Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 310750 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 350 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...BEFORE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS LO PRES OVER THE SRN GREAT LAKES REGION AND HI PRES RIDGING UP THE MID ATLANTIC FM THE SE STATES. THIS SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR SLY FLOW TDA WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...HIGHS RANGING FM THE MID 60S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE LO 70S MOST OTHER AREAS. OTWS...EXPECT SOME PASSING HI CLOUDS TDA ESPECIALLY OVER NRN AREAS. BREEZY SW WINDS DEVELOP BY MID MORNING AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WIND SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS MAINLY UP TO 25-30 MPH. THE COMBINATION OF DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ENHANCE FIRE DANGER DURING THE AFTN AND A STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED. SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION. CHANCES OF RAIN INCREASE LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENG AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LO APPROACHES THE MID ATLANTIC. NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF (UNDER A TENTH OF INCH) BUT POPS ARE NOW UP TO 60-70% OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL BE. CONDS DRY OUT QUICKLY AFTER MIDNITE WITH LO TEMPS TNGT ONLY IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION ON WED. A COOLER DAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S FOR INTERIOR VA/NE NC...AND IN THE MID-UPPER 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE WED NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 MOST LOCATIONS. WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OFFSHORE ON THU AND A WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA WILL BE WITHIN A WARMING AIRMASS ESPECIALLY AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP BY THE AFTN. MOST INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 70S ONCE AGAIN UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRI-SAT...WITH A NOD TOWARD THE 30/12Z ECWMF. BIGGEST CHANGES COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO IS PUSHING THE PRECIP BACK 6- 12 HRS...WITH THE FRONT NOW PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION FRI NIGHT- SAT MORNING. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF MEX AS WELL AS THE GULF STREAM. POTENT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE LOCATES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRI...WITH AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATING OVER SERN CANADA. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT REACHES THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS LATE FRI...LIKELY STALLING AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LAGS BEHIND. WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE SW FLOW IN TANDEM WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION FRI...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE NRN PIEDMONT TO THE MD ERN SHORE. HEIGHT FALLS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A SFC/THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THETA-E ADVECTION AND A WARM/MOIST AIRMASS (TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S) WILL MAINTAIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE SRN/SERN LOCAL AREA...AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF SHOWERS FRI AFTERNOON FROM SRN VA TO THE COAST. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FRI AFTERNOON. A SRN STREAM SYSTEM LIFTING FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY-NRN MID ATLANTIC REGION FRI NIGHT-SAT WILL DEVELOP A SFC LOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN THE VIC OF THE OH VALLEY TO GREAT LAKES. SFC LOW PROGGED TO LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING...PUSHING THE COLD FRONT THRU THE LOCAL AREA LATE FRI NIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ATTM APPEAR TO BE FRI NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE INCREASED TO HIGH END CHANCE POPS. PRECIP EXITS THE COAST SAT AFTERNOON (POSSIBLY QUICKER) AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. COOLER SAT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S-LOW 60S N TO MID- UPPER 60S S. DRY SUN WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. HIGHS SUN LOW-MID 60S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. UNSETTLED WEATHER PROGGED TO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA TODAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUE EVE. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT... GUSTY SW WINDS (TO ABT 30 KT) ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTN. A BRIEF -SHRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT KSBY THIS EVE. DRY WX AND VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED WED AND THU. GUSTY SW WINDS MAY AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THU AFTN. && .MARINE... MNLY W WNDS STARTING OFF EARLY TDA...W/ SPEEDS AOB 10 KT. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NW TDY...RESULTING IN AN INCRS IN SW FLOW OVR THE RGN BY THIS AFTERNOON. FLOW INCREASES TO 15-25 KT OVER THE WATER. WAVES BUILD TO 2-3 FT AND SEAS 3-4 FT. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATER TNGT W/ FLOW BECOMING NW POST FRONTAL. BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING BEFORE LO LVL CAA SURGE KICKS IN. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT LATE TNGT...CONT WED MRNG. SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT LATE TNGT INTO WEDS MRNG. SFC HI PRES LOCATES OVER THE WATER WEDS MRNG...ALLOWING SCA CONDITIONS TO SUBSIDE MIDDAY/AFTN. HI PRES SLIDES OFFSHORE THURS AS S FLOW RETURNS THURS-FRI...AVGG 10-20 KT. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATER LATE FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING. SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE POST FRONTAL. && .FIRE WEATHER... SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING INTO THE MID-20% RANGE ACROSS VA AND NORTHEAST NC WILL INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER. AFTER COORDINATING WITH THE NC AND VA FORESTRY OFFICIALS AND SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES...WILL MAINTAIN AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR THIS AFTERNOON. CRITICAL RED FLAG CRITERIA MAY BE MET IN A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...10-HR DEAD FUEL MOISTURE VALUES ARE STILL MARGINAL OR SLIGHTLY EXCEEDING THE NECESSARY THRESHOLD OF 7%. ON THE EASTERN SHORE...A STATEMENT WILL NOT BE NECESSARY DUE TO HIGHER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR INCOMING CLOUDS WITH AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ635>638. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAS NEAR TERM...MAS SHORT TERM...BMD/MAS LONG TERM...SAM AVIATION...ALB/JDM/DAP MARINE...ALB/SAM FIRE WEATHER...JDM/MAS

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