Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS North Central River Forecast Center

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Hydrometeorological Forecast Discussion
NWS North Central River Forecast Center Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1240 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017

...Precipitation...

In the last 24 hours, a variety of rain fell across much of the
NCRFC area.  The heaviest rain fell in northern Missouri into
western and central Illinois, where it was still raining this
morning.  Half inch totals were common with very isolated streaks
of one to one and a half inches.  Next heaviest was southern
Minnesota, northeast Iowa and neighboring Wisconsin, where quarter
to half inch totals were common and streaks topped out just above
an inch.  Drizzle continued for northern Minnesota, accumulating a
few hundredths to a quarter inch.  Additional areas of rain
showers with tenth to half inch totals fell in central Iowa,
Wisconsin, and Michigan.

Today, the showers in Missouri and Illinois will move north and
east through Chicago and eastern Illinois, spreading into
Wisconsin and lower Michigan.  The wrap-around rain in central
Minnesota will continue to drift south into Iowa during the day,
and fizzle out overnight. Highest totals will be in Illinois from
roughly Springfield through Milwaukee, WI, where widespread totals
will top a half inch, and streaks of one to one and a half inches
are possible.

Wednesday into Thursday, the showers moving into Michigan will
find some renewed upper level support - enough to leave behind
over three quarters of an inch over the southern half of lower
Michigan, with widespread inch and half totals, and isolated
pockets over two inches.  Into the weekend, the pattern remains
slightly unsettled, but is lacking significant organization, so
showers are likely across much of the region, but locations and
intensities are still uncertain.

...Hydrologic Conditions...

Significant flooding is occurring or forecast on the Illinois
River due to multiple rounds of heavy rain over the last few
weeks.

Heavy rainfall from the latest system has also contributed to some
minor flooding and bankfull rises across much of the rest of the
Upper Mississippi and Great Lakes drainages.

As tributary inflows from locations that have seen recent moderate
and major flooding work their way in to the mainstem Mississippi,
flooding is occurring or forecast along the entire system, from
Minnesota to Chester, IL, and on to the south of the NCRFC area.
There is a possibility of significant flooding along some portions
of the Mississippi by next week due to routed flows, and prolonged
recessions if any new precipitation impacts the region in the next
2 weeks.

For additional and more in-depth information concerning river
forecasts, precipitation and all hydrometeorological information
in the NCRFC area of responsibility, please refer to the NCRFC
web page at:     http://www.weather.gov/ncrfc

Emergency Call Back List: RHR... JDT... LNE... JMP

If no response from this list, call the DOH, SCH or HIC.

$$

...jmp/lne...




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