Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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AGPN40 KWNM 011546
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
746 AM PST SUN FEB 1 2015

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.

A WK CDFNT IS OVER THE PZ5 WTRS AND FAR NW NRN CA OFSHR WTRS AT
12Z WHILE AN ASCD LOW CNTR WHICH FORMED ON THE FNT OVERNIGHT IS NW
OF THE WTRS NR 52N140W WITH GALES N OF THE OCLN EXTENDING TO QUEEN
CHARLOTTES. HIGH PRES RIDGES INTO NRN AND CENTRAL CA WTRS WHILE A
WK CSTL TROF REMAINS ALG CA CST. 1130Z AND 1230Z RAPIDSCAT PASSES
SHOW STRONGEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KT OVER OUTER WA WTRS AND IN THE FAR
N WITH HIGHER WINDS TO THE N IN CNDN WTRS. THE PASSES MISSES THE
INNER ZONES OF CENTRAL AND SRN CA.

00Z/06Z GFS REMAIN IN GOOD AGRMT WITH OTHER GLOBAL MDLS TODAY
THRU TUE NIGHT BUT WED AND BYND THERE CONT TO BE DIFFERENCES IN
TRACK/STRENGTH OF SVRL STG LOWS MOVG NE AND N AND PASSING W OF THE
OFSHR WTRS. EXPECTING LTLCHG IN THE SYNOPSIS WITH A PAIR OF WK
CDFNTS PASSING THRU PZ5 AND NRN CA WTRS THRU MON NIGHT WITH THE
SECOND FNT STALLING NR NRN CA WTRS MON NIGHT AND THEN RETURNING N
AS A WARM FRONT TUE AND TUE NIGHT AS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF STG
LOWS MOVS INTO ERN N PAC BTWN 140W AND 150W. 00Z/06Z GFS IS
SHOWING SOME CONSISTENCY IN TRACK OF FIRST LOW WED AND WED NIGHT
AND APPRS NR MIDDLE OF MDL SPREAD. AFTER THAT PATTERN BCMS MORE
CHAOTIC AS SERIES OF OTHER LOWS TRACK TO E AND SE OF FIRST
LOW...ESPCLY WED NIGHT AND BYND. 00Z GFS APPRS BEST FIT TO LATEST
WPC MED RNG GUIDANCE MAINTAINING MAIN LOW TO W AS MAIN SYSTEM
WHILE PUSHING CDFNT E TWD OFSHR WTRS. THIS FNT THEN APCHS PAC NW
CST THU NIGHT PER MDL CONSENSUS. USING 00Z GFS FOR WND GRIDS THRU
THU NIGHT BASED ON CONSISTENCY AND GOOD FIT TO MED RANGE GUIDANCE
AND TRANSISTIONED TO 00Z ECMWF BEYOND DAY 5. LITTLE CHANGE
EXPECTED TO WRNG HEADLINES.

SEAS...12Z SEA STATE ANAL AGREES WELL WI A FOOT WITH SEA STATE
GRIDS WHICH ARE BASED ON 00Z MWW3 AND WITH 00Z GFS USED THRU PRD
CONTG TO USE 00Z MWW3 FOR FCST.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE 06Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A COLD FRONT OVER THE FAR W
PORTIONS OF THE WA/OR OFFSHORE WATERS EXTENDING SW. HIGH PRES
RIDGE N AND CENTRAL CA WATERS AND FAR NW S CA WATERS. ASCAT AND
RAPID SCAT PASSES FROM LATE SAT EVENING INDICATED WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS OVER THE OFFSHORE AND COASTAL WATERS.

THE 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD...ROUGHLY FROM TODAY THROUGH 12Z WED. FROM 12Z
WED AND BEYOND...THERE CONTINUE TO BE DIFFERENCES WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF SEVERAL STRONG LOWS FCST TO PASS W OF THE OFFSHORE
WATERS. FOR TODAY THROUGH TUE NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED
ABOVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WA/OR/N CA WATERS TODAY WHILE
WEAKENING. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT AND MON. WINDS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW GALE WITH BOTH OF
THESE FRONTS...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE NW WA
WATERS LATER TONIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD TO 12Z WED AND BEYOND...THE
MODELS DO SEEM TO BE COMING CLOSER TOGETHER COMPARED TO THE PAST
FEW RUNS...ALTHOUGH THERE CONTINUE TO BE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
WITH SEVERAL LOW PRES SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO REMAIN W OF THE OFFSHORE
WATERS DURING THIS PERIOD. THE INITIAL STRONG LOW WILL PASS W OF
THE AREA WED AND WED NIGHT. THE GFS/CMC ARE REASONABLY CLOSE...AND
APPEAR TO BE DECENT COMPROMISES BETWEEN THE FASTER UKMET AND THE
SLOWER ECMWF. ANOTHER LOW WILL PASS W OF THE AREA THU INTO THU
NIGHT WITH COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE WATERS. EVEN THOUGH THERE
CONTINUE TO BE DIFFERENCES WITH HANDLING OF LOW...THE MODELS ALL
DO INDICATE GALES WITH THE INITIAL SYSTEM WED NIGHT...AND THE
SECOND SYSTEM THU INTO THU NIGHT. WILL POPULATE GRIDS USING THE
GFS 10M WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CONFDC ON WARNINGS IN THE
LOW TO MDT RANGE.

.SEAS...THE 06Z SEA STATE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT ONBSERVED SEAS
CONTINUE TO BE WITHIN A FT OF THE MWW3 MLD VALUES. SINCE WILL BE
USING THE GFS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WILL ALSO POPULATE WAVE GRIDS
USING THE MWW3.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
.PZZ800...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE SHOALWATER...
     GALE POSSIBLE THU.
.PZZ900...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE SHOALWATER...
     GALE POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO THU.
.PZZ805...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CAPE LOOKOUT...
     GALE POSSIBLE THU INTO THU NIGHT.
.PZZ905...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CAPE LOOKOUT...
     GALE POSSIBLE THU.
.PZZ810...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO FLORENCE OR...
     GALE POSSIBLE THU INTO THU NIGHT.
.PZZ910...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO FLORENCE OR...
     GALE POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO THU.
.PZZ815...INNER WATERS FROM FLORENCE OR TO POINT ST. GEORGE...
     GALE POSSIBLE THU INTO THU NIGHT.
.PZZ915...OUTER WATERS FROM FLORENCE OR TO POINT ST. GEORGE...
     GALE POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO THU.

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...
.PZZ820...INNER WATERS FROM POINT ST. GEORGE TO POINT ARENA...
     GALE POSSIBLE THU INTO THU NIGHT.
.PZZ920...OUTER WATERS FROM POINT ST. GEORGE TO POINT ARENA...
     GALE POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO THU.
.PZZ825...INNER WATERS FROM POINT ARENA TO PIGEON POINT...
     GALE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT.
.PZZ925...OUTER WATERS FROM POINT ARENA TO PIGEON POINT...
     GALE POSSIBLE THU INTO THU NIGHT.
.PZZ930...OUTER WATERS FROM PIGEON POINT TO POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS...
     GALE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT.

$$

.FORECASTER BANCROFT/KOSIER. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


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