Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 230015
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
415 PM AKDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND CONTINUE TO PERFORM WELL IN THE SHORT
TERM BUT EXHIBIT MODERATE SPREAD IN THE MID TERM. MODEL SUITES
CONTINUE TO DISPLAY CONSIDERABLE RUN TO RUN SPREAD AND MODEL TO
MODEL SPREAD NEXT WEEK. CONSENSUS IF ONE CAN BE FORGED OUT OF THE
WIDELY VARYING MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR A LARGE STORM TO MOVE INTO
THE BERING SEA NEXT WEEK WITH POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS AND COASTAL
FLOODING ALONG THE WEST COAST...TOO EARLY AT THIS POINT TO PIN
DOWN DETAILS...CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA AT 522 DAM LOW REMAINS PARKED OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF OF ALASKA AND A RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA. A
498 DAM LOW SITS OVER EASTERN SIBERIA AND WILL PLAY A ROLE IN
SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER MUCH OF ALASKA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE LOW
MOVES EAST INTO THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA THURSDAY MORNING AND
WEAKENS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND
MOVES IT SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE NORTHERN GULF THRU NIGHT. A
STRONG SHORTWAVE PUSHES ONTO THE WEST COAST THURSDAY AND INTO HE
WESTERN INTERIOR FRIDAY. THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST INTO
THE CENTRAL INTERIOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND EXITS INTO CANADA SATURDAY.

ON THE SURFACE A 1038 MB HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR 80 NORTH AND
175 WEST AND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS A 984 MB LOW OVER EASTERN
SIBERIA MOVES EAST AND NORTH INTO THE WESTERN CHUKOTSK PENINSULA
AS A 978 MB LOW AND DISPLACES THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. AS
THE HIGH MOVES NORTH THE STRONG GRADIENT THAT HAS BEEN PARKED ON
ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE AND PROVIDING STRONG WIND HEADLINES IN THE
COASTAL ZONES WILL MOVE OFF SHORE TONIGHT AND IN THE WESTERN
NORTH SLOPE AND TOMORROW ON THE EASTERN NORTH SLOPE.

SMALL CRAFT TO GALE FORCE SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF A STRONG FRONT
MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL PROVIDE A LONG DURATION
BUT FAVORABLE FETCH TO SOUTH AND WEST FACING COAST LINES NORTH OF
NUNIVAK ISLAND. HOISTED HIGH SURF ADVISORIES FOR ZONES
207...209...211...212...213 AND 214. NOT EXPECTING COASTAL
FLOODING AS WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE VARIABLE ENOUGH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND TO LIMIT COASTAL FLOODING POTENTIAL...HOWEVER 6 TO 8 FOOT
WAVES WILL BREAK NEAR SHORE WITH 1 TO 2 FOOT STORM SURGE EXPECTED
IN MOST AREAS AND 2 TO 3 FOOT STORM SURGE EXPECTED IN EASTERN
NORTON SOUND.

LIGHT SNOW...MIXING AT TIMES WITH RAIN IN THE YK DELTA WILL MOVE
EAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WILL DROP 1 TO 2 INCHES ON THE WEST
COAST THURSDAY AND LESSER AMOUNTS INLAND AS THE FRONT PUSHES
EAST. EXPECT AROUND AN INCH IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 1 INCH OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN INTERIOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.



COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...
HIGH SURF ADVISORIES HOISTED FOR ZONES 207...209...211...212...213
AND 214 AS PROLONGED SOUTHWEST WIND EVENT WITH WINDS IN THE 25 TO
35 MPH HOUR RANGE WILL BUFFET SOUTH AND WEST FACING COAST LINES.
6 TO 8 FOOT WAVES WILL BREAK NEAR SHORE AND MOST LOCATIONS WILL
RECEIVE A 1 TO 2 FOOT STORM SURGE. EASTERN NORTON SOUND WILL
RECEIVE A 2 TO 3 FOOT SURGE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE BERING SEA STORM NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ207-AKZ209-AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ214.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ240-PKZ245.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ230-PKZ235.
&&

$$

CCC OCT 14



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