Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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515
ACUS48 KWNS 220838
SWOD48
SPC AC 220836

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0336 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VALID 251200Z - 301200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LATITUDE FLOW
WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES TO TRAVERSE THE SRN
U.S. DURING THE DAY4-8 TIME FRAME.  TIMING OF THESE FEATURES WILL
PROVE DIFFICULT AND STRONG ORGANIZED CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP AHEAD
OF EACH SHORT-WAVE TROUGH.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MAINTAIN UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE SERN U.S.
AND THIS FAVORS SHORT WAVES EJECTING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS
VALLEY BEFORE LIFTING INTO THE TN/OH VALLEY REGION.  EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...MONDAY...GREATEST BUOYANCY SHOULD RESIDE ACROSS TX BUT THIS
AREA MAY EXPERIENCE BRIEF SHORT-WAVE RIDGING BEFORE ANOTHER SPEED
MAX APPROACHES THE BIG BEND REGION LATE.  IF SUFFICIENT FLOW CAN
OVERSPREAD THE DRY LINE ACROSS WEST TX THEN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP.  AGAIN...TIMING OF THESE FEATURES WILL PROVE
DIFFICULT AND FOR THIS REASON SEVERE PROBS WILL NOT BE INTRODUCED
FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION.

..DARROW.. 05/22/2015



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