases
recently allowing river levels at Carrollton to finally drop below
minor flood level.  System-wide, the reservoir releases have kept
streamflows downstream at higher than normal flow levels, which is
expected to continue for several weeks as the water works its way to
the Gulf.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
The remainder of WGRFC rivers are flowing below criteria at near
or above normal baseflow conditions. Significant rainfall is not
forecast in the WGRFC area in the next 5 days.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

STORY

$$




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.