Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --000 FXUS61 KAKQ 222346 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 646 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT...WHILE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF COAST NORTHEAST TO JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE LOW WILL MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... CLDS WILL INCRS AND THICKEN FM SW TO NE TNGT IN ADVANCE OF LO PRES MOVNG FM THE FL PANHANDLE NE TO JUST OFF THE SE CST. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SATURATE MID/LO LVLS OF THE AIRMASS (SW-NE) OVR THE REGION...WITH MEASURABLE RAINFALL NOT MOVNG INTO THE SRN/SW CNTIES UNTIL LATER THIS EVENG. RAIN WILL THEN SPREAD ACRS THE REGION FM SW TO NE OVRNGT INTO MON MORNG. MIN TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LO PRES MOVES UP THE ERN SEABOARD MON THRU TUE. MOIST NE ONSHR FLO AHEAD OF THE LO WILL HELP TO PROVIDE A DECENT RAINFALL ACRS THE AREA DURING MON INTO ERLY MON EVENG (ESPLY LWR MD). QPF AMTS SHUD BE BETWEEN .25 INCH TO .50 INCH MOST AREAS...WITH HIER TOTALS POSSIBLE OVR THE SE. MAX TEMPS ON MON RANGING THRU THE 50S TO LWR 60S. LO PRES WILL MOVE FARTHER AWAY UP THE CST LATER MON NGT THRU TUE WITH WEAK SFC HI PRES OVR THE REGON TUE AND TUE NGT. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT A MSTLY CLDY OR CLDY SKY TO DOMINATE OUR WX DURING THIS PERIOD...AS FCST AREA REMAINS IN AN IN-SITU WEDGE SCENARIO WITH LO LVLS MOIST ARND 850-900MB AND BELOW. VRY LGT RAIN OR PATCHY DRIZZLE STILL POSSIBLE ESPLY TUE MORNG...AND PATCHY DRIZZLE POSSIBLE AGAIN ALL AREAS TUE NGT. LOWS MON NGT IN THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S. HIGHS ON TUE IN THE MID TO UPR 50S. GENERALLY MSTLY CLDY STILL ON WED WITH A SLGT CHC OF SHRAS IN THE AFTN/EVENG...AS A WEAK COLD FRNT APPROACHES FM THE W. MAX TEMPS IN THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... BY WED NGT/THANKSGIVING DAY...GFS/ECMWF NOW BOTH SHOW A FAIRLY WEAK SFC PRESSURE PATTERN ACRS THE MID ATLC...WITH A DEVELOPING SFC LOW MOVING UP THE SE COAST. THE LOW STRENGTHENS AS IT TRACKS NNE AND OFF THE VA CAPES/MID ATLC COAST THU NGT/FRI. CARRIED 20-40% CHANCES FOR SHWRS THANKSGIVING DAY AND NIGHT (HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE COAST). AFTER THAT...GFS/ECMWF HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE UPR LOW...NOW CLOSING IT OFF IN THE VICINITY OF THE REGION FRI/FRI NGT. STILL SOME DISCREPANCIES...WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS/ECMWF STILL KEEPING THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER VA (RATHER THAN THE CAROLINAS). GIVEN THIS TRACK...HAVE TRENDED THE FCST A BIT CLOUDIER AND ADDED 20-30% CHANCES FOR PRECIP FRI AFTN/EVENING FOR CNTRL AND NRN ZONES...BUT WILL KEEP THE SOUTH DRY. ADDED A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD CVR SAT (PTLY SUNNY) BUT OVERALL A COOL DRY PATTERN SHOULD PREVAIL W/ WESTERLY LOW LVL FLOW. HIGHS FRI/SAT...ARND 50 FAR NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH. DRY W/ A SLIGHT WARMING TREND SUNDAY AS RIDGING SLOWLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE E COAST FROM THE SW...HIGHS MID/UPR 50S. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF SCTD SHWRS CURRENTLY MVG NE ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL VA. ADDED TEMPO GROUP AT RIC FOR THIS REASON. OTHERWISE...THE BULK OF RAIN HAS MVD INTO THE CAROLINAS AHEAD OF AN UPR LOW CURRENTLY IN TN. THIS LOW WL REACH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH RAIN MVG INTO ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT SBY BY 09Z. PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CONDITIONS WL CONTINUE THROUGH MON WITH PERIODS OF IFR POSSIBLE EARLY MON MRNG ASSOCIATED WITH PATCHY FOG AND AREAS OF HEAVIER PCPN. THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN MOVES OUT MON EVNG BUT MOIST NRLY FLOW WL LIKELY KEEP IFR CIGS IN THE AREA INTO TUE. CONDS WL IMPROVE BY WED AS HI PRES SETTLES OVER THE AREA. THE NEXT CHC FOR PCPN AND LWR CIGS LOOKS TO BE THU AS A FNTL SYSTEM MVS ACRS THE AREA. DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW SHOULD BRING VFR CONDITIONS BACK ON FRI.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .MARINE... SEAS OVER THE CSTL WATERS ARE RISING FAST THIS EVENING AND HAVE BUMPED SEAS UP A FEW FEET...TO 5-7 FT S AND 6-8 FT NORTH. SCA HEADLINES ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL ZONES. MAIN STORY OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HRS WILL BE THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SE US COAST...AND A 1035+ MB HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER EAST/OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES W/ THE POSITION OF THE SFC HIGH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A SOMEWHAT WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT THAN THEY HAD SHOWN YSDY. WILL KEEP SCA HEADLINES FOR MON (NO GALES)...BUT IT MAY BE CLOSE AND ANTICIPATE A PERIOD OF AT LEAST 25 KT SUSTAINED WINDS ON THE COAST ALONG WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO FCST SEAS ABOUT 1-2 FT HIGHER THAN WAVEWATCH (UP TO 8-9 FT OFFSHORE NRN CSTL WATERS). WINDS TURN TO THE NNW AND SLOWLY DIMINISH LATER MON NGT AS THE LOW PUSHES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST...BUT SCA HEADLINES STAY UP THROUGH THE 4TH PERIOD/TUE AFTN FOR THE CSTL WATERS DUE TO RESIDUAL SWELL/SEAS 5 FT+. ANOTHER SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN OFF THE COAST FRI INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A STRG WNW FLOW EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS. && .EQUIPMENT... NWR TRANSMITTER AT WINDSOR NC IS DOWN ATTM. RETURN TO SERVICE TIME ISN`T YET KNOWN. SEE PNSAKQ FOR MORE INFORMATION. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...-- Changed Discussion --MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST MONDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ633. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654- 656-658.-- End Changed Discussion --&& $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...TMG SHORT TERM...TMG LONG TERM...LKB AVIATION...AM MARINE...LKB EQUIPMENT...AKQ
