Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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794 AGNT40 KWNM 082038 MIMATN MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC 330 PM EST MON 8 FEB 2016 .FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT .WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N. 14Z AND 15Z HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT OVERPASSES CONFIRMED STORM FORCE WINDS OVER OUTER MID ATLC ZONES N OF HATTERAS CANYON AND ALSO S OF NEW ENGLAND WATERS AND GEORGES BANK. ASCAT SUGGESTS THAT THE HIGHER 12Z GFS 30M WINDS INITIALIZED BEST. 12Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREMEEMENT OVER THE NEAR TERM THAT HURRICANE FORCE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NE WITH THE MAXIMUM ASSOCIATED WINDS SLOWLY WEAKENING. THEN WITH NEXT DEVELOPING LOW AND STRONG COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE COAST NEAR THE VIRGINIA CAPES TONIGHT... THE 12Z GFS HAS BACKED OFF THE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IT HAD ADVERTISED IN PREVIOUS RUNS. 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF ARE SLIGHTLY DEEPER THAN 12Z UKMET AND 12Z CANADIAN. WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR DEEPER SOLUTION AND OPT TO KEEP CONTINUITY WITH HIGHEST WINDS TO 60 KT OVER OUTER MID ATLC WATERS TUE AFTERNOON. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED UKMET AND CANADIAN ARE ALSO SE OF GFS/ECMWF WITH SURFACE LOW TRACK. MODELS THEN INDICATE THAT IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH BASE OF LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD SEE ANOTHER SFC LOW DEVELOP AND MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA TUE NIGHT. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THIS LOW WILL ACCELERATE NE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WED NIGHT. WITH STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING IN BEHIND THE W TO NW GALES SHOULD PERSIST THU INTO FRI. FOR WIND GRIDS USED A 50/50 BLEND OF 12Z GFS 10M AND 30M WINDS WHICH WILL NOT RESULT IN MUCH CHANGE TO PREVIOUS WARNINGS. MODELS THEN DIVERGE LATE IN THE WEEK WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL LOW MOVING OFF THE MID ATLC COAST FRI/FRI NIGHT. 12Z ECMWF BACKED OFF FROM ITS PREVIOUS SOLUTION WHICH FEATURED A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW JUST SE OF CAPE COD BY EARLY SAT. 12Z GFS TRENDED FURTHER S WITH LOW FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUN AND ITS ASSOCIATED WINDS LOOK A BIT SUSPECT. BASED ON THIS AND TO KEEP SOME CONTINUITY USED 50/50 BLEND 12Z ECMWF AND PREVIOUS GRIDS FRI THROUGH REMAINDER OF FORECAST PERIOD. BY SAT AND SAT NIGHT 12Z MODELS ARE ACTUALLY IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN 24 HOURS PRIOR AS ALL SHOW FAIRLY WIDESPREAD NW GALES OVER WATERS. GIVEN THAT THIS AIRMASS WILL BE COLDEST OF THE WINTER AND POSSIBLY OF PAST SEVERAL WINTERS BOOSTED BLENDED WINDS BY 10 PERCENT GIVEN STRENGTH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINNING SAT. HAVE ABOVE AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE WITH THESE WEEKEND GALES. BUOY OBSERVATIONS OVER NEW ENGLAND WATERS FOR PAST FEW HOURS ARE INDICATING THAT BOTH 12Z WAVEWATCH III AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE 12Z ECMWF WAM ARE ABOUT 20 PERCENT UNDERDONE THIS AFTERNOON. USED THE HIGHER ECMWF WAM AS A START FOR TONIGHT AND BOOSTED THESE GRIDS UP FROM THERE. TRANSITIONED TO 12Z WW3 TUE/TUE NIGHT BEFORE USING 50/50 BLEND OF 12Z ECMWF WAM AND 12Z WW3 WED ONWARD. .EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...THE HIGHER ESTOFS APPEARS TO INITIALLY HAVE A BETTER HANDLE THAN THE ETSS WITH STORM SURGE AFFECTING NEW ENGLAND COAST AND NORTHERN MID ATLC COAST CURRENTLY. THEN AS IS OFTEN TIMES THE CASE THE ESTOFS IS LIKELY OVERDONE WITH NEGATIVE SURGE IN STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW TONIGHT THROUGH THU OFF SE US COAST AND CENTRAL/NRN MID ATLC AND NEW ENGLAND WED INTO FRI. .WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY. .NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS... .ANZ800...GULF OF MAINE... GALE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. GALE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT. .ANZ805...GEORGES BANK WEST OF 68W... STORM TODAY. GALE TONIGHT INTO TUE. GALE POSSIBLE THU INTO THU NIGHT. GALE POSSIBLE SAT. .ANZ900...GEORGES BANK EAST OF 68W... STORM TODAY. GALE TONIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. GALE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT. .ANZ810...SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND... GALE TODAY. GALE TUE. GALE POSSIBLE THU INTO THU NIGHT. GALE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT. .ANZ815...SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND... GALE POSSIBLE THU INTO THU NIGHT. GALE POSSIBLE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. .NT2 MID ATLC WATERS... .ANZ820...HUDSON CANYON TO BALTIMORE CANYON... GALE POSSIBLE THU INTO THU NIGHT. GALE POSSIBLE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. .ANZ915...HUDSON CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL... GALE TODAY. GALE TUE INTO WED. GALE POSSIBLE THU INTO THU NIGHT. GALE POSSIBLE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. .ANZ920...BALTIMORE CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL... GALE TODAY. STORM TUE. GALE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. GALE POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT. GALE POSSIBLE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. .ANZ905...THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL TO THE HAGUE LINE... STORM TODAY. GALE TONIGHT. STORM TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. GALE WED. GALE POSSIBLE THU INTO FRI. GALE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT. .ANZ910...EAST OF THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL AND SOUTH OF 39N... GALE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. STORM TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. GALE WED. GALE POSSIBLE THU INTO THU NIGHT. GALE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT. .ANZ825...INNER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT... GALE POSSIBLE THU INTO THU NIGHT. GALE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT. .ANZ828...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT... GALE TUE. GALE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT. .ANZ925...OUTER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO HATTERAS CANYON... GALE TONIGHT. STORM TUE. GALE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. GALE POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. .ANZ830...INNER WATERS FROM CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO CAPE HATTERAS... GALE TONIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. GALE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT. .ANZ833...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE HATTERAS TO CAPE FEAR... GALE TONIGHT INTO WED. .ANZ930...OUTER WATERS FROM HATTERAS CANYON TO CAPE FEAR... STORM TONIGHT INTO TUE. GALE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. GALE POSSIBLE WED NIGHT. GALE POSSIBLE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. GALE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT. .ANZ835...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR TO 31N... GALE TONIGHT INTO WED. GALE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT. .ANZ935...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR TO 31N... GALE TONIGHT. STORM TUE. GALE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. GALE POSSIBLE WED NIGHT. GALE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. $$ .FORECASTER CLARK. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

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