Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 272324 CCA
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
324 PM AKDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Relatively quiet weather in forecast for the holiday weekend as
high pressure dominating Western and Northern Alaska. Models are
fairly consistent with upper level features through next 84 hours
before slowly diverging. However, even when the diverging between
the GFS and ECMWF it is more of a timing difference and strength
of the upper level features. Basically can expect warmer and drier
weather over majority of Alaska as the upper level high pressure
system moves from the Yukon Delta towards the Seward Peninsula by
Saturday. The high will move towards Cape Lisburne by Monday as
the upper level low over the Gulf of Alaska along with weak
easterly wave from Canada moves across southern Alaska pushing the
high pressure northward. Resulting in isolated shower and
thunderstorm activity for areas south of the Fortymile country
toward Northway on Sunday and Monday.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range: Easterly winds continue across the
the Arctic coastline through Sunday as the surface high pressure
north nearly 200 NM northeast of Barrow will slowly shift towards
Banks Island by Monday. Although easterly winds will increase in
strength, it will still remain below small craft or brisk wind
criteria through Saturday evening. Then easterly winds will become
easterly 20 to 35 mph Saturday night through Sunday night. With
warming temperatures there will also be more breaking off of
shorefast ice from areas Cape Lisburne and Point Lay to Icy Cape.
In terms of fog, this open water could contribute more to the low
stratus ceilings and poor visibility that may develop along Arctic
coast. In general, do not anticipate widespread dense fog but
conditions could fluctuate around various location along the
coast.

West Coast and Western Interior: Dry and warm conditions on tap
for the weekend with temperatures soaring into 70s on Seward
Peninsula Saturday and Sunday. Majority of West Coast and Western
Interior have cleared in sky cover, but there is lingering cloud
cover on the western side of the surface high pressure located
over the Yukon Delta.

Central and Eastern Interior: Still some lingering cloud cover
across the Interior. However, this should clear out overnight.
Expect temperatures to be warmer over the weekend along with
drying trend. An upper level low develops over the Yukon Canada and
drops south into Eastern Alaska so there will be some isolated
shower activity beginning Saturday afternoon. There will also be
increased northerly winds extending from the Fortymile country to
the Alaskan Range on Saturday evening as this upper level features
moves west. The instability increases Sunday and Monday with
potential for isolated thunderstorms as well for areas from
Chicken south to Northway and expanding to include Alaska Range on
Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A warming and drying trend will continue into
early next week. On Sunday conditions could approach
meteorological red flag criteria in zone 215; however, at this
point there is not enough confidence to issue any fire weather
products. No thunderstorm activity is expected through Saturday.
There is the potential for some isolated thunderstorms on Sunday
in the far southeastern corner of the forecast area. On Monday the
coverage area for the isolated thunderstorms expands to include
all of the Alaska Range. &&

.HYDROLOGY...Do not anticipate any issues. With the warmer
temperatures, expect to see some snowmelt allowing for increased
runoff over the weekend with potential rises in the rivers.
However, there is no concerns at this point even with the
increased runoff.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

MAK MAY 16



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