Tropical Cyclone Discussion
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000
WTNT41 KNHC 011437
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015
1100 AM AST TUE SEP 01 2015

Fred continues to quickly weaken this morning as the associated
deep convection near the center has decreased in coverage and
become less organized.  The center has also become exposed to the
south of the remaining shower and thunderstorm activity.  The
initial intensity is reduced to 45 kt, which is based on an 1100 UTC
ASCAT pass that showed maximum winds of around 40 kt.  Additional
weakening is predicted during the next few days while Fred moves
into a more hostile environment of increasing southwesterly shear,
mid-level dry air, and marginal sea surface temperatures.  The
tropical cyclone is expected to weaken to a tropical depression in
36 to 48 hours, and become a remnant low in 2 to 3 days, but this
could occur sooner.

Fred is moving west-northwestward or 300 degrees at 9 kt.  The
tropical cyclone is expected to be steered west-northwestward to
the south of a deep-layer ridge over the eastern Atlantic during
the next couple of days.  The western portion of the ridge is
forecast to weaken after 72 hours when a large mid- to
upper-level trough begins to deepen over the central Atlantic.
This should cause the remnant low to turn northwestward late in the
forecast period.  The models that keep Fred stronger show the
northwestward turn occurring much sooner than the NHC forecast.
The NHC track closely follows the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET models that
all take a weaker Fred more westward before turning it northwestward
late in the forecast period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/1500Z 18.3N  27.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  02/0000Z 19.0N  28.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  02/1200Z 19.8N  30.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  03/0000Z 20.5N  31.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  03/1200Z 21.1N  33.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  04/1200Z 22.8N  36.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  05/1200Z 24.4N  38.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  06/1200Z 26.5N  40.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown



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