Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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509 FXUS61 KAKQ 251125 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 625 AM EST Sat Nov 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front approaches from the Ohio Valley today, then crosses the area tonight. High pressure builds back in from the west Sunday and Monday. The high will slowly shift off the coast on Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... An elongated area of high pressure currently extends from Gulf coast newd to the mid-Atlantic coast. To the southeast, weak low pressure continues to lift slowly NE off the Carolina coast. A nrn stream trough will dig over the Ern Great Lakes today, with an associated cold front approaching from the NW, which will result in high pressure sliding offshore. The nrn stream energy will weaken and become sheared out as it passes through the local area tonight, keeping the bulk of the moisture well N of the region as the cold front crosses the area. Therefore, have lowered PoPs to remove any mention of a shower, as all models are in agreement on dry fropa. Low-level SW flow develops later this morning as the high slides offshore. Mostly sunny in the morning with increasing clouds from W-E during the aftn. The airmass will continue to moderate with highs reaching the low 60s N, to mid 60s along/south of I-64. Cooler and drier air will filter in from the NW tonight behind the cold front with decreasing clouds from NW-SE. Lows range from the mid/upper 30s NW to the low/mid 40s SE. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure builds in from the NW Sunday and then slides across the region Sunday night into Monday. Breezy Sunday morning through midday with a NW wind. Cooler Sunday with highs generally in the low/mid 50s under a mostly sunny sky. Continued mostly clear/sunny Sunday night into Monday. Lows Sunday night range from the upper 20s to mid 30s, followed by highs Monday in the mid to potentially upper 50s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The medium range period is expected to be characterized by a split flow pattern, with generally broad mid/upper ridging across the ern Conus with surface high pressure over the southeast Conus. Dry and mild conditions are expected to prevail Tuesday through Thursday, with highs generally in the upper 50s/low 60s N to low/mid 60s S/SE, and overnight lows in the upper 30s/around 40F N, to the low/mid 40s SE. A cold front approaches from the NW and crosses the region in the Thursday night/Friday timeframe, with the 24/12z modes consensus depicting a mainly dry and progressive frontal passage, with the probability of rain aob climatology. Temperatures will trend cooler behind the front. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure continues to sit over the region this morning with low pressure off the Southeast coast. Most locations are clear this morning but patchy ground fog has developed across parts of SE VA, including at KPHF/KORF. Intermittent MVFR/IFR BR will continue thru 13Z at these locations. High pressure slides offshore today as a cold front approaches from the NW. This will result in a wind shift to SW, with speeds mainly 8-12kt this aftn, with only occasional gusts to 15-20kt. The cold front sweeps across the area tonight resulting in a wind shift to NW. This frontal passage will be dry. High pressure builds in from the NW Sunday, passes across the region Monday, and then settles off the Southeast coast Tuesday/Wednesday. Dry and VFR conditions are expected to prevail. && .MARINE... A cold front crosses the waters tonight shifting winds to the NW-N. CAA surge noted btwn 06Z-18Z Sun. Hoisted SCA`s for this period. Winds/seas diminish Sun eve and remain below SCA levels though mid week as high pres builds into the area. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 4 PM EST Sunday for ANZ634- 650-652-654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Sunday for ANZ630>633-638. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM SHORT TERM...AJZ/JDM LONG TERM...AJZ AVIATION...JDM MARINE...MPR is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.