Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000 FXUS02 KWBC 270551 PMDEPD EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 150 AM EDT SAT MAY 27 2017 VALID 12Z TUE MAY 30 2017 - 12Z SAT JUN 03 2017 PATTERN OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS RELATIVELY AGREEABLE IN SHOWING PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHICH MID-LEVEL RIDGING MOVING FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AHEAD OF AN INVADING AND POTENTIALLY DISJOINTED/SEGMENTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. FOR THE PRESSURES, 500 HPA HEIGHTS, AND WIND GRIDS USED AN EVEN SPLIT OF THE 12Z CANADIAN, 12Z UKMET, 12Z ECMWF, AND 18Z GFS FROM TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE USING INCREASING PERCENTAGES OF THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z NAEFS MEANS THEREAFTER. THE TEMPERATURE, DEW POINT, PRECIPITATION CHANCES, CLOUD, AND WEATHER GRIDS WERE BASED ON AN EVEN SPLIT OF THE 12Z NAEFS/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND DETERMINISTIC GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF GUIDANCE. THE DAYS 4-7 QPF WERE BASED ON A ROUGH COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS SOLUTIONS. WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST DUE TO LINGERING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING. MEANWHILE, WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF INTERMOUNTAIN WEST DESPITE AN EXPECTED COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH SOME ASSOCIATED LATE-SEASON PRECIPITATION. THE GREATEST POSITIVE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND IDAHO THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL FUEL POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS PORTIONS OF TX, THE DEEP SOUTH, THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND OHIO VALLEY EARLY TO MID WEEK. THE TAIL END OF THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND INTERACT WITH A PAIR OF CLOSED LOWS APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, BRINGING ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF TX, THE LOWER- TO MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND MID-SOUTH LATE NEXT WEEK. ROTH/KONG $$

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