Marine Interpretation Message
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000 AGNT40 KWNM 201957 MIMATN MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC 357 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015 .FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT .WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N. THE OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE WRN ATL WILL REMAIN VERY PROGRESSIVE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK AND THIS WILL PRESENT A SERIES OF CHALLENGES. SAT PIX SHOW A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE ERN SEABOARD WHILE A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E/W OVR THE NRN NT2 WATERS. ASCAT PASS FROM LATE THIS MORNING INDICATES WINDS TO 40 KT OVR PTNS OF THE BALT AND HUDSON CANYON WATERS. THERE ARE NO OBS IN VCNTY OF MAX WINDS ALTHOUGH I AM EST WAVE HGTS NR 16 FT AND RISING. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH 72 HRS...THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE...AND BY DAY 5 THEY ARE WIDELY DIFFERENT. AT 06Z 04/25 THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A VERY DEEP LOW NEAR 40N/60W...THE OTHER MODELS ARE MUCH WEAKER WITH THAT DEVELOPMENT. FOR THAT REASON IM GOING TO HAVE TO TOSS OUT THE ECMWF DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. DURING THE FIRST 3 DAYS I WILL POP THE GRIDS USING EITHER THE 10M OR 30M GFS...DEPENDING ON THE STABILITY. FOR 12Z THU THROUGH 12Z SAT I WILL USE A 50/50 BLEND OF THE GFS AND UKMET. AFTER 12Z SAT THE MODELS ARE SIG DIFFEERENT WITH A LOW SYSTEM FCST TO MOVE OFF THE SE CST. THE UKMET IS VERY FAST AND DEEP WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER. THE GFS SOLN IS THE FURTHEST S OF THE MODELS AND NOT AS STRONG. DURING THIS TIME FRAME GIVEN THE WIDE DESCREPENCY IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO BLEND THE MODELS...THEREFOR I NEEDED TO PICK ONE AND IT IS THE GFS. SEAS...WILL USE THE WW3 THROUGHOUT THE FCST PERIOD WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS...NEEDING TO INCREASE BY 1 FT OR TWO IN CERTAIN HIGH WIND AREAS. .EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...AS THE SELY GRADIENT CONTS TO STRENGTHEN TODAY AND SHIFT NEWD UP THE COAST INTO TUE NITE... THE 12Z ESTOFS CONTS ITS PREV TRENDS OF FCSTG A SLIGHTLY A POSITIVE SURGE OF 1 TO 2 FT FM THE NRN NC COAST THRU SRN NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE GF OF MAINE TDY..THEN GRADU EASING FM S TO N LATE TNGT INTO TUE NGT. THE ETSS FCST VALUES ARE 1 FT OR LESS. .WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY. .NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS... .ANZ800...GULF OF MAINE... GALE TONIGHT INTO TUE. .ANZ805...GEORGES BANK WEST OF 68W... GALE TONIGHT. .ANZ900...GEORGES BANK EAST OF 68W... GALE TONIGHT. .NT2 MID ATLC WATERS... .ANZ915...HUDSON CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL... GALE TODAY. .ANZ920...BALTIMORE CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL... GALE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. .ANZ905...THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL TO THE HAGUE LINE... GALE TODAY INTO TUE. .ANZ910...EAST OF THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL AND SOUTH OF 39N... GALE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. $$ .FORECASTER SHAW. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

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