Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 192001 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 401 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES EASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND OFF THE COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... LO PRES WILL CONT TO SWIRL JUST OFF THE GA/SC CST THROUGH TNGT WHILE HI PRES SETTLES SE INTO NEW ENG. AS XPCD...RA CONTG TO DIMINISH ACRS SRN VA...HRR HANGS ONTO SCT -RA FM EXTREME SE VA TO CSTL NE NC THROUGH THIS EVE. WILL CONT TO KEEP LO POPS ACRS PORTIONS OF NE NC THROUGH THE REST OF THE NGT. OTRW...DRYING FM THE N WILL LEAD TO CLEARING N-S (TO NR THE VA-NC BORDER)...THOUGH BKN CI MAY LINGER. NE WNDS WILL RMN GUSTY (TO ABT 25 KT) NR THE CST...ESP S. LO TEMPS FM THE L40S INLAND AND ON PARTS OF THE ERN SHORE...TO THE M/U40S IN CSTL SE VA/NE NC. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... LO PRES WILL CONT TO BE SLO TO MOVE E OF THE SE CST INTO MON. COMBO OF THAT LO AND SFC HI PRES E OF NEW ENG WILL BE CONTD LO LVL FLO FM THE NE. SGFNT AMT OF CLDNS XPCD TO RMN OVR MNLY CSTL SE VA-NE NC THROUGH SUN...WHILE ELSW AVGS P/MSNY. ONSHORE WNDS WILL RMN GUSTY (TO 25-30 KT) NR/AT THE CST. HI TEMPS SUN RANGING FM 55 TO 60 AT THE CST...TO 65 TO 70F INLAND/PIEDMONT. UPR LVL RDG BUILDS OVR THE RGN SUN NGT THROUGH MON W/ LO PRES CONTG TO MOVE OUT TO SEA. IMPROVING CONDS XPCD OVR CSTL NE NC (ALBEIT SLOLY)...W/ CLR-PCLDY WX ELSW. CDFNT TRACKING INTO THE OH VLY MON AFTN...CONTS TO THE E (AND OVR THE MTNS TUE MRNG). THAT FNT BRINGS INCRSG CLDNS FM W-E TUE...ALG W/ NEXT CHC AT RA. MOST OF IF NOT ALL PCPN MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTN W...AND EVE E ON TUE. CONTG W/ SLGT CHC TSTM...THOUGH DYNAMICS WEAKENING W/ TIME AS FNT ENTERS THE RGN. LO TEMPS MON NGT FM THE M40S TO ARND 50. HI TEMPS TUE RANGING FM 75 TO 80F INLAND...TO THE U60S TO L70S AT THE CST. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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NEAR SEASONABLE NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TROUGH AXIS WILL ALIGN ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUES NIGHT- WED MORNING. ADDITIONAL ENERGY WILL DIVE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH (AIDED BY 110+ KT JET STREAK) WEDS AFTERNOON...LIKELY ONLY RESULTING IN MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS. SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE ERN SHORE. TROUGH WILL EXIT THE COAST WEDS AFTERNOON AS DIFFLUENCE ALOFT USHERS IN SFC HIGH PRESSURE. FLOW WILL AMPLIFY AS A WRN CONUS TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD INTO THE PLAINS THURS. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE OH VALLEY THURS NIGHT-FRI MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE REGION THURS...LOCATING OFF THE SE COAST THURS NIGHT-FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT OVER THE REGION THURS NIGHT INTO FRI...AS THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE LOCAL AREA LATE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. SPATIAL AND TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST WRT FRONTAL TIMING...AS WELL AS THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER FLOW...SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM. AS A RESULT...PREDICTABILITY IS RATHER LOW SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT. NEAR SEASONABLE DAYTIME TEMPS WEDS AND THURS BEHIND THE FRONT IN PART TO NWLY FLOW. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70. WARMER FRI AND SAT WITH SW-W FLOW...HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... CURRENTLY NOTING MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SE COASTAL SITES, WITH SOME LCL IFR IMPACTING ECG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO/FL PANHANDLE THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ENE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTO THE ATLANTIC TROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE PERSIST OVER THE FA THROUGH SAT. SWATH OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS FALLING FROM A 6-8KFT DECK, SO EXPECT A BRIEF IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS AT PHF/ORF IN -RA OR SPRINKLES. VCSH F0R A FEW MORE HRS, WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHRAS REACHING TAF SITES AFTER 08Z SAT. NORTHERN TERMINALS LOOK TO BE TOO FAR NORTH TO SEE ANY PRECIP, BUT DID BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHRAS TO RIC BETWEEN 10-15Z BEFORE DRYING OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE THE NW, HELPING TO DRY OUT THE AIRMASS AND ELIMINATE ANY PRECIP CHANCES THIS AFTN/EVENING. HOWEVER, EXPECT MVFR CONDS TO PERSIST AT ORF/ECG THROUGH THIS EVENING. OUTLOOK: NE FLOW CONTINUES SAT NGT THOUGH MON AS HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA MOVES E AND WEDGES SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH VFR CONDS RETURNING WED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. && .MARINE...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA...RIDGING SWD OVER CNTRL VA. MEANWHILE...SFC LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE SE COAST. THE RESULT IS ONGOING NE FLOW OVER THE WATERS. SEAS HAVE DROPPED OFF SLIGHTLY OVER THE NRN WATERS...RIGHT AROUND 5 FT...BUT SCA CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. COASTAL LOW WILL DRIFT SLIGHTLY NEWD TONIGHT...STRENGTHENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. THE RESULT WILL BE SLIGHTLY INCREASING NELY WINDS OVER THE WATERS TO 15 TO 25 KT. AS A RESULT...SCA HEADLINES HAVE BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE NRN BAY ZONES. HOWEVER...ONLY MARGINAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED THE YORK AND RAPPAHANNOCK RIVER...BUT GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE RIVERS. SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU SUN AND INTO SUN NIGHT. INCREASING/PERSISTENT NELY WINDS SUN-SUN NIGHT WILL BUILD SEAS TO 6-9 FT...UP TO 10 FT IN THE SRN COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE NE COAST SUN NIGHT-MON AS THE COASTAL LOW LIFTS FARTHER NE. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NLY AND DIMINISH AS A RESULT. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO FINALLY BEGIN TO SUBSIDE...BUT REMAIN 4-7 FT THRU THE DAY MON. SCA HEADLINES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THRU MON (FOURTH PERIOD) AS A RESULT. FLOW BACKS AROUND TO THE SOUTH TUES IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE REGION TUES AFTERNOON- EVENING. SEAS WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW 5 FT MON NIGHT-TUES WITH SPEEDS FALLING AOB 15 KT. HOWEVER...SCA CONDITIONS AGAIN APPEAR POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT TUES NIGHT-WEDS.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ632>634-638. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ630-631. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654- 656-658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG NEAR TERM...ALB/TMG SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG LONG TERM...SAM AVIATION...MAM/JEF MARINE...SAM

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