Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 280252 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1052 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure builds over the area Wednesday, then slides off the coast for Wednesday night through Friday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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Shower and thunderstorm coverage over the lower Maryland Eastern Shore has diminished late this evening as the associated upper level shortwave slides offshore. Expect only isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms through 05-06Z before the best moisture and energy pushes offshore. Sky has cleared inland, with only a few high passing clouds through the overnight period as high pressure builds in from the west overnight. Cool and dry overnight, with lows dropping into the 50`s inland to low 60`s near the coast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... Sfc high pressure will build over the region on Wed, providing dry weather and comfortable conditions under a sunny or mostly sunny sky. Highs in the lower to mid 80s, except mid to upper 70s at the beaches. The high will slide out to sea later Wed night thru Fri. Dry weather will prevail thru Thu night, but SSW flow will start to increase on Thu resulting in a warmer and more humid airmass. Clear or mostly clear Wed night with lows 60 to 65. Partly to mostly sunny on Thu with highs in the mid 80s to near 90. That SSW flow will bring increasing dewpts/low level moisture into the region for Thu night and Fri. Enough of that moisture combined with weak lift could trigger widely sctd showers or tstms over srn/sw counties Fri aftn into Fri evening. Lows Thu night in the mid 60s to near 70. Highs on Fri in the upper 80s to lower 90s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Long term period will feature a fairly typical summertime pattern with a weakening cold front approaching from the W/NW on Sat with a lee sfc trough out ahead of the front. Still capping PoPs at 20-40% in the aftn/evening under partly-mostly sunny skies as any more significant forcing stays NW closer to the front. Lows mainly 70-75 F with highs Sat primarily in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Sunday will see the front wash out across the local area, will maintain 20- 30% PoPs (except 30 to 40% over northeast NC). Highs in the upper 80/around 90 F. May even be able to lower PoPs a little more across the N with later model runs but wanted to keep some continuity given the weak front and a lot of uncertainty as to how much it actually weakens. Mon/Tue will see the local area generally in light flow and minimal forcing. It will be very warm and humid with enough aftn/early evening instability along a lee trough for ~20% PoPs most areas. Highs 90-95 F inland and mid-upper 80s/lower 90s near the coast. Lows generally 70-75 F. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A line of showers and isolated thunderstorms will affect the Eastern Shore of Maryland and SBY early this evening, otherwise VFR conditions with mostly scattered middle and high clouds across the CWA tonight. The showers expected to move or dissipate from the region by midnight. A weak trough of low pressure will pass through the eastern portions of the region early tonight before dissipating. Then mostly clearing should occur as high pressure builds into the Mid Atlantic region. Winds will be light through the TAF period as the high centers over the area. Outlook: VFR conditions expected for much of the week. Surface high will slide off the coast on Thursday. The next chance for showers/thunderstorms will be late Friday/Saturday. && .MARINE... Winds are now less than 10 kt across the marine area and outside of convection winds this evening will be rather light. A weak frontal boundary pushes through the waters later tonight, with pressure rises Wed morning as sfc high pressure builds into the area from the NW. This will allow for a brief surge of higher N winds to around 15 kt with gusts near 20 kt, mainly from 09-12Z/Wed morning. Still looks too marginal/short-lived to have any headlines but waves will increase a bit as well to 2-3 ft in the Ocean and lower Bay Wed morning. As the sfc high builds overhead by aftn, expect much lighter onshore flow to develop at 5-10 kt. High pressure slides well off the coast Thursday/Friday with return flow resulting in increasing S-SW winds to 15-20 kt. Waves 2-3 ft on the Bay and seas possibly building to 4-5 ft north of Parramore Island (genly more like 2-4 ft for southern coastal waters). A few SCA headlines may be needed late Thu/Thu night, but they will be marginal events. A slow moving cold a front approaches from the NW Sat but weakens by the time it reaches the local area on Sunday. Thus, outside of any tstms conditions will be sub-SCA with winds only 10-15 kt or less. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...SAM/TMG SHORT TERM...TMG LONG TERM...LKB AVIATION...JEF/WRS MARINE...LKB

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