Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 231321 CCA
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
521 AM AKDT Wed Aug 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Models...Short term solutions are in good agreement with good run
to run continuity. Midrange has significant differences that need
to be sorted out. Initialization was good when compared against
the 23/06Z local surface analysis.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Long wave trough remains over the state but
has shifted back to the west over the west coast and eastern
Bering Sea this morning and will slide east over the Western
Interior by Thursday morning, and the Central Interior by Friday
morning. 537 dam low has moved from over Point Hope on Tuesday to
the Central Brooks Range this morning, and will slide northeast to
be over Deadhorse by Thursday morning at 538 dam, and continues to
move northeast through Friday as it weakens over the Beaufort Sea
and merges into a trough in the high Arctic. A 550 dam low that
moved rapidly east across the Bering Sea is over Nunivak Island
this morning at 547 dam, and will move southeast across Bristol
Bay to Kodiak Island by Thursday morning at 543 dam. A 540 dam low
will develop over Kotzebue Sound this evening, and move south over
Nunivak Island by Thursday morning, then absorbs the low over
Kodiak Island as it moves south over the southern tip of Kodiak
Island by Friday morning at 534 dam. Weak ridging over the Gulf of
Alaska will push northeast over the Yukon Territory today and
tonight, then push west over Interior Alaska Thursday morning with
543 dam heights pushed over the Western Interior. The ridging will
slide north over the eastern Brooks Range Friday, and the low over
Kodiak Island will move to the northern Gulf of Alaska by Saturday
morning. At 850 hpa...Temperatures slowly cooling the remainder
of the week. Zero isotherm lies from Deadhorse to Bettles to
Tanana to Emmonak to south of St Lawrence Island this morning, and
will start pulling back to the northwest this evening and lie from
Barter Island to Cape Romanzof by Thursday morning, and from Old
Crow to Kotzebue to St Lawrence Island by Friday morning.

Surface...A ridge will persist over the northwestern Arctic. A
broad area of low pressure remains over the state and extends
northeast over the Beaufort Sea. A trough lies over the Brooks
Range to MacKenzie Bay YT then southeast. A bubble high has moved
over the Central and Eastern Interior this morning, and will move
over the upper Yukon Flats this evening. The rapidly moving low
that moved across the Bering Sea last night is over the Pribilofs
this morning and will move over Bristol tonight at 991 mb, and
leeside troughing will develop north of the Alaska Range tonight
with a 996 mb low developing in the trough southwest of Fairbanks.
A weather front will swing around the low into the Gulf of Alaska
Thursday evening, and over the Alaska Range by Friday morning.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Autumn in the Arctic, cloudy with
occasional rain, areas of fog, and cooling temperatures.
Temperatures are falling over the Western and Central Brooks
Range, and snow will fall at the higher elevations today with snow
levels falling through the day. Tonight snow can be expected above
2000 feet from around the Dalton Highway west. 2 to 4 inches of
snow is possible, and may stick for a while in the passes but
with the ground being warm it will melt off. Winds north to
northeast at 10 to 20 mph along the coast with variable winds to
10 mph in the Brooks Range.

West Coast and Western Interior...Low over the western Brooks
Range continues to spin clouds and showers into the area, mainly
north of Norton Sound as weak ridge of high pressure has developed
over the lower Yukon Delta. Everything moves east this afternoon
so showers tapering off over the coastal areas. Still some upslope
precipitation in the Central Brooks Range that could produce
around 0.50 inch of rain north of Ambler. Patchy fog, especially
along the coast and over St Lawrence Island. Surf continues from
Cape Espenberg west to the Bering Strait subsiding. Temperatures
cooling today, then steady the next couple days with not much
change.

Central and Eastern Interior...Mostly cloudy, some sprinkles this
morning, but expect clearing this afternoon as weak high pressure
moves over the area and sets up over the Upper Yukon Flats
tonight before merging into a ridge that will develop over the
Arctic Coast Thursday. Low moving to the northern Gulf of Alaska
will spin some showers north to the interior Thursday. Gap flow
winds setting up for the eastern Alaska Range and may gust to
around 45 mph near passes, diminishing Thursday afternoon. Slightly
cooler temperatures today, then slightly warmer the next couple
days as south flow across the Alaska Range develops.

&&

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Drier today in the interior, but not
significantly. Relative Humidity values remain high and will
generally be above 40 percent. Sustained winds less than 15 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Rivers steady or trending down.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.

&&

$$

SDB AUG 17


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