Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 310916
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
416 AM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Sun Jul 31 2016

A return flow will bring a gradual warm up and increasing
instability through Monday. Have introduced small pops to amount
for isolated showers possible this afternoon along the lake breeze
and into the Minnesota arrowhead. However, most locations can
expect to stay dry today due to lack of trigger and focus for
convection. Although there is sufficient instability, the lack of
shear and forcing will limit the thunder potential.

Temperatures will run a few degrees above yesterday`s highs with
most locations warming into the low 80s. A Lake breeze will keep
locations adjacent to lake superior in the 70s.

A mid level trough associated with a Canadian cut off low will
push into the Dakotas overnight. A surface reflection low in SD,
with inverted trough extending into canada, becomes focus for
thunderstorms Monday. have pulled back pops monday morning with
main threat for storms arriving for areas in North Central
Minnesota Monday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Sun Jul 31 2016

Two rounds of showers and storms this week followed by a fairly dry
weekend. Temperatures above average early to mid week, then falling
to near normal by the weekend. First chance for storms will be
Monday night into early Tuesday, then another round Wednesday night
into early Thursday. In both cases heavy rain and damaging winds
will be possible.

On the synoptic scale the work week begins with a stacked low across
northern Saskatchewan/Manitoba with a weaker low centered across the
central plains. Cold front associated with these areas of low
pressure will approach from the west Tuesday with showers and storms
- some strong - expected late Monday into early Tuesday. The precise
progression of the precipitation will depend on a number of factors,
and at this point while there is a conditional risk for severe
storms, confidence is lower than average because both instability
and deep-layer shear will not be particularly favorable for
widespread severe storms. Heavy rain may lead to flash flooding;
PWATs around 1.5 to 1.7 inches are not all that extreme but training
storms could lead to localized flooding issues.

Tuesday into Wednesday an area of high pressure builds in with
warmer temperatures. A warm airmass across the plains and southwest
will be advected into the upper midwest through the week, with 850mb
temps topping out around the low 20s C on Wednesday resulting in
highs in the mid to upper 80s. Late Wednesday another chance for
storms, this time with a bit more confidence in the risk for severe
storms due to a wind profile much more conducive to organized
storms. This increased risk is due to a compact mid-level
trough/upper low that traverse southern Canada mid-week resulting
in stronger winds aloft and decent large-scale lift ahead of the
low. Best chance for storms will be Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. With warm and somewhat moist southerly flow ahead of this
next round of storms the environment will be primed for stronger
storms with 1000-1500 j/kg MUCAPE - not extreme but certainly
enough to sustain storms that move into the area. Deep layer shear
will be on the order of 45-55 knots due to strong mid and upper
level winds, with much of the shear oriented along the same
direction. This would be favorable for damaging winds with the
strongest storms with bowing segments possibly resulting in
significant wind gusts. Heavy rain threat not at high because of
the overall faster storm motions and less moisture through the
column.

Thursday afternoon through Saturday will be dry as a mid-level
longwave ridge builds across the Canadian Prairie and a resultant
high pressure builds in across the upper Midwest. Northwest flow
aloft will lead to near normal temperatures with highs in the mid to
upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1253 AM CDT Sun Jul 31 2016

High pressure will nudge into Northland from the east overnight.
This has brought light winds and clear skies, which in combination
with low level moisture has resulted in radiation fog development.
Expect fog to develop at all terminals except for KHYR and KINL.
Will see visibility reductions range from MVFR to LIFR, as seen in
the latest MOS guidance and current observations. After 12Z
expecting a return to VFR conditions at all terminals. May see
some showers and storms develop at KINL/KBRD during the
afternoon/evening as a shortwave moves through.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  80  59  79  64 /  10  10  10  60
INL  85  63  83  64 /  20  20  50  70
BRD  81  64  82  67 /  10  20  30  60
HYR  81  59  83  66 /  10  10  10  60
ASX  81  59  80  65 /  10   0  10  70

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Graning
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...WL



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