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000 FXAK67 PAJK 162333 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 233 PM AKST Tue Jan 16 2018 .SHORT TERM...A low is tracking across the central Gulf and its associated front will pass over the panhandle late tonight. Another front coming up from the North Pacific is on its heels and will move into the southern Panhandle Wednesday while the parent low stalls southwest of Haida Gwaii. A short dry period should exist between these two weather fronts Wednesday. Temperatures continue to cool off, but stay mild through mid week. The GFS and NAM were the preferred models. Previous updates remain on track and no significant changes were observed in the new models, so no significant changes made to the existing forecast. Minor edits and updates made to areas of precipitation and on temperatures. Gales force winds over the eastern gulf verified by at least one ship observation earlier today and CMAN buoys located in the gulf. Gales will subside from south to north through the night with no significant shift in wind directions. Easterly winds over the southeastern gulf will ramp back up again to gale force tomorrow along the northern periphery of the low approaching from the southwest. Pressure gradient between the panhandle and western British Columbia remains tight, so small craft winds over the eastern inner channels were included for tomorrow in the afternoon forecast update. .LONG TERM.../Thursday through Tuesday as of 10 pm Monday/ Complicated flow pattern looks to be developing in the long range. Higher latitudes will be transitioning to a blocky pattern with a ridge over the Bering Sea, a trof over mainland AK, and another weak ridge over NW Canada by late week. Mid latitudes will be somewhat progressive with many shortwaves passing E across the PAC toward the PAC NW states. The interaction between the northern and southern streams will be the tricky part of the forecast. Some models suggest phasing of streams over the EPAC/gulf of AK area for late weekend and early next week, with other models keeping streams separate. Main adjustment for Thu-Fri was to shift a low that moves toward the Haida Gwaii area in short range further S and to decrease POPs. Also, a cooling trend looks likely for much of the long term period, but there are some model differences on how cold it will get. Temps were tweaked down some based on trends. Did make some wind tweaks through 00z Sun to show more low level ridging over the gulf. Overall, due to the complicated flow pattern developing, forecast confidence is well below average. && .AVIATION...Some areas of wind shear still exist, but conditions in terms of wind and CIGS are slowly improving. Wind shear becomes an issue again Wednesday afternoon as a low level jet to 60 kt out of the southeast associated with the approaching Haida Gwaii low moves over the southern panhandle. && .AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories... PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for AKZ023. Strong Wind until 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ017. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ041>043-051-052. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-022-031>036. Small Craft Advisory due to Seas for PKZ053. && $$ KV/Fritsch/RWT Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau

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