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000
FXUS02 KWBC 190443
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1242 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

VALID 12Z SAT JUN 22 2013 - 12Z WED JUN 26 2013


THE GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A RESHUFFLING OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE UNITED STATES AT THE MEDIUM RANGE,
RESULTING IN A RETROGRESSION OF THE CURRENT LONGWAVE FEATURES BY
WEEK TWO. THE ECENS MEAN HAS SHOWN THIS RETROGRESSION MOST
CONSISTENTLY, AND SINCE THE 12Z/18 DETERMINISTIC ECMWF WAS SO
CLOSE TO THE EUROPEAN CENTRE ENSEMBLE MEANS OF LATE, CHOSE TO RELY
ON ITS MASS FIELDS FLESH OUT SOME OF THE MORE DIFFICULT TO FIND
BOUNDARIES--PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

AFTER A BREAK IN RAINFALL EARLY IN THE PERIOD, THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST SHOULD MOISTEN UP ONCE AGAIN AS A NEW TROUGH GATHERS
JUST OFFSHORE BY DAYS 6 AND 7. DOWNSTREAM, EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE PROGRESSION OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALONG THE POLAR FRONT THERE, WITH TEMPERATURES AT
OR BELOW NORMAL. SOME OF THE WARMEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR
SHOULD AT LEAST TEMPORARILY BLOW TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC REGIONS SOUTH OF THE POLAR FRONT DAYS 5 THROUGH 7, WITH
THE THREAT OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST
WILL REMAIN SHOWERY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS AN UPPER LOW
DRIFTS WESTWARD ON THE EQUATORIAL SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
THE FAR SOUTHWEST LOOKS DRY FOR NOW, WITH ANY MONSOONAL MOISTURE
HOLDING OFF UNTIL THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POPS UP NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.


CISCO

$$