639
FXUS61 KILN 091959
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
359 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A surface low moving east and away from Ohio this evening will
trail a cold front south through the CWA tonight in its wake.
A brief period of high pressure will build on Friday, then get
shunted to the southeast ahead of a surface low moving east
through southern Michigan. A trailing cold front will bring one
more threat of shower activity overnight and early Saturday,
with a dry period then expected to last through Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A well defined stationary front bisecting Ohio and CWA from w-e
will move southward this afternoon, reaching the Ohio River near
nightfall.

Showers have become fairly prolific over the CWA in the past
hour or so. Very few lightning strikes are noted moving into
west central Ohio, though that particular thunderstorm might
maintain this feature as it moves east across northern forecast
area. Some few cells in north central IN are also of a similar
strength with an equally similar sparsity of lightning. These
appear to be focused along s/w energy that is stretched out
nearby.

Warm air being pulled in on the south side of the front will
continue to pull in moisture and aide in shower formation, some
of which could become strong enough to support lightning and
potentially damaging wind if cores collapse. Shear along the
front, moving southward into a slightly unstable environment,
topped by s/w activity all led to keeping thunder threat across
the CWA, exiting east towards midnight.

Cold air behind the front will result in lows near 50 for most
locations, some upper 40s in west central Ohio.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
An upper level trough will move east through the Ohio Valley on
Friday. Uniform northwest flow will keep a reinforcing shot of
cold air over the CWA during this time, limiting Saturday`s
highs to within 2-3 degrees of 65. Overnight lows will range
from the upper 40s along and west of the I-75 corridor, mid 40s
in eastern CWA, and some low 40s in the Hocking Hills. This is
due to clearing sky cover early on. In the west, winds will be
shifting southwest ahead of the next system. Surface low
pressure moving east through lower Michigan will push a cold
front from w-e across the CWA later overnight. Cloud cover will
overspread the west, and winds should shift to southwest before
daybreak everywhere. This will not likely hold temperatures up
in the east since the flow doesn`t pick up until the front gets
closer which will be nearer daybreak in this area.

Showers will accompany the front and be focused in the northern
CWA. Thunder can`t be ruled out as strong s/w energy is
rotating around a southeastward diving upper trough, with the
apex affecting our area of concern. The trough will cross w-e
through the CWA late Fri night and early Sat morning. Did not
think that thunder will be the prevailing wx with this feature.
Most likely scenario attm is showers, with some embedded thunder
towards daybreak. Went a little wide with the pop footprint, but
limited any higher pops to just a 60% chance.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A mid level s/wv in the northwest flow aloft will be affecting
the region on Saturday. A cold frontal boundary will be moving
east through the morning, but with the embedded energy aloft
still yet to move through, showers and embedded thunderstorms
will linger into the first part of the afternoon. Pcpn will then
taper off from west to east from the latter half of the
afternoon into the evening. It will be breezy to locally windy
with wind gusts between 25 and 35 mph forecast. It will be cool
with highs ranging from the lower 60s north to near 70 far
south.

For Saturday night into Sunday, surface high pressure will
build east into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This will allow
skies to clear and the airmass to dry out. After cool lows in
the 40s, highs on Sunday will warm into the upper 60s to the
lower 70s.

For the period Sunday night into Monday, while the surface high
moves east, a mid level ridge axis will move east as well.
Clouds will increase and thicken by Monday as the next weather
system approaches from the southwest. Moist ascent will begin
during the afternoon hours which will lead to a chance of
showers and thunderstorms. After lows in the upper 40s to the
mid 50s, highs on Monday will warm into the mid/upper 70s as
southerly flow increases.

The Monday night into Wednesday period will be marked by a more
active weather pattern as mid level energy and a front pass
across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Showers and thunderstorms
will be possible. Lows in the 50s and lower 60s will be
followed by highs in the lower to mid 70s.

A brief respite may occur by Wednesday night into the first
part of Thursday before more active weather moves in for the end
of the work week and into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Active weather this afternoon and early evening will end later
in the evening, by midnight for most of the CWA. West-east
stationary front just north of a DAY-CMH line is a well defined
boundary at the surface with northeast wind to the north and
south-southwest wind to it`s south.

Activity is increasing this afternoon but confidence in deep
convection associated with thunderstorms was lacking, with the
possible exception of DAY in the afternoon. Will maintain an
active weather watch and amend forecast when/if thunder activity
becomes more likely or a deeper storm develops upstream from any
of the terminals.

Front passes south tonight and winds switch to the north. Cold
advection will lower cigs AOB 1kft area-wide that should lift
near or shortly after daybreak into MVFR, reaching VFR and
scattering somewhat in the afternoon and clearing by evening.

VSBYS will drop in shower/thunderstorm activity but should not
drop overnight with a decent north wind maintaining at 8-12kt.

OUTLOOK...showers with MVFR cigs/vsbys are expected later Friday
night into early Saturday, focused in the north nearer DAY/CMH.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Franks
NEAR TERM...Franks
SHORT TERM...Franks
LONG TERM...Hickman
AVIATION...Franks