Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS01 KWBC 190800
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
259 AM EST Mon Feb 19 2018

Valid 12Z Mon Feb 19 2018 - 12Z Wed Feb 21 2018

...Heavy snow  over the Northern Plains into the Central Rockies
and the Upper Great Lakes...

...Heavy rain and flooding possible for portions of the Midwest
Monday and likely for Southern Plains and Mid-Mississippi Valley
on Tuesday...

...Rain/freezing rain possible from of the Middle/Upper
Mississippi Valley to the Upper Great Lakes and northern Maine...

...Temperatures will plummet across the Northern Rockies and the
adjacent Northern and Central Plains, averaging 15 to 40 degrees
below seasonal average...

Widespread snow will persist through late Tuesday across portions
of the Wasatchs, Central/Northern Rockies and into the High Plains
as a strong cold front southward through the Rockies and into the
Central U.S. Accumulations will be heavy at times, especially for
the Central Rockies. Arctic air will continue to spill into the
northern states allowing a significant drop in temperatures over
the next couple days. Another cold front dropping south from
Canada will reinforce snow generation across the Northern Plains
and portions of the Upper Great Lakes. A vast area from coastal
Oregon/northern California to upper Michigan have Winter Storm
Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories.

The front`s progression through the central U.S. will be fairly
slow over the next few days which will set the stage for a
potentially long duration wet period for portions of the
Southern/Central Plains and the Mississippi Valley. A steady plume
of warm Gulf moisture will transport northward along this
boundary. Scattered to widespread rain and thunderstorms are
forecast from Texas to the Great Lakes region. An axis of 2 to 4
inches is forecast from eastern Texas to lower Michigan, with
pockets of 5+ inches over northeast Texas to the Ozarks.
Thunderstorms will have little movement and/or track over the same
area; which will greatly increase the likelihood of flooding
conditions. A moderate risk for excessive rainfall is in effect
for Tuesday into Wednesday.

Additionally along the rain/snow line, rain and freezing rain will
develop over parts of the Central Plains into parts of the Upper
Great Lakes Monday morning into Tuesday.

Campbell


Graphics available at
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
$$





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