Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 281604
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HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1103 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

                 VALID AUGUST 28 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 2

...PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS COAST...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue over the
upper Texas coast and coastal bend the next several days,
as an area of low pressure moves along the southeast Texas
coast. Heavy rains have been focused along the immediate
shoreline and over the coastal waters the last day or so,
therefore this activity has not caused any significant issues
across any river systems at this time. As this feature continues
to drift along the coast, precipitation will continue to increase
in coverage across the entire coast. Rainfall amounts of 3-5
inches (isolated amounts up to 7 inches) are possible along the
coastal areas of Texas and Louisiana, mainly today through
Wednesday. No significant flooding is expected at this time.

Rain chances will remain in the forecast for the entire WGRFC
region through mid-week, as an upper level system moves towards
the area early this week. By the middle of this week, a ridge of
high pressure will build back westward once again and deliver
mostly dry conditions to most of Texas.

...Tropical updates...
There is still a lot of uncertainty on the development of a
tropical wave, currently moving over the Florida Straits.
Several weather models are forecasting some development of this
system and slowly move this feature over the Gulf of Mexico by
tomorrow. At this time, this system has a low chance of impacting
any portion of Texas, however a lot could change in the coming
days. Therefore, we will continue to monitor the forecast models
over the weekend and update accordingly.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Monday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of up to 1.00 inch are forecast for portions of the
southeast Texas coast. Lesser amounts are forecast for
New Mexico and West Texas.

For Monday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of to 1.00 inch
are forecast for the southeast Texas coast, New Mexico and West
Texas.

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50
inch are forecast for portions of the coastal bend of Texas.
Also the same amounts are also forecast for West Texas and New
Mexico.

For Wednesday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50
inch are forecast for portions of West Texas and New Mexico.

After the widespread rain the past seven days over parts of New
Mexico and Texas, drought conditions have eased somewhat. The U.S.
Drought Monitor has categorized Texas as 29% abnormally dry, with
less than 1% in severe drought. Over New Mexico, 88% of the state is
abnormally dry, and 24% remains in the moderate drought category.
The showers and thunderstorms forecast this week will keep more
serious drought conditions from developing over the WGRFC region,
while many sections continue drought-free.  Since topsoil has become
moister, some runoff is possible where the heaviest rain is
forecast. However, as the weather dries out some this week most of
the runoff will be insignificant across the majority of the WGRFC
area.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Guadalupe Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Lower end of the Guadalupe River continues to move flood waters
to the Gulf. The last point along the river with a forecast is at
Bloomington (DUPT2) which will remain above flood stage for another
day or so.

...Nueces Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Runoff from rain that fell last week continues to flow down the
mainstem of the Nueces River. No flooding is expected at this time,
but higher than normal flow will continue through the area over the
next few days. Additional rises likely with precipitation returning
to the region.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
All other rivers are recovering from the last rain event and
many locations are still well above normal flow for this time of
year. With additional rainfall expected over the next few days,
new minor rises are expected in many of our river systems.


              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

MCCANTS


$$





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