Marine Interpretation Message
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000 AGNT40 KWNM 031909 MIMATN MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC 309 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015 .FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT .WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N. THE LTST GOES IR/VIS IMGRY INDC A FRNTL SYS IN THE W ATLC...EXTENDING FROM SE OF NOVA SCOTIA TO THE SW THRU THE NRN AND CENTRL NT2 WTRS. ASCAT FM 15Z AND RSCAT FM 13Z INDC A LRG AREA OF 30 KT WNDS AHD OF THE BNDRY...WITH THE HIGHEST IN THE LESS STBL ENVRMT OVR THE GULF STRM. CRNT SFC RPRTS INDC ABT THE SAME...WITH WNDS UP TO 35 KT. THE 12Z GFS INDC A FEW GALES AHD OF THE FRNT...AND THE 12Z NAM/GEM INDC THE SAME...ALTHO THE INTNSTY AND CVG ARE GRTR. THE 12Z ECWMF/UKMET ARE A LTL WKR...BUT STILL INDC ABT 30 KT. ATTM FEELING GALES ARE LIKELY E OF THE OFSHR WTRS...WITH MDT TO HIGH CONFDC. ALSO...CRNT LGTNG DENSITY PROD INDC SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALNG THE BNDRY...WITH THE FRNTL FRCG...MAINLY IN THE LESS STABLE ENVRMT OVR THE GLF STRM. THE PREV FCST HAD SCTRD SHOWERS AND TSTMS...SO PLANNING ON KEEPING THEM IN THE NEXT PKG. SHORT TERM...THE 12Z GFS RMNS IN RSNBLY GUD AGRMT THRUT THE SHORT RNG WITH THE 12Z ECMWF SOLN...AND INDC THE FRONT WL STALL OVR THE AREA AND PERSIST OVR NT2 INTO SUN. THE 12Z MDLS ALL INDC A SHRTWV TROF WL MOV THRU THE AREA SUN INTO MON...DVLP ANTHR WAVE ALNG THE FRONT...AND PULLS THE BNDRY TO THE E. THE GFS INDC WNDS WL NEARLY REACH GL FRC OVR THE GLF STRM...WHICH DOES NOT SEEM OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH AND STRENGTH 0F THE H5 SHRTWV. ALSO...THE ECWMF AND UKMET INDC 25 TO 30 KT. HOWEVER...CONFDC IS STILL LOW WITH THE GALES...AS IT SEEMS MRGNL AT THIS POINT...SO WL KEEP OUT OF THE NEXT FCST. ALSO...THE 12Z GFS ALSO INDC THE CRNT RDG NR 50W WL MOV E INADVOF THE SHRTWV...BEFORE ANTHR UPR RDG BLDS OVR THE WATLC TUE. THE 12Z GFS AGREES WELL WITH THE 12Z ECMWF ON THE SEQUENCE OF EVENTS...AND HAS BEEN IN SOMEWHAT GUD AGRMT WITH THE ECMWF FOR PAST TWO RUNS...ESP WITH THE DVLPMT OF ANTHR WK LOW ALONG THE TAIL END OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT OVR NT2 MON INTO TUE. THE PREV RUNS FROM YDA HAD THE LOW JUST OFSHR...BUT NOW THE GUID HAS SHIFTED W...AND ALL INDC IT WL RMN JUST INLND. THE GFS SEEMS RSNBL INTO TUE AS IT AGREES WELL WITH THE MDL CONSENSUS...SO WL USE IN THE SHORT TERM. EXTENDED PD...THE 12Z MDLS ALL INDC ANTHR SHRTWV WL APRCH THE COAST WED...AND DRIVE ANTHR FRNTL SYS TWD THE W ATLC. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE PRGSV THAN THE REST OF THE GUID...AND IS ABT 12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE REST OF THE MDLS...AND INDC IT MOV THRU NT1 WED NGT. THE REST OF THE MDLS BRING THE FRNT JUST TO THE COAST BY LATE WED NGT...SO ATTM PLANNING ON TIME SHIFTING THE GFS TO MATCH THE TMG OF THE REST OF THE GUID. SEAS...THE 12Z NWW3 IS INIT OK IN THE W ATLC...THO SLGTLY LOW JUST E OF THE OFSHR WTR WITH THE GALES. THE MDL SEEMS RSNBL OTRW THRUT THE PD...SO WL GENLY FLW. .EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A. .WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY. .NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS... NONE. .NT2 MID ATLC WATERS... NONE. $$ .FORECASTER KELLS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

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