Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 050015
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
815 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY JUST OFF THE EAST
COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER AIR LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...AND
TRACKING INTO NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN EVENTUALLY WEAKENS INTO AN UPPER TROUGH AND PUSHES
OFF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO GENERATE ALONG A WEAK
THERMAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NJ ALONG CHES BAY INTO ERN NC. THE
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN PULSING UP IN ERN VA WITH A QUICK BURST OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL...RESULTING IN RAPIDLY ACCUMULATING QPF
AMOUNTS OF 0.25 INCHES OR LESS. A DRY SLOT MOVING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SW WILL KEEP SHOWER CHANCES LOW GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95 THE REST OF THE EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STRAY SHOWER OR TWO GLANCING THE ERN PIEDMONT. NEXT BATCH OF
SHOWERS MOVES INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVING SE FROM THE MIDWEST
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. EXPECT PRIMARILY MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WX WILL CONTINUE ACRS THE FA THU INTO FRI NGT...AS UPR
AIR LO PRES TRACKS SE INTO NC THU AFTN/EVENG...THEN LIFTS NWDACRS
THE REGION THU EVENG THRU FRI EVENG. POPS INCREASE QUICKLY TO CAT
(80%) OR LIKELY (70-60%) OVR WSW COUNTIES BY EARLY THU AFTN...DUE
TO THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED LO LVL MOISTURE AND IMPRESSIVE
LIFT IN ADVANCE OF THE UPR LO. POPS WILL THEN INCREASE TO AT LEAST
40-60% OVR THE ERN/NE HALF OF THE AREA FOR THU EVENG INTO FRI
MORNG...AS THE UPR LO LIFTS NWD FM ERN NC INTO ERN VA. POPS REMAIN
AT 30-60% FRI AFTN INTO FRI EVENG...THEN DECREASE TO 20-30% LATER
FRI NGT THRU SAT...AS THE UPR LO WEAKENS INTO AN UPR TROF AND
EVENTUALLY PUSHES OFF THE CST SAT AFTN. RAINFALL AMTS WILL BE
HIGHEST OVR THE VA PIEDMONT ALNG AND W OF INTERSTATE 95...WITH 1
TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE THRU THE EVENT. HIGHS WILL RANGE FM
THE UPR 50S TO UPR 60S ON THU...FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S
FRI...AND FM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SAT. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN
THE UPR 40S TO LWR 50S THU NGT AND FRI NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW SATURDAY NIGHT AND LOOKS ON
TRACK TO CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. GFS/CMC/ECMWF TIMING IS FAIRLY
SIMILAR...WITH THE FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO NC BY MIDDAY SUN.
MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED WITH THIS BOUNDARY...WITH SO WILL
MAINTAIN THE 20%/SLIGHT CHC POP WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGHS
SUNDAY RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S (AROUND 80 F SOUTH) AFTER
MORNING LOWS IN THE 50S. A MID/UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO GENERALLY DRY AND MILD TO WARM
CONDITIONS. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 70S MONDAY LOOK TO
MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW-MID 80S TUE/WED. WITH A WEAK
SFC BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA AS THIS WARMING TREND OCCURS
COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS ON TUE THOUGH WILL KEEP POPS CAPPED AT
20%. NEXT COLD FRONT SLATED FOR LATE WED/THU...SO HAVE 20-30% CHC
POPS BY WED AFTN (HIGHEST NW).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
THROUGH THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY AND INTO THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
NEAR THE COAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE SLIDING TO THE EAST ON
SUNDAY.

WIDELY SCATTERED BUT DISSIPATING SHOWERS WERE OVER EASTERN VIRGINIA
EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. IFR CONDS WILL BE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. THE
QUESTION THEN COMES AS TO HOW MUCH IMPROVEMENT OCCURS ON THURSDAY.
FOLLOWED CLOSE TO NAM MOS WHICH DID FAIRLY WELL DURING THE LAST 24
HOURS. HAVE CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO HIGH END IFR AT ALL SITES AND TO
LOW END MVFR IN THE AFTN AT RIC PHF AND ECG. ALSO INTRODUCED SHOWERS
THURSDAY AFTN TO ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT SBY.

OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED AND POTENTIALLY IFR CONDS CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT ON SATURDAY. DRY AND VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
RELATIVELY WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
OVER ERN CANADA...AND SFC LOW ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. THE SFC
LOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFF THE NC COAST AND MOVE NE ALONG THE
GULF STREAM THU...WITH A SECONDARY LOW HANGING BACK OVER VA/NC
THROUGH FRI (THIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL PARK
ITSELF OVER THE REGION). RAISING SCA HEADLINES ACRS THE NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS PER LATEST OBS/TRENDS. GENLY A MARGINAL EVENT BUT
THE PROLONGED NE FLOW OF 15-20KT OVER THE NRN COASTAL WATERS
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN 5 FT SEAS THROUGH AT LEAST THU NIGHT
(POSSIBLY CONTINUING FRI). ELSEWHERE ACRS THE MARINE AREA...WINDS
ARE CURRENTLY FROM THE NE AND ARE SLOWLY INCREASING BUT SPEEDS
GENLY LOOK TO STAY AT OR BELOW 15 KT THROUGH THE NEXT 2 DAYS. SOME
OF THE HIGH RES MODEL DATA SHOWS THERE COULD BE SOME MARGINAL
GUSTS TO 20 KT ON THU INTO THE BAY BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY SCA
ISSUANCES THERE FOR NOW. WAVES IN THE BAY SHOULD AVG 1-2 FT
TONIGHT AND 2-3 FT THU/THU NIGHT. SEAS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
SOUTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND WILL AVG 3-4 FT. PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS AGAIN FRI/FRI NIGHT AND WIND DIRECTIONS MAY BE SOMEWHAT
CHAOTIC DEPENDING ON EXACT LOCATION OF THE SFC LOW (SPEEDS MAINLY
5-10 KT). THIS SECOND LOW THEN MOVES OFFSHORE SAT/SAT NIGHT WITH A
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE WATERS ON SUNDAY. NOT MUCH COLD AIR BEHIND
THIS FRONT SO DOUBT SCA CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITH SEAS TO AVG
2-4 FT AND 1-2 FT WAVES IN THE BAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RISING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ALONG WITH CONTINUED NE FLOW IS LEADING
TO TIDAL DEPARTURES CURRENTLY AVERAGING AROUND 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL.
APPEARS MOST AREAS WILL FALL JUST SHY OF MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLDS
WITH THE UPCOMING EVENING HIGH TIDE BUT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT
AT LEAST A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY OVER
MUCH OF THE LOWER BAY/SRN COASTAL WATERS. ANOMALIES ARE LIKELY TO
INCREASE A BIT THU...AND WILL PROBABLY NEED A CSTL FLOOD ADSY BY
THU EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...BMD/TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LKB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



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