Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS02 KWNS 281706
SWODY2
SPC AC 281705

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1205 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MIDWEST AND OH VALLEY
SWD TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS.

...SYNOPSIS...
A STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRAVEL NEWD ACROSS NRN ONTARIO
WITH BASE OF THE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT SWEEPING EWD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE TAIL END OF THIS FRONT WILL DRIFT SWD
ACROSS OK AND TX PANHANDLE ALSO PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE SRN PLAINS
WITH A WEAK NLY UPPER FLOW REGIME OVER MUCH OF THE SERN STATES WHERE
A MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS.

...MIDWEST TO OH VALLEY...
IN THE WAKE OF SOME EARLY SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS...MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING FRONT/WIND SHIFT
FROM SERN LOWER MI INTO CNTRL IL AND MO BY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
FORCING FOR ASCENT/FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE WEAK...STRONG
HEATING SHOULD YIELD SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE MARGINAL AREA BY
AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST RISK OF MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND OR HAIL
APPEARS TO RESIDE WITH THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY FROM IL/IN SWD
ACROSS KY/TN. A SECONDARY RELATIVE THREAT AREA APPEARS TO BE ALONG
THE GULF COAST FROM SERN LA INTO THE FL PANHANDLE DUE TO HIGHER
DEWPOINTS AND NLY FLOW CONSOLIDATING STORMS INTO THAT AREA BY
AFTERNOON.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
SCATTERED STORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM NEAR THE TRAILING FRONT DURING
THE AFTERNOON WHERE A RIBBON OF MID TO UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO ABOUT 1500 J/KG MUCAPE...FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO
OK. ALTHOUGH LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY...POOR LAPSE RATES
ALOFT AND LACK OF SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY NON-SEVERE STORMS.

..JEWELL.. 07/28/2015



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