412
FXUS65 KLKN 082103
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
203 PM PDT Wed May 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Temperatures warm into the low to mid 60s Thursday
with a chance of isolated thunderstorms across eastern Nevada both
Thursday and Friday. Temperatures continue to warm, and look to
remain in the 70s Saturday and beyond.


&&

.SHORT TERM...This afternoon through Thursday night.

Current satellite shows some mid level clouds spreading into the
state from the north and east. An upper-level low that was
previously stalled out over Montana the last few days, begins to
retrograde south and east over the next few days. Winds will
continue to be breezy out of the north this afternoon before
veering slightly out of the northeast and dissipating in
intensity into the evening. Temperatures are currently in the
upper 40s to low 50s throughout the area and are expected to warm
slightly with the remaining daytime heating hours. An isolated
snow shower is possible along the Jackpot-Jarbidge areas in
northern Elko county this afternoon, with little to no
accumulations. Lows tonight will drop into the upper 20s to lower
30s.


Thursday, the retrograding low will continue its dive south and
east, eventually becoming a cut-off low centered over Utah. With a
ridge of high pressure building to the north and west, and the
descending low pressure from the north and east, upper-level
convergence is noted across eastern Nevada. There will be areas
across eastern Nevada that will see favorable lifted indicies
(negative LI`s) indicating an area where vertical motion helping
thunderstorm growth may be present. Dew point temperatures remain
marginal in the upper 20s through the day, so by no means is this
a soaking rain or even a wetting rain (> 0.10"). Isolated to
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible from
eastern Elko, much of Eureka, all of White Pine, and the
northeastern part of NE Nye counties thursday afternoon. With low
dew points there may be a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms. Highs
are forecasted to be 10 degrees or so warmer across the area, in
the low to mid 60s. Winds will remain breezy in the afternoon out
of the east to east-northeast. Lows Thursday night will remain
slightly warmer do to cloud cover, generally in the mid to upper
30s.


.LONG TERM...Friday through next Wednesday

An upper low will be situated over the American southwest and
will facilitate afternoon rain shower and thunderstorm activity
across portions of the forecast area Friday and Saturday with
activity focused across central Nevada. Atmospheric moisture
content is rather modest and wetting rains are not expected,
especially given the northeast to southwest storm motion expected
on Friday in addition to a robust northeast surface wind across
the area. Lower probabilities Saturday. Temperatures continue to
warm thru Saturday as the low pressure trof progresses to the east
and heights rise over the region with northwesterly flow present.


Mostly dry the remainder of the long term period with high
pressure and a ridge building off the California coast though a
low probability for rain and thunderstorms will be present Monday
as a weak trof skirts northern Nevada from the northwest.
Temperatures will remain warm with some locales creeping into the
80s by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...Breezes trend lighter tonight with fair weather
remaining in place. Active weather across the area tomorrow
afternoon with VCSH or VCTS expected at all terminals. VFR will be
the primary flight category although brief periods of MVFR are
expected under any showers or thunderstorms that move on terminal
along with gusty and erratic outflow winds. Breezy northeasterly
gradient winds will also be present in the afternoon with gusts 25
to 30 mph.

KWMC remains AMD NOT SKED due to a communications issue.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...Elevated flows continue across several streams, creeks,
and rivers throughout northern and central Nevada due to seasonal
snow melt. Modest increases have been noted in faster responding
creeks and streams due to recent rainfall and snowfall. Increased
flows may additionally be noted on other streams and rivers over
the next several days. However, cool temperatures through the first
half of the week will continue to help mitigate high elevation
snow melt and subsequent runoff.

The Humboldt River at Battle Mountain resides in action stage and
is forecast remain in action stage for the next several days.

The Humboldt River at Comus resides in minor flood stage and is
forecast to remain in minor flood stage for the next few days
while gradually decreasing. The river is forecast to fall into
action stage mid week.

Wildhorse Dam currently resides in action stage and is forecast
to remain in action stage for the next several days.

The Owyhee River near Mountain City resides near action stage.
The river is forecast to continue to range in and out of action
stage for the next several days.


&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

91/92/92