Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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000
FXAK69 PAFG 290912
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
112 AM AKDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
00Z SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND VERIFIED WELL
AGAINST THE 06Z ANALYSIS AS FAR AS FEATURE STRENGTH AND POSITION
HOWEVER TEMPERATURE VERIFICATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR
CONTINUES TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS WITH GUIDANCE VERIFYING IN
EXCESS OF 10 DEGREES TOO COLD COMPARED TO 6Z AND 9Z OBSERVATIONS.
WILL LEAN HEAVILY AGAIN ON INHERITED FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES AND
A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF WITH INHERITED FORECASTS FOR
FEATURE POSITION AND STRENGTH. MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT MINIMAL
SPREAD BETWEEN MODEL FAMILIES AND FROM RUN TO RUN IN THE SHORT
TERM HOWEVER IN THE MID TERM AND LONG TERM THERE IS INCREASED
SPREAD AS PATTERN SHIFT MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO CAUSE
PROBLEMS AND LIMITS PREDICTABILITY IN THE LONG RANGE.

ALOFT AT 500 HPA...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA AND EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE YUKON AND NORTHWEST
TERRITORIES WILL HOLD ON THROUGH MID WEEK BUT WILL BE NUDGED
FURTHER EAST AS THE LONG WAVE DIGS SOUTH AND EAST OVER MAINLAND
ALASKA AND A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE BERING SEA MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL BRING A COOL AND DRY PATTERN FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN ALASKA
BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

A SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG A BARROW TO KOTZEBUE LINE WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED LOW AND DRIFT TO THE SOUTH TO BE
CENTERED NEAR KOTZEBUE SUNDAY EVENING AND WILL THEN DRIFT WEST TO
BE CENTERED 100 NM NORTH OF THE BERING STRAIT MONDAY EVENING. THIS
WAVE WILL BE THE FOCAL POINT FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE CENTRAL BROOKS
RANGE AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS NORTHWEST INTERIOR AND WEST
COAST. A FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH ARRIVING INTO THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR THIS
EVENING HOWEVER DOWN SLOPE CHINOOK FLOW WILL LIMIT PRECIP WITH THE
FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR THIS
EVENING. WINDS THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES WILL INCREASE TODAY
WITH STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED THIS EVENING BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP TO AROUND 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON IN SNOWPACK SPARSE CHINOOK
ZONES ALONG THE NORTH FACES OF THE ALASKA RANGE...THESE ARE THE SAME
AREAS THAT CHINOOK WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER
FUELS ARE NOT YET A CONCERN IN THESE AREAS.

THE NEAR RECORD WARMTH OF THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL GRADUALLY
COOL INTO NEXT WEEK BUT WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S INTO MID WEEK. THE SNOW PACK OVER
THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO RIPEN AND EXPERIENCE SLOW
DAYTIME MELTING ESPECIALLY ON SOUTHERLY EXPOSURES. SNOWPACK MELT
REMAINS SLOW WITH NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ240-
PKZ245.
&&

$$

CCC MAR 15



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