Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS01 KWBC 052029
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
428 PM EDT SUN JUL 05 2015

VALID 00Z MON JUL 06 2015 - 00Z WED JUL 08 2015

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE TONIGHT FOR
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, CAPABLE OF FLASH FLOODING,
POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AHEAD
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...

...SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AS TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...


AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG COLD FRONT PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW, THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE
WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. BY MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY, AS THE FRONT SINKS FARTHER
SOUTH, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, AND INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY THE OHIO VALLEY. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY WHERE FORCING IS STRONGEST. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
CONVECTIVE GRAPHICS SHOW A LARGE MARGINAL AND SLIGHT RISK AREA
FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
THESE STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING
TO FLASH FLOODING AND WPC IS HIGHLIGHTING A SLIGHT TO MODERATE
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO FAR
WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI.

A WEAKENING BOUNDARY LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT BUT SHOULD BECOME
LESS WIDESPREAD IN COVERAGE BY TOMORROW AND TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT WEAKENS. OUT WEST, MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN PLACE
WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS WHERE DIURNAL HEATING IS GREATEST.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, NEAR NORMAL OR EVEN BELOW NORMAL VALUES ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND THE PLAINS. THIS SHOULD COME AS A RELIEF TO
THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT THE WESTERN U.S. HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS TO A WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY, THE SAME CANNOT BE
SAID FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHERE THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS
PARKED OVERHEAD CONTINUING THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE READINGS
FOR AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.


SANTORELLI


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
$$




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