Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 222134 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 534 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS 1005 MB SFC LOW ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF THE MD EASTERN SHORE...WITH A STACKED UPR LOW FOLLOWING SUIT AND TRACKING SLOW NE JUST OFFSHORE. BEST INSTABILITY REMAINS OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA...WHERE SOME TSTM ACTIVITY IS STILL ONGOING. ELSEWHERE...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BRING LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR...THOUGH THIS ACTIVITY HAS TRENDED WEAKER IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. STILL SEEING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS OUR SW ZONES...WHERE TEMPS WERE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE MID 60S. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT NE THRU TONIGHT... LOCATING OFF THE NJ COAST BY 12Z THU. WILL KEEP HIGH POPS ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES INTO THIS EVENING AS THE WRAP AROUND PCPN CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH. PCPN SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND LIGHTER ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR...WITH LIGHT RAIN BECOMING JUST DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES BEFORE ENDING AFTER SUNSET. BY LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...REMAINING CHC POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO FAR EASTERN VA AND ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN SHORE. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE SW...WITH SKY CONDITIONS BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE. REMAINING BREEZY TO WINDY ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY NE SECTIONS. LOWS IN THE LOW 40S WEST TO AROUND 50 AT THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... LOW PRESSURE TRACKS QUICKLY NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE OH VALLEY. PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES THURSDAY...ALLOWING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST WHERE GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH WILL OCCUR...15-25 MPH ELSEWHERE. A 20% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THE ERN SHORE...DRY ELSEWHERE. STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A COLD POOL ALOFT FOR SKIES TO AVG OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY NE TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60 ON THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE UPPER 60S FOR INTERIOR NE NC AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA. MOSTLY CLEAR SW TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE THU NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR MAINLY SUNNY CONDS...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND MILDER TEMPS. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 60S NE TO AROUND 70 F SW. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL SATURDAY FOR DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE UPR 60S TO LOW 70S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A WEAK TROUGH CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID 70S BY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER IN THE PERIOD. 22/12Z GFS/ECMWF EACH HAVE TRENDED SOMEWHAT WETTER AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE RATHER LIMITED. && .AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OFFSHORE AND SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE NE THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL AS MOISTURE PULLED FROM THE SOUTH IS WRAPPED AROUND THE STORM AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. DUE TO THE ADDED MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...SCATTERED POCKETS OF RAIN/SHOWERS WILL LAST THROUGH THE EVENING...ENDING THE LATEST OVER THE EASTERN SHORE. WITH THAT BEING SAID...THERE IS EVIDENCE OF DRIER AIR BEING PULLED INTO THE SYSTEM OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA WITH CEILINGS ~5K FT. EXPECT THIS DRIER AIR TO MAKE ITS WAY EAST AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT(~15-20KT) AND THU AFTN(~20-25KT) AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND A SURFACE HIGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT/THU MORNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE TN RIVER VALLEY. && .MARINE... LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON. A NNW WIND SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND AVERAGE 25-30KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40KT THROUGH THE EVENING (20-25KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT OVER THE RIVERS). SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 6-9FT N THROUGH S OUT NEAR 20NM...WITH 4-6FT SEAS NEARSHORE...AND 3-5FT WAVES IN THE BAY. THE LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY LIFT NE LATE TONIGHT AND REACHES A POSITION OFF OF CAPE COD THURSDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY EVENING. WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THIS TIME...BUT SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN SCA CRITERIA. THE GRADIENT FINALLY SLACKENS ENOUGH FOR SCA CONDITIONS TO SUBSIDE FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER BOUNDARY CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE EVENTUALLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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TIDAL DEPARTURES IN VICINITY OF OCEAN CITY INLET WILL AVERAGE AROUND 1.5FT ABOVE NORMAL DURING HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING AND THURSDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS OCEAN CITY INLET FALLING JUST BELOW MINOR THRESHOLDS THIS EVENING AND EXCEEDING MINOR DURING HIGH TIDE THURSDAY MORNING AS THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE WILL BE A FEW TENTHS HIGHER. WITH A NNW WIND...THE MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE ALONG THE SHORELINES OF ASSAWOMAN AND CHINCOTEAUGE BAYS...AND THE ADJACENT OCEAN INLETS.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>638. GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-656- 658. GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ633. GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB LONG TERM...AJZ AVIATION...DAP MARINE...AJZ TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AJZ

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