Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 200156 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 956 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will linger just offshore and south of the region through tonight. High pressure builds into the region late tonight through early next week. The next cold front will impact the region on Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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ISOLD convection invof coastal NE NC has waned...but watching tstms moving across nrn VA associated w/ secondary cold (more like a dew point) front settling SE. Near term models keep convection N of the FA while slowly weakening as that boundary pushes S overnight. Otherwise...mainly SKC w/ light winds. A drop in dew points expected by late at night. Kept patchy fog out of the forecast...though would not be surprised to have some...esp where recent rainfall has been excessive (i.e., on the ern shore). Lows in the u60 NW to the l-m70s S and E.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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For Sunday...High pressure builds back into the region for Sunday allowing for dry conditions and mostly sunny skies for much of the region. Highs will range from the mid to upper 80s along the coast to around 90 degrees inland. Sunday night begins with high pressure centered just north of the area across MD and PA. This will provide a quiet evening with generally light e to se flow. Will see a little return of Atlantic moisture but overall expect dry weather mostly clear conditions. Temperatures should cool a little more than in recent days with low in the upper 60s to the lower 70s. The area of high pressure slides off the coast on Monday and the flow turns se to s, which will allow some additional moisture to return to the area. The orographic lift will allow some convection to form along the Blue Ridge and Appalachian mountains. Some of this convection could slide newd off the higher terrain and impact portions of the Piedmont counties later on Monday afternoon and evening so have continued the slight chance pops. But most areas should be dry due to a lack of lift and little mid level moisture. Temperatures should begin to climb with most areas getting back up into the lower 90s. Monday night into Tuesday expect mainly dry weather as well, but the humidity will still be there as the southerly flow continues. Lows during the overnight hours should be in the low to mid 70s and the highs on Tuesday should be a little warmer again with highs still in the low to mid 90s. The southeastern portion of the cwa would have the best chance for an isolated shower as some Atlantic moisture lifts newd into NE NC and the VA Tidewater.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Stacked high pressure resides off the Southeast Coast as a pre-frontal trough develops ahead of an approaching cold front and in the lee of the mts Tue night. Overall, Tue night should be dry with isolated showers/storms possibly sneaking into the far wrn Piedmont and/or MD Lower Eastern Shore invof the developing trough. Warm and humid overnight with lows in the low-mid 70s. The cold front tracks through the area on Wed... exiting the coast by Thu morning. Thunderstorms expected to become more organized as the front provides better focus for lift/development. Lingering showers/storms possible far SE VA/NE NC on Thu, although they should taper off from NW to SE as the front moves farther southeast and away from the area. Otherwise, cool Canadian high pressure builds across the Midwest into the ern Great Lakes Thu-Sat with dry conditions anticipated during this timeframe. Highs Wed generally upper 80s to lower 90s (mid 80s beaches). Highs Thu-Sat lower 80s (mid 70s beaches). Lows Wed night mid-upper 60s NW to 70-74F SE. Lows Thu/Fri nights around 60F NW to around 70F SE. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... ISOLD tstms invof KECG continuing weaken...otherwise VFR conditions over the region. Potential patchy/occasional MVFR fog...mainly after 06Z/20...at the typical fog-prone locations (SBY/ECG/PHF). All fog should quickly dissipate after sunrise. After that...VFR conditions through Monday as sfc hi pres builds back into the region. There will once again be the potential for some patchy fog early on Monday morning. The next cold front approaches the region late Tue and into Wed. Sub-VFR conditions and showers/thunderstorms will be possible Wed. && .MARINE... Benign conditions through Sun with light/variable winds aob 10kt. Winds become more onshore Sun night into Mon (remaining aob 10kt) as a front near the Mid Atlantic Coast washes out/weakens. Seas average 2ft; waves 1-2ft. South winds Mon night-Tue night with stacked high pressure off the Southeast Coast and a thermal trough developing in the lee of the mts Tue night. A surge in winds is anticipated Tue night into Wed morning ahead of an approaching cold front. Speeds could reach 15-20kt Bay/ocean with seas building to 3-4ft north and 2-3ft south; waves building to 2-3ft. SCA flags may be possible for these areas in this timeframe. The next cold front is expected to cross the region during Wed and exit the coast by Thu morning. Winds N-NE aob 15kt behind front Wed aftn/evening through Sat. Seas 2-3ft/waves 1-3ft. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJB NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...ESS LONG TERM...BMD AVIATION...ALB MARINE...BMD

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