Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS01 KWBC 210744
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
343 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

VALID 12Z THU AUG 21 2014 - 12Z SAT AUG 23 2014

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY...

...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC...

...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH
PLAINS...

A PERSISTENT BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL HAVE UPPER-LEVEL
IMPULSES TRANSITING THE REGION ALONG WITH MOISTURE RICH AIR
POOLING OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.


MEANWHILE, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ROUGHLY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
WILL HAVE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH WHILE
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL AID IN PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS AS
WELL AS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY.  IN ADDITION,
UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY FRIDAY EVENING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST
AND EXPAND INTO PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN BY THURSDAY EVENING.  THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
ROCKIES ON FRIDAY SPILLING OVER INTO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
BY FRIDAY EVENING.  FURTHERMORE, GENERAL INSTABILITY AND AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL AID IN PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF FLORIDA THROUGH FRIDAY.

ZIEGENFELDER


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
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