Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 281715
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1114 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

                  VALID FEBRUARY 28 THROUGH MARCH 5

...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE WGRFC
AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
An upper level disturbance is producing widespread light winter
precipitation across New Mexico and most of North Texas.  A well
organized Pacific storm is expected to track down the West
Coast through the weekend and begin to swing east Tuesday.  As a
result, the upper level flow will become southwest oriented,
drawing in deep Pacific moisture.  A milder airmass will return to
Texas, with the precipitation expected to turn to rain later Sunday.
Widespread light rainfall is expected for most of the area through
Tuesday.  Another strong cold front could impact the area Wednesday,
tapping into the deeper moisture.  Thunderstorms are possible later
Tuesday and Wednesday for the eastern half of Texas.

The forecast for New Mexico and Southern Colorado remains unchanged.
The previously mentioned upper level Pacific storm will hang around
the Southwest U.S. through the middle of next week.  Widespread
snowfall is expected across New Mexico and Southern Colorado, with
upslope areas receiving significant snow amounts.  Some areas will
measure new snow in "feet" increments through early next week.
Widespread beneficial snowfall should help dent the below normal
precipitation pattern for this area.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Sunday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 to 1 inch of precipitation are forcast for the upper
Rio Grande basin above Albuquerque and points north. The heaviest
amounts are forecast for the higher elevations in southern Colorado
and through Santa Fe and Taos.  MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 are also
forecast for the Corpus Christi area and point northwest in the San
Antonio and Austin area.

For Sunday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 1 inch of
precipitation are forecast for the upper Rio Grande basin above
Albuquerque and points north. The heaviest amounts are forecast for
the higher elevations in southern Colorado.  MAP amounts of 0.25 to
0.50 are also forecast for east Texas with the heaviest amount at the
Texas/Louisiana border.

For Monday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0,25 of an inch for
the upper Rio Grande above Albuquerque into southern Colorado.  MAP
amounts of 0.25 of an inch are also forecast for an narrow band from
the Hill Country and points east into Louisiana between the I-20/I-10
corridor.  Another area of 0.25 of an inch is also forecast for an
area around the Dallas/Ft. Worth metroplex.

For Tuesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 of an
inch are forecast for the eastern third of Texas with the heavier
amounts increasing from west to east into Louisiana.  Other MAP
amounts of 0.25 of an inch are forecast from bands of precipitation
occurring in the upper Rio Grande valley from Alamogordo (NM) north
through Alamosa (CO).

Moderate or worse drought conditions continue across parts of New
Mexico and Texas. In Texas, about a third of the state is experiencing
moderate or worse drought (43%), and about 14% has extreme to
exceptional drought conditions. In New Mexico, two thirds of the state
is experiencing moderate or worse drought (68%), and 4% has extreme to
exceptional drought conditions.  Lake levels in these exceptional
drought areas are at or near historical lows for this time of year.
The most significant precipitation in the forecast the next five days
is for New Mexico and Southern Colorado.  No significant runoff is
expected elsewhere the next five days.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Sabine Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Runoff from recent storms have pushed the upper Sabine River near
Mineola to minor flood level and is expected to crest later today
and remain above minor flood levels for 24-36 hours then begin to
recede.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Most rivers are generally near normal baseflow conditions across the
eastern WGRFC area and below normal across the western areas.
Continued periods of cold rain and wintry precipitation over the
area will be beneficial moisture as any frozen precipitation will
slowly melt and infiltrate into the soil. Some criteria forecasts
may be necessary in the flashier basins of east Texas through
the period.


              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

CAZIER


$$





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