Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 240837

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
337 AM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017

Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Friday
Issued at 335 AM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017

A short-wave trof was moving through the western Great Lakes
region, and producing showers over central WI and cloud cover
over the rest of the forecast area. As the upper trof departs
early this morning, clearing will progress from north to south.
The clearing may occur early enough for temperatures to drop into
the middle 30s in far north central WI, so patchy frost may still
occur there.

Canadian high pressure will settle into the region today, and
bring sunny skies. High temperatures will be below normal, with
readings only in the middle 60s to lower 70s. Clear skies and
light winds will prevail tonight, which should allow temperatures
to plummet into the 30s and 40s. The typical cold spots in north
central and far northeast WI should drop into the middle 30s,
setting the stage for frost development. Will mention the threat
of frost in the Hazardous Weather Outlook.

On Friday, the surface high will start to slide east, allowing
light south winds to develop over GRB CWA. The best moisture
return will occur in MN and far western WI, and that is where
precipitation development should be confined. High temperatures
are expected to rise into the upper 60s and lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...Friday Night Through Wednesday
Issued at 335 AM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017

West-northwest flow at 500mb will continue to bring below normal
temperatures to the area into the weekend. 500mb upper trough is
expected to move into the western Great Lakes region later this
weekend, possibly closing off on Sunday and Monday. This feature
will be the main weather maker for precipitation into early next

Still a great deal of uncertainty in the arrival of precipitation
Friday evening. Models are pretty much split with rain making it
into central and portions of north-central Wisconsin. Will
continue small chances of rain across the west for now, then
increase rain chances for everyone after midnight. For Saturday,
the slow retreat of the Canadian high off to the east may allow
for much of Saturday to be dry across east-central Wisconsin with
increasing chances of rain west and north of the Fox Valley. The
best chances of rain will be on Sunday into Sunday night as the
potential closing off 500mb low drops into the area. A few
thunderstorms are possible on Monday across central Wisconsin due
to diurnal heating. Additional chances for diurnally driven
showers are possible again across eastern Wisconsin on Tuesday.
Only made minor adjustments to max/min grids to account for our
typical warm spots during the day and cold spots across the north
at night.


.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1046 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

An upper level disturbance will bring a chance of light showers
to mainly central WI late tonight, along with BKN to OVC mid-level
clouds to the rest of the region. However, conditions should
remain VFR with this system. Skies will clear early Thursday
morning across most of the area and remain mostly sunny and VFR
through the afternoon with light winds.



SHORT TERM.....Kieckbusch
LONG TERM......Eckberg
AVIATION.......Kurimski is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.