Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KAKQ 311948
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
348 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016
The remnants of Post Tropical Storm Bonnie will slowly slide
northeast along the Carolina coast through Thursday. A cold front
then approaches from the west...crossing the area by Friday
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Latest sfc analysis shows the remnant lo of Post-Tropical Storm
Bonnie centered near the SC/NC cst, with a trof of lo pres
sitting just offshore. Despite decent 1000-500 mb
moisture, subsidence over the Mid Atlc has allowed for a dry day
and have capped pops at 20% for the remainder of the aftn with
breaks in the cloudiness also allowing for temps to make it into
the lo/mid 80s tda. Only shot of a shra ovrngt will really be over
se areas, with patchy fog again psbl over much of the area Wed
morng. Temps will bottom out to near normal readings, lows in the
the mid 60s most spots.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short term period will remain somewhat unsettled with frequent
chances for rain. Forecast is complicated by the weak remnant lo
of Post-Tropical Storm Bonnie sliding ne up the cst each day in
the period, with the Mid Atlc in a continued moist airmass
despite meager lift. For now, best chances of rain will primarily
be over srn areas. Chances for rain each period thru Thu will be
in the slight chance-chance range. For Fri, a cold frnt approaches
fm the w, moving into the Mid Atlc by late aftn/eveng. Pops remain
in the chance range e and likely range w, with thunder psbl as
well. Temps will be near normal thru the period, with highs avgg
in the upr 70s to mid 80s and lows ranging thru the 60s.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Cdfnt stalls invof Carolinas Fri night...w/ shras/psbl tstms
becoming confined to far srn/SE va and NE NC. The fnt moves back N
Sat-Sun as deep trough dives SE through the Great Lakes/Oh
Vly...bringing additional chcs for shras/tstms. On Mon...the next
cdfnt crosses the rgn (w/ psbl linger chcs for shras/tstms...though
will be trending POPs down fm W-E into Mon eve). Drying dp lyrd W
flo xpcd Mon ngt-Tue.
Highs Sat/Sun fm the m70s-arnd 80F at the cst to the l-m80s inland
Sat/Sun...then the l-m80s Mon and Tue. Lows in the 60s.
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Subsidence behind departing low pressure has resulted in much less
pcpn coverage than expected past several hours. However, plenty of
low level moisture remains so that the sct-bkn st of this morning
has only slowly lifted to cu between 2-4k ft this afternoon.
Tropical moisture bands continue to stream north across the north
carolina coastal plain and this moisture will likely make it at
least to near ecg before 00Z...thus went with VCSH there.
Otherwise...sct convection possible along seas breeze next several
hours as well...but timing into any one TAF site is problematic
given nothing on radar.
Guid suggests another night of low stratus and fog so expect local
ifr conditions once again late tonight. looks like a repeat performance
outlook...sct convection with a cold front is expected to cross
the area from nw to se Fri aftn/evening. The front stalls along
the Carolinas Sat and another round of showers will be possible
across coastal sections.
No headlines necessary attm. Remnant lo pres was located S of ILM
this aftn...and this sys will cont to be slo in tracking NE to off
the VA cst-Delmarva by Thu into Fri. A cdfnt approaches the wtrs
fm the NW Fri...pushing E and S of the wtrs Fri ngt...then
stalling ovr the Carolinas on Sat. That fnt pulls back N ovr the
wtrs lt Sat into Sun...then is followed by a cdfnt crossing the
wtrs fm the W lt Mon.
Persistent...mnly ENE wnds contg through Thu...becoming NNW w/
approach of/crossing of cdfnt lt Fri-Fri ngt. Another pd of (lgt)
onshore wnds xpcd this wknd...before becoming WSW Mon. Speeds
rmng aob 15 kt (into the wknd)...seas largely 3-4 ft...though may
build to 4-5 ft at times Wed into Thu eve (mnly S of Cape Charles)
as remnant lo pres tracks just off the mdatlc cst this timeframe.
Waves 1-2 ft with up to 3 ft possible at times in the mouth of
Ches Bay due to the onshore swell.
The monthly rainfall total at Richmond through Midnight May 30 was
9.79", adding to the new record for the month of May. Although
unlikely, additional rainfall is possible through this evening,
which could push the monthly total above 10". If this does occur,
it would only be the second occurrence of 10" or more of rain in a
month prior to July. The other occurrence was Jan 1937 (10.08").
Top 5 wettest months of May at Richmond...
1. 9.79" 2016 (Through 5/30)
2. 9.13" 1889
3. 8.98" 1873
4. 8.87" 1972
5. 8.67" 1886