Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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504
FXUS01 KWBC 140652
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
152 AM EST THU DEC 14 2017

VALID 12Z THU DEC 14 2017 - 12Z SAT DEC 16 2017

...LINGERING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...

...COLD TO LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST INTO THE WEEKEND...

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY WHICH WILL PROLONG ONGOING CONDITIONS
FAVORABLE FOR WILDFIRE GROWTH. STRENGTHENING WINDS TODAY WILL
ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE TO "CRITICAL" CONDITIONS PER THE LATEST
FORECAST FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER, BUT THERE WILL BE SOME
DIURNAL SWINGS EXPECTED IN WIND STRENGTH INTO THE WEEKEND.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
TO PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BEGINNING FRIDAY MORNING,
REPLACING POOR AIR QUALITY CURRENTLY IN PLACE BENEATH A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL BE QUICK MOVING AND WILL
NOT HAVE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH WHICH WILL LIMIT RAIN AND SNOW
TOTALS.

ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST U.S., UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL KEEP THE REGIONS
HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR
MID-DECEMBER. AFTER THE DEPARTURE OF SNOW FROM A STORM SYSTEM NEAR
LONG ISLAND THIS MORNING, LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMMON
DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ARRIVING
ACROSS MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY WILL BRING INCREASED COVERAGE OF SNOW.
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS AWAY FROM THE LAKE SHORE WILL BE LIGHT FROM
THIS NEXT SYSTEM, EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN INDIANA/OHIO INTO
NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA AND UPSTATE NEW YORK. LIGHT TO MODERATE
ACCUMULATIONS RESULTING FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS WILL BE FOUND
ALONG THE MICHIGAN U.P., NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND EAST OF LAKE
ERIE AND ONTARIO THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS, DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION, WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE TODAY. HOWEVER, RAIN IS
FORECAST TO CREEP INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS EARLY ON FRIDAY NORTH OF A
COLD FRONT. FARTHER NORTH, WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH 10 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FROM THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON
FRIDAY. SOME ADJUSTMENT TOWARD COOLER IS ANTICIPATED FOR SATURDAY
UP NORTH WITH THE PASSAGE OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT, BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LOCATIONS FROM
THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER TO EASTERN MONTANA INTO NORTH DAKOTA.

OTTO


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
$$





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