Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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000
FXAK69 PAFG 292152
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
152 PM AKDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Aloft...
A weak ridge stretching from northwest Canada west over northern
Alaska will persist through Fri and then slowly weaken through
next week. a low in the Gulf of Alaska will persist through the
weekend. A series of short wave troughs will rotate from the
trough over the southern Yukon Territory and then west across the
Alaska Range. These features combine with moderate instability
over much of the Interior to cause isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms to much of Interior Alaska through the weekend
with more widespread showers closer to the Alaska Range. Each
short wave will add progressively more moisture to the southern
Interior and Alaska Range through Fri. The strongest short wave
with the heaviest precipitation is expected on Fri.

A weak short wave trough from Anvik to Tanana to Arctic Village
is causing isolated thunderstorms now north of Tanana. There will
be scattered thunderstorms from Tanana southwest some with small
hail.

A second short wave trough from Paxson to Eagle will move to
Denali to Seven Mile by 4am Thu and to McGrath to Indian Mountain
by 4pm Thu. There will be an enhanced band of showers and
thunderstorms along this feature.

A third Short wave trough in the southern Yukon Territory will
move to Nabesna to Northway to Mayo by 4am Thu...to Denali to
Fairbanks to Eagle by 4pm Thu...to McGrath to Tanana by 4am
Fri...and to Anvik to Ambler by 4pm Fri. Scattered thunderstorms
with small hail will occur just west of the trough and moves west
with the trough. Widespread showers along the trough will move
west with the trough as well.

A fourth and by far the strongest short wave trough will move to
the extreme SE Interior by 4am Fri and to Denali to Eielson AFB to
Eagle by 4pm Fri...and to McGrath to Bettles by 4am Sat. Expect
showers with this feature. The heaviest rain will be in and near
the Alaska Range.

Surface...
An arctic front from Barter Island to Point Lay will move to
Barter Island to Wainwright by 4am Thu...to Barter Island to
Barrow by 4pm Thu...then start to move north of Barrow Fri.
A 1024 mb high north of the Arctic Front will retreat NE Fri.
This is causing stratus and fog along the front that will thin
south of the front Fri west of Deadhorse.

High pressure over Norton Sound will move over St Lawrence Island
Thu and then over the northern Bering Sea Fri. This will cause
stratus over the northern Bering and southern Chukchi Seas through
Fri with locally dense from from Midnight tonight to 10am Thu in
the Bering Strait to Kivalina.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
models similar on large scale pattern but differ on details with
timing and strength of weak short waves rotating over the SE
Interior over the next few days. Prefer the GFS as it appears to
initialize the best with the first short wave, and it has been in
good agreement with he ecmf for the last day with the short wave
timing and precipitation. All models agree that the short wave
moving west across the Alaska Range on Fri is the strongest and
wettest of the short waves in the short term.


Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Rh will generally remain above 30% the next several days.
There will be a significant number of Lighting strikes...1000+...
in the SW Interior from Tanana southwest today...and again across
most of the southern Interior on Thu.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Expect 1-3 inches of rain tonight through Fri southeast of an
Eagle to Quartz Lake to Minchumina with the heaviest amounts in
the Alaska Range. There will be isolated heavy showers through
Thu in Thunderstorms...but then expect more widespread heavy
showers Thu Night over the SE Interior and Eastern Alaska Range
spreading to the Western Alaska Range Fri. This is expected to
cause rapid rises on creeks across the Alaska Range Thu Night
through Fri Night along with possible mudslides. At this time
the occurrence and location of possible flooding is uncertain.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

JB JUN 16



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