Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 301057 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 657 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH OFFSHORE TODAY. MEANWHILE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY BEFORE EXITING THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... EARLY MRNG SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED A SFC CDFNT HAVING PUSHED S AND E OF THE FA. THAT FNT WILL CONT TO MOVE E AND S THROUGH TDA WHILE WK SFC HI PRES BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE RGN FM THE WNW. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING LAST VESTIGES OF RA INVOF EXTREME ESE VA AND CSTL NE NC. XPCG THE RA TO TO BE OUT OF THE FA BY 12Z/30. CLRG RMNS SLO FM THE WNW AND W/ LGT/CALM WNDS AND RA...PATCHY/AREAS OF FG HAVE DEVELOPED OVR PORTIONS OF THE PDMNT W OF RIC. WILL INCLUDE FG FOR MNLY AREAS W OF I95 THROUGH ABT 13Z/30...OTRW XPCG CLRG TO CONT FM THE WNW THROUGH THE MRNG HRS (LASTLY INVOF IMMEDIATE CST IN SE VA/NE NC). AVGG OUT P/MSNY OVR THE FA TDA...W/ HI TEMPS RANGING FM THE L/M60S NNW TO M/U60S SSE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... FA TO BE INBETWEEN FNTL BNDRY (WELL) OFF THE CST AND STRONG UPR LVL SYS DIVING SE FM THE LAKES/OH VLY ON TNGT INTO FRI NGT. CLR- PCLDY AND COOLER TNGT W/ LO TEMPS M/U30S INLAND TO ARND 50F ALG SE CSTL AREAS. STARTING OUT MNLY SKC FRI MRNG...THEN VRB/INCRSG CLDS BY THE AFTN. HI TEMPS FM THE U50S FAR NW TO L/M60S ELSW. ALL MDLS CONT TO SHOW DYNAMIC WX SYS DEVELOP INVOF MDATLC CST FM LT FRI THROUGH SAT. STRONG UPR LVL LO PRES CONTS TO DIVE ESE THROUGH THE CAROLINAS...WHILE AT SAME TIME...SFC LO PRES SLOWLY DEVELOPS OFF THE CST (INVOF LINGERING FNTL BNDRY). GIVEN FCST OF HOW FAR S UPR LVL SYS TRACKS...MOST SGFNT IMPACTS FM THIS STORM SITUATION APR TO BE FOR ERN/CSTL LOCATIONS (PRIMARILY) FM SAT AFTN INTO 1ST PART OF SAT NGT. POPS TO INCRS THROUGHOUT THE DAY SAT...W/ HIGHEST POPS (60-80%) NR THE CST...TO MNLY 30-50% POPS ELSW. ADDITIONALLY...INCRSG CONCERN TO STRONG NNE WNDS (TO 35-45 MPH) NR THE CST ALONG W/ MINOR TO PTNTLLY MODERATE CSTL FLOODING (INVOF SRN BAY...ALG THE ATLC BEACHES). WILL HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IMPACTS IN HWO. LO TEMPS FRI NGT MNLY IN THE L/M40S INLAND TO ARND 50F AT THE IMMEDIATE CST. HI TEMPS SAT IN THE L/M50S INLAND TO ARND 60F NR THE CST. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WINDY/RAINY SAT EVE (CLOSE TO THE CST) AS STM STRENGTHENS OFFSHORE. THE SFC LO BEGINS TO EXIT THE MDATLC CSTL WTRS AFT MDNGT SAT NGT. CLRG FM THE W WILL BEGIN AFT 03-06Z/02. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY...BEFORE SETTLING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL ACCOMPANY THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD ONLY RISE TO 50-55 UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AS CAA CONTINUES. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS FALLING TO AROUND 30-32 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA (UPPER 20S POSSIBLE IN FAVORED COLD SPOTS)...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES (35-40) FOR FAR SE PORTIONS. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES THIS FALL (INLAND) ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A SLOW MODERATING TREND IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM 55-60...WITH LOW/MID 60S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN RATHER COOL TUESDAY MORNING RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 30S INTERIOR TO LOW 40S FOR SE COASTAL LOCATIONS. LOWS SHOULD MODERATE INTO THE LOW/MID 40S WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH OF THE REGION AS OF 12Z...WITH WINDS NOW AVGG OUT OF THE N AOB 10 KT. CHANCES OF RAIN HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE AREA...WITH JUST THE OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR SOME IFR/MVFR FOG FOR ANOTHER HR OR TWO. OTHERWISE...VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD. HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W THIS AFTN...REMAINING OVR THE AREA AND DISSIPATING THRU FRI AFTN. UA/SFC LO PRES WILL THEN AFFECT THE REGION LATE FRI NGT INTO SAT NGT WITH PCPN AND LWR CIGS/VSBYS PSBL.
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&& .MARINE...
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SCA`S HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THRU 10AM FOR CSTL WTRS S OF THE VA/NC BORDER WHERE 5 FT SEAS PERSIST...AND CURRITUCK SOUND DUE TO 15-20 KT WINDS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS HAVE COMMENCED OVR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY SO HEADLINES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED THERE. FOR TDA...EXPECT N WINDS AVGG 10-15 KT AS A COLD FRNT PUSHES S OF THE AREA AND BROAD SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W. SIMILAR WINDS INTO TNGT WITH WEAK HI PRES OVR THE MID ATLANTIC. THE HI DISSIPATES BY FRI...WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING SUB-SCA (10-15 KT N WINDS AND 2-3 FT SEAS). A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY STRONG CAA LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. A NNW WIND IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND A PERIOD OF GALE CONDITIONS IS INCREASINGLY LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SCA CONDITIONS LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. IF RAPID CYCLOGENESIS EVENTUALLY OCCURS OFF THE VA COAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF STORM FORCE GUSTS IS POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER BAY AND OCEAN DURING THE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/SATURDAY EVENING TIMEFRAME. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THEN SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ633- 658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/ESS NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...ALB/ESS LONG TERM...AJZ AVIATION...MAS MARINE...MAS

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