Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 272059 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 359 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... SFC LOW PRESSURE NOW ANALYZED ALONG THE ERN NC COAST...AND PROGGED TO SHIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. STILL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACRS SOUTHERN/SE VA...WITH SKIES PARTIALLY CLEARING. HAD SOME REPORTS OF SLEET WITH THE BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH SE VA...BUT SFC TEMPS ARE IN THE 40S SO NO IMPACTS WILL OCCUR. WILL MAINTAIN CHC TO LIKELY POPS FOR A FEW MORE HRS...TAPERING OFF BY 00Z OR SHORTLY AFTERWARDS. SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR...BUT NW WINDS WILL KEEP READINGS FROM DROPPING OFF AS MUCH AS THEY OTHERWISE WOULD...ESP NEAR THE COAST. LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S WEST OF I-95 TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S SE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... A QUIET PERIOD EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL ON FRI EVEN UNDER NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE. THIS WILL RESULT FROM STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TN VALLEY...BUILDING EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS. NW WINDS AVERAGING 10-15 MPH IN THE MORNING WILL GENLY BECOME LIGHTER BY AFTN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. BLENDED GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE FOR HIGHS GIVEN 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO BE -8 TO -10 C. THIS WILL YIELD HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S THROUGHOUT...MID 40S IN NE NC AND IT MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE UPPER 30S ACRS THE FAR NORTH. THANKFULLY...THE SUN WILL FINALLY SHINE. NAM/GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY FRI NIGHT...ALLOWING THE UPPER FLOW TO FLATTEN OVER THE ERN CONUS. THIS BRINGS AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS LATE FRI/FRI NIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACRS THE NORTH. STILL EXPECT A COLD NIGHT...AS TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY DROP IN THE EVENING THEN LEVEL OFF THEREAFTER. LOWS MAINLY 25-30 F...NOT REALLY ANY WARMER NEAR THE COAST DUE TO LIGHT FLOW ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SFC HIGH. SKIES AVG PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY NORTH...AND PARTLY SUNNY SOUTH ON SAT...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTN. TEMPS MODERATE A BIT ON SAT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SSW. STILL A BIT BELOW AVG WITH HIGHS 50-55 F CENTRAL AND SOUTH AND IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WILL SEND A COUPLE OF FAST MOVING COLD FRONTS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. RIDGING ALONG THE LATITUDE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA WILL KEEP HEIGHTS HIGH ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE SOUTHWARD PENETRATION OF ARCTIC AIR. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MID LEVEL MOISTURE FOLLOWING THE FRONT MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST WITH A CLEARING SKY FROM THE WEST BUT SLGT CHC POPS CONTINUING TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM. HIGHS IN THE UPR 50S NE TO MID 60S SW MONDAY COOL TO THE MID 40S NW TO MID 50S SE TUESDAY. HIGHS IN THE 50S ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOWS IN THE 40S MONDAY MORNING LOWER TO THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNINGS. && .AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A STRONG SHORT WAVE WAS PRODUCING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE PIEDMONT WILL MOVE TO THE EAST WITH INCREASING N/NW WINDS IN ITS WAKE. THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE TOWARD EVENING ESPECIALLY AT ORF. AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST...LIGHT RAIN AND LATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DISSIPATE AT THE TAF SITES FROM WEST TO EAST. OUTLOOK... VFR AND DRY WX IS INDICATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AROUND MONDAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS INDICATED THROUGH TUESDAY. && .MARINE... LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OFF THE ERN NC COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG ~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