Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 290831
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
331 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 331 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014

WARMER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE GREAT LAKES FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND...BUT THIS WILL ALSO BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN...DRIZZLE...
AND FOG BEFORE ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: THE MIXED PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING
MAY CONTAIN FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE.

FORECAST CHALLENGES: THE FREEZING DRIZZLE/FREEZING RAIN.

OVERVIEW...A BANDS OF MIXED RAIN/SNOW HAS BEEN MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION SOUTH OF US-10 OVERNIGHT ALIGNED ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND THE
500 MB COUPLED JET THAT IS SLIDING EAST WITH THE MOISTURE. THIS WILL
BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE PACKAGE.

TODAY...THE INITIAL SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT (850 MB T>0C) LOOKS TO
BE HERE IN A FEW HOURS FOR THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WITH THE MAIN
CONCERN ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-72. THE MODELS SHOW BETTER MOISTURE
TODAY IN THE COLUMN, BUT DO BEGIN TO DRY OUT ABOVE 850 MB, AS THE
SFC TROUGH AND THE BEST 850 MB WARM AIR BEGINS TO MAKE A CONCERTED
PUSH. THIS LEAVES THE SW COUNTIES UNDER SOUNDINGS THAT WOULD
INDICATE DRIZZLE. INITIALLY, WITH THE SFC WARM AIR LAGGING BEHIND
THE 850 MB WARM AIR, IT LOOKS LIKE PATCHY FREEZING IS EXPECTED AT
AROUND BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z, THEN AS THE SFC WARM AIR MAKES ITS WAY
INTO THE FORECAST AREA, WILL TRANSITION THE PRECIPITATION FROM
FREEZING TO LIQUID. LOOKS LIKE THAT THE INTERIOR HIGHLANDS WILL BE
THE LAST OF THE AREA THAT BEGINS TO WARM ENOUGH TO STOP THE FREEZING
AND THAT LOOKS TO BE AROUND 17Z OR SO. ONCE PAST 18Z, THE WARM AIR
AND THE FORCING CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH. THIS WILL SLOWLY CHANGE OVER
THE SNOW TO RAIN AS THE WARMER SFC AIR MOVES INTO E UPPER BEFORE THE
850 WARM AIR.

TONIGHT...MID LEVEL AND LOW LEVEL DRY SLOTS MOVE OVER THE REGION,
STOPPING THE RAIN. HOWEVER, MODELS INDICATE THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE PLENTIFUL FORCING THE DEWPOINTS THAT ARE ABOVE FREEZING
OVER A HEALTHY SNOW PACK, SO AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL RESULT AND
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT UNTIL THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. BOTH OF THE MODELS HAVE COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO E
UPPER BY 12Z. HOWEVER, BOTH HAVE LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION AS THE
FRONT PRESSES IN. SO WILL GO WITH SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN E UPPER
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES IN, AND LEAVE N LOWER DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL REACH OUR FAR WRN
CWA BY 12Z SUNDAY AND WILL THEN QUICKLY SWING THRU OUR AREA DURING
THE MORNING...REACHING SAGINAW BAY BY 18Z SUNDAY. RATHER STRONG AND
RAPID CAA WILL BEGIN IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. 12Z SUNDAY 850 MB
TEMPS RANGING FROM +3 C AT WHITEFISH POINT TO NEAR +12 C NEAR
SAGINAW BAY WILL PLUMMET TO -15 C AT WHITEFISH POINT RANGING TO -6 C
NEAR SAGINAW BAY BY 00Z MONDAY. NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT LATEST NAM IS ELUDING TO THE SMALL CHANCE OF
SOME LIGHT PRECIP ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN CHIPPEWA COUNTY WHERE SOME
MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL EXIST DURING THE MORNING. APPEARS A NARROW
BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE POST-FRONTAL...RESULTING IN
INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIP SUNDAY AFTERNOON ONCE THE FRONT IS
THRU. BEHIND THAT NARROW CORRIDOR OF POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE...DRIER
AIR QUICKLY ARRIVES AHEAD OF AN AREA OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE...WITH
SURFACE RIDGING PUSHING INTO NRN MICHIGAN AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT.
THUS...ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL BE ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY
DRIVEN BY OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AS FAR AS
PRECIP TYPE AND AMOUNT SPECIFICS...EXPECT A CHANCE OF MIXED RAIN AND
SNOW ACROSS ERN UPR AND THE STRAITS WILL STEADILY SPREAD SE INTO THE
REST OF NRN LWR MICHIGAN BY AFTERNOON...WITH THE CHANCE OF PRECIP
CHANGING TO ALL SNOW FOR THE NW HALF OF OUR CWA BY AFTERNOON.
AGAIN...PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT AND ANY NEW SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE
LIMITED TO UNDER AN INCH FOR ERN UPR MICHIGAN. NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...
BUT NEW SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED BY THE ARRIVAL OF DRY AIR WITH
BUILDING SURFACE RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE AOB 2 INCHES FOR THE TYPICAL SNOWBELT REGIONS FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN FOR MONDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
AROUND WHITEFISH POINT WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL
RESIDE. MONDAY NIGHT WILL SERVE AS A TRANSITION...AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AGAIN...CUTTING OFF ANY REMAINING LAKE EFFECT.
STRONG CAA FROM NW TO SE ON SUNDAY WILL DROP TEMPS FROM THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S TO OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO
LOWER 20S. HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO THE TEENS.

TUESDAY THRU FRIDAY...OVERALL ZONAL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THRU NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...LIMITED MOISTURE
WITH THE PASSAGE OF EACH NRN STREAM SYSTEM COMBINED WITH ONLY
FLEETING PERIODS OF OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT FOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW PRODUCTION BEHIND EACH SYSTEM WILL KEEP PERIODIC SNOW CHANCES
AND ACCUMULATIONS RELATIVELY SMALL. HIGH TEMPS WILL AGAIN ONLY WARM
INTO THE 20S ON TUESDAY...WITH THE REST OF THE WEEK SEEING HIGH
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 30S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S
ALL WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

SCT MIXED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. MVFR TO IFR CIGS
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD. LLWS DEVELOPING.

WARM AIR IS MOVING INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. THE MORE WIDESPREAD -SN IS OVER...BUT SOME
MIXED SHOWERS (SN/PL/FZRA/RA) WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. PRECIP COVERAGE WILL NOT BE
IMPRESSIVE...ONLY MENTIONING VCSH FOR NOW. STRATUS IS FORMING
ALREADY IN THE TVC/MBL AREA...THIS WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW-END MVFR CIGS EXPECTED.

SE TO S SURFACE WINDS...VEERING SW SAT EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE ENOUGH OFF THE DECK SATURDAY TO MENTION LLWS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 331 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014

EXPANDED THE SMALL CRAFT FOR LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING AS
THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BACK VEER TO THE SW AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. ONCE VEERED, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS, AND THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS
TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SMALL
CRAFT WINDS ON SUNDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THEN WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NW AND INCREASE TO SMALL
CRAFT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ341-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MLR
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...MLR
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JSL


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