Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 260809
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
409 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE REBUILDING OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. THE HIGH GRADUALLY SLIDES OFF THE COAST MONDAY...AND
BECOMES CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN
QUEBEC/NORTHERN MAINE, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT DRAPED
FROM THE NORTHEAST BACK INTO THE LOWER OH VLY CROSSING THE MTNS
EARLY THIS MORNING. LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO NW
EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, AS
THE TRAILING SFC FRONT SETTLES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS BY THIS AFTN.
WELL MIXED AIRMASS AND A COMPRESSED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAKE
FOR A BREEZY DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH WINDS AVERAGING 15-25 MPH
ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE/COASTAL AREAS...W/LIGHTER WINDS 10-15 MPH
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 MPH WEST OF THE BAY. DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
DRIER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO DROP INTO
THE 30S THIS AFTERNOON (SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW).
OTHERWISE, A VERY PLEASANT, MILD FALL DAY EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY, BEFORE IT
SHIFTS OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. CLEAR SKY, LIGHT WINDS
AND A DRY AIRMASS SHOULD MAKE FOR ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT THIS
EVENING...WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS MONDAY IN THE U30S TO NEAR 40
INLAND...LOW TO MID 40S ALONG THE COAST TO NEAR 50 AT THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. CONTINUED DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. H85 TEMPS IN THE 13-15C RANGE YIELD HIGHS U60S-L70S
MON.

RETURN FLOW SETS UP MONDAY NIGHT AND TUES RESULTING IN A WARMING
TREND. TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD FOR
MOST OF THE LOCAL AREA, AS H85 TEMPS WILL CLIMB TO NEAR 15-17C.
BREEZY WAA (SOUTHWEST FLOW) MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, IN TANDEM
WITH A MAINLY SUNNY SKY, SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S
INLAND...MID TO UPPER 70S EASTERN SHORE AND ALONG THE COAST.
CONTINUED RELATIVELY MILD TUESDAY NIGHT GIVEN INCREASING CLOUD
COVER WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
PREFRONTAL WAA WILL ALSO ASSIST IN KEEPING TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO
FAR. EARLY MORNING LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

CONTINUED TO LAG TOWARD THE SLOW SIDE WITH ONSET OF POPS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY. AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW, DEEPENING LOW
AND BEST DYNAMICS ORIENTED WELL OFF TO OUR NORTH- NORTHEAST ALL
POINT IN THAT DIRECTION...AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF
WITH RAIN CHCS WED MORNING. HAVE CONTINUED WITH A LOW CHC 30-40%
POP ON WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. GIVEN ANTECEDENT DRY AIRMASS AND
MOISTURE STARVED FRONT...QPF WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW WITH THE
MIDWEEK FRONTAL PASSAGE, ON THE ORDER OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY INTO THE U60S-L70S IN THE PIEDMONT, WITH A LATER
FRONTAL PASSAGE BRINGING MILDER TEMPERATURES (75-800 ALONG THE SE
COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FORECAST ESPECIALLY TOWARD NEXT
WEEKEND. INITIAL FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES OF TIMING ON THE FRONT. HAVE CHANCE POPS OF SHOWERS WITH
THIS FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH. THEN BEGINNING FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
THE MODELS DIVERGE. HAVE THE ECMWF DEVELOPING A DEEP CUTOFF LOW OVER
THE SOUTHEAST US WHILE THE GFS HAS THE CUTOFF DEVELOPING MORE TOWARD
NEW ENGLAND WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. THE ECMWF IS TOWARD THE
DEEPEST ENSEMBLE SOLUTION. HOWEVER THE OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN IS
SUCH THAT IT COULD SUPPORT THE CUTOFF OVER SOUTHEASTERN US. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH HOW FUTURE MODEL RUNS DEVELOP. EITHER WAY STARTING
ON THURSDAY COLDER AIR BEGINS TO ARRIVE AND WE HAVE THE COLDEST
AIR THIS FALL ACROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY. THIS DROPS HIGHS INTO
THE 50S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN WESTERN
SECTIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH WEST WINDS
VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST AND BECOMING BREEZY BY MID MORNING. GUSTS
WILL AVERAGE 15-20KT INLAND WITH HIGHER GUSTS OF 25-30KT ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND MD/VA LOWER EASTERN SHORE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF THE
COAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
DRY/VFR WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTH AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 15KT DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO DEVELOP WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS
WEDNESDAY PROGRESSES. PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED TO BE VERY LIGHT
AND SHOWERY AS THE FRONT GETS PULLED APART BY THE TIME IT TRAVERSES
THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO ONGOING FORECAST. SCA FLAGS FOR CHES BAY
AND COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO THE VA/NC BORDER ARE NOW
IN EFFECT. A WEAK TROUGH IS CURRENTLY PRESENT OVER THE WATERS WITH
WEST WINDS AVERAGING 10-15KT. THE DRY COLD FRONT IS POISED TO CROSS
THE WATERS SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK...THEN WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NW
AND BECOME BREEZY WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15KT RIVERS/SOUND...15-20KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25KT CHES BAY...15-25KT WITH GUSTS TO 30KT COASTAL WATERS
FENWICK ISLAND TO VA/NC BORDER. SEAS ARE 2-4FT BUT WILL BUILD TO
3-5FT ONCE THE STRONGER NW WINDS DEVELOP. WAVES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
BUILD TO 3-4FT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR NRN COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO
PARRAMORE ISLAND WHERE SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO DROP BELOW 5FT UNTIL
THIS EVENING. BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...NW WINDS WILL BE AOB 15KT AND
DIMINISHING INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS.
THE HIGH SLIDES EWD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY. A NOCTURNAL
SUB-SCA SURGE IN WINDS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EACH NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY AND SW WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY NORTHERLY WINDS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS
WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS JUST NORTH OF THE DELMARVA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTR COORD WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES / STATE AGENCIES...WILL NOT ISSUE
ANY FIRE DANGER STATEMENTS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS MORNING.
HAVE CONTINUED TO HIGHLIGHT THE GUSTY WINDS & RH`S 25 TO 30%
ACROSS THE ERN SHORE IN THE FWF. RH`S OVER THE PIEDMONT WILL DROP
TO 20-25% LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT WINDS TO
DIMINISH INLAND THIS AFTN.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ632-634-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ630-
     631.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD
FIRE WEATHER...











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