Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 301110 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 710 AM EDT Tue May 30 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Weak low pressure tracks across eastern North Carolina early this morning and off the Outer Banks by midday today. A cold front approaches from the northwest Wednesday and tracks across the Mid Atlantic Wednesday night. High pressure returns Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Weak surface low pressure is tracking along a stationary front across nrn NC early this morning and interacting with shortwave energy embedded within WSW flow aloft. Iso-sct showers extend from S-central VA to SE VA/NE NC, with stronger convection remaining S of the Albemarle Sound. The shortwave trough pushes offshore by midday. There will be some potential re-development of showers/tstms by later this aftn, but will only have a 20-30% PoP at this time given that clouds and onshore flow area likely to persist, which will hamper any destabilization this aftn. Temperatures early this morning are generally in the upper 50s to mid 60s N of the stationary front, with low 70s adjacent to the Albemarle Sound in NE NC. Highs today will struggle into the mid 60s along the immediate Atlantic coast of the Ern Shore, with upper 60s to low 70s elsewhere on the Ern Shore as clouds and onshore flow persist. Clouds may lift and scatter enough by aftn for highs to reach the upper 70s to around 80 for central/SE VA and NE NC, with low 80s over the Piedmont.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... An upper level trough will sharpen over the Great Lakes Wednesday pushing a cold front from the Ohio Valley into the Appalachians. 30/00z guidance has trended toward more convection Wednesday aftn due to the combination of increased low-level moisture an stronger SW flow aloft. PoPs have been increased but capped at 30-40% at this time. Otherwise, dry Tuesday night into Wednesday morning aside from some stratus and/or fog. Lows Tuesday night range through the 60s, followed by highs Wednesday in the upper 70s/around 80 at the coast to the mid 80s inland. The mid-level trough axis will shunt surface cold front across the area Wednesday night. 20-30% PoPs for showers/tstms will linger into the evening, mainly along and E of I-95. Post- frontal W-NW flow and surface high pressure building from the west should combine to yield a dry forecast late Wednesday night into Thursday. After early morning lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s, highs Thursday should rise in the low 80s inland, with mid to upper 70s for the Lower Ern Shore and along area beaches. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Another unsettled period ahead as the models show a frontal boundary stalling across the region next weekend with several waves of low pressure moving along it. This combined with upr level energy and a good low level moisture feed results in chc pops Late Friday through Sunday night, except likely Sat afternoon and evening as that seems to be the time frame of the most significant low. Data suggests locally heavy downpours with another widespread 1-2 inch rainfall psbl. Highs 80-85. Lows mid-upr 60s. Latest trends show the system moving offshore Mon with weak high pressure building into the region. Kept slght chc pops for now until better confidence of removing pops. Cooler with highs 75-80. && .AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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The current surface analysis places high pressure over New England with a stationary front over nrn NC. IFR stratus has spread over most of the area with onshore flow N of the frontal boundary. As of 11z, only ECG did not have IFR stratus as it remains on the warm-side of the boundary. A shortwave trough tracking over the area is producing iso-sct showers, which will have little impact on cig/vsby. Cigs are expected to lift in the wake of this trough by around 16z, with IFR persisting the longest at SBY, potentially through 18z. A few additional showers/tstms may develop later this aftn into early evening, but the chc is only 20-30% at this time. The stationary front dissipates tonight as a cold front pushes into the Ohio Valley. There is a potential for stratus and/or fog tonight into early Wednesday. The cold front will push across the region Wednesday night, with a chc of showers/tstms Wednesday aftn/evening ahead of the front. High pressure builds over the area Thursday and slides offshore Friday. Another cold front approaches from the northwest Saturday bringing a chc of showers/tstms.
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&& .MARINE... Latest surface analysis centers high pressure over Long Island, ridging southward along the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic coasts. A frontal boundary remains over the southern local area with a weak area of low pressure over the Virginia Piedmont. The result is onshore flow of 10-15 knots early this morning. Few gusts to around 20 knots observed in the coastal waters and mouth of the bay. Seas average 3 feet in the southern waters to 4-5 feet in the northern coastal waters. Buoy 44009 has built as high as 6 feet. Seas in the north are running above guidance due to persistent onshore flow and swell. High pressure slides offshore today as the area of low pressure tracks along the front across North Carolina. Onshore flow of 10-15 knots persist. Swell and winds keep seas in the northern coastal waters around 4-5 feet today, so SCA headlines have been extended through the afternoon. Waves 1-2 feet, up to 3 feet in the mouth of the Bay. Low pressure lifts just offshore as another weakening cold front reaches central Virginia tonight. Flow becomes light and generally offshore. Seas subside to 2-3 feet. A more pronounced cold front approaches the region Wednesday as southerly winds increase to 10-15 knots Wednesday. The front pushes across the waters late Wednesday night. Height rises and modest cold advection behind the front could result in a period of SCA conditions late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Northwest winds diminish Thursday afternoon as high pressure builds in from the west. High pressure slides offshore Thursday night/Friday with flow returning to the south. The next front crosses the waters Saturday night. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Onshore flow/swell and high astronomical tides have resulted in elevated water levels along the Atlantic coast and in the Bay and tidal rivers. Tidal departures are around 1 foot. A coastal flood advisory remains in effect for the tidal areas surrounding Bishops Head early this morning. While tidal departures are expected to remain around 1 foot through Wednesday night (ahead of an approaching cold front) lower astronomical tides are expected to keep levels below minor flooding thresholds. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for MDZ021>023. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ650- 652.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM NEAR TERM...AJZ SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM LONG TERM...MPR AVIATION...AJZ MARINE...SAM TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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