Marine Interpretation Message
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AGNT40 KWNM 070823
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
323 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

THE SAT IMG SHOW INCRSNG CONV OVR THE SRN WTRS FROM THE SW BUT
ALMOST NO LGHTNG STRIKES YET. THE RADAR INDC TSTMS CELLS
APPROACHING THE SRN WTRS FROM THE S. THE SREF HAS 20 PERCENT CHNCE
OF TSTMS OVR THE FAR SRN WTRS AND THAT CHNSCE WILL INCRS TO 40
PERCENT SUN AND WILL XTND TO THE CNTRL WTRS MON. AT 06Z HGH PRES
1027 MB NOW NE OF BALT CANYN HAS A RIDGE OVR THE NRN AND CNTRL
WTRS WHILE PRES FALLS DOMINATE THE SRN WTRS INDCTNG FORMATION OF
THE ANTICIPATED LOW PRES THAT WILL DVLP SWIFTLY AND RESULT IN
HURCN FORCE WINDS OVR THE FAR SRN WTRS. THE PRES GRDNT IS VERY
RELAXED ATTM ACRS THE REGION AND THE MAX OBS WINDS ARE 30 KT OVR
THE FAR SW TIP OF THE REGION. THE LATST ASCAT PASS AT 0252Z INDCTD
HGHR WINDS OVR THE SW PARTS OF THE WTRS.

ALL EYES ARE ON AN AREA OF SIGFCNT ENERGY THAT IS EMBDD IN AN
UPPRLVL TROF OVR THE SRN STATES THAT WILL REACH THE WTRS IN THE
SHORT TERM AND ALLOW SFC LOW PRES TO DVLP JUST S OF THE WTRS AND
THEN MOVE N INTO THE WTRS. AS THE ENRGY MOVE OVR THE SRN WTRS LOW
PRES WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY AND WINDS WILL REACH HURCN FORCE. AS IS
THAT IS NOT ENOUFG ANOTHER BUNCH OF SIGFCNT ENERGY WILL DROP FORM
THE N AND THAT SHUD BRING MUCH COOLER AIR THAT SHUD RESULT IN SOME
SNOW OVR THE WTRS.

THE MDLS HAVE INITAILIZED WELL WITH THE OBS AND THEY HAVE DECENT
AGRMNT IN THE SHORT TERM ON THE LOW PRES THAT WILL PASS THRU THE
SRN AND CNTRL WTRS. JUST MNR DIFFS IN THE XTNDD PRD ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE WINDS AS A FRNTL BNDRY PASSES THE WTRS. WILL NOT
MAKE ANY MJR CHNGES TO THE CURR FORECAST AND WIL STICK TO GFS. IN
THE SHORT TERM THE HGH PRES OVR BALT CNYN WILL ZOOM NE AND ALLOW A
LOW PRES TO DVLP TO THE S AND MOVE NE INTO THE WTRS AND WILL RPDLY
INTSFY INTO HURN FORCE.

.SEAS...THE SEAS ARE RELATIVLEY HGHR OVR THE ERN PARTS AND THEY
RANGE BTWN 6 AND 9 FT WHILE THE WRN PARTS HVE SEAS RANGING BTWN 3
AND 6 FT. THE NWW3 MULRI GRID WV MDL HAS A VERY SIMILAR PATTERN TO
THE OBSVD SEAS AND MATCHES THE PEAK VALUES VERY WELL ACRS THE
REGION BUT BECOMES UNDER DONE BY 3 FT OVR THE HS WTRS NR NOVA
SCOTIA AND ALSO IN THE AREA WITH HGHR WINDS NR GREENLAND.


.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...ESTOFS IS STILL SHOWING A
NEGATIVE SURGE IN THE 2 TO 2.5 FT RANGE NEAR THE SE COAST FOR
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...THEN A POSITIVE SURGE OF 1.5 TO 2 FT NEAR
THE MID ATLC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS FOR TODAY INTO EARLY MON.
ALTHO ESTOFS DOES LOOK REASONABLE IT IS VERY POSSIBLE IT COULD END
UP BEING UNDERDONE NEAR THE SE COAST.


.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
.ANZ800...GULF OF MAINE...
     GALE TONIGHT INTO MON NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE THU INTO THU NIGHT.
.ANZ805...GEORGES BANK WEST OF 68W...
     GALE TONIGHT.
     STORM MON.
     GALE POSSIBLE WED INTO THU NIGHT.
.ANZ900...GEORGES BANK EAST OF 68W...
     GALE TONIGHT.
     STORM MON.
     GALE POSSIBLE WED INTO THU NIGHT.
.ANZ810...SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...
     GALE TONIGHT.
     STORM MON.
     GALE POSSIBLE WED INTO THU NIGHT.
.ANZ815...SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...
     GALE TONIGHT INTO MON.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
.ANZ820...HUDSON CANYON TO BALTIMORE CANYON...
     GALE TONIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT.
.ANZ915...HUDSON CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     STORM TONIGHT INTO MON.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE INTO THU NIGHT.
.ANZ920...BALTIMORE CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     GALE TODAY.
     STORM TONIGHT INTO MON.
     GALE MON NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE INTO THU NIGHT.
.ANZ905...THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL TO THE HAGUE LINE...
     STORM TONIGHT INTO MON.
     GALE MON NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE.
     GALE POSSIBLE WED INTO THU NIGHT.
.ANZ910...EAST OF THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL AND SOUTH OF 39N...
     GALE TODAY.
     STORM TONIGHT INTO MON.
     GALE MON NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE INTO THU NIGHT.
.ANZ825...INNER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT...
     GALE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE.
     GALE POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO THU.
.ANZ828...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT...
     GALE TODAY.
     STORM TONIGHT.
     GALE MON NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE.
     GALE POSSIBLE WED NIGHT.
.ANZ925...OUTER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO HATTERAS CANYON...
     GALE TODAY.
     HURRICANE FORCE TONIGHT.
     STORM MON.
     GALE MON NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE INTO THU.
.ANZ830...INNER WATERS FROM CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO CAPE HATTERAS...
     STORM TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
     GALE MON NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED NIGHT.
.ANZ833...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE HATTERAS TO CAPE FEAR...
     GALE EARLY TODAY.
     STORM TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
     GALE MON NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED NIGHT.
.ANZ930...OUTER WATERS FROM HATTERAS CANYON TO CAPE FEAR...
     STORM TODAY INTO MON.
     GALE MON NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE INTO THU.
.ANZ835...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR TO 31N...
     GALE EARLY TODAY.
     HURRICANE FORCE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
     GALE MON NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED NIGHT.
.ANZ935...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR TO 31N...
     STORM TODAY.
     HURRICANE FORCE TONIGHT.
     GALE MON INTO MON NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED NIGHT.

$$

.FORECASTER MUSONDA. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



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