869
FXAK67 PAJK 082319
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
319 PM AKDT Wed May 8 2024

.SHORT TERM.../Through Thursday night/ Active weather across the
panhandle overnight and today. Gusty winds were observed over a
wide area as a front moved through last night and post frontal
southerlies are still kicking up gusty winds for the northern
inner channels this afternoon. These winds should diminish through
the evening hours. In addition there was some rainfall with
anywhere from half an inch to 1.5 inches overnight in most areas
of the panhandle.

Focus in the short range now shifts to the next system that will
be coming in late tonight and lingering through Thursday. The main
change with this system is that the track of it is now farther
east then what was previously depicted (Low center is aimed more
at Yakutat now). Heaviest rainfall is now aimed mostly E of
Yakutat with Cape Fairweather and the northern inner channels
under the gun. This system is still looking rather wet with a
moderate atmospheric river embedded in it. It also is moving east
rather quickly so that will limit rainfall amounts received.
Probabilities of precip are favoring totals around 1 to 2 inches
for many areas of the north with some isolated areas of 3 inches
in low elevation areas. These are still record or near record
daily amounts for this time of year. Area rivers are expected to
show rises but will remain in there banks as they are still
somewhat low from last month`s dry spell and snow levels are down
to 3000 ft across the north right now.


Likewise the winds have also shifted east with more of the inner
channels (from Sumner Strait northward) now expected to see breezy
to windy conditions on Thursday. Gusts to 40 or 45 mph are likely
in some northern and central inner channel locations Thursday
before the winds start to slacken by late Thu night as the system
moves east and falls apart.

.LONG TERM...The start of the long term will remain wet as the remnants
of the heavy rain from Thursday will continue to impact the
panhandle before exiting. High pressure will briefly move through
the gulf bringing an end to rain for most locations. With the rain
moving out, we will see some drying across the area although
there is the chance for some isolated showers during the day on
Saturday. Temperatures during this time look to be the warmest on
Saturday as we see the least amount of clouds over the area during
this time. Clouds and chances of rain start to increase across
the panhandle Saturday night into Sunday as the area of high
pressure that transited through the area exits the region and
another low starts to move in from the west. This system will
bring more increased winds and rain to the panhandle just in time
for the start of next week. As we head into the Monday and
Tuesday, the wet weather looks to remain around the area allowing
for a continued unsettled pattern. With the unsettled and active
weather, temperatures look to remain cooler than normal for the
mid to long range.

&&

.AVIATION...Conditions deteriorate once more through the evening
overnight time frame as a strong system moves into the panhandle,
with widespread IFR conditions expected for much of the panhandle
especially the northern half. LLWS is anticipated, alongside
strong winds and heavy rain near the surface. Conditions will
begin improving by late Thursday, with clearing skies through the
latter half of Friday.

&&

.MARINE...Significant changes for winds for Thursday for the inner
channels from Sumner Strait northward. The track of the incoming
system has now shifted farther E then previously depicted which is
bringing higher winds of 25 to 30 kt southerlies for many inner
channel areas. Winds after diminishing this evening from todays
winds, will pick up again late tonight with the highest winds
expected during the day Thursday. Expect a diminishing trend into
Thursday night as the system moves east and weakens. The Gulf
waters have some changes as well with the highest winds (up to min
gale) and seas (up to 14 ft) on Thursday now east of 140W.
Also like the inner channels, expect a diminishing trend into
Thursday night as the system moves east.


&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind through late tonight for AKZ318.
     Strong Wind Thursday afternoon for AKZ318-319.
     Strong Wind from Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon for
     AKZ323.
     Strong Wind Thursday afternoon for AKZ325.
     Strong Wind from late tonight through Thursday afternoon for
     AKZ327.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ642>644-662>664.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-022-031>036-053-641-651-
     652-661-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MARINE...EAL
LONG TERM....SF
AVIATION...GFS

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