Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 020838
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
338 AM CDT SAT AUG 2 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT IS EXPECTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TNT. THIS
SHOULD EFFECTIVELY PROVIDE AT LEAST A WEAK CAP ON THE WEAK
INSTABILITY. THE LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION SHOULD NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO
INITIATE CONVECTION GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS. THUS WENT DRY
TODAY AND TNT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE MS RIVER BY
12Z SUN WITH PERHAPS SCT CLOUD COVER LATE TNT MOVING INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL WI. FOR HIGH AND LOW TEMPS WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN MOST
GUIDANCE WHICH CORRECTS A COOL BIAS IN THESE SITUATIONS.

.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY WILL BRING MORE
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES TO THE FORECAST AREA. WENT WITH HIGHEST POPS
IN THE EAST WHERE THE LAKE BREEZE MAY CONTRIBUTE TO LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. THOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
JUST A LITTLE OVER AN INCH...STORM MOTION VECTORS ARE ONLY AROUND
10-15 KNOTS...SO COULD BE SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN MAKERS.

SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL LIKELY BE BETWEEN WAVES DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING THOUGH GIVEN GENERAL CYCLONIC
FLOW...INSTABILITY...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UP A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN SUNDAY. SHOULD SEE A SHORTWAVE THEN MOVE THOUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...SO MORE SHOWER/STORM CHANCES.

WILL PROBABLY SEE PRECIP CHANCES LINGER INTO TUESDAY AS THE
SHORTWAVE EXITS THE AREA.

SHOULD SEE TEMPS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

.WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW

MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER WITH THE PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SWATH OF HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES IN
THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...JUST A QUESTION OF
WHERE THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP. KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS GOING
THROUGH THIS PERIOD...THOUGH NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE
PERIOD. COULD FINALLY SEE SOME WIDESPREAD APPRECIABLE RAINFALL
LATER IN THE WEEK IF THE FARTHER NORTHERN SOLUTIONS
VERIFY...THOUGH STILL A LOT OF TIME FOR MODELS TO JUMP AROUND SOME
MORE.

SHOULD SEE TEMPS WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF NORMAL VALUES THROUGH
THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...PATCHY FOG THROUGH SUNRISE MAINLY IN LOW LYING
AREAS. HOWEVER KMSN WILL HAVE VSBYS RANGE FROM 1-3 MILES WHILE KUES
AND KENW MAY HAVE VSBYS DROP TO 3-5 MILES FROM 10-12Z. OTHERWISE MO
CLEAR SKIES OVER FAR ERN WI TODAY AND TNT WITH SCT CUMULUS AROUND 5-
6 KFT FOR KMSN THIS AFTERNOON INTO TNT. LIGHT FOG MAY THEN OCCUR
AGAIN AT KENW AND KUES EARLY MORNING SUNDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION...GEHRING
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DDV


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