Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 261115 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 715 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain centered along the mid Atlantic coast today and tonight, and will slide off the coast on Monday. A cold front approaches from the west Monday night and will be slow to move across the region Tuesday and Tuesday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Current analysis indicating ~1025 mb sfc high pressure centered along the New England coast, ridging SW into the mid-Atlantic. Aloft, a ridge of high pressure is situated acrs the lower MS valley with a ridge axis extending NNE to the eastern Great Lakes. Quiet conditions prevail over the local area under mainly clear skies. Relatively cool for late June with temperatures ranging from the upper 50s to the mid 60s. Patchy fog has developed over the interior but should only have a minimal impact and will dissipate by around 12Z. A nice day on tap with dry conditions and mainly sunny skies (partly sunny acrs portions of ne NC). Dew pts will avg in the 50s to lower 60s with highs to range from the mid 80s along and west of I-95 to 75-80 F closer to the coast due to onshore E-NE flow. Mostly clear tonight with lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s once again. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The high moves offshore Monday resulting in a warmer southerly low level flow, although with the winds backed to more of a SE direction closer to the coast. Good model consensus with respect to trending a little slower with the arrival of increasing moisture from the W. The main impact to the forecast will be to delay POPS until after 21Z except over the far western zones, with little chance for anything over far SE VA and ne NC until after 00Z. Highs in the mid to upper 80s west of the bay...upper 70s to lwr- mid 80s along the coast. Models generally agree in increasing moisture across the area Monday night as the front approaches from the west. The upper support and jet axis remain well N/NW of the area, and the chance for severe TSTMS will be low (SPC day 2 outlook has only marginal risk over far NW CWA). Enough lift noted for likely pops from about I-95 on west with chc pops to the east. Thunder chc greatest during the evening hours. Warmer with lows in the upper 60s to lwr 70s. Not a lot Models show the boundary will be slow to push across the region Tuesday as the upper trough and associated cold front slowly moves east. Will maintain high chc pops for now, with a period of likely POPS Tue aftn/early evening over the SE closest to the front. Highs in the low to mid 80s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Sfc cold front will be slow to push off the coast Tue ngt/Wed mrng as upper lvl trough crosses the rgn. POPs lwrg only gradually NW-SE into Wed aftn. Sfc hi pres crosses the FA Wed ngt into Thu...then weakens. Broad upper lvl trough dominates Thu into Sat. Maintaining POPs 20-30% Wed ngt through Thu ngt (highest south)...then incrsg to 30-50% POPs Fri into Sat. Highs each day in the l-m80s. Lows in the m60s-l70s Tue ngt...l60s-arnd 70F Wed ngt...then mnly 65-70F Thu ngt/Fri ngt. && .AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure settles right over the Mid Atlc region today into tngt, then slides farther e into the Atlc during Mon as a cold front approaches fm the wnw. Expect mainly SKC at the taf sites today into tngt, with at least MVFR or IFR fog possible early Mon morng. OUTLOOK...As various frontal systems affect the area, there will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms beginning late Mon and continuing into Wed. The best chances for precipitation will be through Tue night && .MARINE... No headlines in the short term today thru Mon ngt. High pressure will remain cntrd just off the New England and nrn Mid Atlc cst thru tngt, then slides farther e into the Atlc during Mon, as a weak cold front approaches fm the wnw. Expect NE winds 5 to 15 kt today becoming ESE 5 to 10 kt tngt, then SE or S 5 to 15 kt Mon. S or SW winds 5 to 15 kt Mon ngt thru Tue as a secondary cold front approaches fm the nw. && .HYDROLOGY... Flood warning has been cancelled for the James River at Richmond Westham, as the river level is now around 11.6 ft and falling (crested at 12.17 ft). See FLSAKQ for details. && .CLIMATE... June has been another wet month at Richmond, the monthly total rainfall through the 24th stands at 6.92" and already makes this the 9th wettest June on record (2004 is wettest June with 9.93"). && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR LONG TERM...LKB/JAO AVIATION...TMG MARINE...TMG HYDROLOGY...AKQ CLIMATE...AKQ

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