Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS North Central River Forecast Center

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AGUS73 KMSR 051525
HMDMSR

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1024 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

...PRECIPITATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVED ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING... AND INTO NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA
LAST NIGHT.  BY EARLY THIS MORNING THE AREA OF STORMS EXTENDED
ACROSS MINNESOTA FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST... INTO NORTHWEST
IOWA.  RAINFALL TOTALS WERE MAINLY A HALF TO ONE INCH WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS... AND NEAR 2 INCHES FOR A FEW LOCATIONS.

IN THE FORECAST TODAY... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ACROSS MINNESOTA BACK INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHWEST IOWA.  THEN FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK... RAIN
ASSOCIATIED WITH THIS FRONT CONTINUES THE SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND STALL OVER MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS... LEADING TO POTENTIALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER ALREADY SATURATED SOILS.

...HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS...

AREA MAINSTEM RIVERS ARE ON RECESSION AFTER MODERATE TO MAJOR TO
RECORD FLOODING OCCURRED OVER THE PAST WEEK.  LEVELS ON THE
ILLINOIS RIVER REMAIN ABOVE MAJOR FLOOD LEVELS FROM HAVANA TO
HARDIN.  THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DOWNSTREAM OF THE CONFLUENCE WITH
THE ILLINOIS RIVER REMAINS ABOVE MODERATE LEVELS.

HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IS CURRENTLY FORECAST
OVER AREAS WHERE SOILS ARE NOT OVERLY SATURATED... SO SIGNIFICANT
FLOOD ACTIVITY IS NOT LIKELY.  HOWEVER... MORE RAIN EXPECTED
LATER IN THE WEEK IS CURRENTLY TARGETING MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS...
WHERE THE MONTH OF JUNE SAW WIDESPREAD TWO TO TEN INCHES ABOVE
NORMAL RAINFALL TOTALS... AND SEVERAL JUNE PRECIPITATION RECORDS
WERE BROKEN.

FOR ADDITIONAL AND MORE IN-DEPTH INFORMATION CONCERNING RIVER
FORECASTS...PRECIPITATION AND ALL HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION
IN THE NCRFC AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY...PLEASE REFER TO THE NCRFC
WEB PAGE AT:     HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NCRFC


EMERGENCY CALL BACK LIST: MMZ ALH RHR

IF NO RESPONSE FROM THIS LIST... CALL THE DOH...SCH OR HIC.


$$

...RHR/ALH...





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