Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 281445 AAA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
945 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.UPDATE...

It looks like it should be mainly dry through the remainder of the
morning and into the afternoon. A wave is then expected to bring a
line of showers and storms into the western forecast area late
afternoon or early evening. This line will likely weaken by the
time it reaches the east late in the evening. Will likely be
bumping pops up (especially in the west) as mesoscale models come
into better agreement with timing. SPC is maintaining a Marginal
Risk for severe storms across much of the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

MVFR ceilings should improve to VFR by afternoon most places, with
mainly VFR expected into tonight (other than lower conditions
possible in storms). A line of showers and storms will likely
arrive in the western forecast area by late afternoon or early
evening...progressing eastward across southern Wisconsin during
the evening hours. Could see a strong/severe storm or two.

A chance for showers and storms will linger on Sunday as the upper
trough moves through. Models suggesting a return of some lower
ceilings for a while as the trough slides through.

&&

.MARINE...

The dense fog advisory continues north of North Point Lighthouse
until 1 pm as humid air flows over the relatively cool waters of
Lake MI. Areas of fog may continue through the afternoon and into
the evening, which could also be dense.  Otherwise, winds and waves
should remain below small craft advisory levels through the holiday
weekend.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 457 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...Forecast confidence Confidence.

The first lobe of vorticity advection brought the west to east
band of rain that moved north through the cwa earlier. Isolated to
scattered showers are continuing but should become mostly isolated
by later this morning. As the upper low over NE moves toward the
Upper MS River Valley another round of pva and showers and
scattered tstorms is expected over at least south central WI late
this afternoon into the evening. The precipitation may remain only
scattered in the east as most of the pva remains to the west.
Depending on the cloud cover and degree of mixing the MLCAPE will
rise to 500 j/kg with bulk shear of 25-30 kts. A Marginal Risk for
SVR tstorms has been outlooked over much of S WI.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

Models are showing a trough moving east northeast through the
region Sunday morning, with gusty west winds lingering in the
afternoon in its wake. The associated 500 mb shortwave trough also
slides east northeast through the region in the morning, exiting
during the afternoon. There are some hints of a left front
quadrant of a jet streak developing over the area Sunday as well.

It appears that dew points will slowly fall with the trough
passage and mixing. Area forecast soundings still show tall skinny
CAPEs of up to 500 J/kg on the NAM, lower on the GFS.

Will continue to mention thunder in forecast, despite the lower
GFS CAPE values. Any convection would be scattered in nature.
Highs should rise into the upper 70s to around 80 across most of
the area, with gusty westerly winds.

Models then hint at a period of dry weather for Sunday night into
early Memorial Day, as a weak high moves into the region. Any
forcing for upward vertical motion remains weak at best. Kept dry
forecast going for Sunday night. Lower dew points should prevent
fog formation.

Models then show a warm front developing to the southwest of the
area to the southwest of the area on Memorial Day, then shifts it
northeast into the area Monday night. Several weak 500 mb
vorticity maxima shift northeast through the area, with the main
vorticity maximum moving into the region Monday night. Main low
level jet remains to the west of the area during this time.

Area forecast soundings show some mean layer CAPE Memorial Day,
with elevated CAPE Monday night. Again, higher on the NAM than the
GFS for the most part. Continued pops for this period in the
forecast. Warm temperatures will continue, with some lower 60s dew
points working into the southwest counties.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

ECMWF and GFS continue to show moisture gradually streaming into
the area Tuesday into Wednesday. Both models show a cold front
moving east through the region Wednesday and Wednesday night, with
a trailing 500 mb shortwave trough. GFS forecast soundings do show
some decent amounts of mean layer CAPE Tuesday into Wednesday,
though deep layer shear is modest at best. Kept pops for this
period in forecast.

They appear to show high pressure moving into the area toward the
end of next week. This would bring cooler and less humid
conditions to the area. Left consensus blend of model pops and
temperatures as is for now. Still looks rather mild for most of
this period, with cooler temperatures near Lake Michigan with
onshore winds.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...Cigs slightly under 1 kft to just above 1 kft
will continue over south central WI early this morning but rise to
3500-5000 feet for the late morning and afternoon. Any light fog and
mvfr vsbys will also end. Some stratus and light fog may also
develop briefly over SE WI this morning before cumulus form at 3500-
5000 feet. Other than some showers and isolated thunder early this
morning the highest chances for rain will be late afternoon and
evening. Areas of stratus development and 3-5sm br may occur again
late tnt.

MARINE...The dense fog advisory continues north of North Point
Lighthouse until 1 pm as humid air flows over the relatively cool
waters of Lake MI. Areas of fog may continue through the
afternoon and into the evening, which could also be dense.

&&

.MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for LMZ643-644.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DDV/Davis
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...Gehring
Sunday THROUGH Friday...Wood



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