Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 222103
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
103 PM AKDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST IN TO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE STALLING IN THE VICINITY OF A PARC TO TO PABT TO PATA LINE.
A SECOND SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN NORTH SLOPE AND SEWARD
PENINSULA WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WEST COAST WEDNESDAY. THE SECOND
FRONT DRIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD AND STALLS ALONG WITH THE FIRST
BOUNDARY OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR.

YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE WEST COAST AND
WESTERN INTERIOR THURSDAY AND STALLS OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR.
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH PERSISTS DOWN RANGE OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC AND WESTERN BERING SEA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE PUMPED INTO THE BROOKS RANGE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST INITIALLY AND THEN FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE TROUGH
DEEPENS AND DRIFTS EAST FROM THE CENTRAL INTERIOR TO EASTERN
ALASKA. 48 HOUR TOTALS FROM THE SERIES OF SHORT WAVES BRINGS ONE
HALF TO ONE INCH OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE CENTRAL BROOKS RANGE.
SMALL RIVERS WILL RISE AS RUNOFF FROM ONGOING AND EXPECTED PRECIP
EVENTS FALLS ON RECENTLY SATURATED BASINS. FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED...HOWEVER SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL RISE RAPIDLY AND
CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH THROUGH THE WEEK.

THE PARADE OF SHORT WAVES DIVING SOUTH DEEPENS THE LONG WAVE
RIDGE TROUGH OVER MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE LONG WAVE TROUGH BECOMES
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED BY THE WEEKEND. WET CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR MOST OF
NORTHERN ALASKA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COLD AIRMASS DIVES SOUTH
INTO WESTERN NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE LATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AND THE CENTRAL NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE THURSDAY.
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS AGAIN POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST ALASKA AND
THROUGH THE BROOKS RANGE PASSES BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ATIGUN
PASS COULD SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW THURSDAY.

RELATIVE MEASURES OF PREDICTABILITY REMAIN HIGH WITH MINIMAL
DIFFERENCES NOTED BETWEEN SYNOPTIC MODELS IN LONG WAVE POSITION
AND STRENGTH INTO THE MID AND LONG TERM. COOL AND WET PATTERN ON
TAP FOR ALL OF NORTHERN ALASKA THROUGH THE MID AND LONG TERM.



COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE LOWER 30S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
EVENING AS A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE YUKON HOLDS FAST. ISOLATED WET
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST INTERIOR TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SERIES OF FRONTS WILL CONTINUE TO STALL OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR
AND BROOKS RANGE. 48 HR RAIN FALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
ONE HALF TO ONE INCH RANGE OVER THE CENTRAL BROOKS RANGE. WILL
UPDATE SPS AND HYDRO STATEMENT TO INCLUDE RISING WATER LEVELS ON
SMALL STREAMS IN ZONES 218..219...216...205 AND 206 IN ADDITION TO
CURRENT STATEMENT COVERING ZONE 217. LONG DURATION EVENT COMBINED
WITH RAIN FALL AMOUNTS...AND SNOW AT ELEVATION IN THE BROOKS RANGE
SHOULD NOT SEND RIVERS OUT OF THEIR BANKS HOWEVER EXPECT SMALL
STREAMS TO RISE RAPIDLY AND CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH THROUGH THE WEEK
IN THESE AREAS.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.
&&

$$

CCC JUL 14


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