Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK
FXAK69 PAFG 251001
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
201 AM AKDT THU AUG 25 2016
The 00z model suite initialized well against the 00 analysis and
verified well against the 06z analysis. Model spread continues to
be reasonable in the short range and has improved over the weekend
however models spread early next week remains large with low
confidence on any particular solution.
Aloft at 500 hpa...a ridge continues to build over southeast
interior and yukon as a shortwave over the central Bering Sea
plows the east along the west coast of Alaska. The shortwave will
continue to move west into the western interior today and into the
central and eastern interior Friday. The shortwave will be the
focal point for instability and isolated thunderstorms and
scattered to widespread rain showers along an east of a Fort
Yukon to Fairbanks to McGrath line this afternoon and early
evening while scattered showers will prevail to the west. Mid
level southerly flow over the central and eastern interior which
has allowed for drying chinook flow for the last couple of days is
becoming more southwest. Deep layer southwest flow will allow moisture
to flow into the central and eastern interior today and Friday
with most locations progged to receive less than one quarter inch
to the west of Fairbanks and between one quarter and one half inch
to the east. A developing wave currently over Bristol Bay will
move north and east along an old frontal boundary into the
interior today and will enhance moisture transport into the
interior. A weak ridge builds back over the western and central
interior late Friday as the shortwave exits to the northeast.
The low ceilings and fog have diminished on the North Slope with
dry southwest flow aloft save for the persistent marine layer along
the immediate coast to the east of Barrow where light north to
northeast winds along with ceilings and areas of fog persist.
Expect ceilings to drop and isolated rain showers to develop
thursday night over the western North Slope and Friday over the
central North Slope as a warm front approaches from the west.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.
Gusty chinook winds along and near the passes of the Alaska Range
continue to diminish. Isolated thunderstorms are expected along a
Fort Yukon to Fairbanks to McGrath line this afternoon and early
evening. Min RH values are expected to remain above 40 percent
over northern Alaska today and Friday.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ225.
CCC AUG 16