Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 162050 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 450 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY WEAKENS OFF THE COAST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE ERN CONUS THIS AFTERNOON...DOWNSTREAM OF A RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AT THE SURFACE...1022MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER IL...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A SUBTLE UPPER DISTURBANCE IS CROSSING THE GREAT SMOKIES THIS AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NC OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD TRIGGER A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...COVERAGE SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SPREAD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. SKY COVER SHOULD AVERAGE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY...ALTHOUGH THE LOWER MD ERN SHORE COULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S N...TO THE LOW/MID 60S SE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A STRONGER SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARD NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OFF THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN IT GRADUALLY WEAKENS THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS OVERALL PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE NE FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH VARIABLE CLOUDS TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS SRN PORTIONS...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS FAR NRN PORTIONS. NOT MUCH FORCING IS EXPECTED...SO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...A 15-20% POP (30% NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND) WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THURSDAY OVER FAR SRN/SE VA AND NE NC TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY SHOWERS DRIFTING N FROM ERN NC. FORECAST POPS ARE SUB 15% THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE LOW WEAKENS OFF THE COAST. HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE THROUGH 70S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S N...TO LOW 60S SE...WITH LOW/MID 50S N TO LOW 60S SE FRIDAY MORNING. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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MAINLY GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT LEANING TOWARD THE GFS FOR LATE MON THRU TUE. MAIN CNTR OF HI PRES WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN ATLC FRI NGT INTO SAT NGT...WITH A WEAKER PIECE OF THE HI REMAINING OVR THE MID ATLC STATES THRU MUCH OF SUN. NE-E WINDS EXPECTED FM FRI NGT INTO SAT MORNG...THEN WINDS TURN FM SE TO SSW FOR SAT AFTN THRU SUN. MAINLY DRY WX WILL PREVAIL THRU SUN WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TEMPS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUN NGT AND MON...BRINGING A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS. THAT FRONT WILL SLOWLY SINK TO OFF THE SE CST MON NGT AND TUE...AS HI PRES BLDS INTO THE GRT LKS AND OH VLY. WILL HAVE A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS OVR THE SE COUNTIES ON TUE. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 50S INTO THE LWR 60S SAT MORNG...RANGE FM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SUN MORNG...RANGE THRU THE 60S MON MORNG...AND RANGE FM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S TUE MORNG. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPR 70S SAT...RANGE FM THE MID 70S TO LWR 80S SUN AND MON...AND GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID 70S TUE.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTN WITH SCT/BKN CU AND WINDS SHIFTING TO THE N/NE. FOR TONIGHT...A WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACRS THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT INTO WED. SHOULD SEE VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS EVENING TREND TOWARDS OVC IN SE VA/NE NC AND BKN FARTHER NORTH. NE FLOW/MAINLY OVC WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN FAR SE VA/NE NC WED...(MOST LIKELY FOR KECG). STILL ONLY LOOKS LIKE CIGS DROPPING TO 2-3 K FT/MVFR CIGS FOR THE MOST PART THOUGH. GENLY BKN VFR SKIES AT KRIC/KSBY. OUTLOOK... HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND THU-SAT...WITH A SOMEWHAT BREEZY 10-20 KT OF NE FLOW CONTINUING AT KORF/KECG. OVERALL STILL EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IN THIS PATTERN BUT PROBABLY TOO MUCH MIXING AND OVERNIGHT CLOUDINESS FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG. FYI...ISSUES HAVE JUST BEEN CLEARED WITH THE SBY ASOS...SO WILL GET RID OF THE "AMD NOT SKED" TO END OF SBY TAF. && .MARINE...
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NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TNGT THRU THU. N OR NE-E WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE WTRS TNGT THRU SAT...DUE TO ONE AREA OF HI PRES BLDNG BY TO THE N AND OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST...FOLLOWED BY A LARGER AREA OF HI PRES BLDNG FM THE GRT LKS EWRD AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST. WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ARND 15 KT OR LESS THRU THE PERIOD...BUT COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER (ESPLY GUSTS) FRI AND FRI NGT. THIS COULD ALSO CAUSE SEAS TO BLD TO 5 FT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WINDS TURN TO SE THEN SSW FOR SAT NGT AND SUN...AS HI PRES WEAKENS AND A COLD FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH FM THE W.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB NEAR TERM...AJZ SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...LKB MARINE...TMG

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