Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 241106 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 706 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO AND OVER THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... LO PRES WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND CANADIAN MARITIMES CSTS TODAY INTO THIS EVENG...AS HI PRES BLDS INTO THE AREA FM THE OH VALLEY. UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY...MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... HI PRES WILL BLD OVER THE REGION AND JUST OFFSHR TNGT THRU SAT...MAINTAINING DRY AUTUMN WX. CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR TNGT WITH LOWS RANGING THRU THE 40S. MOSTLY SUNNY ON SAT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S. A WEAK/DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SAT NGT. THIS FRONT WILL DO LITTLE MORE THAN INCREASE WINDS FM THE NW ON SUN...WHILE LOTS OF SUNSHINE WILL CONTINUE. LOWS SAT NGT RANGING FM THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S. HIGHS ON SUN RANGING FM THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A WEAK TROUGH WILL BE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY AND THEN SLIDES OFF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY/RAIN-FREE. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD...TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO WARM INTO THE LOW-MID 70S DURING THE DAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE A MUCH SLOWER WARMING TREND WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE 40S SUN NIGHT (LOW-MID 50S BEACHES)...IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S MON NIGHT (MID 50S BEACHES)...AND IN THE 50S TUE NIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO IMPACT THE MID ATLANTIC REGION IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA LATE WED NIGHT. EXPECT CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS WEDNESDAY PROGRESSES. && .AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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VFR CONDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LTL MORE THAN SOME SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 12 KFT AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. OTHERWISE, DEEP LOW PRES SYS NOW EAST OF CAPE COD WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE TOWARD ATLANTIC CANADA TODAY, EVENTUALLY LOCATING EAST OF MAINE BY THIS AFTN. PRES GRADIENT HAS SLACKENED AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE FALLEN OFF OVER THE CWA. NW WINDS 8-12 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST. OUTLOOK: VFR CONDS LOOK TO PERSIST TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION...EVENTUALLY SLIDING OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .MARINE... LATEST OBS REFLECT NW FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING ~15-20KT, WITH SOME HIGHER WINDS ~25KT PERSISTING AT ELEVATED TERMINALS. SEAS 5-7FT (HIGHEST NORTH) WITH WAVES 3-5FT ON THE CHES BAY. VERT STACKED, DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTN. MEANWHILE, SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEST OF THE WATERS TODAY. RESULTANT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY SLACKEN TODAY AS HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION, RESULTING IN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. SCA FLAGS COME DOWN OVER THE RIVERS LATER THIS MORNING AND BY AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUND/BAY. OVER THE COASTAL WATERS, WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH AFOREMENTIONED SLACKENING GRADIENT. GIVEN THAT WIND WAVES ARE KEEPING SEAS ELEVATED THIS MORNING, EXPECT SEAS/WAVES SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT PRES GRADIENT WILL BE SLOWEST TO RELAX OVER THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS. THUS, HAVE HELD ONTO SCA FLAGS UNTIL EARLY EVENING NORTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE, WITH SCA FLAGS DROPPING FARTHER SOUTH BY THIS AFTN. A WEAK TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE WATERS ON SATURDAY, WITH SUB-SCA WINDS OUT OF THE NNW EXPECTED TO BACK AROUND TO THE SW SATURDAY AFTN IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH. WINDS THEN VEER BACK TO THE NW AFTER IT CROSSES THE AREA SAT NGT/SUNDAY MORNING. ONLY A MODEST POST FRONTAL CAA SURGE SUNDAY, SO EXPECT WINDS TO AVERAGE AOB 15 KT, THOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS SHIFT TO THE E-SE BY LATE MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS...EVENTUALLY SLIDING FARTHER OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ630>632-634-652-654-656-658. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ638. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...TMG SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG LONG TERM...BMD/JEF AVIATION...MAM MARINE...MAM

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