Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 251600
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1059 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

                     VALID MAY 25 THROUGH MAY 30

...ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS LATER THIS WEEK...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
As the week progresses so does the favorability for the
development of showers and thunderstorms. An upper level
pattern will result in the development of showers and
thunderstorms into the Memorial Day Holiday Weekend. The
southwesterly flow aloft will bring a series of disturbances
across the area. Low level moisture and instability remains
plentiful, which usually results in shower and thunderstorm
development with locally heavy rainfall. Daytime heating and
the dry line will provide the lift along with outflow boundaries
from the previous day`s thunderstorms. Widespread significant
rainfall is possible Thursday and Friday into the early weekend
for Central and Eastern Texas.

The heaviest of the rainfall will clear out of the area by
Saturday with another system setting up to bring more rain
into WGRFC`s area later in the weekend into next week.

As mentioned before, it will rain over the WGRFC area the next 5
days. Some areas in western Texas will receive little to no rain.
Some areas could see pockets of very heavy rainfall, especially in
and near the strongest thunderstorms. Widespread significant
rainfall is expected later this week into the weekend and early
next week.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Thursday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 to 1 inch are forecast for South Texas.

For Thursday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 1 to 3 inches
are forecast for Central Texas and east into Northeast Texas.
MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for the remainder
of the area.

For Friday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 1 to 2 inches
are forecast for east northeast Texas and southwest into Central
Texas. Highest amounts are along the OK-AR borders.

For Saturday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 1.50
inch are forecast for most of Texas, especially over North and
West Texas. MAP amounts of around 0.25 inch are forecast for
most of eastern New Mexico.

Soils are fairly moist across a good part of the state, especially
the eastern half. 3% of Texas is categorized as abnormally dry, with
less than 1% of the state in the moderate drought category. Over New
Mexico, 83% of the state is abnormally dry, and 40% remains in the
moderate drought category. The rainfall the next 5 days will not be
heavy enough for widespread significant runoff.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Guadalupe Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
Victoria (VICT2) and Bloomington  (DUPT2) are nearing crest
in moderate flood levels due to rainfall last week. Elsewhere,
flood levels have crested and have begun falling. Canyon Lake
is well within its flood pool and has been evacuating flood storage
through releases.  This has resulted in higher, sustained flows
downstream on the mainstem from Sattler to Gonzales.  However, there
are plans to reduce releases beginning Thursday evening through the
weekend for Memorial Day weekend activities, but will likely resume
elevated releases early next week.

...Sabine Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Toledo Bend Reservoir has started decreasing their releases, and this
should continue the next several days. The Sabine River at Deweyville
(DWYT2) is expected to remain in minor flood level through the weekend.
Additional heavy rainfall over the next 5 days, may cause higher rises.

...Neches Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Higher than normal flow are expected to continue for areas below Town
Blulff the remainder of the week.

...Brazos Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Higher than normal flows are occurring on portions of the Brazos and
associated tributaries due to recent rainfall and releases from
upstream flood  control  reservoirs.

...San Antonio Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Higher than normal rises will continue on the lower end of the San
Antonio River the next several days. Goliad (GLIT2), has fallen
below minor flood level and should drop below criteria the by
tomorrow. Additional heavy rainfall over the weekend may cause some
higher rises on the remainder of the river system.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Soils remain wet over most of the eastern half of the WGRFC forecast
area. Additional rainfall is expected later this week, which could
lead to more river flooding on basins already impacted.


              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

AUSTIN-SMITH


$$





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