Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000 FXUS02 KWBC 270354 PMDEPD EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1154 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016 VALID 12Z THU JUN 30 2016 - 12Z MON JUL 04 2016 LARGE SCALE CONUS PATTERN WILL SEE A SHIFT AWAY FROM A WESTERN RIDGE BY NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A BIT QUICKER/LESS AMPLIFIED TROUGH IN SOUTHERN CANADA/GREAT LAKES FRI-SUN AND MADE A RATHER LARGE CHANGE IN THE PAC NW -- ALLOWING HEIGHT FALLS TO PUSH INTO WA/OR SUN/MON. GFS SHOWED THIS AHEAD OF THE OTHER MODELS BUT THE CONSENSUS FAVORS A WEAKENED RIDGE, THOUGH MORE SHIFTS IN THE GUIDANCE ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. A CONSENSUS BLEND AMONG THE GFS/GEFS AND ECMWF/ECENS MEAN OFFERED A GOOD STARTING POINT. AT THE SURFACE, NORTHERN STREAM FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD THU/FRI AND MERGE WITH THE IN SITU STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION THIS PERIOD -- FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY INTO VA/NC. RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY INITIALLY NEAR THE KS/MO/OK/AR BORDERS, TRANSLATING EASTWARD NEXT WEEKEND AS MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WARM/HOT IN THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS BUT CLOSER TO AVERAGE TO THE NORTH. FRACASSO $$

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