Marine Interpretation Message
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863 AGNT40 KWNM 242034 MIMATN MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC 434 PM EDT SAT SEP 24 2016 .FORECAST DISCUSSION...MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT .WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N. THE SAT IMG STILL INDC AREA OF HIGH PRES OVER THE NRN WATERS AND A BAND OF LIGHTNG ACROSS SRN WATERS WITH MORE INTENSE LIGHTNG TO THE E OF THE SRN WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH T.S KARL. THE LATEST 18Z OBSERVATIONS SHOW N TO NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT OVER THE NRN WATERS AND W TO NW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT OVER THE SRN WATERS. THE 18Z NCEP MAP NOW HAS A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS WITH A QUASI- STIONARTY FRONT OVER THE FAR SRN WATERS. INLAND HIGH PRES OVER CANADA JUST N OF THE GREAT LAKES HAS ITS SE RIDGE INTO THE NRN WATERS. THE PRES GRADIENT IS VERY SLACK ACROSS THE WATERS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS MODELS SUGGEST LITTLE ENERGY OVER THE SRN WATERS BUT MORE SIG ENERGY IS JUST N OF THE REGION. IN THE SHORT TERM SOME OF THE ENERGY FROM THE N WILL SPREAD S INTO THE FAR NRN WATERS BUT AN UPPERLEVEL RIDGE WILL QUICKLY PUSH THE ENERGY E OF THE WATERS AND MAINATIN JUST A RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. THE RESULTANT SFC FEATURES WILL BE A COLD FRONT MOVING SE ACROSS THE NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS THEN A RIDGE WILL SET IN AND KEEP A RELAXED PRES GRADIENT. THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE INITIALIZED WELL ESPECIALLY THE PRES FIELD AND WITH ONLY SMALL DIFFERENCES IN THE WIND SPEED. IN THE SHORT TERM ALL THE MODELS GFS/ECMWFHR/UKMETHR/NOGAPS/CMC AGREE WELL ON THE FEW SYNOP FEATURES OVER THE FRCST WATERS BUT DIFFERENCES EXIST AFTER 36 HOURS WHEN GFS AND ECMWFHR BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE REST WITH LOW PRES THAT WILL PASS TO THE NW. OTHERWISE THE MODELS AGREE ON KEEPING WINDS BELOW GALE FORCE THRU THE PERIOD. WILL STAY WITH GFS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD THEN ECMWF IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. IN THE SHORT TERM T.S KARL WILL REMAIN TO THE E AND BE MOVING FARTHER AWAY FROM THE WATERS. LOW PRES WILL PASS TO THE NW OF THE REGION AS IT PULLS A FRONT E OVER THE WATERS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. .SEAS...THE SEAS ARE STILL EQUALLY SMALL WITH PEAKS TO ONLY 8 FT OVER THE ERN PARTS OF THE SRN WATERS THAT ARE MAINLY DUE TO LARGE SWELL FROM T.S KARL. NWW3 WAVE MODEL HAS CONTINUED TO INITIALIZE VERY WELL WITH THE 18Z SEAS PATTERN AND SO IS THE ECMWFWAVE MODEL. BOTH ECMWFWAVE AND NWW3 WAVE MODELS HAVE BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT WITH OBSERVATIONS IN THE PAST AND AGREE WELL THRU MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL NOT MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WILL CONTINUE WITH NWW3. IN THE SHORT TERM SEAS WILL REMAIN HIGHER OVER THE FAR ERN PARTS. THE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THA 8 FT OVER THE ERN PARTS BUT BUILD OVER THGE NRN WATERS TO 8 FT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. .EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A. .WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY. .NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS... NONE. .NT2 MID-ATLANTIC WATERS... NONE. $$ NOTE: ON OCTOBER 06, 2016...THE NWS FTPMAIL SERVICE WILL DISABLE THE CURRENT EMAIL ADDRESS. THE NEW EMAIL ADDRESS IS LIVE NOW. PLEASE TRANSITION TO IT AS SOON AS POSSIBLE TO AVOID A SERVICE DISRUPTION. NEW EMAIL ADDRESS...NWS.FTPMAIL.OPS@NOAA.GOV /ALL LOWER CASE LETTERS/ FOR THE SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE...PLEASE GO TO HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OS/NOTIFICATION/SCN16-37FTPMAIL.HTM /ALL LOWER CASE LETTERS/ .FORECASTER MUSONDA. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

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