Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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208
FXUS61 KAKQ 170831
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
331 AM EST Tue Jan 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure slides offshore as a weak warm front lifts north
into the area later today. Low pressure tracks east from the
Great Lakes to New England today into tonight, with its
associated cold front pushing off the Mid Atlantic coast
Wednesday morning. High pressure then builds over the area on
Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Latest sfc analysis shows 1009 mb low pres over the Midwest with
1026 mb high pres near the Mid Atlc coast and a weak warm front
south of the fa. Aloft, a strong mid-level shortwave trough is
also located over the Midwest with weak ridging along the
eastern seaboard. The sfc high pushes offshore today as any weak
resemblance of the warm front slides north into the area while
southerly flow increases. Rain is likely today especially over
northern areas due to WAA and weak perturbations in the flow
aloft moving into a moist airmass. With forcing fairly marginal,
rain amounts up to only a tenth of an inch are expected over most
areas during the daytime period. Patchy fog is psbl as well
this morning but not likely with primarily low stratus
anticipated. Skies remain cloudy for the duration of the day
with southerly sfc winds increasing to 10-15 mph late. High
temps range from the lwr 50s Lwr Eastern Shore to the mid/upr
50s elsewhere, but cannot rule out some lwr 60s over southern
areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Expect somewhat of a lull in precip early this evening, then
POPS ramp back up as a cold front approaches the region from the
W tonight. Strong shortwave passes by from 09-15Z/Wed. Best
lift and moisture convergence looks to reside over the eastern
shore this evening, then with a line of showers pushing S
overnight into wed morning. Will carry 30-50% POPS well inland,
with likely POPS/60% closer to the coast. Cold Front passes
through Wed...and with deeper mixing and WNW flow in low
levels...should see skies turn partly to mostly sunny late
along with a warm day with highs at least in the mid 60s.
Showers will be most likely across the E and SE where drier air
is slower to arrive. Dry/mostly clear Wed night and Thu as sfc
high pressure settles over the area. Lows Wed night in the
mid/upr 30s inland to the lwr 40s far SE. Highs in the 50s Thu.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A series of low pressure systems will lift northeast from the
Southern Plains during the long term period. This pattern will keep
temperatures above normal for the long term along with a few rounds
of precipitation. The timing of the precipitation has been moved a
little earlier than the previous forecast.

The first system will move through in the form of an upper level
short wave Friday with likely POPs except 50 percent POPs for the
northeast North Carolina counties. The precipitation ends from
southwest to northeast late Friday and Friday evening. The next
system will be stronger with a cutoff upper over the Mississippi
Valley and associated deep surface low and frontal boundaries
extending across the Mid Atlantic States.  There is a good chance
for showers in the Mid Atlantic States by Sunday afternoon which
continue into Monday. Kept POPs no higher than 40 to 50 percent due
to a lack of confidence on days 6 and 7.

Max temperatures in the 50s Friday through Sunday warm to the lower
60s west of the Bay Monday. Lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s Friday
morning warm into the 40s Saturday through Monday mornings.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mainly MVFR conditions to start off the 06Z TAF period as low
stratus is commonplace across the Mid Atlc. Could see some
occasional IFR cigs this morning, especially at KRIC, which has
been accounted for in the TAF as a TEMPO group. Otherwise mainly
MVFR/IFR conditions expected for the duration of the TAF period
as a warm front lifts north through the area later today, with
winds under 10 kt and a good chance of rain especially at
KRIC/KSBY. The initial band of rain is expected to move
offshore this evening, with the potential for rain moving into
SE VA/NE NC tonight into Wednesday morning ahead of an
approaching cold front. Drier conditions arrive Wednesday aftn
in the wake of the cold front followed by high pressure
Thursday. Another low pressure system potentially impacts the
region Friday, before dry conditions return Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure slides offshore by daybreak as a warm front lifts nwd
through the aftn, which will spread light rain across the area
(especially north of New Point Comfort and Parramore Island). Winds
generally s aob 10kt this morning will become more breezy 10-15kt
this afternoon during a brief surge in winds. Mainly as a cold front
approaches the waters, the pressure gradient tightens, and rainfall
slowly tapers off within the warm sector. Rainfall continues to
taper off during the first half of the evening but will become more
widespread late this evening and overnight as a cold front crosses
the waters...exiting the NE NC coast by mid-late morning. Winds
become more sw but will remain aob 15kt overnight; gusts up to 20kt
coastal waters. Seas 2ft today...increasing to 2-3ft tonight. Waves
1-2ft.

The arrival of the cooler post-frontal air on Wednesday will likely
result in a more uniform increase in nw winds rather than a typical
surge. Speeds still generally aob 15kt with gusts around 20kt on
coastal waters. Sfc high pressure builds in from the west Wed night
and n winds will gradually diminish to 10kt or less by Thu morning.
High pressure resides over the waters through Thu night with light
and variable winds anticipated Thu aftn through Thu night. Seas
2-3ft. Waves 1-2ft.

Sfc high gets pushed offshore Fri morning by an upper low expected
to get stretched across the Ohio Valley into the Mid Atlantic
Region. A sfc low is anticipated to develop along a warm frontal
boundary associated with this feature and then develop into a
coastal low off the far SE VA/NE NC coast Fri night. The coastal low
pushes well offshore by Sat with weak high pressure building in
behind it during the day. Seas build to 2-4ft late Thu night due to
nly swell from the slowly departing Wed system (despite being far
enough offshore to have no other impacts on marine forecast). The
2-4ft seas persist into Sat. Waves continue at 1-2ft through Sat.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAS
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...BMD



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