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000 AGNT40 KWNM 290657 MIMATN Marine Weather Discussion for N Atlantic Ocean NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC 257 AM EDT Mon May 29 2017 .FORECAST DISCUSSION...Major features/winds/seas/significant .weather for the North Atlantic Ocean W of 50W from 30N to 50N. Over the short term, the new 00Z models present no major forecast problems. The models continue to forecast very similar tracks for the surface low now near 38N73W to continue ENE across the Nrn NT2 waters today, then pass SE of Georges Bank tonight. In regards to the forecast gradients associated with this system, believe the 00Z GFS solution looks resprentative. Per the 00Z GFS, late today/early tonight it still looks close as to whether the gradient immediately N of its forecast low will reach gale force across the NE NT2 zone ANZ905. But with the GFS forecasting low level stability to remain in place there, and the 00Z UKMET/ECMWF forecasting slightly weaker gradients, will continue to hold off on forecasting any gale warnings. So as was done previously, will populate our forecast wind grids with the 00Z GFS solution for this system by using our smart tool that will place stronger 00Z GFS first sigma level winds in unstable areas and weaker 00Z GFS 10m winds (which will be the predominant winds) in stable areas for today through Tue night with some minor additional edits mainly in deference to the 00Z ECMWF. In the long range, the majority of the 00Z global models (the 00Z global GEM looks like a too amplified and too strong solution and hence will be disregarded) forecast a relatively quiet weather pattern to persist. With generally minor timing differences, the 00Z GFS/UKMET/ECMWF all forecast a warm front to lift slowly NE from the central NT2 waters Tue night to across the Nrn NT2 and NT1 waters by Wed/Wed night with weak associated gradients (with max winds only in the 15-20 kt range). Then the 00Z GFS/UKMET/ECMWF share similar timing for a very weak (again with at most only 15-20 kt associated winds) cold front to push SE across the NT1 and Nrn/central NT2 waters Wed night/Thu, then stall and dissipate Thu night. Therefore will continue to populate with 00Z GFS first sigma/10m winds on Wed through Thu night. Then late Fri/Fri night, versus its previous respective runs, the 00Z GFS has trended slower with the next more moderately strong cold front to approach the Nrn waters from the NW, which is supported by the 00Z UKMET. The 00Z ECMWF though remains consistent in forecasting a more progressive cold fropa. So for now as a compromise, will continue to populate with 00Z GFS first sigma/10m winds on Fri/Fri night, but in deference to the 00Z ECMWF will then time shift these winds 6 hours faster. .Seas...The 00Z Wavewatch III and 00Z ECMWF WAM have both initialized the current seas reasonably well. With this in mind and with their forecast differences remaining generally in the 1-2 ft range, will populate our forecast wave grids with a 50/50 blend of the two wave models (with the 00Z Wavewatch III time shifted 6 hours faster Fri/Fri night) through Fri night. .Extatropical Storm Surge Guidance...N/A. .WARNINGS...Preliminary. .NT1 New England Waters... None. .NT2 Mid-Atlantic Waters... None. $$ .Forecaster Vukits. Ocean Prediction Center.

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