Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 031040
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
240 AM AKDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT 60 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL LOW
WITH SOME SURFACE REFLECTION HAS MOVED UP THE ALCAN BORDER. THIS
COMPLEX FRONT HAS PROVIDED QUITE THE DELUGE IN RAINFALL IS SOME
AREAS..SUCH AS FAIRBANKS SHATTERING THE OLD RECORD RAINFALL
AMOUNT WITH 0.42 INCHES OF RAIN.

THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FRONT HAS SAGGED SOUTH OF THE FAIRBANKS
AREA BUT SHOULD RETREAT BACK NORTHWARD TODAY. THIS SHOULD CAUSE
MORE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL INTERIOR BUT DON`T
EXPECT THE HEAVY AMOUNTS AS PREVIOUSLY. HOWEVER...THIS COULD BE A
DIFFERENT STORY IF CONVECTION IS ALLOWED TO DEVELOP IN THE
MORNING. BUT THIS SEEMS SOMEWHAT DOUBTFUL AT THIS TIME.

THE PARAMETERS ARE IN PLACE FOR A LARGE AREA OF POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM ABOUT BETTLES TO RUBY AND SOUTH TO MCGRATH AND
THEN WEST TO THE NULATO HILLS.

THERMAL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION DO THE STATE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN FACTOR FOR
CONVECTION THIS WEEK. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE NORTH
FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH THE WEEK AS WELL.

RELATIVELY COOL AIR REMAINS PARKED OVER THE ARCTIC COAST WITH NO
REAL MECHANISM TO DRIVE IT OUT. COLD AIR ALOFT OVER THE SAINT
LAWRENCE ISLAND WATERS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MOIST OVER THE INTERIOR TODAY. DO NOT
EXPECT WINDS OR LOW RH VALUES TO COME INTO PLAY FOR ANY RED FLAG
CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NONE AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH SEVERAL PLACES IN THE INTERIOR
RECEIVED UPWARDS OF A HALF AN INCH OF RAIN...IT HAS TAPERED OFF
AND NOT MUCH MORE HEAVY RAIN FALL IS EXPECTED OVER THESE AREAS.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

CF MAY 16


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