Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 131453
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
553 AM AKST SAT FEB 13 2016

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER AIR...
COLD UPPER LOW CENTERED ABOUT 50 MILES WEST OF CAPE LISBURNE WILL
MOVE TO NEAR WRANGEL ISLAND BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND TO 300 MILES
WEST NORTHWEST OF WRANGEL ISLAND BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. OVER THE
NORTHERN ALASKA MAINLAND...A WEAK FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MONDAY. WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN
ALASKA MAINLAND TUESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN
WEAKEN THURSDAY WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT LIKELY PUSHING IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN ALASKA BY FRIDAY.

SURFACE...
1041 MB HIGH CENTERED 600 MILES NORTH OF PRUDHOE BAY WILL MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD TO NEAR 81N/120E BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WEAKENING TO
1038 MB. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE ARCTIC
COAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE ARCTIC COAST EAST OF
ICY CAPE THROUGH TONIGHT. BLOWING SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS EAST WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASE. UP TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN ARCTIC SLOPE TODAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

EXCEPT FOR LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS IN ALASKA RANGE PASSES TODAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE INTERIOR OR WEST COAST
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER
PARTS OF THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND NORTHERN WEST COAST AREAS.

TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHERN ALASKA ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL BY LATE NEXT WEEK...CURRENT
GFS/ECMWF RUNS INDICATING A TREND TO COLDER ALOFT MOVING
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST CANADIAN ARCTIC REGION.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ226.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ206.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ230.
&&

$$

RF FEB 16


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