Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 200610 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 110 AM EST Tue Feb 20 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front lifts north of the area This morning. High pressure becomes anchored off the southeast coast later today through Wednesday bringing a return to well above normal temperatures. A backdoor cold front moves into the Mid Atlantic region through the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Have added Dense Fog Advy over SW counties (Lunenburg to Brunswick). As front advances north, expect widespread fog to develop over the next few hours and persist through the AM rush. Expansion in area for DFA is possible in the next few hours, most likely along and west of 95 and across SE zones. Marine dense fog continues over the waters overnight. Sfc warm front found from coastal NE NC SW to far interior NC/SC/nrn GA then back N to wrn PA this eve. Lingering CAD remains over much of the local area. Some movement N of the warm front expected overnight...leading to increase in dew points and the potential for patchy/areas of FG/DZ. Raised dense FG advisory for the waters due to the rise in dew points over the colder waters. Lows in the u40s-l50s...though readings may rise some overnight. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... Low clouds/patchy fog will be slow to erode Tues morning. Think clouds will break up/scour out by noon. Strong sfc high offshore becomes the dominate "bermuda" high. Thus, with rising H5 heights and H85 temps, temps will rise into the 70s Tue except in the 60s at the beaches. Not quite to record highs Tue but feeling spring- like nonetheless. Mild Tues night with lows in the 50s. Warmest day will be Wed where record highs will likely fall across the region. Dry with highs 75-80, except 60s at the beaches. A backdoor cold front approaches from the north Wed night and progged to be near the northern AKQ zones by 12Z Thu. Moisture increases along and ahead of this feature but is a bit slower than previous models had. Will carry low chc pops across the nrn half of the fa late Wed night. Lows 50-55 north. 55-60 South. The front is slow to move south and is progged to only get to central Virginia by 00Z Fri. Cooler with chc to likely pops across the north, warmer with low chc pops across the south. Temps tricky and will all depend on the frontal position. Highs mid-upr 50s lwr Md eastern shore...60s over most of the area with 70s across NC. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Expect more chcs for rain showers in the extended period, Althoughabove normal temps will prevail acrs the area. Frontal boundary just south of the area Thu night, will gradually lift back north as a warm front later Fri into Fri night, providing a 20-40% chc of showers. That boundary will be just north of the CWA during Sat, as a cold front starts to push into the OH/TN valley. Will have slgt chc to chc Pops, mainly nrn and wrn counties. Chcs for showers will then increase fm the NW Sat night into Sun, as the cold front approaches and pushes into the region. Expecting mainly dry wx Sun night and Mon, as the front pushes out to sea and high pressure builds into and over the area. Highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s Fri, mainly in the mid 60s to lower 70s Sat and Sun, and in the upper 50s to lower 60s Mon. Lows will range thru the 40s to near 50 Thu night, in the upper 40s to mid 50s Fri night, in the 50s Sat night, and in the mid 40s to lower 50s Sun night. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Poor Aviation conditions this morning, as a steady stream of moisture continues to overspread the region ahead of an approaching warm front. Further deterioration of IFR/LIFR conditions across terminals is expected, with only slow improvement expected through the morning. A warm front will lift north of the region later this morning, slowly drying out the upr levels while the lwr levels will be slow to scour out. Thus, CIGS will be slow to rise into MVFR range by or shortly after 15Z Tue, with VFR conditions not expected to return until mid to late afternoon into the early evening. Outlook... A back door cold front approaches from the NW Wed night then drops south across the area on Thu. Expect a return to IFR/MVFR conditions in rain/fog Thu/Fri behind this feature. && .MARINE... No headlines in the short term tonight thru Wed. A warm front will lift north of the area by Tue morning. Then, sfc high pressure will be anchored well off the Mid Atlc coast Tue into Wed night. This will provide sub-SCA SSW flow tonight into Wed night, with waves generally 1-2 ft on the Bay, and seas 2-3 ft on the ocean. With winds remaining below SCA criteria, will need to monitor for marine fog, esply tonight thru Wed, as dew points increase into the 50s. Back door cold front then drops acrs the region during Thu, turning winds to the N/NE (10-15 kt most areas) into Fri. The front then lifts back north as a warm front later Fri, and will move north of the region Fri night. Waves/seas will increase Thu into Fri. && .CLIMATE... Another round of record highs will possibly be challenged Tue 2/20 and Wed 2/21: * Record highs: * Date: Tue 2/20 Wed 2/21 * RIC: 77 (1930) 75 (1930) * ORF: 77 (1991) 79 (2014) * SBY: 75 (1930) 75 (1943) * ECG: 78 (1991) 77 (2014) && .EQUIPMENT... KAKQ radar will be down until further notice with an antenna pedestal issue. See FTMAKQ for more details. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for VAZ065-066- 079. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ630>638- 650-652-654-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MAM SHORT TERM...JDM/MPR LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...MPR MARINE...TMG CLIMATE... EQUIPMENT...

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