Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS02 KWNS 260552
SWODY2
SPC AC 260551

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID-MO VALLEY INTO
PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF SRN VA AND NRN
NC...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT
PLAINS AND THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY AMPLIFY ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...LOOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP-LAYER
LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. A SEPARATE MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON...ALONG THE NERN
PERIPHERY OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE WRN GREAT
BASIN. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SPREAD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WHILE A WEAK NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WWD INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS.

...MID-MO VALLEY INTO PARTS OF THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS...
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BY THE EARLY PORTION
OF THE WED/D2 PERIOD...AND A BOUNDARY /POTENTIALLY MODIFIED BY
CONVECTION/ SHOULD EXTEND FROM SERN SD SWWD INTO NERN CO BY LATE
MORNING. RESERVOIR OF LOW 60S F DEWPOINTS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE
MID-MO VALLEY INTO ERN PORTIONS OF NEB/KS...WITH DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR
/50S F DEWPOINTS/ EXTENDING TO THE W AND N INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS.
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT
GENERAL CONSENSUS IS A MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX WILL MOVE INTO THE CNTRL
HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND ENCOURAGE TSTM DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL NEB. DESPITE WEAK LOW-LEVEL
WINDS...NWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT /20-30 KT/ TO
SUPPORT EVOLUTION OF A COUPLE CLUSTERS PROPAGATING GENERALLY SEWD
INTO ERN NEB AND NRN KS DURING THE EVENING. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY
RELATED TO THE TIMING OF IMPULSES...AND SOMEWHAT MARGINAL
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE...CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW FOR SLIGHT RISK
DELINEATION ATTM.

ADDITIONAL TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN AN UPSLOPE REGIME ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE INTO THE PARTS OF SERN MT. A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND/OR SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION ACROSS THE
CNTRL/NRN HIGH PLAINS.

...SRN VA AND NRN NC...
A BAND OF MODERATE WLYS ALOFT /20-25 KT AT 500 MB/ WILL PERSIST
ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF AN ERN CANADA TROUGH ACROSS THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. RICH MOISTURE WILL BE IN
PLACE TO THE S OF A STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS SRN VA...AND STRONG
DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD YIELD MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 2000
J/KG...DESPITE RELATIVELY WARM MID-TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE
PROFILES. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUSTAIN A FEW
MULTICELL CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF DMGG WIND GUSTS FROM THE HIGHER
TERRAIN EWD TO THE COAST.

..ROGERS.. 07/26/2016

$$


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