Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS48 KWNS 200947
SPC AC 200945

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0345 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2017

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

Models continue to indicate the synoptic upper pattern will remain
dominated by a mean trough over the eastern U.S. with an upstream
ridge in the west. Overall severe threat should be low in this
regime. At least a marginal severe threat could evolve over FL from
late day 4 (Thursday) to day 5 (Friday) when models indicate a
vorticity maximum moving through the base of the southern-stream
trough will induce a weak cyclone over the eastern Gulf, along with
some increase in vertical shear near a warm/stationary front.
However, solutions continue to differ regarding the strength of this
feature, and the thermodynamic environment will likely remain very
marginal which lowers overall predictability and severe potential.

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