Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 241901 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 201 PM EST Sat Feb 24 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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A weak backdoor cold front will drop into central Virginia and the Eastern Shore this evening. This front will lift back north as a warm front later tonight into Sunday as high pressure prevails off the Southeast coast. A cold front crosses the Mid Atlantic Sunday night and settles across North Carolina Monday. High pressure returns by Tuesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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A weak boundary remains over the far nrn tier of the area early this aftn from near LKU to CGE, with onshore flow along the MD coast. Temperatures range from 75 to near 80F from central VA to SE VA and NE NC, with mid/upper 50s across the far nrn tier of the area, and even upper 40s at the MD coast. An area of showers continues to pass across the far nrn tier VA counties of the CWA. RAP/HRRR continue to show these showers passing across the area with PoPs ranging from near 30% from RIC-WAL and 60-70% across the far nrn tier of the area. This should continue through the evening as the boundary actually pushes swd to near RIC this evening. The ridge off the Southeast coast builds back nwd tonight with the front returning nwd as a warm front. Low temperatures range from near 50F in vicinity of the front to the mid/upper 50s for srn VA and NE NC.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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A cold front approaches from the W Sunday morning. This front should be slow to cross the area given the strength of the ridge, so have opted for an evening frontal passage, although 24/12z model consensus suggests that thicker mid/high clouds arrive over the Piedmont during the aftn, which could have some impact on high temperatures. Nevertheless, still very warm Sunday with high temperatures in the low/mid 70s over the Piedmont, upper 70s to low 80s for s-central/SE VA and NE NC, with low/mid 70s over the Ern Shore, and locally mid/upper 60s for the MD Beaches. See the climate section for recored highs. The best upper level forcing lifts well N of the area, so PoPs at this time are limited to 20-40% ahead of and along the front. Forecast soundings do depict some steeper lapse rates within the 850-700mb layer, but rather stable above that layer, Given this, have not included any thunder at this time. The cold front drops across the area Sunday night and settles over NC Monday. A secondary area of low pressure tracks along the front along with some mid-level energy and this is expected to bring a period of light rain mainly across srn VA/NE NC (60-80% PoPs) overnight Sunday night through midday Monday. Cooler behind the front, but still above normal with lows Sunday night in the upper 40s N to mid 50s S. Highs Monday in the upper 50s to around 60F, but these values could fall during the day, especially SE. 1030mb high pressure builds in from the NW Monday night. Mostly clear, and actually almost seasonably cool with overnight low temperatures in the mid 30s N to low 40s SE. High pressure remains in vicinity of the Mid-Atlantic coast Tuesday. Sunny with high temperatures moderating into the mid/upper 50s over the Ern Shore to the low 60s farther inland.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The cold front pushes offshore with some lingering shwrs along the se coast Mon eve. Pt cldy/cooler. Lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s. High pressure over the area Tue shifts offshore Tue nite and Wed. Dry thru 18Z Wed with isltd shwrs psbl across the Piedmont Wed aftrn as moisture returns from the SW. Highs Tue mid 50s-lwr 60s. Lows Tue nite 40-45. Highs Wed upr 50s-mid 60s. Low pressure moves NE into the Gt Lakes region mid week with the advancing warm front lifting north across the region Wed nite and trailing cold front Thurs. Models show a decent moisture feed into the systm from the sw so will carry likely pops (shwrs) for both periods. Kept thunder out of forecast as that will depend on the actual timing of the cold frontal passage. Lows Wed nite mid 40s-lwr 50s. Highs Thu upr 50s- upr60s. Chc pops Thu nite as upr level systm is slow to track across the nrn Mid Atlantic region. Lows in the 40s. Cyclonic flow Fri will usher in a drier/cooler airmass but shwrs linger across the ern shore as the upr level systm slowly pulls offshore. Highs in the 50s to near 60 se. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Conditions have improved early this aftn as a warm front has lifted through much of the area, including SBY where the cig has lifted to MVFR. This front is expected to drop swd as a backdoor cold front this aftn and evening resulting in IFR cigs returning to SBY along with the potential for -ra. The front is expected to reach about as far S as RIC this evening with the potential for -ra and MVFR cigs. The remainder of the TAF sites are expected to remain VFR in the warm sector tonight, with only some patchy stratus late tonight and early Sunday. The front will return N as a warm front late tonight into Sunday morning as a cold front approaches from the NW. Sct-bkn mid and high clouds are expected later Sunday morning into the aftn with a 10-15kt SW wind gusting to 20-25kt, and a 20-40% chc of showers later in the aftn. The cold front crosses the region Sunday evening with the potential for cig/vsby restrictions along with periods of light rain overnight Sunday through midday Monday. High pressure arrives Monday night and Tuesday bringing drier conditions to the area. High pressure slides offshore Wednesday with a low pressure system and associated cold front impacting the region Wednesday night into Thursday. && .MARINE...
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As of 2 pm, will be maintaining marine fog advisory north of Parramore Island on the Atlantic side thru 7pm, but have cancelled it north of Windmill Pt on the Ches Bay as the fog has dissipated. Otherwise, offshore high and SSW winds dominate into tonight, except north where another backdoor cold front will sag south into the northern waters (winds will shift to the ENE in these areas). Front lifts back N early Sun morning with a breezy SW flow on Sunday. Expect the warm airmass over cold water inversion to keep mixing limited, but still may see some gusts to around 20 kt during the day over much of the area. Marginal SCAs are possible, especially Bay and lower James, but low confidence will preclude issuance at this time. The next cold front crosses the waters Sun night with a wind shift back to the N-NE for Mon. No real CAA surges noted behind the front, so kept winds/seas below SCA levels, but will probably have a few hrs worth of elevated winds early Monday behind the front, and again Mon night/early Tue as sfc high pressure builds into the area from the WNW. High pressure centers over the marine area Tuesday before pushing offshore again late Wednesday. Sub-SCA conditions should continue thru midweek.
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&& .CLIMATE... Very warm temperatures will return today and especially Sunday, Record highs are listed for today/Sat 2/24. For Sun 2/25, both record highs and record high mins are listed: * Record Highs........Record Highs/Rec High Mins * Site: Sat 2/24......Sun 2/25 * RIC: 82 (1985).....83 (1930)...54 (1930) * ORF: 82 (2012).....81 (2017)...59 (1930) * SBY: 77 (2012).....80 (1930)...52 (1930) * ECG: 79 (1985).....78 (2017)...54 (1985) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ650-652.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAS NEAR TERM...AJZ SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAS LONG TERM...AJB/MPR AVIATION...AJZ MARINE...JDM CLIMATE...AKQ

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