000
FXUS63 KDLH 041745
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1145 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 623 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

FLURRIES HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE IRON RANGE AND HAVE
ADDED A MENTION FOR EARLY THIS MORNING. SHORT TERM HIRES MODELS
ARE POINTING TO SOME FLURRIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER NW WI. HAVE
ADDED THE MENTION AS A RESULT. REST OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

A SERIES OF SFC TROFS WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE FIRST
TROF WAS OVER THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AT 08Z. THE SECOND WAS OVER
NW ONTARIO INTO NORTHERN MANITOBA. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
WAS DROPPING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND MOVING THROUGH ND AND
NW MN AT 08Z. AS A RESULT OF THESE FEATURES...THERE WAS A MIX OF
CLOUDS AND CLEAR SPOTS OVER THE AREA....COMBINED WITH A BIT OF WIND
WAS KEEPING THE TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO QUICKLY. AS THE UPPER
WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY...IT WILL PUSH
THE SFC TROFS THROUGH THE REGION WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SOLAR
TODAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW FLURRIES BRIEFLY THIS MORNING WHEN THE
BEST FORCING MOVES THROUGH. BEHIND THIS UPPER TROF...COLD AIR SURGES
IN ONCE AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS DIFFER IN THE LOW LEVEL WIND DIRECTION OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR. GFS/GEM ARE MORE NWLY WHILE THE ECMWF/NAM FAVOR A
WESTERLY DIRECTION. WITH A SFC TROF EXPECTED TO SET UP OVER WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR...WILL FAVOR THE ECMWF/NAM APPROACH AND HAVE NO POPS
FOR TODAY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE.

THERE IS A BRIEF WINDOW FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER IRON
COUNTY FROM 00Z TO 03Z THURSDAY. THIS IS WHEN THERE IS JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND A FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION FOR SOME LOW POPS. AFTER
03Z...THE DRIER AIR FROM THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SHUTS DOWN ANY
LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL. SFC RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD BY 12Z THURSDAY.
WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND A LIGHT WIND...MAY ONLY SEE A COUPLE
HOURS OF WIND CHILL CRITERIA ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. NO
HEADLINES EXPECTED.

ON THURSDAY...THE HIGH DRIFTS TO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS LEAVING THE
FORECAST AREA IN A WAA PATTERN. EVEN THOUGH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
REACHES WESTERN MN BY 00Z FRIDAY...DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE SO NO
PCPN EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE NORTHLAND WILL BE MAINLY NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA
EARLY IN THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO FLATTEN AND SHIFT EAST SOME LATE
IN THE PERIOD. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND
BRING A FEW CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIP. TEMPERATURES OVERALL
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND FOR NOW WE KEPT THE FORECAST MOSTLY DRY.
HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE SOME FLURRIES THAT ACCOMPANY THESE FEATURES
AND WE ADDED TO PARTS OF THE AREA.

ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND WE INCREASED POPS SOME AS
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SOME SNOW POSSIBLE. THE NAM IS DRIER
THAN THE ECMWF/NAM...SO WE DID NOT GO TOO HIGH ON POPS YET.

YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...BUT AGAIN ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE
QUITE LIGHT.

IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY MONDAY/TUESDAY AS A FEW SHORTWAVES RIDE
ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. SOME OF THESE MAY
BRUSH FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 30 TO 35 ON FRIDAY...COOL A BIT
SATURDAY BEFORE WARMING BACK INTO THE THIRTIES SUNDAY. SOME LOWER
FORTIES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SPOTS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

MVFR/VFR CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED TODAY AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. CEILINGS HAVE BEEN RIGHT ON THE EDGE BETWEEN VFR
AND MVFR...AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE. WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25KTS POSSIBLE. AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING WINDS WILL DECREASE TO LIGHT/NEAR
CALM AND SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   6 -12  13   5 /  10   0   0  10
INL   4 -17  13   7 /  10  10   0  10
BRD   6 -15  14   6 /  10   0   0  10
HYR   9 -15  14   2 /  10   0   0  10
ASX   9  -9  16   7 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ010>012-018>021-
     025-026-033>038.

WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...JJM