Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 310142 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 942 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST BY FRIDAY...THEN MOVE INLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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LATEST REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR DEPICTS ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER CNTRL NC AND OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS...WITH THE LOCAL AREA PRECIP FREE. SINGLE LIGHT SHOWER REACHED INTO SRN BRUNSWICK COUNTY BEFORE DISSIPATING THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...SKIES HAVE GENERALLY CLEARED WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. SHORTWAVE WILL DIG INTO THE MIDWEST OVERNIGHT...WITH CIRRUS STREAMING INTO THE SRN MID-ATLANTIC. EXPECT THE CIRRUS SHIELD TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...BUT REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA...KEEPING THE REGION PRECIP FREE AND GENERALLY CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR. STILL RATHER COMFORTABLE NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... TROF ALOFT WILL WEAKEN/SHIFT WESTWARD INTO THE OH/TN/MS VALLEYS THU INTO FRI. WEAK SFC HI PRES WILL BE OFF THE CST THU...WITH SSE LO LEVEL FLO ACRS THE AREA. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED...BUT STILL SHOULD BE A DRY DAY WITH WARMER TEMPS. UNDER A PARTLY OR MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPR 80S. DURING FRI...BERMUDA HI PRES REBOUNDS ACRS THE WRN ATLC...WITH DEEP LAYERED SWLY FLO ALOFT (OVR THE ERN SEABOARD) AND A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING ALONG THE SE VA/NE NC CST. IN ADDITION...AN EASTERLY SFC FLO FM THE ATLC WILL PROVIDE INCREASING LO LEVEL MOIST. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES WILL RESULT IN INCREASED SHOWER/TSTM CHCS...ESPLY FRI AFTN/EVENG...AND THUS WILL CARRY SOLID CHC POPS (40-50%). WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS ARND AND PCPN POSSIBLE...HI TEMPS ON FRI WILL LIKELY BE A TOUCH COOLER THAN THU...IN THE LWR TO MID 80S. FRI NGT AND SAT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL NUDGE INLAND A BIT MORE...AT LEAST INTO ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WITH A CONTINUED MOIST SFC-ALOFT FLO OVR THE REGION...AND WEAK LO PRES AREAS MOVNG NNE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS (60%) EVERYWHERE DURING THIS TIME. EXPECTING PLENTY OF CLOUDS...SO HIGHS ON SAT WILL BE IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S. LOWS FRI NGT RANGING FM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PLUME OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY BETWEEN A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND A TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST. GENERALLY EXPECTING MAINLY DIURNAL AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH LINGERING OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND THEN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MIDWEEK. THIS WILL SHOVE THE PLUME OF MOISTURE OFFSHORE...WITH POPS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TO SLIGHT CHC NW-SE BY MIDWEEK. HIGHS SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE LOW/MID 80S SUNDAY/MONDAY...AND TREND UPWARD TO THE MID/UPPER 80S TUESDAY...AND UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. && .AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. WEAK SFC HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO SLIDE OFFSHORE THIS EVENG. THIS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF SKC WITH SOME SCT/BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS PSBL AT TIMES. WINDS STAY LGT THRU THE PERIOD. OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A A CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTN/EVENING TSTMS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. VFR IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF PCPN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
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&& .MARINE... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WIND SHOULD AVERAGE 5-10KT OUT OF THE SSE. A COASTAL/INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE WIND WILL BECOME EASTERLY FRIDAY...AND SHIFT TO SE BY SATURDAY WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING AOB 15KT. THE TROUGH PUSHES INLAND SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THE WIND BECOMING SOUTHERLY AND REMAINING AOB 15KT. SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 2-3FT...WITH 1-2FT WAVES IN THE BAY. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...SAM SHORT TERM...TMG LONG TERM...AJZ AVIATION...DAP MARINE...AJZ

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