Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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AGNT40 KWNM 221913
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
313 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

BROAD HIGH PRES OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL MOVE SE AS COLD FRONT
SLOWLY APPCHS FM THE NW. MODELS HAVE HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
TIMNIG OF THIS FRONT FOR A FEW DAYS AND AGREE NO TAKING FRONT OFF
THE COAST N OF CAPE MAY ARND DAYBREAK THU. EXPECT CURRENT TO
CHANGE LTTL. GFS/NAM/ECMWF/UKMET INCRS SW WINDS TO 20 TO 25 KT MAX
OVR THE GULF OF MAINE WED. BY LATE THU...FRONT TO EXTEND FM S NOVA
SCOTIA SW TO THE VA CAPES...WITH LGT TO MOD SW WINDS AHD OF THE
FRONT. THE GFS DVLPS SCNDRY WVS ALONG THE FRONT THEN TRACKS THEM
NE. THIS KEEP A SW GRADIENT OF 20 TO 30 KT AHD OF TH FRNOT THRU
FRI. THE ECMWF AND UKMET SUPPORT THIS BUT ARE NOT AS
AGRESSIVE...ESP WITH THE LAST LOW THU NGT/FRI. WILL LIKELY BLEND
IN THE UKMET OR ECMWF TO SMOOTH OUT THESE STRNGR FTRS. WHILE THE
NTHRN PART OF THE FRONT MVS OFF TO THE E...MODELS AGREE ON SRN END
DSIPNG NR HTTRS CNYN FRI NGT/SAT.

BY SUN...THE GFS BCMS AN OUTLIER NI BRINGING CLDS UPR LOW ACRS THE
GRT LAKES WHILE THE UKMET/ECMWF HOLD A WKR S/W WV FTHR W AND ARE
MORE PROGRESSIVE OVR THE ERN ATLC. PREFER A UKMET/ECMWF FCST OF
DVLPNG A WEAK SFC LOW OVT THE MID ATLC RNG BY 12Z SUN...AND TAKING
THIS LOW ENE ACRS THE SRN NEW ENGLAND WATERS SUN/SUN NGT. THE GEM
LENDS SOME SUPPORT TO THE GFS...BUT ITS 500 MB PTTRN IS MORE LIKE
THE ECMWF/UKMET. WILL FOLLOW A 70ECMWF/30UKMET BLEND AND WL WILL
FCST INCRSNG SW FLOW OVR THR SRN AND MID ATLC WATERS AT THIS
TIME...BUT LIMIT WINDS TO 25 KT DUE TO MODEL UNCERTAINTY.


.SEAS...THE 12Z MULTIGRID WAVEWATCH III INITILIZED SEAS WELL...
FWLLNG THE 06Z RUN WHICH WAS ABOUT 1 FT TOO HIGH. FCST GDNC LOOKS
GOOD AND WILL BE FOLLOWED CLOSELY...EXCEPT WILL TRANSITION OVER TO
THE ECMWF WAM OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE ECMWF WINDS FIELD IS
PREFERRED OVR THE GFS WINDS.


.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.


.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
     NONE.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
     NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER PROSISE. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


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