Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGNT40 KWNM 280226
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1026 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

IR SAT IMG HAS MOST OF THE CONVCXN OVR THE CNTRL AND SRN WTRS
WITH HGH LIGHTNG CONCTRN. THE RADAR HAS TSTMS CELLS OVR THE CNTRL
AND SRN REGIONS. AT 0000Z THERE IS A SERIES OF LOWS ALONG A FRNT
THAT STRETCHES FROM S OF GREENLAND THRU LOW 1000 MB 120 NM NE OF
BALT CNYN THEN THRU LOW 1002 MB OVR THE SRN WTRS. HGH PRES 1032 MB
NR 33N ALNG 50W HAS RIDGE XTNDG NE AND SW. INLAND HGH PRES 1025 MB
XTNDS ITS RIDGE THRU THE WRN GRT LAKES INTO THE MIDWEST STATES.
THE PRES GRDNT IS MDST OVR THE WTRS BUT FAIRLY TIGHT JUST E OF THE
REGION. MAX OBS WINDS ARE 30 KT OVR THE FAR N-ERN WHERE THE HGST
SEAS PEAK AT 23 FT. SEAS THEN SUBSIDE TO 9 FT OVR THE FAR NW
PORTIONS AND TO 6 FT OVR THE FAR SW PORTIONS.

THERE IS A BUNCH OF ENRGY EMBDD IN AN UPPRLVL TROF W OF THE
REGION THAT WILL IMPACT THE WX PATTERN OVR THE REGION. LOCALLY
INDCD ENERGY IS NOW APPROACHING THE WRN PARTS OF THE REGION AND
WIL BE RE ENFORCED BY THE ENRGY JUST DESCRIBED ABOVE. UPPRLVL
RIDGE WITH A SHALLOW AMPLTD WIL FOLLOW BEHIND THE TROF
IMMEDIATETLY AND RELAXTHE PRES GRDNT IN THE XTNDD PRD. JUST BEFORE
END OF FCST PRD IS ANOTHER ROUND OF ENERGY THAT WILL TIGHTEN THE
PRS GRDNT AGAIN. SO THE MDL CHOICE SHUD BE ONE THAT WIL MAINATIN A
MODTS PRES GRDNT THAT WILL GENERATE GALE WRNGS IN FEW PLACES IN
THE SHORT TERM AND AGAIN TWD THE END OF FCST PRD.

THE GLBL MDLS HV INITIALIZED WELL AND THEY ARE IN SOME DECENT
AGRMNT IN THE SHORT TERM. SOME DIFFS EXIST IN THE XTNDD PRD MAINLY
IN THE TIMING OF THE SYSM AND STRENGTH OF ITS ASSOCIATED WINDS
SPEEDS. FOR THIS UPDATE WILL CONTINUE WITH GFS. IN THE SHORT TERM
HGH PRES WILL REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE E AND THAT WILL ONLY ALLOW
THE FRONT TO GLIDE NE.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SUMMARY...A DVLPG LOW WILL PASS NE OVER THE NT2 WTRS TONITE INTO
SAT WHILE INTENSIFYING...THEN MOVE OFF TO THE NE LATE SAT AND SAT
NITE. A TROF WILL DVLP OVER THE NRN NT2 WTRS SAT NITE...THEN PASS
SE OF THE NT2 WTRS LATE SUN INTO SUN NITE. A HI PRES RIDGE WILL
BUILD OFSHR SUN...THEN PASS SE ACROSS THE OFSHR WTRS SUN NITE INTO
EARLY MON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E AND SE ACROSS THE OFSHR
WTRS MON INTO EARLY TUE. ANOTHER RIDGE WILL PASS E OVER THE AREA
TUE INTO TUE NITE. ANOTHER DVLPG LOW WILL MOVE SE TO THE NEW
JERSEY COAST TUE NITE...PASS E ACROSS THE NRN NT2 WTRS WED...THEN
MOVE OFF TO THE NE WED NITE. A THIRD RIDGE WILL BUILD OFSHR LATE
WED AND WED NITE.

MODELS...THE 12Z MED RNG MDLS ARE IN GUD OVERALL AGREEMNT ACROSS
THE OFSHR WTRS THRU MON NITE...SO THE REPRESENTATIVE 12Z GFS 30M
SOLN WILL BE USED TO POPULATE THE WIND GRIDS FOR TONITE THRU SAT
NITE...FOLLOWED BY THE 12Z GFS 10M FOR SUN THRU MON NITE. 12Z GEM
LOOKS LIKE AN OUTLYER SOLN FOR TUE THRU WED NITE...SINCE IT TAKES
THE LOW MUCH FARTHER TO THE S AS IT CROSSES THE NT2 WTRS. THERE
ARE SOME MORE MINOR TRAJECTORY AND TIMING DIFFS BTWN THE 12Z GFS
AND THE 12Z ECMWF/UKMET WITH THE LOW FOR TUE THRU WED NITE...SO
WILL USE A 50/50 BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS 10M FOR THIS PRD AS
IT HAS STG SUPPORT FROM THE LATEST WPC MED RNG FCSTR GUIDANCE.

.SEAS...THE 12Z MULTIGRID WW3 AND 12Z ECMWF WAM MDLS INITIALIZED
WELL OVER THE OFSHR WTRS. THE 12Z MWW3 MDL LOOKS GOOD THRU MON
NITE...SO IT WILL BE USED FOR THE SEA HT GRIDS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.
THEN WILL USE A 50/50 BLEND OF THE 12Z MWW3/ECMWF WAM FOR THE
GRIDS FOR TUE THRU WED NITE...TO MATCH UP WITH THE PREFERRED
ATMOS MDLS FOR THIS PRD.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...ESTOFS IS FCSTG A NEG SURGE
OF 1.0 TO 1.5 FT ALONG THE SE COAST TONITE...THEN DIMINISHING SAT.
ESTOFS HAS ANOTHER NEG SURGE UP TO 1.0 FT ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST
MON. THE ETSS HAS CORRESPONDING NEG SURGE VALUES OF 1.0 FT OR
LESS.


.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
.ANZ800...GULF OF MAINE...
     GALE SAT.
.ANZ900...GEORGES BANK EAST OF 68W...
     GALE SAT.
.ANZ810...SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...
     GALE SUN.
.ANZ815...SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...
     GALE SUN.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
.ANZ820...HUDSON CANYON TO BALTIMORE CANYON...
     GALE SAT NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON.
.ANZ915...HUDSON CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     GALE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON.
     GALE POSSIBLE WED.
.ANZ920...BALTIMORE CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     GALE TONIGHT INTO SAT.
     GALE SUN.
     GALE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
.ANZ905...THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL TO THE HAGUE LINE...
     GALE SAT.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE WED.
.ANZ910...EAST OF THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL AND SOUTH OF 39N...
     GALE TONIGHT INTO SAT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE WED.
.ANZ825...INNER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT...
     GALE POSSIBLE MON INTO MON NIGHT.
.ANZ828...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT...
     GALE POSSIBLE MON INTO MON NIGHT.
.ANZ925...OUTER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO HATTERAS CANYON...
     GALE TONIGHT INTO SAT.
     GALE SUN.
     GALE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE WED.
.ANZ930...OUTER WATERS FROM HATTERAS CANYON TO CAPE FEAR...
     GALE TONIGHT INTO SAT.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT.
.ANZ935...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR TO 31N...
     GALE TONIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT.

$$

.FORECASTER MUSONDA/SCOVIL. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



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