Issued by NWS
000 FXUS10 KWNH 220623 PMDHMD MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 122 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009 VALID NOV 22/0000 UTC THRU NOV 25/1200 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO ADMNFD FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 00Z/22 FINAL MODEL PREFERENCES...INCLUDING THE ECMWF ANY INITIALIZATION ERRORS WITH THE NAM AND GFS DO NOT APPEAR TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THEIR SOLUTIONS. ...WAVE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GULF COAST DAY 1... THE NAM TRACKS THIS LOW SOUTH OF THE GEM GLOBAL AND ECMWF...WITH THE GFS AND UKMET SENDING THE IMPULSE OUT FLATTER...EAST OF THE ATLANTIC BENCHMARK. WILL RELY ON THE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GEM GLOBAL AND ECMWF...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE TREND OF THE LAST FEW DAYS OF A MORE DEVELOPED SYSTEM. ...WAVE CROSSING THE NORTHWEST DAY 1... THE NAM AND GFS TRACK THIS LOW SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE GEM GLOBAL AND ECMWF OVER THE PLAINS DAY 3...AND ARE NOT AS DEEP. THE UKMET IS A SUPPRESSED OUTLIER. AS WITH THE ATLANTIC COAST SYSTEM DOWNSTREAM...WILL RELY ON THE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GEM GLOBAL AND ECMWF WITH THIS WAVE. ...COLD FRONT GRAZING THE NORTHWEST EARLY DAY 3... THE NAM...GFS...AND UKMET ARE LESS AMPLIFIED THAN THE GEM GLOBAL AND ECMWF WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS DAY 3. AGAIN...CONSIDERING THE CLOSE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GEM GLOBAL AND ECMWF WITH THE FLOW ACROSS THE NATION...AND THE SUPPORT OF THE TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS...WILL RELY ON THEIR MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTIONS. ...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML... ...500MB FORECASTS AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML... CISCO $$
