Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 140549
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1249 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN
MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY...TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE COVERING MUCH OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY REGION THIS EVENING WITH A SFC TROUGH OVER THE NE
STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND. COLD NIGHT UNDERWAY ACRS THE REGION WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUING ACRS NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA (THOUGH
WINDS ARE DIMINISHING TO SOME EXTENT). CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL FOR ALL
ZONES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ERN SHORE WHERE SCT/BKN CU PERSIST
DUE TO COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE BAY. TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY IN
THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S RESULTING IN WIND CHILLS RAGING FROM
5 TO 15 ABOVE ZERO FOR MOST.

MADE ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...SOME LINGERING
CLDS ACRS THE ERN SHORE THROUGH 06Z...OTRW SKC OVERNIGHT. SFC HI
PRES CONTS TO BUILD INTO THE RGN FM THE WNW. WINDS QUICKER TO
DIMINISH INLAND THAN AT THE CST. LO TEMPS MNLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO MID/UPR TEENS. WIND CHILL ADSY RMNG IN PLACE FOR NRN
NECK VA TO THE ERN SHORE FOR WIND CHILLS FALLING TO ZERO TO ARND 5
BLO ZERO. LOWEST WIND CHILLS ELSEWHERE TO FALL TO 0 TO 5 ABOVE
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NR 1035MB ARCTIC HI PRES TO BE OVR THE RGN SUN. WNDS WILL BE
LIGHTER THAN TDA. STARTING OUT VERY COLD. NEXT LO PRES SYS WILL BE
TRACKING SE THROUGH THE MIDWEST SUN...SPREADING AT LEAST HI LVL
MOISTURE TO THE MTNS (AND PTNTLLY THIS FAR E) DURING THE AFTN/EVE.
DESPITE MNLY SUNNY CONDS...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE ABV THE
L-M20S NR THE CST AND M-U20S INLAND.

SFC HI PRES SHIFTS OFF THE CST AND TWD NEW ENG SUN NGT. NEXT SYS
FM THE WNW PUSHES MOISTURE OVR THE MTNS...REACHING AT LEAST CNTRL
PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA AFT MDNGT. THERMAL PROFILES COLD ENOUGH
FOR PTYPE AS SN MOST PLACES IN FA THROUGH EARLY-MID MRNG MON.
MDLS (GFS LESS AGGRESSIVE/SLOWER THAN THE NAM) SHOWING WARM AIR
PUSH NWD ABV THE SFC LYR BEGINNING FM 12-18Z/15...INITIALLY ACRS
NE NC-FAR SRN VA...THEN POINTS N BY LT MON AFTN/MON EVE. GIVEN
HOW COLD THE AIR IS INITIALLY...AND SN RATIOS UPWARDS OF
15:1...XPCG A GENERAL 1-4" SN ACCUM ACRS CNTRL/INTERIOR SRN VA...A
TRACE-1" PSBL ALL THE WAY TO THE CST...W/ PSBL EXCEPTION ACRS CSTL
NE NC. TRANSITION OF SN TO (A SHORT PD OF?) IP...THEN ZR/RA IS
DIFFICULT TO TIME (FOR ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION) ATTM...ESP ALG-W
OF I 95 WHERE THE SHALLOW COLD AIR WILL RMN STUBBORN AND TOUGH TO
DISLODGE QUICKLY. KEEPING TEMPS AOB 32F FOR MOST OF THE PIEDMONT
IN CNTRL VA THROUGH 00-03Z/16. TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO A
TENTH OR TWO PSBL W OF I 95...GREATEST ALG-W OF A FVX-LKU LINE.
RA...PSBLY MDT-HVY...XPCD TO EVENTUALLY WIN OUT OVR MOST OF THE
AREA MON AFTN THROUGH MON EVE...THEN CONT INTO TUE MRNG. THERE
COULD BE A FEW LINGERING POCKETS OF ZR ACRS PORTIONS OF
LOUISA/FLUVANNA COUNTIES INTO THE OVRNGT HRS MON NGT. LO TEMPS SUN
NGT FM THE MID- UPR TEENS TO L20S...THOUGH TENDING TO SLOLY RISE
LATE. HI TEMPS XPCD LT IN THE DAY MON...RANGING FM THE L30S NW OF
RIC TO ARND 50F IN SE VA/NE NC. TEMPS MON NGT STEADY OR RISING.

WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS OF CNTRL/SCNTRL VA
DUE TO COMBO OF SN/ICE ACCUMS RESULTING IN A PSBL HIGH IMPACT
EVENT. THE MRNG COMMUTE ACRS MANY AREAS LOOK TO BE IMPACTED DUE
TO SN...THOUGH ATTM APRS HIGHEST PROB FOR THAT WOULD BE ACRS
CNTRL/INTERIOR SRN VA-FAR INTERIOR NE NC.

BY TUE AFTN...PCPN XPCD TO QUICKLY EXIT AND AT LEAST PARTIAL CLRG
FCST TO OCCUR. HI TEMPS TUE FM THE ARND 50F WELL INLAND TO ARND
60S IN SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CLIP THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
COUNTIES. DRY AND MILD WEDNESDAY UNDER WNW FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. A COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD
PUSH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL...BUT WITHIN -1 ST DEV. A MODERATING
TREND COMMENCES LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY FOR A CHANCE OF
RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BREEZY NORTH WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 15-25KT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
MORNING FROM WRN CHES BAY TO THE ATLANTIC COAST WHILE INLAND WINDS
AVERAGE 6KT OR LESS. WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL DIMINISH DURING
THE AFTN AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...CAUSING
THE TIGHTER TEMP/PRESSURE GRADIENT TO BE PUSHED WELL OFFSHORE.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FROM THE SW-W. PLENTY
OF COLD AIR IN PLACE FOR PRECIP TO BEGIN AS ALL SNOW LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING FOR ALL TAF SITES. HOWEVER...A
DEEPENING LOW MOVING IN FROM THE SW IS EXPECTED TO PULL WARMER AIR
INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS CNTRL VA (PRIMARILY IMPACTING KRIC)
AND A CHANGEOVER TO ALL RAIN ACROSS FAR SE VA/NE NC. SFC LOW
TRACKS ACROSS WV AND WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW ALL PRECIP TO
TRANSITION TO MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL MONDAY NIGHT. CIG/VIS
RESTRICTIONS BEGIN AS MVFR SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WILL QUICKLY DROP TO
IFR BY MONDAY MORNING AND ARE ANTICIPATED TO MAINTAIN IFR (AND
POSSIBLY LIFR) CIGS/VIS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AFTN BEFORE
CONDITIONS START TO IMPROVE. A BREAK IN PRECIP AND FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY NIGHT BUT COULD BE
SHORT-LIVED. ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE SKIRTS ACROSS CNTRL VA
TO THE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...LIKELY BRINGING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA AND
POSSIBLY IMPACTING KRIC AND KSBY.

&&

.MARINE...
7 PM UPDATE...LOWERED GALE WARNING IN THE BAY NORTH OF NEW POINT
COMFORT TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. GALE WARNING CONTINUES NORTH OF
PARRAMORE ISLAND IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ELSEWHERE...SCA REMAINS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU SUNDAY MORNING
FOR THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS.

TRENDS IN WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN IN A GENERAL DECLINE OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER BAY AND SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. THEREFORE...HAVE DROPPED THE GALE WARNINGS FOR THESE AREAS
AND REPLACED WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES (SOUTH OF SMITH POINT AND
SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES RESPECTIVELY). WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
INTO THIS EVENING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE BAY AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO
DROP GALE WARNING BY MIDNIGHT. IF SIMILAR TRENDS IN WIND SPEEDS
OCCUR OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT THEN MAY BE ABLE TO
DROP THE GALE WARMING EARLY...HOWEVER OPTED TO LEAVE IT IN PLACE
THRU SUN MORNING FOR NOW AND CAN RE-EVALUATE THIS EVENING. ONCE
GALES COME DOWN...WILL NEED TO REPLACE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.
SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED INTO SUN AFTN. CURRENT SCA`S FOR THE LOWER
BAY/RIVERS/SOUND GO THRU SUN MORN.

WINDS STAY FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT AND EARLY MON FROM THE E-
SE AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS SLIDES OFFSHORE. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW LATE MON NIGHT AND IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK NE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
MODESTLY STRONG SSE WINDS OF 20-25KT TO DEVELOP WITH BUILDING SEAS
TO 5-9FT AND WAVES TO 3-4FT (UP TO 5FT IN THE MOUTH OF CHES BAY).
SCA WINDS ANTICIPATED MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE...WITH SEAS REMAINING
ELEVATED THROUGH AT LEAST LATE WED DUE TO A LESS POTENT SYSTEM
PUSHING ACROSS NRN VA WED MORNING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVELS REMAIN LOW...BUT NO LOW WATER ADVISORY NECESSARY FOR
AKQ WATERS WITH MIN LEVELS GENLY TO AROUND -0.5 FT MLLW AT LOW
TIDE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR VAZ048-060>062-064>069-509>511-513-515.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ075>078-085-099-521-522.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ656-
     658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...JDM/LSA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ


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