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Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC
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AGUS74 KFWR 181542
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1041 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

                    VALID JUNE 18 THROUGH JUNE 23

...PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TOMORROW.
A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP BY THE WEEKEND...

                    ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
Several clusters of showers and thunderstorms formed overnight and
moved across areas of North and Central Texas. This activity
continued through the early morning hours and is now moving out of
the WGRFC area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue
for the next 24 hours or so, as a weak cold front remains draped
just south of I-20. Precipitation will begin to taper off tomorrow
as a ridge of high pressure builds and slides toward the east.
Thereafter, warmer and drier weather is expected for the end of the
week and the weekend.

For areas west, the ridge will not be strong enough to completely
squelch the monsoonal moisture over New Mexico and Far West Texas.
This pattern will persist through the week.

For the tropics, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is continuing
advisories for Tropical Depression 2. Current guidance from the NHC
has this system remaining a Tropical Depression through landfall
over Mexico. At this time, this system is not expected to
significantly affect the WGRFC region. However, we will continue to
monitor and will update accordingly.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Wednesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for portions of East
Texas. Lesser amounts are forecast for the remainder of the WGRFC
area.

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, no significant MAP amounts
are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Thursday into Friday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Friday into Sunday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

The ongoing drought remains entrenched across a large part of the
WGRFC area.  About 60 percent of Texas remains in severe drought,
or worse, with 15 percent classified as exceptional drought. In
New Mexico, drought conditions are even more widespread, with 98
percent of the state in severe drought, or worse, with nearly 45
percent classified as exceptional drought.  Some runoff is possible
in the stronger thunderstorms.  However, no widespread significant
runoff is expected the next five days across the WGRFC area.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Nueces Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
Flood flows at Asherton (ASRT2) and Cotulla (COTT2) continue to rise
and expected to crest near moderate flood levels beginning overnight
at Asherton and late this week at Cotulla.  No additional rainfall
is expected for the next 5 days for this area.

...Rio Grande Basin...
...Higher non-flood flows...
Flow at Columbia Bridge (CBBT2) continues to fall and expected below
action stage this afternoon.  No significant rainfall is expected
for this area for the next 5 days.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Much needed rainfall occurred across much of northern half of Texas
from the Big Bend area to Longview, extending into the Texas Hill
Country.  Only small amounts of runoff were generated creating some
small rises in associated local streams and tributaries.

Elsewhere, near or below normal river flows are occurring for the
WGRFC basins. Therefore, no significant flooding is expected.


              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

MCCANTS


$$
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
