Marine Interpretation Message
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000 AGNT40 KWNM 010022 MIMATN MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC 822 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 .FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT .WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N. UPDATE...18Z NCEP SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTNDG NE TO SW ALONG THE MAINE COAST...WITH POST TROPICAL BONNIE CENTERED ALONG THE SE COAST NEAR CAPE FEAR. OTHERWISE THE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE HI PRES RIDGE JUST E OF THE NT2 AREA. LATEST AVAIL ASCAT HI-RES AND RAPIDSCAT PASSES FROM EARLIER TODAY SHOW 25 TO 30 KT WINDS IN S TO SW FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND SRN NT2 WTRS...WHICH MATCHES UP CLOSELY WITH THE GFS 30M AND ECMWF GUESS FIELDS. LIGHTNING DENSITY PRODUCT DATA AT 2310Z SHOWS A SMALL LINE OF SCATTERED TSTMS OVER THE NRN NT2 WTRS S AND E OF 1000 FMS...AND ANOTHER LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXTNDG MAINLY ACROSS THE INNER ZONES OF THE CENTRAL AND SRN NT2 WTRS. MAIN WEATHER FEATURES...THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS SE ACROSS THE OFSHR WTRS THIS EVENING INTO WED NITE...STALL OVER THE NRN NT2 WTRS THU INTO SAT NITE...THEN LIFT NE AS A WARM FRONT SUN AND SUN NITE INTO THE NT1 AREA. POST TROPICAL BONNIE WILL DRIFT NE ACROSS THE NT2 WTRS TONITE THRU SAT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E AND APPROACH THE MID ATLC COAST SUN NITE. MODELS...THE MED RNG MDLS ARE IN GUD OVERALL AGREEMNT ACROSS THE OFSHR WTRS DURING THE FCST PRD...EXCEPT GEM ABOUT SIX HOURS FASTER WITH THE WARM FRONT ON SUN NITE...WHILE THE UKMET IS ABOUT SIX HOURS FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONT FOR SUN NITE. WILL BE USING THE REPRESENTATIVE GFS 30M SOLN FOR THE WIND GRIDS THRU THE FCST PRD. AM NOT PLANNING TO MAKE ANY SIGNIF CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FCST TREND. THE CONSENSUS OF THE MDLS SHOWS SW WINDS OF 30 KT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NT2 WTRS FOR SUN NITE...SO DO NOT SEE ANY GALES IN THE OFSHR WTRS DURING THE FCST PRD ATTM. SEAS...WNA VERSION OF THE WAVEWATCH III MDL AND ECMWF WAM BOTH INITIALIZED WELL OVER THE OFSHR WTRS. THESE MDLS ARE IN REASONABLY GUD AGREEMNT DURING THE FCST PRD...ALTHO THERE ARE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES AT VARIOUS TIMES. WILL USE A 50/50 BLEND OF THE WNA WW3 AND ECMWF WAM THRU THE ENTIRE FCST PRD TO SMOOTH OUT THE DIFFERENCES. EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A. ----------------------------------------------------------------- PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE ASCAT PASS FROM 15Z INDICATES MAINLY LESS THAN 20 KT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS...THE EXCEPTION IS 25-30 KT OCCURING VCNTY OF THE GULF STREAM ACROSS N CENTRAL MID ATLANTIC WATERS. THE REMNANTS OF BONNIE AS SHOWN BY SAT PIX AND CURRENT OBS APPEAR TO REMAIN OFF THE N ERN CST OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND NEARLY STATIONARY. SEAS ARE GENERALLY RUNNING 3-7 FT ACROSS OFFSHORE WATERS. FOR THE MOST PART THE 12Z GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE 7 DAY PERIOD. THE REMNANTS OF BONNIE WILL TRACK VERY SLOWLY NE ACROSS THE WATERS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. WED INTO FRI A HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS MUCH OF THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS AS WINDS TURN E-NE. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE ERN SEABOARD ON DAY 5 AS WINDS SHIFT TO SW INADV OF BNDRY AND INCREASE TO 20-30 KT. ATTM I AM NOT FORECASTING ANY GALES TO OCCUR...ALTHOUGH A SMALL POSS REMAINS...ESPECIALLY S OF THE GULF STREAM. WILL POP THE WIND GRDIS USING THE GFS THROUGHOUT...WITH SMALL EDITS TO INCREASE WINDS AS NEEDED. WAVES...BOTH THE WNA AND WAM INITIALIZED WELL AND ARE VERY SIMILAR THROUGHOUT THE 7 DAY PERIOD. WILL POP THE SEAS USING A 50/50 BLEND OF THE TWO WAVE MODELS. LATEST OBS AGREE WELL WITH CURRENT GRIDS. ATTM I DONT PLAN ON MAKING ANY CHANGES TO CURRENT GRIDS OR ASSOCIATED TEXT FCST. .EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A. .WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY. .NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS... NONE. .NT2 MID ATLC WATERS... NONE. $$ .FORECASTER SCOVIL/SHAW. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

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