Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS02 KWNS 270647
SWODY2
SPC AC 270646

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1246 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VALID 281200Z - 011200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE
SATURDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE WEST...MAINLY FROM PARTS OF THE GREAT
BASIN INTO WESTERN COLORADO...AND ACROSS COASTAL AREAS OF
CALIFORNIA.

...SYNOPSIS...
A BLOCKING RIDGE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFYING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN TIER OF THE U.S. /FROM NM EWD/ WILL RESULT IN
SWD MOVEMENT OF AN AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH CA/NV.
BY 12Z SUNDAY...THIS TROUGH SHOULD EXTEND SWWD FROM THE GREAT BASIN
TO OFF THE CA COAST WITH A MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CA COAST.

...COASTAL CA AND PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN TO WRN CO...
THE ONLY CHANGE FOR THIS OUTLOOK PERIOD IS TO EXTEND THE GENERAL
TSTM AREA NWD TO INCLUDE MORE OF NRN CA WHERE MODELS SUGGEST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS.  COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES ATTENDANT TO THE
MID-UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEEPENING LOW-MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WITH WEAK INSTABILITY.  GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD EXTEND FROM PARTS OF ERN NV INTO
WRN CO WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF A 60-70 KT WSWLY MIDLEVEL JET AND
ALONG AND WEST OF THE CA COAST INVOF THE DEVELOPING MIDLEVEL CLOSED
CIRCULATION.  DESPITE WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND MEAGER
INSTABILITY...COLD 500-MB TEMPERATURES /-26 TO -28 C/ COULD PROVE
FAVORABLE FOR SMALL HAIL WITH TSTMS ACROSS WRN CA.

...SOUTH FL...
ELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS SOUTH FL
ON SATURDAY.  DESPITE THIS MOISTENING SUPPORTING WEAK
INSTABILITY...POOR LAPSE RATES AND WEAK FORCING ALOFT DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED HEIGHT RISES SUGGEST THE TSTM POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN
LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

..PETERS.. 02/27/2015



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