Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000 AGNT40 KWNM 011325 MIMATN MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC 825 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015 .FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT .WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N. AS THE STRONG COMPLEX LOW NR WRN NEWFOUNDLAND CONTS TO MOV SLOWLY OFF TO THE NE THE NWLY GRADIENT IN ITS WAKE CONTS TO GRADLY WEAKEN PRETTY MUCH AS PREVLY FCSTD. WINDS IN THIS GRADIENT ARE STIL UP TO MARGINAL GALE FORCE ACRS THE FAR ERN NT1 AND NE MOST NT2 WTRS...BUT SHULD BCM SUBGALE LATER THIS MORNING. MAX SEAS IN THIS GRADIENT ARE LIKELY IN THE LOW 20S...HIGHEST ACRS THE NE MOST NT2 WTRS...WHICH ARE STIL BEING HANDLED BETTER BY THE HIGHER 00Z ECMWF WAM VS THE 00Z/06Z WAVEWATCH III. OVER THE SHORT TERM...AS ALL OF THE LATEST MDLS FCST A HIGH PRES RIDGE TO MOV OFSHR TODAY INTO EARLY TONITE IT WL JUST BE A MATTER OF HOW FAST TO FCST CONDS TO DMNSH THRUT. THEN LATE TONITE AS A WARM FRONT DVLPS ACRS THE NRN NT2 WTRS THE MDLS ALL FCST A STRENGTHENING SLY GRADIENT TO DVLP THRUT THE NT2 WTRS. THEN MON THE LATEST MDLS ARE IN RSNBLY GOOD AGRMT WITH A DVLPG SFC LOW TO TRACK NE INTO THE NT1 WTRS WHL PULLING A STRONG COLD FRONT OFSHR...THEN RACE OFF TO THE NE MON NITE INTO TUE. WITH THE 06Z GFS BEING CONSISTENT VS ITS PREV 00Z RUN AND SPRTD BY THE OTHER MDLS...WL CONT TO USE THE PREVLY POPULATED 00Z GFS BL WINDS WITH SM ADDITIONAL EDITS IN DEFERENCE TO THE 06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF. SO THE END RESULT WL BE SM GNRLY MINOR CHNGS TO THE PREVLY FCSTD WRNGS AND ASCD CONDS WITH THIS SYSTEM. IN THE LONG RANGE...THERE CONTS TO BE SIG DIFFERENCES BTWN THE LATEST GLOBAL MDLS ON WED NITE INTO THU NITE IN RGRDS TO THE NEXT COLD FROPA. THE 00Z/06Z GFS AND 00Z NAVGEM HV SOLUTIONS VERY SMLR TO YESTERDAY/S 12Z ECMWF OF A STRONGER ATTENDANT SFC LOW CROSSING THE NT1 WTRS WED NITE...THEN PULLING THE STRONG TRAILING COLD FRONT S ACRS THE NT2 WTRS THU INTO THU NITE. THE 00Z GEM/UKMET/ECMWF NOW LOOK LK YESTERDAY/S 12Z GFS AND FCST A WEAKER ATTENDANT SFC LOW PASSING N OF THE NT1 WTRS WED NITE...THEN A SLOWER COLD FROPA THU...FLWD BY STRONG FRONTAL WAVES FORMING ON THE FRONT AND TRACKING NE THU NITE (WITH THE 00Z GEM/UKMET BEING LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN THE 00Z ECMWF). REGARDLESS OF WHICH SOLUTION WL VERIFY ALL OF THE GLOBAL MDLS TO SIGLY VARYING DEGREES FCST A STRONG NLY GRADIENT TO EVENTUALLY DVLP ACRS THE NT2 WTRS WITH GALES LKLY BY THU NITE. THE BIG FCST PROBLEM...WHICH WL BE DEPENDENT ON IF OR WHERE ANY FRONTAL WAVES DVLP...WL BE TO TRY TO FCST WHERE THESE GALES WL FORM (THE GFS/NAVGEM LIMIT THEM TO THE CNTRL/SRN NT2 WTRS WHL THE OTHER GLOBAL MDLS FCST MR WDSPRD GALES). WITH THE GEFS MEAN AND ECENS MEAN NOT SHOWING A STRONG SIGNAL ONE WAY OR THE OTHER...WULD HV BEEN INCLINED TO USE THE 00Z GFS SOLUTION FOR THIS SYSTEM WHICH IS MR IN LINE WITH THE LATEST WPC MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. BUT WITH THE PREV FCSTS HAVING USED THE 00Z ECMWF...DO NOT HV HIGH ENUF FCST CONFIDENCE TO REPOPULATE...BUT DUE TO THE CURRENT MDL DISPARITY WL BE TONING DOWN THESE ECMWF BL WINDS...ESPECLY ACRS THE NRN WTRS. SO WL BE MAKING SM GNRLY SMALL LONG RANGE CHNGS TO THE PREV OFSHR FCSTS. ----------------------------------------------------------------- PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SUMMARY...A STG LOW CNTRD S OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL DRIFT OFF TO THE NE TODAY. A WEAK HI PRES RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE COAST TODAY...THEN PASS E ACROSS THE OFSHR WTRS TONITE. A DVLPG LOW WILL APRCH FROM THE W TONITE...PASS NE ACROSS THE NT1 WTRS MON INTO MON NITE...THEN MOVE OFF TO THE NE LATE MON NITE INTO TUE. THE LOW WILL PULL A STG COLD FRONT E OVER THE NT2 AREA MON AND MON NITE. ANOTHER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE W TUE...THEN PASS E ACROSS THE OFSHR WTRS TUE NITE AND WED. A THIRD LOW WILL APRCH THE NEW ENG STATES WED...THEN PASS NE ACROSS THE GLF OF MAINE WED NITE INTO THU. THE LOW WILL PULL A COLD FRONT SE OVER THE OFSHR WTRS THU. A DVLPG LOW WILL MOVE NE ACROSS THE SRN NT2 WTRS LATE THU AND THU NITE. A THIRD RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE NEW ENG AND NEW JERSEY COASTS LATE THU AND THU NITE. MODELS...THE 00Z MED RNG MDLS ARE IN VRY GUD OVERALL AGREEMNT ACROSS THE OFSHR WTRS INTO WED...SO THE REPRESENTATIVE 00Z GFS 30M SOLN WILL BE USED FOR THE WIND GRIDS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. THE 00Z GFS LOOKS LIKE AN OUTLYER SOLN FOR THE LATE WED THRU THU NITE PRD...BECAUSE IT IS FASTER AND STGR WITH THE NRN STREAM LOW AND COLD FRONT LATE WED INTO EARLY THU...AND SIGNIF SLOWER AND WEAKER WITH A SRN STREAM DVLPG LOW FOR LATER THU AND THU NITE. THE 00Z ECMWF WILL BE USED FOR LATE WED THRU THU NITE...SINCE IT APRS TO BE THE MOST REPRESENTATIVE MDL SOLN ATTM. .SEAS...IN THE CURRENT STRONG NW GRADIENT THE 00Z MULTIGRID WW3 MDL INITIALIZED TOO LOW WITH THE SEA HTS...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF WAM LOOKS BETTER OVERALL BUT IS A FEW FEET TOO HI IN THE GLF OF MAINE. SO WILL USE A 2:1 ECMWF WAM/MWW3 BLEND FOR TODAY INTO SUN NITE. WILL THEN USE A 50/50 BLEND OF THE TWO MDLS FOR MON THRU THU NITE AS THE MWW3 CATCHES UP WITH THE ECMWF WAM AND DOES NOT LOOK UNDERDONE VERSUS THE ECMWF WAM. .EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...ESTOFS IS FCSTG A MORE NEG SURGE IN STG NW FLOW FROM DELAWARE BAY AND NE UP THE COAST FOR TODAY THAN IS ETSS. AS WAS THE CASE YDAY ESTOFS IS LIKELY OVERDONE AND A COMPROMISE BTWN THE TWO MDLS IS PREFERRED. WITH THE NEXT DVLPG LOW MOVG OFSHR LATE MON AND MON NITE THE TWO MDLS HAVE SIMILAR POS SURGES DVLPG N OF THE LOW IN NE FLOW. BUT ESTOFS AGAIN IS TOO AGAIN TOO HI WITH ITS FCST NEG SURGE IN NW FLOW BEHIND THE LOW ON MON NITE. .WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY. .NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS... .ANZ800...GULF OF MAINE... GALE TODAY. GALE MON. STORM MON NIGHT. GALE POSSIBLE TUE. .ANZ805...GEORGES BANK WEST OF 68W... GALE MON INTO MON NIGHT. .ANZ900...GEORGES BANK EAST OF 68W... GALE TODAY. STORM MON INTO MON NIGHT. GALE POSSIBLE TUE. .ANZ810...SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND... GALE MON INTO MON NIGHT. .ANZ815...SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND... GALE MON NIGHT. .NT2 MID ATLC WATERS... .ANZ820...HUDSON CANYON TO BALTIMORE CANYON... GALE MON INTO MON NIGHT. .ANZ915...HUDSON CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL... GALE MON INTO MON NIGHT. GALE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT. .ANZ920...BALTIMORE CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL... STORM MON INTO MON NIGHT. GALE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT. .ANZ905...THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL TO THE HAGUE LINE... GALE TODAY. STORM MON INTO MON NIGHT. GALE POSSIBLE TUE. GALE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT. .ANZ910...EAST OF THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL AND SOUTH OF 39N... STORM MON INTO MON NIGHT. GALE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT. .ANZ825...INNER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT... GALE MON INTO MON NIGHT. .ANZ828...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT... GALE TONIGHT. STORM MON. GALE MON NIGHT. GALE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT. .ANZ925...OUTER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO HATTERAS CANYON... GALE TONIGHT. STORM MON INTO MON NIGHT. GALE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT. .ANZ830...INNER WATERS FROM CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO CAPE HATTERAS... GALE TONIGHT. STORM MON. GALE MON NIGHT. GALE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT. .ANZ833...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE HATTERAS TO CAPE FEAR... GALE TONIGHT. STORM MON. GALE MON NIGHT. GALE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT. .ANZ930...OUTER WATERS FROM HATTERAS CANYON TO CAPE FEAR... GALE TONIGHT. STORM MON INTO MON NIGHT. GALE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT. .ANZ835...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR TO 31N... GALE TONIGHT. STORM MON. GALE MON NIGHT. GALE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT. .ANZ935...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR TO 31N... STORM MON. GALE MON NIGHT. GALE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT. $$ .FORECASTER VUKITS/SCOVIL. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

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