Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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AGNT40 KWNM 281836
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
236 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

SUMMARY...A STRONG LOW PRES AREA OVER NEW ENGLAND IS MOVING N. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW PRES CENTER THIS AFTN. AS THE
LOW MOVES N...THE FRONT WILL PUSH E AND SE INTO THE OFF WTRS TNGT
THRU TUE. A WEAK LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE SLOW-MOVG COLD
FRONT OFF THE S CAROLINA COAST BY EARLY TUE. THE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WEAK AND TRACK SLWLY N AND NE THRU WED INTO THU AS THE
FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE WTRS AND WEAKENS. THE
MAIN CONCERN IS LKLY TO CONT TO BE THE LOCALLY HVY TSTMS ASSOC
WITH THE FRONT OVR THE OFF WTRS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
LATEST SATELLITE AND LIGHTNING DATA SHOWS VRY HVY TSTMS OVR
GEORGES BANK THIS AFTN MOVG NE. LOCALLY VRY STRONG WINDS WITH
GUSTS EXCEEDING GALE FORCE ARE LKLY IN AND NR THE HEAVIER TSTMS
TNGT INTO TUE. THE MODERATELY STRONG S-SW WIND FIELD CURRENTLY
OVR MOST OF THE OFF WTRS WILL PERSIST INTO TNGT...AND THEN
DIMINISH BY TUE OVR MOST OF THE WTRS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES E
AND SE INTO THE WTRS. MAX WINDS TO 30 KT STILL APPEAR LKLY AHEAD
OF THE FRONT TNGT MAINLY OVR ERN AND NE NT2 OFF WTRS NR AND E OF
THE GULF STREAM. A MID-AM ASCAT PASS INDICATED MAX WINDS NR 25 KT
IN THESE AREAS ALREADY THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL LKLY IMPROVE
OVR MOST OF THE OFF WTRS BY MID TO LATE WK INTO NEXT WKND AS THE
FRONT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT W AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE
SE OF NEWFOUNDLAND.

MODELS...THE 12Z GFS CONTINUES TO REMAIN CONSISTENT AND IS IN VRY
GUD AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z UKMET...CANADIAN...AND ECMWF MDLS. WE
WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE 12Z GFS FOR THE AFTN PACKAGE...AND CONT
TO USE 30M WINDS NR AND S OF THE GULF STREAM TNGT INTO TUE WHERE
THE STRONGER WINDS ARE MIXING DOWN CURRENTLY. ELSEWHERE AND OTW
WE WILL MAINLY BE USING THE 10M GFS WINDS THRU SAT NGT OVR THE
OFF WTRS. AGAIN...MUCH HIGHER WINDS EXCEEDING GALE FORCE WILL BE
LKLY IN AND NEAR HVY TSTMS OVR THE OFF WTRS DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

SEAS...THE 12Z MWW3 MDL GUID APPEARS TO HAVE INITIALIZED TOO HIGH
MAINLY OVR WTRS N OF THE GULF STREAM...NRN NT2 AND NT1 OFF
WTRS...PER THE LATEST OBS AND ALTIMETER DATA. THE 12Z ECMWF WAM
APPEARS TO HAVE INITIALIZED A BIT BETTER SO WE WILL BE USING THE
12Z ECMWF WAM WV GUID INITIALLY FOR THE AFTN FCST PACKAGE. WE
WILL TWEAK GRIDS AS NEEDED TO FIT WITH THE OBS NOTED JUST PRIOR
TO FCST ISSUANCE. OTW...BY WED OR SO...BOTH MDLS APPEAR SIMILAR
SO WE WILL BE SWITCHING BACK TO THE MWW3/WNA WW3 MDL DURING
WED...AND THEN CONT TO USE THE WW3 MDL GUID INTO THE UPCOMING
WKND. OVRALL... NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM THE PREV FEW OPC FCSTS FOR
THE AFTN PACKAGE. MUCH HIGHER SEAS WILL BE FOUND IN AND NR THE
HEAVIER TSTMS THRU TNGT INTO TUE.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...NA

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
     NONE.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
     NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER MILLS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


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