Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXHW01 KWNH 241155
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
755 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2016

VALID 00Z THU AUG 25 2016 - 00Z THU SEP 01 2016

ENSEMBLES WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN
ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC DURING THE NEXT WEEK, SHOWING A
RETROGRESSION OF THE UPPER RIDGE/CLOSED HIGH FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA THIS WEEK SOUTHWESTWARD NEXT WEEK. SHORT-TERM HEAVY
RAINFALL THREAT WILL SUBSIDE INTO THURSDAY FROM SE TO NW OVER THE
ISLAND CHAIN AS THE PW PLUME DIMINISHES AND MOVES WESTWARD TOWARD
A SURFACE BOUNDARY WELL TO THE NW OF THE REGION. THEREAFTER, A
MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND PATTERN WILL RESUME WHICH FAVORS SHOWERS
OVER WINDWARD AREAS. MODEL/ENSEMBLES CONSENSUS SEEMS APPROPRIATE.

THE MODELS SHOW SEVERAL POSSIBLE TROPICAL SYSTEMS DEVELOPING EAST
AND/OR SOUTH OF THE 50TH STATE DURING THE PERIOD. ENSEMBLES
GENERALLY KEEP ANYTHING THE DEVELOPS IN THE EASTERN BASIN EAST OF
150W THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.


FRACASSO

$$





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