Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 291116 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 716 AM EDT Mon May 29 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front approaches from the northwest this Memorial Day and stalls north of the region Tuesday into Wednesday. Meanwhile, weak low pressure tracks across North Carolina tonight and off the Outer Banks Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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The current surface analysis places weak low pressure off the Delmarva coast, with a weak surface ridge axis across the Piedmont, and a slow moving cold front over the Ohio Valley. Stratus/fog will gradually dissipate from SW-NE through the morning as drier air arrives from the WSW resulting in partly to mostly sunny conditions by aftn. Temperatures this morning range from the mid 60s to around 70 across most of the area with low 60s for the MD Ern Shore. Forecast highs today are mainly in the mid/upper 80s for central/srn/SE VA and NE NC. Temperatures will be lower over the Ern Shore where stratus will be slower to erode, with highs generally in the mid 70s to near 80, and perhaps only around 70 for the MD beaches. There is little support for showers/tstms today, with only a slight chc of sea/bay-breeze convection over the Ern Shore and wrn shore of the Bay.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Weak surface low pressure tracks across NC tonight associated with shortwave energy embedded within WSW flow aloft. Forecast PoPs area generally 20-40% across srn/SE VA/NC NC, with thunder maintained overnight due to the presence of some mid-level instability. Partly to mostly cloudy with lows ranging through the 60s. 00Z/29 guidance continues to show that the cold front becomes aligned parallel to WSW flow aloft Tuesday, stalling immediately N of the region and perhaps pushing into the MD Ern Shore. Meanwhile, the aforementioned weak surface low pushes off the Outer Banks Tuesday morning. The chc for aftn/evening showers/tstms will diminish Tuesday, though will continue with 20-40% PoPs in far srn and SE VA/NE NC, and 20-30% for the Nrn Neck/Ern Shore. Highs Tuesday range from the mid 70s to around 80 at the coast to the mid 80s inland, after morning lows ranging through the 60s. There will be little change in conditions Tuesday night into Wednesday. An upper level trough will sharpen over the Great Lakes Wednesday, but there is a lack of any trigger for convective development Wednesday aftn. Lows Tuesday night range through the 60s, followed by highs Wednesday in the upper 70s/around 80 at the coast to the mid 80s inland. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... The long term period beginning Wednesday night will start off mainly dry with high pressure over the Mid Atlantic States Thursday. The high will merge with the Bermuda High pressure ridge. This will promote a slight warming trend and an increase of moisture. A frontal boundary will settle over northern portions of the Mid Atlantic States and help to trigger scattered mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms over the region. High temperatures will range from 80 to 85 but slightly cooler at the beaches. Lows of 60 to 65 Thursday and Friday mornings warm to the mid to upper 60s Saturday and Sunday mornings. && .AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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The current analysis shows low pressure off the Delmarva coast, with a weak ridge of surface high pressure over the Piedmont. Stratus and fog developed across much of the area overnight, but conditions should improve from SW-NE as drier conditions arrive from the WSW as low pressure departs to the NE today. IFR conditions will likely persist the longest at SBY, until ~16z, with the other terminals improving by 14z. There is a slight chc of mainly sea /bay- breeze showers/tstms this aftn. Low pressure tracks off the NC Outer Banks later tonight into Tuesday bringing a chc of showers and embedded tstms to SE VA/NE NC. Mainly dry conditions are then expected to prevail Wednesday through Friday. Patchy fog or stratus is possible each morning within a few hours of sunrise.
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&& .MARINE... Latest surface analysis centers weak low pressure just offshore the Delmarva, with a frontal boundary stretching along the coast and into northeast North Carolina. Winds are generally northwest to west at 5-15 knots. Seas average 2-3 feet and waves 1 foot. Low pressure pushes farther offshore today as the North Carolina front lifts northward. A weakening cold front approaches from the west. Light flow persists through the afternoon, becoming onshore and increasing to 10-15 knots this evening/tonight as the front reaches the coast. Seas build to 2-4 feet (highest northern coastal waters) tonight. Waves 1-2 feet. The front stalls/washes out along the coast Tuesday as another weakening front approaches from the west. Winds generally south of the south at 5-10 knots. The front pushes just offshore late Tuesday night as flow becomes west to northwest at 10-15 knots. Seas 2-3 feet. Another cold front approaches from the west Wednesday, crossing the waters Wednesday night. Weak cold advection behind the front results in continued sub-SCA conditions. High pressure builds over the waters for the end of the work week. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB NEAR TERM...AJZ SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB LONG TERM...LSA AVIATION...AJZ MARINE...SAM

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