Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 240138 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 938 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front approaches the region from the northwest tonight. The remnants of Tropical Depression Cindy will cross the region with the cold front on Saturday. The front then stalls farther south off the Carolinas Sunday and Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING/... Latest MSAS has the Bermuda high off the coast with the remnant low of Cindy moving ne from eastern KY. Latest data continues to track this low ne across nrn VA / MD late tonight then move quickly ne into New England by Sat afternoon. Not real impressed with the prospects for heavy rain with this feature as even the high res data suggests all the best forcing and moisture is along and north of the track. AKQ fa left in a warm and humid airmass with only sct pcpn. Thus, adjusted grids a bit with the emphasis of highest pops (low end likely) across northern most zones from about 10Z-15Z. Chc pops farther south. Kept thunder chcs in across northern most zones (closest to the track) but lowered to slght chc across central sections expecting any convection to be elevated. Dry across the SE through about 12Z with only slght chc pops Sat morning there. QPF under one quarter inch for the most part. Decent low level jet keeps it breezy at times with SW winds avgg 10-20 mph. Lows in the 70s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY/... Overall trend of 12z suite has been towards a more progressive solution with the front and frontal wave (remnants of TD). Behind this feature, models are in good agreement with shearing the precip apart Saturday morning. Meanwhile, an upper trough over the Midwest will slowly dig south and help to push the front east across the area...as the Bermuda High also retreats to the east. Maintained 40-60% rain chances over the coastal plain during this period for the afternoon and evening...and into the overnight hours Sunday morning, as sct convection develops as the front gets hung up across the SE Coast into the Carolinas Sat afternoon and evening. Warm and muggy yet again with highs Saturday generally in the upper 80s to around 90. Cooler, drier air filters in from the northwest behind the front for Sat night and Sunday, bringing a pleasant end to the weekend wx-wise. Lows Saturday night in the low- mid 60s far NW, upper 60s inland, lower 70s SE. Dewpoints lower 60s NW to lower 70s SE. Lingering spotty convection along the Albemarle Sound will come to an end Sunday morning with the rest of the area remaining dry. A much more comfortable afternoon and evening Sunday, with highs in the mid 80s (lower 80s beaches), and dewpoints in the upper 50s NW to mid 60s SE. Comfortable sleeping weather Sunday night with lows in the upper 50s NW to upper 60s SE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Long term period will feature generally dry wx with slightly below normal temps on avg. For Sun night/Mon, aforementioned cold front pushes farther offshore leading to light NW flow and decreasing clouds. After low temps in the 60s Sun night, expect high temps in the low/mid 80s Mon. Another cold front crosses the area Mon night, but the fropa should be dry due to a lack of moisture. Cooler temps then for Tue with highs only in the mid/upr 70s most areas. Sfc high pres builds directly over the area Tue night/Wed behind a mid-level trough pushing offshore. Dry again for Thu as the high slides offshore allowing for S/SW to develop across the Mid Atlc and temps to max out in the mid 80s. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions to start the forecast period as Bermuda high pressure has prevented any convection from developing today. Gusty SW winds at 15-20 KTS continue due to a fairly decent low level jet. In fact, data suggests a few hours of LLWS at SBY after midnight. The remnant circulation of Cindy is progged to track across northern Va late tonight and Sat morning with a trailing cold front crossing the area during the day. Latest data suggests the best support and steadiest pcpn with this feature falls north of the track leaving AKQ fa in a warm and hunmid airmass with only sct shwrs. Thus, went ahead with VCSH both at RIC / SBY between 10-13Z for now. Although some elevated convection is possible at this time, kept thunder out of the forecast. The cold front progged to settle across sern VA / ne NC Sat afternoon. Models suggest sct convection develops along it but not widespread enough to include at any one TAF site attm. Elected to go with a BKN CU deck around 5K ft. Outlook: VFR conditions expected early next week as high pressure builds back into the region. && .MARINE... No significant changes to the marine forecast this evening. SCA hazards continue as planned for tonight into Sat as the pres gradient tightens ahead of an approaching cold front. Expect winds to incrase later tonight to mainly 15-20 kt over all waterst, gusting up to 25-30 kt over the ocean where seas will increase to 5-7 ft out 20 nm. Winds decrease as the front slides through the area Sat afternoon, so all headlines will end during the day Sat, with the last ones being the northern cstl waters for seas around 5 ft. Little in the way of CAA behind the front, so anticipate winds mainly aob 10 kt on Sun and Mon, with 1-2 ft waves over the Bay and 2-3 ft seas over cstl waters. Another cold front crosses the region Mon night, but again CAA is weak following the front so expected sub-SCA conditions. Sfc high pres returns for the middle of next week. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ633- 635>638-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ632-634- 654. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ650-652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...MAM LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...MPR MARINE...MAS/JAO

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