Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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000
FXAK69 PAFG 201536
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
636 AM AKST Fri Jan 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...

A transition in the weather pattern over the state continues. The
deep trough with upper level low is now located over the North
Slope and continues to move north. It will be located in the high
Arctic by Saturday morning. The surface low over Anvik will move
northeast to Tanana by noon.

Models maintain good agreement in the short term. They begin to
diverge around the 60 hour mark and differ considerably in the
long term. Confidence decreases in the long range as a result.

A surface 993 mb low near Anvik is moving northeast towards
Tanana by this afternoon spreading cloud cover and snow to the
Interior. This low continues to advect in warmer temperatures
ending the bitter cold in the central and eastern Interior. As
this low moves towards the Interior, a pressure gradient is
developing in the upper Yukon and Tanana River Valleys creating
wind chills to 50 below as the cold air is filtered out of those
areas. Temperatures still remain cold on the West Coast and North
Slope in connection with the upper level trough that is centered
over the north slope.

Early next week will see an upper level ridge push into the state
from the Yukon that will keep temperatures near normal rising to
above normal late next week. On the surface a high pressure will
be present over the northern half of the state while a low will
move through the Gulf of Alaska. A gradient may develop between
the two that could make for windy conditions in the Alaska Range
and Tanana River Valley.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Advisory for AKZ212-AKZ221-AKZ223-AKZ225.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ214-AKZ215-AKZ227.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ210.
&&

$$

BJB JAN 17



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