Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000 FXUS10 KWNH 191830 PMDHMD MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 229 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014 VALID APR 19/1200 UTC THRU APR 23/0000 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 12Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH MODEL PREFERENCES ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT RANGE FORECASTS. DEEP TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WEST TUESDAY SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY SHORTWAVE PASSING BY NRN MAINE MONDAY DEEP CYCLONE DEPARTING THE SOUTHEAST ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE THE MODELS SHOW REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THESE SYSTEMS, AND A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE IS PREFERRED TO IRON OUT SMALLER SCALE DETAIL DIFFERENCES WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE CONSIDERING THE MINIMAL SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE. SHORTWAVE/LOW MOVING THROUGH GREAT LAKES/NEW ENG MON & TUE ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: ECMWF/GFS COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE THE 12Z UKMET/12Z CANADIAN ARE STRONGER WITH THIS OVERALL SYSTEM, SHOWING THE MAIN LOW MIGRATING MORE NORTHWARD INTO QUEBEC THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE. THE CANADIAN HAS TRENDED WEAKER WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER ITS PAST DAY OF RUNS -- ADJUSTING AWAY FROM ITS BIAS -- ARGUING FOR A WEAKER SOLUTION. THE PATTERN IN WHICH IT IS EMBEDDED OTHERWISE FAVORS THIS SYSTEM TO GAIN AMPLITUDE WITH TIME AS RIDGING UPSTREAM BUILDS. THERE ARE TWO CLUSTERS SEEN IN THE 00Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, WITH THE MORE SIGNIFICANT CLUSTER DOWN TOWARDS THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS. THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF ARE PREFERRED WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE CONSIDERING THE CONTINUING SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE. ...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... ...500 MB FORECASTS AT www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml... ROTH $$

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