Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 011054 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 654 AM EDT Sat Oct 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A complex area of low pressure will track north across the Mid Atlantic region today with its trailing cold front moving offshore late tonight. High pressure builds across the region early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Updated grids to increase pops across erh half of fa based on latest radar trends and high res data. Added thunder chcs to SERN zones as well. Appears any synpotic features will be slow to move east next 6-8 hrs with the slug of Atlantic moisture riding north ahead of the frontal boundary. This will keep areas along and east of I95 cloudy with ocnl shwrs thru the morning hrs. Still expect some clrg from the sw this afternoon. PVS DSCN: Latest MSAS showing low prs ivof DAN with frontal boundaries extending east along the border to near ORF and southeast to near ILM. Models are somewhat slower with the systems movement today. The low will slowly make its way across the VA piedmont with the trailing front crawling toward the coast. Data supports drier air filtering in behind the low, but plenty of moisture noted to keep pops going through the day along and east of I95. Temps/sky coverage rather tricky as TSCTNS indicate skies becoming pt sunny after 18Z along and west of I95 while it remains mstly cloudy most of the day along the coast, becoming pt sunny toward the coast late. Best support fo pcpn (best plume of Atlantic moisture) shifts toward the coast this afternoon so will keep likely pops there. Kept likely pops early west of the Bay based on current radar trends as addntl shwrs develop ahead of the low. Given crnt temps in the upr 60s to lwr 70s, it won`t take much heating for temps to rise into the upr 70s-lwr 80s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... More of the same tonite as the low continues to slowly drift north with the trailing cold front gradually moving offshore after midnight. Chc pops will be maintained along the coast under mstly cldy skies as another piece of energy works its way north ahead of the frontal boundary. Mstly clr to pt cldy across the piedmont. Patchy fog possible in areas that do sct out across the west. Lows range from the upr 50s nwrn most zones where some lwr dew point temps will occur to the upr 60s along coastal sections. Yet another piece of energy rides north along the boundary just offshore on Sun. Enough lagging energy to keep chc pops going along coastal sections into Sun evening before the boundary moves further away from the coast. Dry across the piedmont. Highs Sun in the upr 70s to lwr 80s. Lows Sun nite in the upr 50s to mid 60s. Finally a dry day Mon under pt to mstly sunny skies as high prs builds into the area. Highs in the upr 70s to lwr 80s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The long term period will see a return of an onshore flow that prevailed during much of the past week. a stationary front will be situated well off the Mid Atlantic Coast with a strong surface high over southeast Canada rebuilding over the Eastern Seaboard. Upper level ridging will slowly breakdown during the week as a strong upper level trough moves across the Northern Great Plains. There will be 20 to 40 percent chances for showers especially over eastern portions of the area with highest chances Wednesday through Thursday night. Hurricane Matthew may influence portions of the area late in the week. Although the track is is expected that its greatest impact will be in the marine area. Check with the National Hurricane Center for updates and details. High temperatures are forecast to range through the 70s with Tuesday likely being the warmest day. Low temperatures will generally be in the 60s. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Based on latest radar trends of more showers developing ahead of the front, went ahead with a prevailing VCSH with a TEMPO group for lower CIGS/VSBYS in shwrs. TSRA was added to ORF per latest LTG strikes. Expect IFR/MVFR CIGS this morning with fog/stratus slowly burning off. Improving CIGS excepted all areas by 18Z as the lower levels dry a bit. Shwrs are likely ivof ORF thru abt 18Z and SBY abt 21Z. Areas of fog will likely develop toward the end of the fcst period with lcl IFR possible where skies clr. OUTLOOK...VFR conditions expected into early next week except for lower VSBYS in early morning fog given the wet ground and longer nites. && .MARINE... Latest sfc analysis shows a complex area of weak low pressure over the Carolinas/southern VA, with strong high pressure centered over SE Canada/northern New England. Associated onshore flow continues this morng, and with prolonged easterly fetch over the ocean, seas are continuing around 5-6 ft out 20 nm. Will end the sca over southern marine zones at 7 am, while it will likely take until late this evening for seas to drop below 5 ft over northern coastal waters. Winds aob 15kt today, shifting to a more southerly component late in the day as another area of low pressure slides ne through the OH Valley. Sfc hi pressure then builds in from the north early next week, with sca conditions likely to return by midweek as the high strengthens and Hurricane Matthew slides north off the SE coast. Still a lot of uncertainty regarding Matthew`s storm track at this time, but the general trend will be for increasing onshore winds and continually building seas for the second half of next week. && .HYDROLOGY... River flooding continues across the primary rivers of the Lower MD Eastern Shore due to recent heavy rainfall, mainly the Pocomoke and Nanticoke. This flooding will likely continue through today based on latest levels and EM reports. See the latest flood statements (FLWAKQ/FLSAKQ) for more details. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Coastal flood advisories are in effect for all coastal areas except VA Beach/Outer Banks Currituck through the next high tide cycle (late this morning through the afternoon). Strong/anomalous sfc high pressure remains over sern Canada before weakening this aftn as stacked low pressure over the Midwest drifts north and slightly east during this same timeframe. This will translate into onshore/se winds transitioning to more southerly (and decreasing) later today. As the winds shift and decrease, tidal anomalies will decrease incrementally by a few tenths of a foot with each passing high tide cycle. The surf zone forecast has ended for the season. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for MDZ024-025. Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for MDZ021>023. NC...None. VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for VAZ084>086-089-090-093-095>097-523>525. Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for VAZ099-100. Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for VAZ075>078. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ650- 652-654. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...LSA AVIATION...MPR MARINE...MAS HYDROLOGY...ESS / MPR TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MAS is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.