Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 292023 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 423 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTH CAROLINA WILL SLIDE NORTH AND DISSIPATE ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE STAYS LOCKED IN PLACE JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE MID ATLANTIC. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... STATIONARY FRONTAL BNDRY REMAINS IN PLACE THIS EVENG OVER NC WITH AN AREA OF LO-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLED NEAR THE FRONT LEADING TO A MSTLY CLOUDY SKY OVER SRN AREAS...MSTLY SUNNY TO THE N. ALOFT...AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS SITUATED ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY CHANCE FOR RAIN THIS EVENG DUE TO A LACK OF FORCING. WITH A BIT MORE FORCING AND MOISTURE LATE OVRNGT DID INTRODUCE A SLGT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER. PARTLY TO MSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED WITH LGT ONSHORE FLOW N OF THE FRONT. LO TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 60S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... AFOREMENTIONED SFC FRONT SLIDES N AND WEAKENS IN THE PROCESS SAT MORNG...WITH A SLGT CHANCE OF A SHRA/TSTM THRU THE DAY. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN FRI AS HI PRES STRENGTHENS OFFSHORE AND SLY FLOW DEVELOPS. TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPR 80S IN MOST AREAS...LWR 80S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE. FOR SUN AND MON...UPR-LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS OUT BUT WITH SFC HI PRES REMAINING OFFSHORE AND PERSISTENT SLY FLOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC...TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S BOTH DAYS...WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. AS FOR PRECIP...BEST CHANCE (40-50%) FOR AFTN/EVENG RAIN WILL BE OVER WRN AREAS BOTH DAYS...WITH LESS OF A CHANCE ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE FA. THE RAIN WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH TRANSIENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROFS AND DEVELOPING SFC LEE TROFS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HI ENUF ATTM TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS ANYTIME DURING THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED ALONG/OFF THE SE US COAST...GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO THE WSW AND BECOMES ANCHORED FROM THE GULF COAST TO TN VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN ABOUT 5-10 F ABOVE AVG TUE BEFORE FALLING A FEW DEGREES WED-FRI (ALTHOUGH READINGS WILL REMAIN A LITTLE ABOVE AVG THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK). AFTER A FAIRLY HIGH CHC FOR SCATTERED TSTMS MON EVENING (~40%)...TUE SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING WAVE AND A COLD FRONT THAT IS SLOW TO APPROACH FROM THE NW. MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS GENLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. WILL CARRY A 20-30% CHC FOR TUE EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA AND HEIGHTS ALOFT DROP AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN. DID NOT GO ANY HIGHER HOWEVER...AS FRONT LOOKS TO BE WEAKENING AT THIS TIME AND BEST LIFT/FORCING REMAIN N/W OF THE LOCAL AREA. WILL CARRY 20-30% MAINLY OVER FAR SOUTHERN VA/NE NC WED AS THE BOUNDARY IS SLOW TO PUSH THROUGH. HIGHS MAINLY UPPER 80S-LOWER 90S WED. BY WED NIGHT-FRI...A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE GFS/ECMWF/WPC FORECAST DOES PLACE THE SFC COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NE CONUS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION...BUT THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOKS VERY STRONG SO HIGHS WILL STILL AVG 85-90 F THU/FRI (COOLEST ALONG THE COAST AND ERN SHORE). GENLY DRY /PARTLY-MOSTLY SUNNY BUT WILL KEEP DIURNAL AFTN/EARLY EVENING 20% POPS ACRS THE SOUTH. && .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS DRAPED OVER THE CAROLINAS BACK INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. NORTHERN TERMINALS ARE SKC OR MOSTLY SO AND EXPECT THIS TO PERSIST AT SBY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FARTHER SOUTH, SOME SCT-BKN CU/SC PERSISTS FROM SE VA/NE NC (INVOF ORF/ECG) BACK TO JUST WEST OF KGSO. EXPECT MUCH OF THESE CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON. AND WHILE A FEW ISOLATED SHRAS ARE POSSIBLE, EXPECT TERMINALS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY. PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LIKELY YIELD A RE-OCCURANCE OF LOW CLOUDS OVER THE PIEDMONT, WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT STRATUS DROPS CIGS INTO MVFR RANGE AT RIC/PHF/ECG...AND EVEN A LOW PROBABILITY OF TEMPO IFR CIGS AFTER 09Z OVER THE SAME AREAS. WILL MENTION MVFR CONDS FOR NOW, WITH A SCATTERED DECK JUST ABOVE 1KFT. WHILE NO SIGNIFICANT VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED, HIGH RES MODELS SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY SHRAS OVERNIGHT. AREAL COVERAGE OF THESE SHOWERS WOULD BE LOW, SO WILL HOLD OUT OF THE TAF FOR THIS ISSUANCE. OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR AFTN/EVENING TSTMS SUNDAY EVENING INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 PERCENT MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE, SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG OR LOW CLOUDS WILL EXIST EACH DAY WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE. && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM NY TO NEW ENGLAND PROVIDING E/NE FLOW ACRS THE MARINE AREA WITH WIND SPEEDS AVERAGING AROUND 10 KT. WILL GRADUALLY SEE THE WINDS TURN TO THE E/SE OVERNIGHT/SATURDAY...BUT EXPECT THE WINDS TO REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE...WELL BELOW SCA LEVELS. WITH RELATIVELY WARM WATERS...COULD SEE SOME DIURNAL EFFECTS WITH S/SE FLOW CHANNELING UP THE BAY SAT NIGHT AND AGAIN SUN NIGHT WITH WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KT (AND GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KT)...BUT DOUBT IT WILL BE PROLONGED ENOUGH FOR ANY HEADLINES. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RUN 3 FT OR LESS BUT MAY INCREASE TO 4 FT IN THE OUTER PORTION OF 20NM MAINLY FROM PARRAMORE ISLAND ON NORTH LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BAY WAVES WILL AVG 1-2 FT...BUT MAY BUILD TO 2-3 FT SAT NIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET (OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION) WITH SEAS 2-4 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT OR LESS AS SFC HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED OFFSHORE AND NO SIGNIFICANT FRONTS MOVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL LATE TUE/WED. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025. NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102. VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAS NEAR TERM...MAS SHORT TERM...MAS LONG TERM...LKB AVIATION...ESS/MAM MARINE...LKB

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