Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000 FXUS02 KWBC 011530 PMDEPD EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1130 AM EDT WED OCT 01 2014 VALID 12Z SAT OCT 04 2014 - 12Z WED OCT 08 2014 THE MOST RECENT ENSEMBLE MEANS--06Z/01 GEFS, 00Z/01 ECENS, 00Z/01 CMC--ARE PAINTING THE SAME PICTURE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AT THE MEDIUM RANGE. THE DEEP TROUGH THAT EXTENDS INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EARLY IN THE PERIOD LOSES AMPLITUDE SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER BY DAY 7 AS NEW JET ENERGY SURGES INTO SOUTHWESTERN CANADA. THE PACIFIC JET ENERGY IS COMPRISED OF BOTH POLAR AND TROPICAL DISTURBANCES--ALWAYS A DICEY COMBINATION FOR DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS DURING THE AUTUMN. FORTUNATELY, WHERE THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS ARE DIVERGENT, THE ENSEMBLE MEANS CORRELATE WELL. AS IT STANDS, THE PATTERN IS A DRY ONE FOR THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES, WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE SHUT OFF BY THE MEAN RIDGE IN THE WEST AND MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO SHUT OFF BY THE DOMINANT WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW IN THE BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EAST. CISCO $$

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