Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000 FXUS02 KWBC 300538 PMDEPD EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 137 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014 VALID 12Z SAT AUG 02 2014 - 12Z WED AUG 06 2014 ...OVERVIEW AND GUIDANCE PREFERENCES... AMPLIFIED RIDGE/TROUGH IS STILL FORECAST TO RELAX IN THE MEDIUM RANGE... BUT OTHERWISE MAINTAIN ITS ORIENTATION. THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUE TO FORM A RELATIVELY GOOD CLUSTER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY... THOUGH THE UKMET/ECMWF/ECENS MEMBERS CONTINUE TO BE A BIT QUICKER TO RAISE HEIGHTS OVER IN/OH AS IT LIFTS A VORT MAX INTO THE NORTHEAST WHILE THE GFS/GEFS AND CANADIAN RUNS DIG IT A BIT FARTHER SOUTH. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE SINCE THESE SMALLER DETAILS HAVE HAD LITTLE CONTINUITY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. BY NEXT WEEK... ENERGY INITIALLY UP NEAR ALASKA IN THE SHORT TERM SHOULD SLIDE THROUGH NW ONTARIO AND DIG INTO QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT ON TIMING THAN THE GFS... BUT THE GFS LIES CLOSER IN AMPLITUDE TO THE ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS /THE ECMWF BEING AMONG THE DEEPEST 10 PERCENT OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS/. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GEFS AND ECENS MEANS AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ANY DETAILS THAT WILL AFFECT THIS EVOLUTION. OVERALL... CONFIDENCE IS AT LEAST AVERAGE. ...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS... THE LINGERING SFC BOUNDARY ALONG THE I-10 AND 95 CORRIDORS WILL BE A FOCUS FOR RAINFALL... BUT NOT CONTINUOUS... INSTEAD BEING DRIVEN BY THE DIURNAL CYCLE AS WELL AS WEAK BUT IMPORTANT SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. THAT BOUNDARY SHOULD WASH OUT FIRST IN THE GULF AND THEN EVENTUALLY BY MIDWEEK AS THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSH INTO THE NORTHEAST... WITH ANOTHER PUSH OF MODESTLY COOL AIR. IN THE WEST... MONSOONAL MOISTURE SHOULD REACH A PEAK... PER PW VALUES... LATE THIS WEEKEND IN THE SW AND THEN AROUND TUE/D6 FARTHER NORTH IN UT/NV. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE PAC NW... BUT TEMPERED A BIT IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AMID DAILY SHOWERS/STORMS. FRACASSO $$

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