Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KAKQ 191833 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 233 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES EASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND OFF THE COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... SHARP CUTOFF IN THE RA CONTS ACRS THE FA...NRN 1/2 JUST MCLDY...SRN PORTION MNLY LGT RA. LATEST HRR SUGGESTS A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IN THE PCPN ACRS THE NRN PORTION OF THE RA...THOUGH KEEPS AT LEAST SCT PCPN FM SE VA TO NE NC THROUGH THIS EVE. WILL CONT W/ POPS 70% OR HIGHER MNLY ALG AND S OF A LINE FM LUNENBURG COUNTY VA TO PTB-KIPTOPEKE...W/ SLGT CHC-CHC POPS N TO A LINE FM ABT WAL-OFP TO NRN CUMBERLAND COUNTY IN VA. VRB CLDS TO MCLDY FAR N...TO RMNG MNLY CLDY OVR THE REST OF THE FA THROUGH THE AFTN. MADE SLGT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS...W/ HI TEMPS RANGING FM THE M/U50S S TO M60S FAR N. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE RAIN SHIELD WILL GRADUALLY SINK SSE TNGT THRU SUN NGT...AS THE SFC HI PRES BLDS ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND JUST OFFSHR. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE LO PRES AREA AND ITS MOISTURE TO PUSH A LITTLE FARTHER AWAY FM THE SE AND MID ATLC CSTS. SO...DECREASING CHCS FOR RAIN FM NW TO SE...WITH IMPROVING SKY CONDITIONS. UPR RDG OF HI PRES THEN BLDS OVR THE REGION DURING MON...RESULTING IN A PRTLY OR MSTLY SNY SKY. LO TEMPS TNGT RANGING FM THE LWR 40S TO THE LWR 50S. MAX TEMPS ON SUN RANGING FM 55 TO 60 AT THE CST...TO THE MID TO UPR 60S INLAND/PIEDMONT. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 30S TO UPR 40S SUN NGT...WITH HIGHS ON MON RANGING FM THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S AT THE CST...TO THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 INLAND. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR SEASONABLE NORMAL TEMPS WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY. SRN STREAM ASSOCIATED COASTAL LOW SLOWLY LIFTS NEWD OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST MON NIGHT-TUES MORNING AS A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE OH VALLEY. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA AS THE PARENT LOW LIFTS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA TUES AFTERNOON AND OFF THE COAST TUES EVENING. WHILE THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE OVER THE OH VALLEY AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA...A WEAKER LEADING SHORTWAVE WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING WINDS ALOFT FOR AMPLE FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT. PRECIP WATERS WILL BEGIN TO RECOVER AS LOW LEVEL H85 FLOW INCREASES. THE RESULT WILL BE SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS. THETA-E ADVECTION AND TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S WILL ALSO PRODUCE A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...SO THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 50S...LITTLE CAPE/LIFT IN THE MIXED PHASE LAYER AND MODEST SHEAR WILL LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE. HAVE ONLY MENTIONED A SLIGHT CHANCE TUES AFTERNOON FOR THUNDER. REMNANT MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN NWLY FLOW WILL COINCIDE WITH THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE LOCAL AREA TUES NIGHT-WEDS MORNING...AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WEDS SOME SPRINKLES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN LOCAL AREA AND ERN SHORE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WEDS NIGHT-THURS. A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THURS NIGHT-FRI AS A WRN CONUS TROUGH AMPLIFIES AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EAST. FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A FRONT POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S (TO NEAR 80 INLAND) THANKS TO SLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COOLER WEDS- THURS BEHIND THE FRONT (NW-W WINDS) WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S-LOW 70S. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE WILL WARM TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S EXCEPT THURS MORNING WHEN LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID-UPPER 40S. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR CONDS ACROSS THE REGION ALTHO -RA CONTS OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED JUST OFF THE NE COAST OF FL EARLY THIS AFTN WILL TRACK SLOWLY ENE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTO THE ATLANTIC THRU SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE FORECAST AREA THRU TODAY AND TONIGHT. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS FALLING FROM A 6-10KFT DECK...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHFT SOUTH AS UPPER WNDS TURN EAST THEN NE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NO PRECIP EXPECTED AT RIC OR SBY. -RA WILL CONT INTERMITTENTLY FOR PHF UNTIL TONIGHT AND SHOULD GENERALLY END FOR ORF/ECG BY SUN MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT CIG/VIS CONDS WILL REMAIN VFR THRU THE PERIOD. OUTLOOK: NE FLOW CONTINUES SAT NGT THOUGH MON AS HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA MOVES E AND WEDGES SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH VFR CONDS RETURNING WED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE... LATEST OBS REFLECT LIGHT N-NE FLOW OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING. WX ANALYSIS FEATURES SFC LOW PRESSURE (AT THE SFC AND ALOFT) OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH E-NE ALONG THE GA/SC COAST TODAY. THE RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED NE-E FLOW OVER THE WATERS, WHICH WILL SLOWLY INCREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SCA MAINLY FOR SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MONDAY, AND AN SCA HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR TODAY OVER THE CURRITUCK SOUND WITH THIS PACKAGE. FLAGS FOR THE LOWER BAY AND LOWER JAMES FOLLOW SHORTLY THEREAFTER THIS EVENING, AS THE SFC LOW WILL SLOWLY BUILDS E-NE THRU THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK (AS 1030+MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS N OF THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK). FLAGS WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE BAY AND POSSIBLY THE YORK/RAPPAHANNOCK BY AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY, WITH NE-E FLOW TO PERSIST THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN 4-6 FT SUNDAY, LIKELY BUILDING TO 6-9 FT (HIGHEST SOUTH) AS NE WINDS INCREASE LATER SUN AND EARLY MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO TIGHTENING GRADIENT. HEADLINES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THRU THE FOURTH PERIOD (SUNDAY NGT) FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS. FLOW RETURNS TO THE E-SE MON NIGHT AS LOW EXITS AND GRADIENT SLACKENS. WINDS VEER S-SW BY TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK COOL FRONT, WHICH WILL CROSS THE WATERS TUES AFTERNOON-EVENING. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOW END SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUES NIGHT-WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ632-634-638. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ633. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654- 656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG NEAR TERM...ALB/TMG SHORT TERM...TMG LONG TERM...SAM AVIATION...MAM/JEF MARINE...MAM

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.