Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000 FXUS02 KWBC 201600 PMDEPD EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1159 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014 VALID 12Z SAT AUG 23 2014 - 12Z WED AUG 27 2014 ...PATTERN...GUIDANCE/UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS... THE WPC MEDIUM RANGE PRODUCT SUITE HAS BEEN PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A 50-50 BLEND OF COMPATABLE GUIDANCE FROM THE 06 UTC GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 00 UTC ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. FORECAST SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY IS PROBABLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE OVERALL CONSIDERING RECENT RUN TO RUN VARIANCES...LENDING AN ENSEMBLE MEAN APPROACH. HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND COOLING MID-UPPEL LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE WRN US EJECTS NEWD INTO S-CENTRAL CANADA AND THE N-CENTRAL US OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED LEAD SURFACE LOW/FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL FOCUS POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION/RAINFALL AS ENHANCED BY SOME CONNECTION WITH LINGERING SWRN US/ROCKIES MONSOONAL MOISTURE. THIS OCCURS AS UPSTREAM KICKER IMPULSE ENERGIES DIG BACK INTO THE NWRN US AND THIS TROUGHING SHOULD SUBSEQUENTLY WORK GRADUALLY OUT INTO THE S-CENTRAL CANADA AND THE N-CENTRAL US WITH MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER INCLUDING ANOTHER LEAD ROUND OF ACTIVE CONVECTION EARLY AND MID NEXT WEEK AS ENERGY BUMPS INTO A HOT/AMPLIFIED E-CENTRAL US MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. A DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFIED MEAN TROUGH POSITION DUG DOWN OFF THE NERN US MAY ALSO PROVE SLOW TO DISLODGE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK TO THE LEE OF THE E-CENTRAL US RIDGE. THIS WOULD ALLOW ASSOCIATED ERN US HIGH PRESSURE DAMMING TO THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS TO LINGER ALONG WITH A TRAILING LEAD FRONT/CONVECTION WELL DOWN INTO THE SERN US FOR SUMMER...BUT THAT HAS BEEN OFTEN THE CASE THIS YEAR. THE TROPICS ARE CERTAINLY MUCH MORE ACTIVE NOW AND WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. SCHICHTEL $$

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