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000
FXUS63 KARX 271932
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
230 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2016

Closed 500 mb low/trough sinking southward across the northern Great
Lakes early this afternoon...with models in lock-step taking it
south/southeast to across the oh river valley by 00z tonight. Area
of showers firing in response to the closed/stacked low pressure
system, with a strong bit of upper level energy having a large hand
in its production. The area of showers/forcing has reached the I-94
corridor later this afternoon, sinking south of I-90 by late
afternoon/early evening. The bulk of the rain looks to drop south
between 06-08z. The showers will be widespread east of the
Mississippi river, more scattered west of there. Amounts will be on
the light side, mostly 1/10 of an inch or less.

A few showers remain possible Wed, mostly east of the Mississippi
river. Despite the bulk of the forcing mechanisms having vacated the
local area, the low level lapse remain favorable, there hints in the
GFS/NAM of weak (~50 J/kg) of instability, and the proximity of the
low (still close by) also support the small chances.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2016

The main concern for the beginning of this period is if the closed
low will retrograde and affect the forecast area. The ECMWF has
retrograded the system consistently over several runs, while the GFS
only recently came into agreement with this pattern. Assuming this
happens, the next issue is how far west the associated precipitation
will make it. The 27.00Z ECMWF has showers throughout the forecast
area on Saturday, while the 27.06Z GFS keeps everything just to the
east. However, the 27.12Z GFS came into a bit more agreement with
the ECMWF, with rain in the area east of the Mississippi River. The
focus then shifts to a trough and moving into the area early next
week bringing another chance of showers and storms, though some
model timing differences still exist with this system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2016

A trough will move produce showers across the area this afternoon
and evening. Besides the showers, it will cause the ceilings to
become MVFR this evening and IFR tonight. These IFR ceilings will
then continue into Wednesday morning. Northwest winds will gust into
the 20 to 25 knot range this afternoon...and then rapidly diminish
this evening with the loss of diurnal heating.

&&


.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rieck
LONG TERM....Aegerter
AVIATION...Boyne