Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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AGNT40 KWNM 302018
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
317 PM EST FRI 30 JAN 2015

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

1530Z HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT OVERPASSES ONLY COVERED OFFSHORE
AREAS BEHIND COLD FRONT AND INDICATED EXPANSIVE 25 TO 30 KT
WINDS WITH ONLY A FEW GALE RETURNS OVER INNER WATERS S OF CAPE
FEAR. STRONG COLD FRONT PASSED BUOY 41002 AROUND 18Z AT WHICH
TIME WINDS JUMPED TO 33 G 39 KT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS THAT ARCTIC AIRMASS SHOULD USHER ITS
WAY OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO SAT ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED WIDESPREAD
HIGH CONFIDENCE CONFIDENCE GALES. 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF WERE
SLIGHTLY WEAKER WITH WINDS OVER W QUAD OF INTENSIFYING LOW WHICH
IS MOVING E OVER NEW ENGL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER GIVEN
MOMENTUM TRANSFER DEPICTED BY LATEST GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS STILL
POTENTIAL TO MIX SOME STORM FORCE WINDS TO SFC EARLY SAT. SO
WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE WILL CONTINUE WITH STORM WARNINGS
GULF OF MAINE AND GEORGES BANK. THRU AT LEAST SUN THE HIGHER 12Z
GFS 30M WINDS LOOK MOST REASONABLE.

12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF ARE THEN IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF
NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM LATE THIS WEEKEND THRU MON NIGHT...WITH GFS
ONLY ABOUT THREE HOURS OR SO FASTER THAN ECMWF OVER OFFSHORE
WATERS MON AFTERNOON AND MON NIGHT. 12Z UKMET CONTINUED TO BE
NRN SOLUTION WHILE 12Z GLOBAL GEM TRENDED TOWARD GFS/ECMWF AND
WITH TIMING MORE IN LINE WITH SLIGHLY SLOWER ECMWF. AS FOR WINDS
GIVEN 65 TO 75 KT LOW LEVEL JET SETTING UP OVER GULF STREAM WILL
UPGRADE OUTER ZONES ANZ925/ANZ920/ANZ910/ANZ905 TO STORM MON
WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. THERE IS ALSO EQUALLY AS MUCH
POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO INCREASE TO STORM BEHIND LOW/COLD FRONT
OVER THESE NERN MID ATLC ZONES MON NIGHT. IN THIS STRONG CAA
WITH TYPICALLY UNDERDONE ECMWF SFC WINDS UP TO 45 KT AGAIN HAVE
MED TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WILL WINDS WILL INCREASE TO STORM AT
LEAST OVER OUTERMOST NERN NT2 WATERS. FURTHER OUT IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SHOWED LITTLE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY
WITH GFS NOW DVLPG SRN STREAM LOW (LIKE THE 00Z ECMWF) AND 12Z
ECMWF TRENDED AWAY FROM AMPLIFYING SRN STREAM SOLUTION. GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY PLAN TO USE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH FAVORING LESS WAVE
DEVELOPMENT SO WILL USE 12Z ECMWF WED NIGHT AND BEYOND.

.SEAS...BUOY 41002 REPORTED 12 FT AT 19Z WHICH IS ABOUT 2 TO 3
FT HIGHER THAN BOTH 12Z MWW3 AND 12Z ECMWF WAM. 12Z ECMWF WAM IS
SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN 12Z MWW3 TONIGHT AND SAT AND GIVEN
CURRENT TREND AM FAVORING THESE HIGHER SIG WV HGTS. MODELS ARE
IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH PREFRONTAL GALES/STORM FORCE WINDS MON
BUT THEN ECMWF WAM IS HIGHER IN N TO NW WINDS BEHIND LOW/COLD
FRONT MON NIGHT.  WILL USE A 3:1 ECMWF WAM TO MWW3 BLEND TONIGHT
THRU SAT NIGHT AND AGAIN MON/MON NIGHT. OTHERWISE WILL POPULATE
WITH 50/50 BLEND.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...12Z ESTOFS IS SHOWING A
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE NEGATIVE SURGE THAN THE 12Z ETSS ALONG THE
NRN MID ATLC AND NEW ENGL COASTS TONIGHT AND SAT. DIFFERENCES
ARE -1 TO -2 FT. OVER PAST SEVERAL STRONG OFFSHORE WIND EVENTS
ESTOFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY TOO NEGATIVE WITH SURGE SO VALUES
SHOWN BY ETSS ARE LIKELY MORE REASONABLE.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
.ANZ800...GULF OF MAINE...
     GALE TONIGHT.
     STORM SAT.
     GALE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON INTO MON NIGHT.
.ANZ805...GEORGES BANK WEST OF 68W...
     GALE TONIGHT.
     STORM SAT.
     GALE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON INTO MON NIGHT.
.ANZ900...GEORGES BANK EAST OF 68W...
     GALE TONIGHT.
     STORM SAT.
     GALE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON INTO MON NIGHT.
.ANZ810...SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...
     GALE TONIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON INTO MON NIGHT.
.ANZ815...SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...
     GALE TONIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON INTO MON NIGHT.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
.ANZ820...HUDSON CANYON TO BALTIMORE CANYON...
     GALE TODAY INTO SAT NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT.
.ANZ915...HUDSON CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     GALE TONIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON INTO MON NIGHT.
.ANZ920...BALTIMORE CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     GALE TODAY INTO SAT NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT.
     STORM POSSIBLE MON.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT.
.ANZ905...THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL TO THE HAGUE LINE...
     GALE TODAY INTO SUN.
     STORM POSSIBLE MON INTO MON NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE.
.ANZ910...EAST OF THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL AND SOUTH OF 39N...
     GALE TODAY INTO SAT NIGHT.
     STORM POSSIBLE MON INTO MON NIGHT.
.ANZ825...INNER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO CAPE CHARLES
LIGHT...
     GALE TODAY INTO SAT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT.
.ANZ828...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT TO CURRITUCK
BEACH LIGHT...
     GALE TODAY INTO SAT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT.
.ANZ925...OUTER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO HATTERAS
CANYON...
     GALE TODAY INTO SAT NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT.
     STORM POSSIBLE MON.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT.
.ANZ830...INNER WATERS FROM CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO CAPE
HATTERAS...
     GALE TODAY INTO SAT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT.
.ANZ833...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE HATTERAS TO CAPE FEAR...
     GALE TONIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT.
.ANZ930...OUTER WATERS FROM HATTERAS CANYON TO CAPE FEAR...
     GALE TODAY INTO SAT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT.
     STORM POSSIBLE MON.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT.
.ANZ835...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR TO 31N...
     GALE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT.
.ANZ935...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR TO 31N...
     GALE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT.

$$

.FORECASTER CLARK. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



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