Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 300647
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
247 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THIS MORNING AND AREAS OF
FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY NOON. FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FORECAST ISSUES IN THE NEAR TERM INCLUDE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS
ENDING TODAY AND CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY.

WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
ZONES THIS MORNING. EXPECT SHOWERS TO END BY AFTERNOON AND LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG TO GRADUALLY DECREASE BY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST AND HEIGHTS RISE.

EVEN AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN...THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT NORTH ON
TUESDAY AS FLOW GOES MORE SOUTHERLY.

WE WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS AND THIS MAY HAVE TO BE EXPANDED WITH TIME AS
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT
OF QPF SUGGESTING AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ON TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
LONG RANGE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE LONG RANGE FORECAST PERIOD. MAX TEMPS
WILL REACH THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES DAILY WITH MIN TEMPS
MAINLY IN THE 60S. IT WILL BE RATHER HUMID THROUGH THE LONG TERM
FCST PERIOD AS WELL WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S.

WE CANNOT RULE OUT POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
DAILY MID TO LATE WEEK MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED. HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT
MOST DAYS WILL LACK A FORCING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION TO
OCCUR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A POTENTIAL LAKE BREEZE AND RESULTING
LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE DAILY. HOWEVER THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE LONG
RANGE FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD BE VERY WARM TO HOT AND DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A MIX OF MAINLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO
PRIMARILY IFR WITH SOME LIFR DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS
TODAY DUE TO LOW CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
LINGER FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS MAINLY SE OF KGRR.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR MID TO LATE SUNDAY
MORNING AS FOG DISSIPATES AND CIGS BEGIN TO IMPROVE. CONDITIONS
SHOULD THEN CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE THOUGH THIS MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MOST LOCATIONS SAW LESS THAN A HALF INCH OF RAIN LAST NIGHT INTO
TODAY. THIS SHOULD NOT CAUSE HYDRO CONCERNS.  MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS LARGELY DRY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...63/JK MARINE...JK
MARINE...OSTUNO


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