Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 051125
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
625 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

AT 3 AM...A 1016 MB HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. THIS HIGH WAS PRODUCING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES /UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S/ WERE FOUND IN CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. EXCEPT FOR AREAS LOCATED ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS
EARLY THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...THERE MAY BE EVEN SOME PATCHY
FROST IN DODGE...MOWER...AND OLMSTED COUNTIES.

THE MESO MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS
IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING EAST THROUGH THE REGION.
EVEN THOUGH THIS HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL...THE SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING THAT MOST OF THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT GOES INTO
DEVELOPING CLOUDS AND THERE IS LITTLE LEFT FOR DEVELOPING ANY
RAIN. EVEN THOUGH THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE AREA WILL
REMAIN DRY TODAY...OPTED TO ADD ISOLATED SHOWERS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
VERY SMALL POSSIBILITY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

DESPITE SOME SMOKE FROM THE CANADIAN FOREST FIRES ON FRIDAY...WE
STILL WILL MIX DEEP ENOUGH THAT TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO
THE LOWER AND MID 80S. THIS MIXING WILL ALSO BRING DRIER AIR FROM
ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. LIKE YESTERDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE DEW
POINTS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 40S. SINCE THIS IS SOMETHING THAT
THE MODELS TYPICALLY DO NOT DO THAT WELL AT...LOWERED THE DEW
POINTS BY 3 TO 5F TO GET INTO THE MID 40S. THIS WOULD LOWER THE
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES INTO THE MID 20S WHICH COMBINED
WITH GUSTY WINDS COULD CAUSE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...THE 05.00Z MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THAT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.
WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...THE SURFACE AND MOST UNSTABLE
CAPES WILL QUICKLY FALL FROM 1-2K IN THE EARLY EVENING TO AROUND
500 J/KG BY MIDNIGHT. WITH BOTH THE 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR
REMAINING LESS THAN 20 KNOTS...WE ARE STILL NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
SEVERE WEATHER WITH ANY STORMS THAT HAPPEN TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A COUPLE OF WEAKENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WHILE SURFACE CAPES ARE AROUND
1000 J/KG ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR
REMAIN LESS THAN 25 KNOTS...SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KRST/KLSE THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT
WITH SOME INCREASING MID CLOUDS BETWEEN 8000 AND 12000 FT AGL AS A
WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE COULD BE
SOME SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT RAIN WITH THESE CLOUDS SO ADDED A TEMPO
GROUP FOR SOME -RA AT KSRT FROM 05.14 TO 05.18Z. SHOULD SEE A
RETURN TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER TODAY...VARIABLE THIS
MORNING AND THEN INCREASING A BIT FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

THE TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER AND MID 80S ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS...HUMIDITIES WILL BE FALLING INTO THE
MID 20S AND WEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTING INTO THE 20 TO 30 MPH
RANGE. THESE CONDITIONS MAY CAUSE SOME ISSUES FOR THOSE PLANNING
ON DOING ANY OUTDOOR BURNING ON THAT DAY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ017-029-033-
     034-041>044-053-055.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...ROGERS
FIRE WEATHER...BOYNE


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