Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS48 KWNS 040846
SWOD48
SPC AC 040845

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0345 AM CDT FRI SEP 04 2015

VALID 071200Z - 121200Z

...DISCUSSION...
SRN CANADA/NRN PLAINS TROUGH WILL EJECT INTO ONTARIO/GREAT LAKES
REGION DURING THE DAY4-5 TIME FRAME.  ATTENDANT HEIGHT FALLS WILL
SPREAD EAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH WEAK FORCING
EXPECTED TO EXTEND ALONG TRAILING COLD FRONT AS IT SAGS INTO THE MID
MS VALLEY/CNTRL PLAINS.  LATEST ECMWF/GFS SUGGEST STRONGEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL REMAIN DISPLACED FROM MORE BUOYANT AIR MASS ALONG THE
TRAILING BOUNDARY INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS.  WHILE ROBUST CONVECTION
MAY ULTIMATELY DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION...FORECAST SHEAR DOES NOT
SEEM ADEQUATE TO WARRANT 15 PERCENT OR GREATER SEVERE PROBS.
CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY DEVELOP SWD DURING SUBSEQUENT DAYS6-7 AS
FRONT SETTLES INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER/MID MS VALLEY REGION.
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PROVE TOO WEAK FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.

..DARROW.. 09/04/2015



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