Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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364
FXUS63 KGRR 081206
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
706 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR TODAY...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING
ROADS WILL ONLY BE WET.  THE SNOW WILL PICK UP A BIT TONIGHT WITH
MOST AREAS SEEING AN INCH OR LESS...HOWEVER LAKESHORE AREAS COULD
SEE UP TO TWO INCHES.  COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AND THIS WILL SPARK MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. LAKESHORE
AREAS COULD SEE MORE THAN SIX INCHES OF SNOW...WHILE INLAND AREAS
ALSO SEE SNOW...BUT JUST A COUPLE INCHES.  HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 20 AS THE COLD AIR MOVES OVERHEAD.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S INTO THE
WEEKEND.  ON AND OFF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

SHARPLY COLDER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION BY LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.  SNOW UNTIL THEN WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...BUT IT SHOULD
INTENSIFY AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN.

STACKED UPPER LOW WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY
THIS MORNING.  THIS WILL KEEP ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH WED.  NOT SEEING ANY SIGNIFICANT LIFTING WITH THIS RATHER
FILLED LOW...SO THE PCPN TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WILL BE LIGHT.
SOUNDINGS FAVOR ALL SNOW...BUT WITH TEMPS A BIT ABOVE FREEZING
ROADS WILL JUST BE WET TODAY. ACCUMS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TONIGHT
BUT WITH A SLIGHT BOOST FROM THE LAKE...SOME LAKESHORE AREAS
COULD SEE UP TO TWO INCHES.

THE ARCTIC AIR BEGINS TO POUR IN LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
WHEN THE SNOW SHOULD RAMP UP.  THIS IS A BIT LATER THAN PREVIOUS
THINKING.  AND SINCE THE MODELS HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET OF THE
ARCTIC AIR...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES AT THIS POINT...UNTIL
WE ARE MORE CERTAIN OF IT/S TIMING. HOWEVER AT THIS POINT DELTA
T/S SHOULD RISE LATE TUESDAY AND THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOWFALL
SHOULD INCREASE. THE MEAN FLOW REMAINS 335-345 AND ALONG WITH DEEP
MOISTURE EXPECT WE WILL SEE DOMINATE BANDS THAT WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN
ALLEGAN AND VAN BUREN COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE SABLE POINTS.

THE MOISTURE BEGINS TO DIMINISH INTO LATE WED WHEN THE SNOWS SHOULD
LET UP. CERTAINLY APPEARS SIX INCHES OR MORE WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS. HIGHS BY WED SHOULD ONLY BE AROUND
20 AS WE WILL BE WITHIN THE ARCTIC AIR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

WINTER WILL BE IN FULL EFFECT IN THE LONG TERM. THE IMPACT OF WINTER
WILL BE MORE IN TERMS OF THE COLD THOUGH AS OPPOSED TO SNOW. BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SIMILAR FEATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM...BUT
SIDED WITH THE ECMWF FOR DETAILS.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE ONGOING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY IN THE NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE SNOW BELTS.
THIS FLOW WILL KEEP THE LAKE SNOWS MAINLY IN THE LAKE SHORE
COUNTIES...WITH MASON...OCEANA...ALLEGAN AND VAN BUREN COUNTIES
SEEING THE BETTER BANDING. THE LAKE EFFECT WILL TEND TO DIMINISH
SOME ON THURSDAY AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE ERODES.

AN ARCTIC FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON POURING IN BEHIND IT. THE
FLOW IS NORTHERLY...BUT WE COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES.

THE AIR THAT SURGES IN OVER THE WEEKEND IS COLDER IN THE ECMWF AND
REACHES THE -26C TO -30C RANGE. THIS WOULD LEAD TO SINGLE DIGIT
HIGHS AND BELOW ZERO LOWS. WE WILL NEED TO TREND COLDER IF THE
MODELS CONTINUE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THIS COLD SURGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 706 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

A COLD FRONT IS SITUATED ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN AT 12Z. THE
FRONT WILL SURGE EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY. THE
FRONT WILL USHER IN SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE MVFR
CEILINGS SHOULD PUSH INTO ALL OF THE TAF SITES BY 18Z. VISIBILITIES
WITH SNOW SHOWERS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE EITHER VFR (FLURRIES)
OR MVFR AT WORST.

TONIGHT...THE SNOW WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY A BIT WITH MVFR
VISIBILITIES BECOMING MORE COMMON AND CEILINGS TRENDING INTO THE
IFR CATEGORY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

WILL PUT UP A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STARTING TONIGHT.  WE MAY REACH
BORDERLINE GALES TOWARD MID DAY TUESDAY AND WILL BE MONITORING THIS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1216 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE RIVER AT MAPLE RAPIDS IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW BANKFULL BY
LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. COLD TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL
CAUSE ICE TO REDEVELOP... SO WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR RIVER
LEVEL FLUCTUATIONS IF FREEZE UP ICE JAMS OCCUR. WITH MANY RIVERS
CURRENTLY RUNNING HIGHER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS... A FEW RIVERS
COULD RISE OUT OF THEIR BANKS AGAIN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...JK



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