Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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AGNT40 KWNM 241844
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
244 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

SUMMARY...LOW PRES E OF GEORGES BANK IS MOVG SLWLY NE AWAY FROM
THE WTRS THIS AFTN. THE MORNING ASCAT PASS INDICATED A BROAD AREA
OF 30 KT NW WINDS FROM NR CAPE COD SE OVR THE OFF WTRS WITH GALES
OCCURRING TO THE SE OF THE LOW PRES CENTER...E OF THE OFF WTRS.
THIS IS PRETTY MUCH IN LINE WITH THE ONGOING OPC FCST. CONDITIONS
WILL CONT TO SLWLY IMPROVE OVR THE OFF WTRS TNGT INTO SAT AS THE
LOW MOVES FURTHER TO THE NE TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RATHER QUICKLY SE AND CROSS THE OFF
WTRS SAT NGT INTO SUN NGT. IT STILL APPEARS AS IF THERE MAY BE
ENUF INSTABILITY IN THE STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION TO BRING A
BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES SUN NGT OVR GEORGES BANK AND THE GREAT
SOUTH CHANNEL TO THE HAGUE LN OFF WTRS. THE CONFDC LVL IN THE
GALES OCCURRING SUN NGT IS MODERATE AT THIS TIME. ALSO LOW PRES
IS FCST TO TRACK NE FROM JUST NE OF CUBA...PASSING JUST E OF
BERMUDA LTR SAT AND SAT NGT. THE LOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO OBTAIN
ANY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS PER THE LATEST OUTLOOK FROM NHC.
GALES MAY OCCUR NR THE LOW OVR THE WKND...AS IT PASSES WELL E OF
THE NT2 OFF WTRS. OTW...CONDITIONS ARE FCST TO IMPROVE OVR THE
OFF WTRS MON INTO TUE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS E INTO THE REGION FROM
THE ERN U.S. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NT1 AND NW NT2
WTRS TUE NGT...AND THEN SLIDE E AND SE OVR THE OFF WTRS WED INTO
WED NGT. GALES ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE OVR THE
OFF WTRS WED INTO WED NGT.

MODELS...THE 12Z MDLS ARE IN VRY GOOD AGREEMENT OVR THE OFF WTRS
THRU MON. AS A RESULT WE WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE 12Z GFS FOR TNGT
THRU 00Z TUE/28 OCT. WE WILL USE THE 30M WINDS FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD WHICH WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY FROM THE PREV FCST AND
BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES TO GEORGE BANKS ZONES 805 AND 900
AND ALSO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL ZONE 905 SUN NGT. THESE GALES
WILL BE LOCATED A BIT FURTHER S THAN THE PREV FCST...BUT OVERALL
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FROM THE PREV FCST THRU MON. FROM 00Z
TUE THRU 06Z WED WE WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE 12Z GFS BUT SWITCH TO
THE 10M WINDS AS HIGH PRES SLIDES E OVR THE OFF WTRS. FOR WED AND
WED NGT WE WILL USE A 50-50 BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF
MDLS AS SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES DVLP WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

SEAS...THE 12Z WNA WV WATCH III MDL GUID APPEARS TO HAVE
INITIALIZED WELL OVR THE OFF WTRS PER THE LATEST OBS AND
ALTIMETER DATA. SEA HTS RANGE FROM NR 15 FT E OF THE NE NT2 OFF
WTRS TO 3 FT OFF THE S CAROLINA COAST PER THE 18Z RA1 SEA STATE
ANALYSIS. AS WE WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE 12Z GFS FOR THIS PACKAGE
TNGT INTO TUE NGT WE WILL ALSO STAY CLOSE TO THE WNA WW3 MDL
OUTPUT FOR THAT TIME FRAME. FOR WED AND WED NGT...WE WILL USE A
50-50 BLEND OF THE WNA WW3 AND ECMWF WAM WV GUID.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...THE 12Z ESTOFS CONT TO FCST
NEGATIVE SURGE DVLPG IN THE POSTFRONTAL GRADIENT LATE SAT NITE
INTO EARLY MON ALONG THE NRN MID ATLC AND NEW ENGLD COASTS.
OVERALL...THE LATEST ETSS AND ESTOFS DATA APPEARS REASONABLE THRU
THE WKND INTO NEXT WK.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
.ANZ805...GEORGES BANK WEST OF 68W...
     GALE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT.
.ANZ900...GEORGES BANK EAST OF 68W...
     GALE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
.ANZ905...THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL TO THE HAGUE LINE...
     GALE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT.

$$

.FORECASTER MILLS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



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