Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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973
ACUS03 KWNS 300717
SWODY3
SPC AC 300716

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0216 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SOUTH TX...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER NC...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GULF STATES INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN US.  WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THESE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN
SUB SEVERE...A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AND
OVER NORTH CAROLINA.

...DISCUSSION...

LARGE-SCALE PATTERN FAVORS A GRADUAL SWD AND EWD SHUNT TO HIGHER
PW/INSTABILITY ACROSS THE ERN CONUS MONDAY.  BROAD SWLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE DAY3 PERIOD BUT
SUBSTANTIAL SFC RIDGING ACROSS THE PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO DRIVE A
COLD FRONT THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TX EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  A FEW STRONG
STORMS MAY FORM ALONG COOL SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY WHERE FRONTAL
ASCENT WILL BE REQUIRED FOR INITIATION.  LARGE HAIL IS THE PRIMARY
THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY GIVEN THE EXPECTED STEEP LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT.

ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ALONG WEAKLY
CONVERGENT FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY...NEWD INTO
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION.  STRONG BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING ACROSS
THE SERN U.S. SHOULD AID BUOYANCY ALONG SRN FRINGES OF EJECTING
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH.  WHILE CONVERGENCE SHOULD PROVE MINIMAL ACROSS
NC...SFC PARCELS SHOULD REACH THEIR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AND
ISOLATED ROBUST STORMS ARE EXPECTED.

..DARROW.. 04/30/2016

$$



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