Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 022043

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
243 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...High pressure will be the dominant weather feature
over the next few days pushing daytime highs well above normal (10
to 20 degrees!) under continued dry, sunny conditions through
about Wednesday. Late Wednesday afternoon models are showing the
first supporting signs for convective potential, though moisture
will almost certainly be lacking after this dry period and should
prevent storms from maintaining their strength for very long.
Things turn a bit more interesting on Thursday where steadily
increasing moisture and the potential for mid level disturbances
could be much more supportive for stronger thunderstorms.

The forecast for Friday and the weekend remains a bit more complex
and thus comes with less confidence. But basically the upper level
trough slowly approaching the west coast this week is forecast to
form into a closed low pressure system across the Desert Southwest
and Great Basin. This will place the Northern Rockies under yet
another seasonably cool easterly flow pattern with periodic
showers and thunderstorms. Some cooler air may come into play late
in the weekend or early next week. However that`s still very much
under evaluation at this point.


.AVIATION...High pressure has moved into north central Idaho and
western Montana and is forecast to remain through Tuesday. This
high pressure will continue to result in stable conditions with
generally light winds a limited cloud cover. Any aviation impacts
will likely only come from temperatures 10-15 degrees about
average resulting in high density altitudes.



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