Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXHW01 KWNH 011212
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
702 AM EST SUN FEB 01 2015

VALID 00Z MON FEB 02 2015 - 00Z MON FEB 09 2015

THE 1/00Z ECENS/ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST CONSISTENT SOLUTION
ACROSS THE PACIFIC AND GULF OF ALASKA. ITS SOLUTION FEATURE
SEVERAL MID-LATITUDE FRONTAL PASSAGES---NAMELY NEXT TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY. AND FEATURES A DEEP PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
MIGRATING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. IT LOOKED
LIKE THE GEFS/GFS IS STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY AN ERRONEOUS SOLUTION
THAT FEATURES AN ARCTIC TROUGH THAT MIGRATES INTO THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF ALASKA---RATHER THAN ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND
DOWNSTREAM INTO THE CENTRAL USA (THE ECMWF VERSION).

BEYOND THIS BIG DISCONNECT---
THERE WOULD NOT BE A LARGE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GEFS/ECENS ALOFT
WITH 500MB HEIGHTS SOUTH OF 30N LATITUDE THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE
`SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION" AND A SERIES OF SURFACE WAVES ALONG THE
PACIFIC COLD FRONT IN THE EAST CENTRAL PACIFIC---AND SUBTROPICAL
PACIFIC...APPEARS TO BE A FEATURE OF THE PATTERN FOR ANOTHER 7
DAYS.

CONTINUE WITH THE RECOMMENDATION FOR THE 1 FEB/00Z ECENS AND
DETERMINISTIC ECMWF SOLUTION THROUGH DAY 6---WITH RESPECT TO
`TRACK-ABLE` SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND CYCLOGENESIS ALONG 35N BETWEEN
140W-155W.

THE ECENS AND ITS UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN SOLUTION ANCHORS A
SERIES OF MODERATELY-INTENSE SURFACE WAVES NORTH AND WEST OF
HAWAI`I THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE SEQUENCING AND EVOLUTION---HANDLED
WITH BETTER OVERALL SUCCESS VERSUS THE GFS/GEFS.

VOJTESAK


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