Issued by NWS
000 AGNT40 KWNM 101350 MIMATN MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC 835 AM EST WED 10 FEB 2010 .FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT .WEATHER FOR NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N. A COMPARISON OF THE 06Z GFS/NAM WITH THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS SHOWS LTL SGFNT CHANGE IN HNDLG OF PRESENT DPNG SYSTEM OFF MID ATLC CST AND THEY ARE IN GOOD AGRMT WITH GOBAL CONSENSUS. MAIN CONCERN IS MDLS MAY NOT BE DEEP ENUF BY 12 HR WITH WRN MEMBER OF DVLPG COMPLEX SYSTEM DUE TO STG DYNAMICS AND CAA ASCD WITH INCOMING UPR LOW. HENCE WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT WRNGS INCL HURCN FORCE CONDS DVLPG OVR NRN NT2 WTRS AND WILL KEEP STORM WRNG FOR FAR SRN ZONE BASED ON BUOY 41013 NOW SHOWING WNDS UP TO 37 KT SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. DUE TO RPDLY CHANGING CONDS NEAR TERM MRNG UPDATE WILL CONTAIN CHANGES MAINLY TO STARTING CONDS. EXTENDED...06Z GFS HAS COME INTO BETTER AGRMT WITH UKMET/ECMWF AND WILL THEREFORE USE. THE 06Z WAVE WATCH III LOOKS RSNBL EXCP MAY RAISE VALUES IN OUTER NT2 WTRS S OF LOW IN STG CAA BY A FEW FT LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... 00Z NAM/ECWMF/GEM/GFS/UKMET ARE ALL IN GUD AGREEMNT WITH THE DVLPG HURCN FORCE LOW MOVG OFF THE MID ATLC CST...AND TRACKING E OVER THE NRN NT2 WTRS TODAY INTO THU. ONLY DIFF NOTED IS THAT NAM/GFS ARE CARRYING TWO CNTRS WITH THIS SYSTM...WHILE THE OTHER MDLS ONLY HV ONE CNTR. MAIN FCST PROBLEM INVOLVES A DVLPG SRN STREAM LOW EXPCTD TO MOVE NE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS FRI NITE...THEN CONT NE OVER THE BERMUDA AREA ON SAT INTO SAT NITE. 00Z GEM HAS SAME TIMING AS 00Z GFS...BUT IS CONSIDERED TO BE AN OUTLYER SOLN ATTM BECAUSE IT IS MUCH DEEPER AND STGR THAN ANY OF THE MED RNG MDLS. 00Z GFS IS FASTER THAN THE 18Z GFS...SO IN THIS SENSE IT HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z UKMET SOLNS...ALTHO THE 00Z GFS IS STILL WKR AND SHOWING A MORE SUPPRESSED TRAJECTORY THAN THE ECMWF AND UKMET...SO WILL BE FAVORING A 00Z ECMWF/UKMET BLEND FOR FRI NITE THRU SUN. OTHW THE 00Z GFS LOOKS VRY REPRESENTATIVE AND WILL BE FAVORED FOR TODAY THRU FRI. SEAS...00Z WAVEWATCH III MDL SEA HTS LOOK REASONABLE...EXCPT ARE UNDERDONE BY A FEW FT OVER THE SRN NT2 WTRS ON SAT...GIVEN THE WAY THE SRN STREAM LOW IS BEING HANDLED BY THE 00Z GFS. EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...ETSS MDL INDICATES MAX POS SURGE IN 3.0 TO 3.5 FT RNG OVER LONG ISLAND SOUND TONITE...AND ANOTHER POS SURGE IN 2.0 TO 2.5 FT RNG NEAR NANTUCKET LATE TONITE INTO THU. WITH THE MED RNG MDLS LIKELY TOO SLOW TO DEEPEN THE DVLPG HURCN FORCE LOW...BLV A DEEPER LOW AND STGR E TO NE FLOW WILL DVLP THAN SHOWN IN THE GFS...SO THE SURGE VALUES CLD BE HIGHER THAN THE ETSS MDL GUIDANCE. .WARNINGS/FORECAST CONFIDENCE...WARNINGS ARE PRELIMINARY AND ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. ANY CHANGES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE. .NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS .GULF OF MAINE...GALE TODAY INTO THU...HI CONFDC. .GEORGES BANK...STORM TONIGHT INTO THU...HI CONFDC. .S OF NEW ENGLAND...STORM TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MDT CONFD. .NT2 MID ATLC WATERS .HUDSON TO BALT CNYN...STORM TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MDT CONFDC. .BALT CNYN TO HAGUE LINE...HURCN FORCE TONIGHT INTO THU...MDT CONFDC. .BALT CNYN TO HATTERAS CNYN...HURCN FORCE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MDT CONFDC. .HATTERAS CNYN TO CAPE FEAR...STORM TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MDT CONFDC. .CAPE FEAR TO 31N...STORM TODAY...LOW CONFDC. .FORECASTER BANCROFT. OCEAN FORECAST BRANCH.
