Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS48 KWNS 030858
SWOD48
SPC AC 030857

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0357 AM CDT FRI JUL 03 2015

VALID 061200Z - 111200Z

...DISCUSSION...
THERE IS LITTLE READILY EVIDENT SIGNAL IN THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL OUTPUT THAT SUGGESTS ANYTHING BEYOND RELATIVELY MINOR...OR
MARGINAL...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PORTION OF THE COMING WORK WEEK.  THE NORTHEASTWARD/EASTWARD
ADVECTION OF WARM MIXED LAYER AIR OFF THE ROCKIES/PLATEAU REGION
APPEARS LIKELY TO BE DISRUPTED OR CUT-OFF...AND MID-TROPOSPHERIC
LAPSE RATES EAST OF THE ROCKIES PROBABLY WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY
STEEP.  DAYTIME MAXIMUM SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN SEASONABLY
MODEST IN MOST AREAS AS WELL...MINIMIZING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
DESTABILIZATION.  LATE IN THE WEEK THIS MAY BEGIN TO CHANGE...AS
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT MID/UPPER SUBTROPICAL RIDGING MAY BECOME
MORE PROMINENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS...JUST AHEAD
OF A CLOSED LOW OF SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC ORIGINS ACCELERATING
INLAND ACROSS THE CALIFORNIA COAST.  THIS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THE
EVOLUTION OF AN ENVIRONMENT INCREASINGLY CONDUCIVE TO ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST.  HOWEVER...THE SPREAD AMONG THE VARIOUS
MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLE OUTPUT BECOME TYPICALLY LARGE AT THIS
EXTENDED TIME FRAME.  DUE TO BOTH LOW POTENTIAL AND LOW
PREDICTABILITY...SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES REMAIN BELOW 15
PERCENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

..KERR.. 07/03/2015



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