Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS01 KWBC 050855
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
454 AM EDT SAT SEP 05 2015

VALID 12Z SAT SEP 05 2015 - 12Z MON SEP 07 2015

...HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR MINNESOTA AND EXTREME
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY...

THE MAIN SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE US OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IS A
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM MANITOBA/ONTARIO/HUDSON BAY AREA
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND SOUTHWEST INTO IDAHO AND NEVADA. AN
EASTWARD PROGRESSION WILL BE MINIMAL UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN THE
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS. A SERIES OF
WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE THROUGH THE FLOW,
ALLOWING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE AND PERSIST
FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID-LEVELS WILL BE JUST COLD ENOUGH WITH THIS TROUGH FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF MONTANA, IDAHO AND WYOMING TO HAVE A RAIN AND
SNOW MIX.

THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM COMBINED WITH THE DURATION
OF THE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY RAISES CONCERN OF FLASH
FLOODING GIVEN THAT HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME AREAS
MAY RECEIVE 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH SUNDAY- MINNESOTA WILL BE
THE MAIN AREA OF FOCUS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
HIGHLIGHTED MOST OF THE STATE, IN ADDITION TO A NARROW SWATH OF
WISCONSIN ALONG THE STATE LINE, AS HAVING A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CENTRAL ROCKIES BY MONDAY.

MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S., WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION.

SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE AREA. MANY LOCATIONS WILL OBSERVE TEMPERATURES THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND THAT ARE A FEW DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT, NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY, ALL THE WAY TO
THE SOUTHEAST STATES.


CAMPBELL

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
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