Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 211622
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1122 AM EST Sun Jan 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains centered over the southeast states today
into Monday. A cold front crosses the region Tuesday morning
and moves well off the coast by Tuesday night. High pressure
becomes centered over the south central states Wednesday and
builds east into Thursday.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Latest analysis indicates a weak upper level trough along the SE
coast with a lot of clouds over the Gulf Stream from off FL to
SE NC. Over the local area, weak sfc high pressure remains in
control with mainly sunny skies as of 11 am, the exception being
the MD eastern shore where BKN/OVC clouds from the N have moved
in as a weak front over the NE CONUS brushes by this region.
Temperatures have warmed rapidly and are now mainly in the
mid/upper 50s except in the upper 40s/lower 50s eastern shore
and near the immediate coast. With fairly light winds today,
expect areas of SE-E VA/NE NC near the coast to develop an
onshore flow this aftn and this will keep temps from rising
much from current readings (in some cases temps may drop a few
degrees). Light SSW winds inland will allow for highs into the
lower-mid 60s across most of interior NE NC and southern/central
VA, while highs will avg in the 50s near the coast and for the
eastern shore. Some clouds will spread in from the west later
this aftn but probably not until after 2 to 3 pm for most of the
CWA (eastern shore will avg out partly- mostly cloudy). For
tonight, skies will avg partly-mostly cloudy N to partly cloudy-
mostly clear S. Not as cold, with lows mainly from 35-40 F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Sfc high pres remains off the E coast through Mon while lo pres
tracks from the central plains to the wrn lakes. SSW flow will
keep mild wx over the region w/ partly cloudy conditions.
Highs Mon 55-60F near the bay/ocean and on the ern shore to
60-65F for most other locations.

Rain chances increase quickly after midnight Mon night through
Tue morning as lo pres tracks through the lakes region...pushing
its associated cold front across the local area. Models now in
general agreement wrt timing that front through the FA. Keeping
CHC to likely PoPs for most of the area during 06Z-17Z/23 (Tue)
then pcpn moving out of the entire area by 00Z/24 (Wed). Will
also keep hidden/very lo chance for ISOLD tstms. Lows Mon night
from the u40s-l50s. Highs Tue from 60-65F N and on the ern
shore to the u60s-l70s SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Models are in very good agreement in the extended range from 00z
Wed through Saturday with the long wave trough pulling out of
the Northeastern US Wed and Thursday with a shortwave ridge
building in for Friday and Saturday. At the surface, the period
begins with NW flow as the surface low over deepens over the
nern US. The surface low will lift NE into the Canadian
Maritimes by Wed evening. With the NW flow, expect the clouds
to clear Tues night into Wednesday but with the cold advection,
temperatures will be cooler into the upper 40s to lower 50s.
Another shortwave will move through the eastern trough on
Tuesday and will bring a reinforcing cold front to the area.
This may knock temperatures down a couple more degrees on
Thursday, but with little moisture expect to see just a few
clouds across the northern portion of the CWA.

High pressure will build into the area on Thursday night into
Friday. The high will remain in place through Saturday before
slowly sliding off the coast by late Saturday with SW flow
returning. This will allow for good radiation cooling both Thurs
and Fri night with temps in the u 20s to l30s Thurs night and
low to mid 30s Friday night. For Friday should see lots of sun
with highs around the mid 40s over Lower MD and m50s in
southern VA. On Saturday with the return flow the models are
indicating return moisture getting in and some showers possible
late day, but at this point, not ready to introduce pops so have
gone with just slight chance values in the 15 to 20% range.
High should continue to modify into the 50s to around 60F.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions will continue through the 12Z TAF period as sfc
hi pres continues to dominate. Winds will be VRB-SSW aob 10 kt.
Sfc hi pres settles off the SE coast through Mon w/ mainly and dry
conditions continuing. The next chance for widespread
precipitation and flight restrictions comes late Mon night into
Tue night with a passing cold front. High pres returns later
Tue.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure, centered over and just off the Southeast US coast,
will remain in control of the weather thru Monday with winds 10 kt
or less and generally benign boating conditions. By Monday night,
winds will begin to increase again out of the south as a deepening
low over the Great Lakes pushes its associated cold front toward the
region. Wind will increase to 15 to 25 kt from the S-SW prior to
daybreak Tues, continuing thru midday, with seas on the coastal
waters building to 4-6 FT; waves 3-4 ft on the Bay. SCAs will likely
be needed. Once the front clears the area Tues afternoon, winds will
shift to the west 10-15 kt Tues night/Wed and then northwest on
Thursday. Waves/seas subside to 1-3 ft.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/MAM
LONG TERM...ESS
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ESS



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