Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000 FXUS10 KWNH 271834 PMDHMD MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 134 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015 VALID FEB 27/1200 UTC THRU MAR 03/0000 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 12Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT RANGE FORECASTS. UPPER LOW/TROUGH DRIFTING THROUGH CA SAT-MON SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE NRN CONTINENTAL DIVIDE MON ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF/UKMET COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE THE 12Z NAM/12Z CANADIAN ARE QUICKER TO MOVE THE UPPER TROUGH EASTWARD THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE. BELIEVE THE CANADIAN AND NAM ARE TOO FAST HERE SINCE ENERGY KEEPS TRYING TO DIG INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH, KEEPING IT SLOW-MOVING. A COMPROMISE OF 12Z GFS/12Z UKMET/12Z ECMWF IS PREFERRED WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. BOUNDARY IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: GFS/UKMET/ECMWF COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: SLIGHT ABOVE AVERAGE LINGERING DETAIL ISSUES CONTINUE WITH THE PLACEMENT OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN TX SUNDAY. THE 00Z CANADIAN IS THE FARTHEST SOUTH DUE TO ITS QUICKER FRONTAL PROGRESSION ACROSS THE MIDWEST/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WHICH WAS NOT PREFERRED UP NORTH. THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE SHOW PLAUSIBLE SOLUTIONS, WITH THE GFS FARTHER SOUTH THAN SEEN IN ITS RUN FROM THIS TIME YESTERDAY. TAKING THE CONVERGING GUIDANCE AS A GUIDE, PREFER A COMPROMISE OF THE GFS/UKMET/ECMWF WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSING NEW ENGLAND MON ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: ECMWF CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THE 12Z GFS WAS ON THE SLOW SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE WITH THIS SYSTEM, WHILE THE 12Z NAM/12Z CANADIAN/12Z UKMET/12Z ECMWF WERE QUICK -- THERE HAS BEEN A QUICKENING TREND AMONGST MUCH OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE. THE 00Z ECMWF/12Z GEFS/09Z SREF MEANS PREFERRED AN INTERMEDIATE TIMING, ALONG THE LINES OF THE 12Z ECMWF. THIS PREFERENCE IS PREFERRED WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS PA LATE SATURDAY ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE THE GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. ...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... ...500 MB FORECASTS AT www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml... ROTH $$

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