239
FXAK67 PAJK 131329
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
529 AM AKDT Sun Jul 13 2025

.SHORT TERM.../Through Sunday night/ Weak surface low still
lingering just off of Baranof Island this morning is still
bringing some rainfall to the central and southern panhandle this
morning though rates have been light. The other feature of note is
an upper level low situated over the northern inner channels that
is very evident on satellite imagery this morning. Winds are
rather light with most areas 15 kt or less.

That upper low will be the bringer of change as it slides
southeast across the panhandle today. It has already cleared a lot
of the lower level clouds from the northern panhandle this morning
and as it moves southeast the easterly flow in its wake will do
the same for the lower and mid level clouds and precip for the
rest of the panhandle. Expect most areas to be dry with less cloud
cover by this evening.

Tonight we will mainly be looking at marine layer low clouds
forming over a good portion of the gulf. Boundary layer RH
guidance indicates that these clouds will likely not make much
headway into the northern inner channels tonight (likely only
getting to Gustavus) due to some offshore flow there, but the
southern inner channels may see low cloud advance as far as
Wrangell, Petersburg, and Clarence Strait due to more onshore flow
in that area. Also with the clearer skies and low winds tonight
some fog is likely for the panhandle especially for the central
and southern areas where the atmosphere has not had to chance to
dry out from recent rains yet.


.LONG TERM.../Monday through Saturday/...

Key messages:
- Dry and partly cloudy conditions through the week
- Potential for rain to return Thursday and Friday
- Warming temperatures mid week

Details: Ridging moving north through the gulf will push the
previous low out of the panhandle and set up for drier weather
Monday. Clouds are expected to linger through the week, though the
potential for skies to clear out keeps growing every day. The
panhandle is expected to see partly cloudy conditions for much of
the week, though periods of more or less clearing are possible
throughout the day. Typically after there has been sufficient
surface heating a marine boundary layer may develop, bringing
clouds back to the northern panhandle. The southern panhandle will
continue to get more and more clear through the week, with
outflow winds picking up to moderate to fresh breezes coming out
of Clarence Strait. Clearing skies and warmer temperatures aloft
should allow for temperatures to rise near 70 degrees at the
surface for a majority of the panhandle Tuesday and Wednesday,
with the highest chances for the southern panhandle and
communities in the inner channels. These temperatures could be
offset in many areas by the development of an afternoon sea
breeze. In the interior, Hyder could even see temperatures reach
near 80 degrees during this time.

A disorganized surface level low with associated upper level
troughing looks to bring precipitation back to the northern
panhandle Thursday, spreading south through Friday. Model spread
leaves much to be desired at this point, with many aspects of this
system varying from run to run including timing and associated
precipitation amounts. The GFS depicts a more organized system
that will send a stronger frontal band over the northern panhandle
with lots of precipitation, while most other models stay
relatively dry and calm Thursday. Friday`s condition remains
dependent on this track; if the system reaches the panhandle
Thursday morning that could mean Friday would be more dry, vs if
Thursday is clear Friday could receive the precip instead. Stay
tuned for further updates as we go through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Two aviation stories remain this morning with the
northern panhandle experiencing VFR conditions with partly cloudy to
clear skies, and the southern panhandle with remaining MVFR to LIFR
conditions with ceilings below 2500 ft and visibilities between 3 to
5 SM. The worst conditions are currently near Petersburg with
visibilities dropping as low as 1SM early this morning. Similar
conditions will remain this morning into this afternoon as the low
remains in the gulf and high pressure slowly builds in its place. As
high pressure builds, northerly flow over the southern panhandle
will allow for improving conditions Sunday evening into Sunday
night.

Along with a developing ridge, increasing dry air aloft, near 700 to
850 mb, will help to improve ceilings for the entire panhandle. With
clearing skies, winds in Skagway will increase in the afternoon, to
15 to 20 kts, due to a sea breeze. These winds will decrease again
during the evening hours.

At the end of the TAF period, early Monday morning, the development
of a marine layer and fog are possible as clearing skies and weak
winds persist. This can reduce both ceilings and visibilities to IFR
conditions during the morning hours.

&&

.MARINE...Inside waters: Low wind conditions across the inside
waters this morning with most areas reporting 15 kt or less of
wind. Areas north of Sumner Strait are reporting wind directions
out of the N, while the southern panhandle still has southerly
wind though. Winds are expected to switch to a north or west wind
direction by tonight and will remain mostly 15 kt or less through
Tuesday at least, though some sea breeze circulations could
produce some locally higher winds in the afternoons and early
evenings. Low clouds and fog may plague various areas over the
next few nights especially in the central and southern panhandle
tonight (radiational fog and low cloud formation) and near the
outer coast for the next few nights (marine layer clouds and fog
advecting inland from the outer coast).

Outside waters: Fairly quiet conditions as a ridge of high
pressure will be building over the gulf waters over the next few
days. Once the low near Baranof Island dissipates today
predominate wind directions will be from the NW and W with speeds
of 15 kt or less through Monday. Some increase in NW winds in the
SE gulf is expected on Tuesday into Wednesday with 20 to possibly
25 kt winds expected off of Prince of Wales Island at that time.
Seas are low with combined seas of 6 ft or less with low (3 ft SW
swell at 9 sec) or no swell expected through Tuesday. Fog or low
clouds are likely across a large part of the gulf tonight into mid
week as marine layer clouds develop.


&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EAL
LONG TERM....ZTK
AVIATION...EAB
MARINE...EAL

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