Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXHW01 KWNH 051217
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
717 AM EST FRI FEB 05 2016

VALID 00Z SAT FEB 06 2016 - 00Z SAT FEB 13 2016

IT IS STILL THE CASE THAT THE HAWAIIAN WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE
NEXT WEEK WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
ACROSS THE ISLANDS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY IN A QUICKLY
AMPLIFYING MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PACIFIC. THERE IS STILL VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS TIMING AND
STRENGTH AND A COMPOSITE OF QUITE COMPATABLE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS PREFERRED. GIVEN MARGINAL MOISTURE POOLING EXPECTED
ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, THERE
SHOULD GENERALLY BE LIMITED SHOWER POTENTIAL. THE PRIMARY IMPACTS
WILL BE A FAST AND STRONG WIND SHIFT AND AIRMASS CHANGE LEADING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE POTENTIAL THEN EXISTS FOR ANOTHER COLD
FRONT TO REACH THE ISLANDS IN ABOUT A WEEK AS ANOTHER MID-UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPULSE DIGS TOWARD THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST,
BUT SUPPORT FOR PASSAGE IS LESS CERTAIN.

SCHICHTEL

$$




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