Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000 FXUS10 KWNH 310629 PMDHMD MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 228 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014 VALID JUL 31/0000 UTC THRU AUG 03/1200 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 00Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH FINAL PREFERENCES ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT TERM FORECASTS. NORTHWEST/NORTHERN CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE THE 00Z UKMET/CMC HAVE ADJUSTED WEAKER WITH ENERGY MOVING FROM NV INTO THE NORTHERN CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY AND ARE NOW IN LINE WITH OTHER GUIDANCE. GIVEN THESE POSITIVE CHANGES...THE 00Z MODELS NOW SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT SUCH THAT A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE APPEARS REASONABLE FOR THIS SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENING UP AS IT REACHES SRN CALIFORNIA BY SUN ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: NON 00Z NAM BLEND CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH THIS FEATURE AND WITH THE INTENSIFICATION OF A MID-LEVEL LOW CENTER OVER THE CA/MX BORDER BY 12Z SUN. THE 00Z NAM APPEARS TOO STRONG WITH THE MID-LEVEL REFLECTION COMPARED TO THE REMAINING MODELS. THE 00Z UKMET/CMC SHOW DECENT AGREEMENT TO THE GFS/ECMWF BUT DESPITE THEIR LESS FAVORABLE RUN TO RUN AGREEMENT...CAN BE INCLUDED WITH A NON-NAM BLEND. UPPER TROUGH LINGERING IN THE ERN HALF OF THE NATION ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT HERE SO A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE IS ADVISED TO SMOOTH OUT SMALLER SCALE DIFFERENCES. ...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... ...500 MB FORECASTS AT www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml... OTTO $$

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