Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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AGNT40 KWNM 280235
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1035 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

GOES WV IMGRY INDC AN UPR RDG OVER THE OFSHR WTRS...AND A WK
SHORTWAVE TROF JUST NE OF THE AREA. THE IR IMGRY INDC SFC HIGH
PRES OVER CENTRAL NT2...AND TD TWO JUST S OF THE NT2...TO THE NE
OF THE BAHAMAS. CRNT SFC RPRTS AND EARLIER ASCAT DATA FM 14Z INDC
WINDS 15 KT OR LESS OVER A MAJORITY OF THE OFSHR ZONES...WITH ERLY
WINDS TO 20 KT IN THE SRN WATERS TO THE N OF TD TWO. THE LAST NHC
ADVISORY INDC TD TWO WL MOVE NE INTO THE SRN WATERS ON SAT...WHILE
STRENGTHENING TO A TROPICAL STORM. THE LTST GLBL MDLS AGREE
SOMEWHAT WELL IN THE SHORT RANGE ON THE TRACK. THE BIGGEST FCST
PROBLEM IS WHEN THE SYSTEM REACHES THE COAST...AND WHETHER OR NOT
IT WILL RECURVE TO THE NE AS THE SRN EXTENT OF AN UPR TROF MOVING
IN FM THE W ON SUN CAUSES THE SYS TO MOVE NE. THE 12Z ECMWF/GEM
AGREE WELL ON IT...AND TAKE IT SLOWLY TO THE NE. THE 12Z UKMET
INDC THE SYS WL GET PICKED UP...AND SWEPT OUT OF THE AREA
QUICKLY...WHILE THE 18Z GFS INDC THE SYS WL MOVE INLAND AND DRIFT
NE ALONG THE COAST.

ON MON...THE MDLS INDC THE AFOREMENTIONED TROF WL MOVE THRU
NT1...AS THE ASSOC SFC BNDRY MOVES E THRU THE OFSHR WATERS. THE
18Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF ARE IN RSNBLY GUD AGRMT ON THE TRACK OF THE
FRONT...THO THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH THE WINDS. THE PREV
FCST FAVORED THE 12Z ECMWF SOLN...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE...SO
PLANNING ON STAYING NEAR IT FOR THIS SYSTEM. OTRW THE MDLS ALL
INDC HIGH PRES WL BUILD OVER THE N PORTION WED...SO PLANNING OIN
STAYING WITH THE 12Z ECMWF FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PD.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE WRN ATLANIC WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATERS OVR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE THE FAR SRN WATERS WHICH WILL COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A LOW CENTER WHICH WILL TRACK NE TOWARDS THE SE CST THIS WEEKEND.
AFTER COORDINATING WITH TAFB IS LIKLY THAT NHC WILL START A
TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE SW ATLANTIC VERY SOON. IT IS LIKELY THAT
PRODUCTS COULD BE DELAYED AS A RESULT...MAINLY THE MID ATLANTIC
WATERS. WILL PRIMARILY MAINTAIN THE SAME GRIDS AS THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE WATERS...WITH ADJUSTMENTS AS NEEDED FOR THE LOW CENTER.
THE 12Z GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT OVR NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS MUCH OF THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A RIDGE AXIS. EXPECT THE LOW CENTER...OR REMANTS...TO MOVE N
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE
MODELS DO DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH THE SPEED OF THE LOW CENTER AS IT
APPROACHES THE CST...THE GFS IS THE FASTEST SOLN...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS SOMEWHAT SLOWER.

SEAS...BOTH THE WNA AND WAM INITIALIZED WELL ACROSS THE WATERS.
WILL PRIMARILY KEEP THE EARLIER GRIDS AND MAKE NEEDED ADJUSTMENTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CENTER.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...THE 12Z MODELS SHOW A
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE SURGE MOVING INTO THE SC COAST SAT INTO SUN...AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW MOVING IN FROM THE SE STARTS TO MOVE TO THE
COAST.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
     NONE.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
.ANZ835...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR TO 31N...
     TROPICAL STORM SAT INTO SUN.
     TROPICAL STORM POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT.

$$

.FORECASTER KELLS/SHAW. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



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