Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

000
FXAK69 PAFG 221203
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
303 AM AKST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS BEEN OBSERVED SO FAR THIS MONTH...BENIGN
WEATHER IS SET TO CONTINUE FOR MOST OF NORTHERN ALASKA DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE SHORT AND MID
TERM SOLUTIONS...SO A NUDGE OF A MODEL BLEND TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST WILL SUFFICE. EVEN THOUGH THERE IS MORE AGREEMENT IN THE
LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN...THERE ARE
STILL SOME DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF FEATURES.

A NEARLY STATIONARY OCCLUDED STACKED LOW OVER THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WHILE WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. SEVERAL WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS ACCOMPANIED BY
SHORTWAVES ALOFT WILL ROTATE AROUND THIS DYING LOW...ONE OF WHICH
WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF SHOT AT SOME FLURRIES TO PARTS OF THE
INTERIOR SUNDAY. A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW AND A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED 35O MILES
NORTH OF BARTER ISLAND WILL RELAX TODAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY SLIDES SOUTHEAST.

BY TUESDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LOW AND ITS SURFACE REFLECTION WILL
MOVE INTO THE BERING FROM THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA. BOTH THE LOW
ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE ARE PROGGED TO STALL OUT IN THE BERING
LATE NEXT WEEK. CONSEQUENTLY...THIS MEANS THAT AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN SET UP OVER
MAINLAND ALASKA...KEEPING THE DRY SPELL GOING INTO THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

NORTH SLOPE...ONGOING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ZONE 203 WILL BE
CANCELLED WITH MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE. HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER ONGOING PER RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
HOWEVER...WINDS ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A STRONG WIND
HEADLINE. WINDS OF 35 TO 45 KT ARE STILL BEING REPORTED IN ZONE
204...SO STRONG WIND HEADLINE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. OTHER THAN THE
WINDS...THE NORTH SLOPE LOOKS TO BE REASONABLY QUITE UNDER CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

WEST COAST/WESTERN INTERIOR...BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR PARTS OF THE
WEST COAST WILL CONTINUE BEFORE WEAKENING LATE SUNDAY. EXISTING
STRONG WIND HEADLINES FOR ZONES 212 AND 213 WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE...WHILE ZONE 210 WILL BE ADDED. MODELS HINT AT THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIP TO BE MID WEEK SOUTH OF THE BERING STRAIT...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT.

EASTERN/CENTRAL INTERIOR...NOT TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD...BUT
THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
REINFORCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE ONSHORE LATER
TODAY AND THEN NORTH OVER THE INTERIOR BY SUNDAY MORNING. MOISTURE
CONTENT WITH THIS IS LACKLUSTER AND WILL FIZZLE OUT AS IT
ENCOUNTERS THE DRY AIRMASS THAT RESIDES OVER THE INTERIOR. CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL FLURRIES FOR PARTS
OF THE INTERIOR SUNDAY.

WILL BE CANCELING THE WIND ADVISORY FOR ZONE 218 SINCE WINDS ARE
BELOW CRITERIA. FOR ZONES 220 AND 221 WIND ADVISORIES WILL
CONTINUE...EXPECTING THAT THE WINDS WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. INDIAN MOUNTAIN REPORTED
SEVERAL GUSTS OVERNIGHT...PEAKING AT 61 MPH...SO THE HIGH WIND
WARNING FOR ZONE 219 WILL CONTINUE FOR NOW.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ220-AKZ221.

HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ219.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ240-PKZ245.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ235.
&&

$$

LTH NOV 14


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.