Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 251612
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1112 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016

               VALID SEPTEMBER 25 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 30

...WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS TO CONTINUE INTO
EARLY THIS WEEK...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

Widespread convective precipitation has occurred during the past 24
hours ending this morning in the western two thirds of Texas.
Localized amounts in excess of 4 inches were observed as of 7am this
Sunday morning in the west and northwest. Later this morning,
locally heavy rainfall in excess of 4 inches has been observed in
other locations ranging from near Fort Worth affecting the upper
Trinity River basin to the western portions of the Hill Country,
affecting the Nueces and Rio Grande river basins. The heaviest
rainfall during the next 24 to 48 hours can be expected in the
southwestern and south central portion of the state affecting the
Rio Grande, Upper Nueces, the Colorado River tributaries that flow
into the Highland Lakes, and the headwaters of the Guadalupe and San
Antonio Rivers.

A strong upper level system over northwestern Mexico and a cold
front stalled along the western border of Texas are responsible for
the wet weather in the region. The cold front is expected to move
through Texas later today into Monday, pushing the threat for
rainfall to the lower Rio Grande Valley by early Tuesday.

Texas will see much drier and noticeably cooler weather for the
rest of the week. Showers and thunderstorms will be expected in
northern Mexico and New Mexico throughout the coming week.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Monday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.5 inch or more are forecast for most of the western two
thirds of Texas. The heaviest amounts of 2 to 4 inches are forecast
for portions of the Permian Basin, lower Trans Pecos, Big Bend area,
and western Hill Country of Texas.

For Monday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.5 inch or more are
forecast for portions of the Permian Basin, lower Trans Pecos, and
Big Bend area of Texas for northeastern Mexico. The highest amounts
of 2 to 3 inches are forecast near Amistad Reservoir.

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 1 inch
are forecast for portions of the lower Rio Grande Valley of Deep
South Texas.

For Wednesday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 1 inch are
forecast for portions of the lower Rio Grande Valley of Deep South
Texas.

Because of the widespread rain over the past few weeks over parts
of New Mexico and Texas, drought conditions remain favorable. The
U.S. Drought Monitor categorizes Texas as 4.5% abnormally dry, with
almost 1% in severe drought. New Mexico remains unchanged this
week with 47% of the state abnormally dry and 4% in the moderate
drought category.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...WGRFC Basins...
The first round of rainfall overnight has moistened up the soils from
Del Rio to Wichita Falls. Small responses were recorded at many
locations in the area, but all well below criteria. Additional heavy
rain in the area today, though, should produce more significant rises,
increasing the chances for criteria levels to be exceeded.

Additionally, reservoirs in Mexico within the Rio Conchos drainage
along with reservoirs within smaller Mexico watersheds that directly
drain into the mainstem between Amistad and Falcon Reservoirs, are near
conservation and may begin regulation. This would affect Rio Grande
flows from Presidio downstream through Laredo with the onset of any
heavy, widespread rainfall within those areas of Mexico.


              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

PHILPOTT


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