Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS02 KWNS 310627
SWODY2
SPC AC 310626

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR FROM CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN TEXAS THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
SOUTHEASTERN STATES.

...SYNOPSIS...

A SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST SUNDAY WITH A NRN STREAM TROUGH
EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CONTINUE INTO THE
MID MS AND TN VALLEYS. CONCURRENTLY...A SRN STREAM POSITIVE TILT
TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY SEWD THROUGH THE BAJA AREA AND NORTHERN
MEXICO. THE NRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL ADVANCE SEWD THROUGH TX AND THE SERN STATES. BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD THIS FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM A SFC LOW OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC AREA SWWD THROUGH THE NRN GULF.

...CNTRL AND SRN TX THROUGH SRN PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST STATES...


MODIFIED CP AIR WITH UPPER 50S TO 60F LOW-LEVEL DEWPOINTS WILL
ADVECT INLAND THROUGH SERN TX INTO SRN PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST
STATES WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...MODEST 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES AND
AREAS OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS SUGGEST MLCAPE WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW
500 J/KG. A PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND A SERIES OF IMPULSES
EMBEDDED WITHIN BELT OF SWLY WINDS ALOFT WILL PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
SEWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. OTHER MORE SHALLOW CONVECTION AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR FARTHER EAST WITHIN A ZONE
OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE FROM THE NCNTRL GULF INTO THE SERN
STATES.

WINDS ALOFT AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL STRENGTHEN /PARTICULARLY FROM
THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE SERN U.S./ IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
AMPLIFYING NRN STREAM TROUGH. A LOW-END THREAT FOR ISOLATED
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND A STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO MIGHT
EVOLVE...MAINLY OVER SERN TX WHERE SLIGHTLY GREATER INSTABILITY
COULD DEVELOP IF SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING OCCURS IN WAKE OF
ANY EARLY CONVECTION. DUE TO AN EXPECTED MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT...OVERALL THREAT REMAINS TOO CONDITIONAL TO INTRODUCE
SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.

..DIAL.. 01/31/2015




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