Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXHW01 KWNH 241204
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
804 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VALID 00Z MON MAY 25 2015 - 00Z MON JUN 01 2015

HEADING INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK, GUIDANCE EXPECTS ENERGY
FEEDING INTO THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE STATE TO PULL
THE OVERALL TROUGH AXIS A LITTLE WESTWARD.  THIS EVOLUTION
ENCOURAGES A RETREAT OF THE EASTERN SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE
NORTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS, LEADING TO A LIGHTER TREND FOR
NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INITIALLY AFFECTING THE AREA.  THEREFORE
SHOWER ACTIVITY GENERALLY FOCUSED OVER WINDWARD TERRAIN MAY AT
TIMES BECOME INFLUENCED BY SEA AND LAND BREEZE BOUNDARIES DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.  A SURFACE TROUGH MAY DISRUPT TRADE
FLOW DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEAK BUT OVERALL FROM LATE WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND THE SURFACE PATTERN SHOULD BECOME MORE
SUPPORTIVE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES AND WINDWARD FOCUSED
RAINFALL.  EXPECT LOWEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF THE PERIOD
TO BE NORTHWEST OF THE BIG ISLAND EARLY IN THE WEEK.  AFTER THAT
TIME INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS OF PWATS
REACHING AT LEAST 1.50 INCHES BUT WITH DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING AND
LOCATION.  NOTE THAT FROM THU NIGHT ONWARD 00Z/06Z GFS RUNS BECOME
MORE AMPLIFIED THAN MOST OTHER GUIDANCE, FIRST WITH THE TROUGH TO
THE NORTHEAST/NORTH OF THE STATE AND THEN BY SUN WITH THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.  THUS AT THE VERY
LEAST GFS RUNS COULD BE A LITTLE PREMATURE WITH THE NORTHWESTWARD
MIGRATION OF HIGHER PWATS.

RAUSCH

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