Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS02 KWNS 200522
SWODY2
SPC AC 200521

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1221 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE HILL COUNTRY OF TX
INTO NERN TX...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED STRONG STORMS...A FEW POSSIBLY SEVERE...ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP FROM THE HILL COUNTRY OF CENTRAL TEXAS INTO NORTHEASTERN
TEXAS DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

...TX...

SWRN U.S./NRN MEXICO SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE INTO
THE SRN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE DAY1 PERIOD BEFORE TURNING SE AND
DIGGING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY 22/00Z.  STRONGEST FLOW AT MID
LEVELS SHOULD TRANSLATE ACROSS CNTRL TX TOWARD LA WHICH SHOULD
ENHANCE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR CONVECTION THAT EVOLVES WITHIN THIS
CORRIDOR.  WHILE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL REMAIN FOCUSED PRIMARILY
ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION EARLY BEFORE SHIFTING INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY...STRONG HEATING OVER CNTRL TX IS EXPECTED TO PROVE
INSTRUMENTAL IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG WEAK WIND SHIFT DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

EARLY IN THE PERIOD WEAK WARM ADVECTION SHOULD ASSIST SCT CONVECTION
ACROSS OK INTO THE RED RIVER REGION OF NORTH TX.  THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS AND PROPAGATE/DEVELOP SEWD
DURING THE DAY AS UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO TURN SEWD.
HOWEVER...STRONG HEATING ACROSS WCNTRL TX SHOULD WEAKEN CAP
SUFFICIENTLY FOR TSTM INITIATION ALONG WEAK BOUNDARY BY 20Z.  20Z
NAM FORECAST SOUNDING AT DYS EXHIBITS 2000 J/KG SBCAPE WITH AT LEAST
30KT SFC-6KM SHEAR.  WHILE SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 3KM IS EXPECTED TO BE
QUITE WEAK...HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE
HEAT OF THE DAY WITHIN STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT.  ONE NEGATIVE
IS THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE IN THE WAKE OF AFOREMENTIONED
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH.  FOR THIS REASON IT APPEARS CONVECTION SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY ISOLATED.  SELY STORM MOTION SHOULD ALLOW TSTMS TO
SPREAD TOWARD CNTRL TX BY EARLY EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING.

..DARROW.. 04/20/2014




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