Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 201720
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1120 AM CST FRI JAN 20 2017

                 VALID JANUARY 20 THROUGH JANUARY 25

...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THE NEXT FIVE DAYS
WILL BE OVER NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
The upper level storm system which brought rain to southeast Texas
and Louisiana the past 24 hours is northeast of the WGRFC area this
morning. A weak ridge of high pressure is over Texas now and is
bringing dry weather.  But to the west, a series of upper level
disturbances are moving toward and through northern New Mexico and
southern Colorado.  These disturbances will continue to bring
snowfall to the higher elevations.

By this evening one disturbance will be interacting with a stalled
frontal boundary near the upper Texas Gulf coast.  This interaction
may bring showers and thunderstorms to southeast Texas and western
Louisiana into tonight. Then on Saturday yet another upper air
disturbance will approach Texas from New Mexico. Precipitation will
persist over New Mexico and Colorado, while showers and thunderstorms
develop by Saturday evening over north Texas.  As this low pressure
system moves eastward the thunderstorms should slide across east
Texas and will move out of our region by Sunday morning.  No new or
additional mainstem river flooding is expected.

By Sunday a ridge of high pressure will build to the west of our
region.  This ridge will bring mostly dry weather to Texas for
several days.

Additional wintry precipitation is forecast from early to the middle
parts of next week over New Mexico and Colorado.  An upper low
will develop across the California coast by Tuesday morning.
Moisture from the Pacific Ocean ahead of this storm will cause the
precipitation to persist over the western parts of the WGRFC area
into Wednesday morning.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Saturday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for portions of the
southeast Texas coast into southwest Louisiana, as well as over
southwest Colorado into western and southern New Mexico.  MAP amounts
of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast for the southeast third of
Texas into Louisiana, as well as over most of New Mexico, Colorado,
and far west Texas.

For Saturday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch
are forecast for portions of southwest Colorado into northern
and southwestern New Mexico.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an
inch are forecast for the eastern half of Texas into Louisiana,
as well as over most of New Mexico, western Colorado, and far west
Texas.

For Sunday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch
are forecast for portions of southwest Colorado.  MAP amounts of less
than 0.25 of an inch are forecast for the northwest half of New
Mexico and western Colorado.

For Monday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch
are forecast for portions of southwest Colorado and northwest New
Mexico.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast for
the northwest half of New Mexico and most of Colorado.

Although it has been wet lately, there continues to be abnormally dry
conditions and a few locations in drought on the latest U.S. Drought
Monitor for Texas. In Texas, the area considered to be abnormally dry
is now at 17%. Also, 4% of Texas is experiencing moderate drought
conditions and less than 1% remains in severe drought, particularly
over northeast Texas near the Red River. In New Mexico the drought
monitor shows around 33% of the state experiencing abnormally dry
conditions, with 4% remaining in moderate drought. The precipitation
forecast the next 5 days will not be heavy enough to produce
significant runoff.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...San Bernard Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
Minor to moderate flooding is occurring at East Bernard (EBBT2) and
Boling (BOLT2) respectively.

...Guadalupe Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
The lower Guadalupe near Bloomington (DUPT2) is forecast to rise
above minor flood levels over the next few days.  Other points above
criteria are Gonzales (GNLT2) and Victoria (VICT2) on the Guadalupe
River.

...Neches Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Several sites in the Neches have risen above minor flood levels or
lower over the past couple of days. Neches (NCST2) and Diboll
(DIBT2) have risen above minor flood levels but nearing crest today.
Other creeks and Bayous have reached criteria levels including
Jacksonville (JKST2) at Mud Creeks, Chireno (ATBT2) on Attoyac Bayou
and San Augustine (AYIT2) on Ayish Bayou.  Kountze (KOUT2) on
Village Creek and Sour Lake (SOLT2) on Pine Island Bayou are rising
toward criteria later in the week.

...Sabine Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Rains in the upper Sabine have pushed Mineola (MLAT2) on the Sabine
into minor flood levels and is nearing crest today.  Rabbit Creek at
Kilgore (KLGT2) has crested slightly below moderate flood levels and
is falling rapidly. Other sites in the lower Sabine have swollen to
near criteria levels but also nearing crest.

...Lavaca-Navidad Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Several points in the basin have crested above criteria and falling.
These points include Morales (MRAT2) and Strane Park near Edna
(LSNT2) on the Navidad, Cordele (CODT2) on Sandy Creek and Ganado
(GNDT2) on West Mustang Creek.

...San Jacinto Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Several creeks and bayous have risen or are forecast to rise
slightly above criteria level.  The sites include Lake Creek near
Conroe (FCWT2), Cypress Creek near Hockley (KHOT2), Humble (HMMT2)
and Cleveland (CLDT2) on the West and East Forks of San Jacinto
River respectively.

...Trinity Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Locations in the lower Trinity have swollen to criteria levels but
are expected to crest near current levels as rises have flattened.
These sites include Madisonville (MDST2), Riverside (RVRT2), Liberty
(LBYT2) and Moss Bluff (MBFT2).

...Colorado Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Wharton (WHAT2) on the Colorado River is slightly above criteria and
will crest in the next couple of days.

...Rio Grande Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Points along the Rio Grande have risen to or near criteria levels as
dams release releases this month.  Points above or near criteria are
Candelaria (CDET2), Del Rio (DLRT2), Columbia Bridge (CBBT2) and
Laredo (LDOT2) on the Rio Grande.

...Brazos Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Points along the lower Brazos are rising or have crested slightly
above criteria slightly above action stages.   These sites include
Dime Box (DMYT2) Middle Yegua Creek, Dime Box (DEYT2) on the East
Yegua Creek, Lyons (LYNT2) on Davidson Creek, Normangee (NGET2) on
the Navasota River, Hempstead (HPDT2) and Richmond (RMOT2) both on
the lower Brazos River.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Rainfall has ended over the West Gulf forecast area with several
sites above criteria.  No additional significant rainfall is
expected over the next 5 days.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/NWSWestGulf

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

STORY

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