Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC
AGUS74 KFWR 051702
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1102 AM CST THU DEC 5 2013
VALID DECEMBER 5 THROUGH DECEMBER 10
...A SERIES OF WINTER STORMS WILL AFFECT THE WGRFC AREA THE NEXT FIVE
A big trough of low pressure extends from northeast Montana through
Nevada to off the southern California coast this morning. This
storm has already produced significant high elevation snowfall to
southern Colorado and northern New Mexico the past 24 hours.
Meanwhile a strong cold front has pushed southeastward across most
of Texas. As the western US upper level trough moves east today
lower level moisture will be increasing from the south. This will
set up a significant overrunning precipitation event where moisture
aloft is lifted up and over the cold air behind the front, allowing
widespread precipitation to develop today and tonight. Depending on
the specific temperature, there will be sleet and freezing rain over
much of northern and western Texas, with snow over southeast New
Mexico and far west Texas. Actual precipitation totals should
remain light to moderate even though a prolonged precipitation event
is expected. It appears that the northeast portion of Texas into
Arkansas may see heavier precipitation where the best lift is
The upper level trough of low pressure will continue to move eastward
into Friday morning allowing for precipitation to continue. But the
trough is forecast to weaken and exit the region quickly later
Friday and the precipitation will temporarily decrease.
A second trough of low pressure is forecast to move across Idaho on
Saturday. Well out ahead of this storm, precipitation is again
forecast to develop Saturday afternoon and evening in the cold air
that will be in place, with the best chances over eastern Texas and
Louisiana. More snow is also forecast to fall over the mountains of
northern New Mexico and southern Colorado. The precipitation is
forecast to linger over southeast Texas and Louisiana into Sunday
morning as the weakening upper low moves over Colorado. Thereafter,
as the storm passes off to our north dry air is forecast to move
into the region. With the exception of northern New Mexico and
southern Colorado, the precipitation is expected to end later
Sunday, with mostly dry weather expected into Monday morning.
A third upper air disturbance is forecast to move over the Colorado
Rockies on Monday which will progress southeastward into Texas on
Tuesday. Unlike the previous disturbances, moisture will be limited
with this storm and widespread precipitation is not expected. But
the cold air associated with this disturbance may generate a few
snow flurries across parts of Texas.
For Today into Friday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 of an inch or more are forecast over the northern two
thirds of Texas (except the panhandle), central and extreme
southeast New Mexico and a good part of Louisiana. The heaviest
precipitation, with MAP amounts of 1.00 inch, are forecast for
northeast Texas. MAP amounts of 0.50 inch are forecast from central
into north central and northeast Texas into northern Louisiana.
MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are forecast over the remainder
of the WGRFC area of responsibility.
For Friday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 of an inch or
more are forecast over the eastern third of Texas and Louisiana.
The heaviest precipitation, with MAP amounts of 0.50 inch, are
forecast for east central Texas into the northern third of
Louisiana. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are forecast over
the eastern two thirds of Texas.
For Saturday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 of an inch are
forecast over the southeastern third of Texas and most of Louisiana.
MAP amounts of 0.25 inch (snow water equivalent) are also forecast
over southern Colorado into northern New Mexico. MAP amounts of
less than 0.25 inch are forecast over most of the WGRFC area of
responsibility except for southwest Texas and southern New Mexico.
For Sunday into Tuesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are
forecast over the eastern half of Texas, Louisiana, much of New
Mexico and Colorado.
The drought situation in Texas continues to improve with only around
6% of the state in extreme drought in some isolated areas. New
Mexico is improving as well with only 4% of that state in extreme
drought, however all of New Mexico still remains in some level of
drought category. Since soils have become moist over most of east
Texas, runoff is likely the next two days. The heaviest
precipitation is forecast over the northeastern third of Texas and
western Louisiana, and this may result in river rises above bankfull
in the river drainages in this area the next 5 days.
The upper Neches River remains in flood conditions from Neches
(NCST2) through Alto (ATOT2) to Diboll (DIBT2). Downstream, along
the mainstem and associated tributaries, higher non-flood flows are
receding and levels are falling slowly.
A wintry storm system is forecast to move through the upper Neches
later tonight through Friday. Rainfall from this system may produce
some minor runoff resulting in bankfull or slightly higher flows but
the below freezing temperatures are expected to produce episodes of
freezing rain and sleet reducing the effects of any runoff.
Therefore, no significant flooding is anticipated over the next 5
A significant winter event will be entering the north Texas region of
the WGRFC area bringing unseasonably cold weather with precipitation
in the form of freezing rain and sleet. Convective activity is
possible as the system passes through the upper reaches of the
Sabine basin but rainfall totals for a 12 hour period are not
expected to cause any flooding more significant than minor criteria.
However, the temperatures are likely to remain below freezing
preventing any significant runoff. With wet soil conditions,
headwater areas such as Greenville (GNVT2) on Cowleech Fork and
Quinlan (QLAT2) on the South Fork are the most susceptible reaches
for minor flooding.
Meanwhile, Deweyville (DWYT2) on the Sabine River near Ruliff remains
in minor flooding but has crested and is expected to begin receding
in the next 24-36 hours.
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Lake Livingston continues to reduce releases as inflows are falling
off. Current release is at 3,000 cfs. Downstream of the lake along
the mainstem, river levels have fallen below bankfull now from
Liberty (LBYT2) through Moss Bluff (MBFT2) and are expected to
continue to fall.
...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
The wintry storm system moving through the region later today and
tomorrow morning may produce some runoff Thursday and Friday. The
most likely scenario from this storm is to produce precipitation in
the form of freezing rain and sleet; therefore, no significant
runoff is forecast from this system.
All other rivers are at or below seasonal flows.
...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.
For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
National Precipitation Analysis:
The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
The US Drought Assessment: