Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGPN40 KWNM 211549
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
849 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.

CD FNT WAS MOVG E OVR THE WA OFFSHR THIS MRNG AND SHUD SLOW AS
DVLPG LOW PRES WELL W OF THE WTRS MOVS NE INTO THE WA/OR WTRS
LATER THIS AFTN AND TNGT. MDLS ARE IN DECENT AGRMT WITH LOW PRES
TRACK INTO THE WTRS. THE GFS IS QUICKER THAN THE UKMET/GEM/ECMWF
WHICH WAS THE TREND FM YDYS GUID. THE WWIII ENP GUID IS HIGHER
WITH SEAS THAT DVLP OVR THE ERN WA/OR WTRS THAN THE ECMWF WV GUID
AND IS ABT 3 FT HIER. THE GFS HAS BEEN STGR WITH THE ASSOC WINDS
THE PAST SVRL DAYS...ALTHO AM NOT ENTIRELY CONVINCED SEAS WL BE AS
HIGH AS WWIII INDICATES. WL STAY WITH GRIDS AS THEY ARE AND
REEVALUATE WITH 12Z MDL GUID. LATER IN THE WEEK AS LOW PRES
APPROACHES FM THE W LATE THU AND FRI THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING
BETTER AGRMT WITH LOW PRES MOVG NWD INTO THE WA/OR WTRS THAN YDYS
GUID. OVERALL WL MAKE FEW CHANGES WITH THE GRIDS WITH THE UPDATED
FCST.



-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

WRM AND CDFNTS ASCD WITH STORM CNTR NW OF WTRS ARE APCHG NRN WTRS.
GOOD ASCAT-A CVRG APRS TO SUGGEST 00Z ECMWF AND GFS BL WNDS HAVE
GOOD REPRESENTATION OF CONDS IN S TO SW FLOW AHD OF SYSTEM. ALSO
AN AREA OF PINCHING EFFECT AGAINST PT CONCEPTION IS SHOWING UP IN
SML AREA OF 25 KT IN THAT AREA. SOME OF BUOYS IN THAT AREA ARE
SHOWING SUSTAINED 25 KT.

NOTING THE ABV...WITH GOOD MDL AGRMT IN THE NEAR TERM THRU THU
NIGHT HAVE POPULATED WNDS WITH 00Z GFS 10M WNDS AND DID NOT
ATTEMPT TO EDIT OUT ANY GALE FRC GRIDS AHD OF TODAY AND TONIGHTS
FNT. IT AAPPRS WE WL BE ADDING PREFNTL MRGL GALES IN THE CENTRAL
PZ5 OUTER ZONES FOR LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. EXPECTING GOOD PUSH
OF SLY PREFNTL WNDS ESPCLY AGAINST CSTL ZONES ESPCLY N AND CNTRL OREGON
CST. NO EXPANSION INTO NRN CA EXPECTED.

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT FRI AND SAT WITH A MENACING POTENT
UPR LVL CLOSED LOW DROPPING DOWN INTO EPAC UPR TROF AND IMPACTING
OFFSHORES MAINLY PZ5 AREA. 00Z GEM IS STRONGEST SAT AND ECMWF AND
GFS SPRT WDSPRD GALES IN PZ5 AREA WHILE UKMET SPLITS ENERGY BTWN
NRN CNTR AND ONE MOVG INTO NRN CA WTRS. AS PREVIOUS FCSTR DID HAVE
DID 50/50 BLEND OF ECMWF AND GFS WHICH TONES DOWN WNDS SOMEWHAT
MORE TWD A WEAKER MED RNG GUIDANCE FM WPC WHICH DOES NOT SPRT
GALES ANYWHERE. THIS BLEND PRODUCES MAINLY 25 OR 30 KT BUT SML
AREAS OF GALES OUTER WTRS IN TWO GRIDS...WHICH ARE EDITED OUT.
THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THIS DAY 4/5 FCST.

.SEAS...THE 00Z ENP WWIII GUID APPEARS TO HAV INIT WELL OVR THE
OFFSHR WTRS. SEE NO MAJOR DIFFS IN MDLS AND USED 00Z MWW3 BUT WITH
MORE UNCERTAINTY FRI AND SAT BLENDED THE TWO MDLS FOR THAT TIME
FRAME.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...NA


.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
.PZZ800...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE SHOALWATER...
     GALE TONIGHT.
.PZZ805...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CAPE LOOKOUT...
     GALE TONIGHT.
.PZZ905...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CAPE LOOKOUT...
     GALE TODAY.
.PZZ810...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO FLORENCE OR...
     GALE TONIGHT.
.PZZ910...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO FLORENCE OR...
     GALE TODAY.
.PZZ815...INNER WATERS FROM FLORENCE OR TO POINT ST. GEORGE...
     GALE TONIGHT.

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...
     NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER ROWLAND/BANCROFT. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


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