Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 221527
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1026 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

                  VALID AUGUST 22 THROUGH AUGUST 27

...PRECIPITATION WILL BE MINIMAL OVER TEXAS THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WHILE
THE MONSOON CONTINUES OVER NEW MEXICO...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

A upper air disturbance combined with abundant atmospheric moisture
to continue to produce showers and thunderstorms over west Texas and
northern Mexico for past 24 hours.  The heaviest rainfall was noted
around areas near El Paso.  This disturbance has weakened in
the past few hours. Therefore, less rainfall is expected over Texas
than has been experienced the past few days.

A strong upper level system has developed just off the southern
California coast. The high will move over the lower Mississippi
River valley through the weekend before drifting north to the western
Ohio valley by Monday.  This will keep conditions very warm and
dry for most of Texas into Tuesday morning.

Elsewhere, monsoonal rainfall activity is forecast to continue over
portions of New Mexico, especially by Friday and Saturday as the upper
low from California moves northeastward. And the sea breeze front will
persist over the Gulf coast and southeast Texas, producing scattered
thundershowers during the afternoon hours each day for the next 5
days. The day with the best chance for rain appears to be Monday.
However, no significant rainfall is expected from that activity.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Saturday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 of an inch are forecast for the upper Rio
Grande valley from El Paso north through Santa Fe, New Mexico.

For Saturday into Sunday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Sunday into Monday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Monday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 of an
inch are forecast for the upper Rio Grande valley with heaviest
amounts north of El Paso below Elephant Butte Lake.

Extreme to exceptional drought persists over parts of central
and southwest Texas, as well as over the western parts of north Texas
into the Texas Panhandle and northeast New Mexico.  Statewide, New
Mexico is out of exceptional drought while less than 3% of Texas
remains in exceptional drought.  Severe drought conditions are
impacting 40% of New Mexico and 34% of Texas.  The monsoonal rains in
New Mexico have eased the drought conditions over the past couple
weeks, especially the southeast portions.  In Texas, the drought has
diminished over roughly the southeast quarter.  No widespread
significant rainfall is forecast the next 5 days, therefore no
significant runoff is expected.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...WGRFC Basins...
Rainfall caused a local rise at Candelaria (CDET2) but fell below
action stage in less than 2 hours.  Additional rainfall in the
area may cause temporary rises out of bank for that region of the
Rio Grande.  Elsewhere, River conditions across the WGRFC area
remain near or below seasonal flows.  Localized thunderstorm
complexes continue to be daily, scattered across the area
that are helping to add much needed water to the system, but no
significant flooding is expected.



              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

CAZIER


$$





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