Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KAKQ 280141
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
941 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016
Strong high pressure will remain off the southeast coast through
the end of the week with a weak frontal boundary lingering over
the area through Thursday. This boundary will lift north to
around the Mason Dixon line on Friday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Heat Advisory continues for southern/SE portions of the area until
8 PM this evening. Current conditions show HI values AOA 105
degrees for most of this area. Also watching tstms this afternoon
which have developed across the eastern Piedmont and also along
the Ches Bay/Eastern shore. So far this activity has been widely
scattered with partly to mostly sunny conditions for much of the
area. Will hold onto chc pops (30-50%) for most locations through
the evening with a weak/diffuse frontal boundary nearby and also
outflow boundaries around from ongoing convection. The threat for
severe wx remains low (marginal risk) given weak shear profiles.
However, the strongest storms will be capable of frequent
lightning and heavy rain. Tstms will tend to wane by late evening
and overnight but will maintain slight chc pops with the weak
frontal boundary nearby. Warm and humid tonight with lows in the
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The weak frontal boundary begins to lift north of the area on
Thursday and should be located across our northern counties
Thursday afternoon. This feature in combination with a developing
lee trough and a disturbance passing overhead late in the day will
lead to the development of scattered aftn/eve thunderstorms,
especially north. SPC has most of our area in a Slight Risk given
the better shear (30kt) that develops and decent thermodynamics.
Main concerns will be for large hail, localized damaging wind
gusts and heavy rain. In addition...increased low level
thicknesses/H85 temps across central/southern areas support a
little hotter temps. This in combination with dew pts in the mid
70s will result in high heat index values again. Will have a heat
advisory for most areas east/south of RIC to the Ches Bay. Highs
in the low to mid 90s.
By Thursday night and Friday the aforementioned weak boundary
washes out near the Mason-Dixon line and we`ll wait for the next
cold front to approach from the north by late Friday. A potent
shortwave is also expected to cross the area late Thursday night
into midday Friday and will be the focus for additional
shwrs/tstms. Will have high chc to likely pops (40-60%) across
northern areas through Friday afternoon with lower chances S-SE
(farther removed from the best support). Cannot rule out the
potential for some heavy rain given PWs in excess of 2". However,
there`s too much uncertainty at this time to warrant a flash flood
watch. Not as hot across the north Friday given the added cloud
cover and convection. Highs Friday from the upr 80s north to the
mid 90s south. May need another heat advisory south. Lows Thursday
night in the 70s.
The next cold front washes out across the area Saturday and may
touch of additional convection. Pops were placed at (30-40%) for
the afternoon. Highs from the upr 80s north to the low 90s south.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The extended period will feature more normal temps for this time
of year, but there will be decent chances for showers and tstms
thru Mon. A frontal boundary will slowly drop acrs the region Sat
ngt into Tue morning, with the highest POPs (40-50%) Sat ngt into
Mon morning. The POPs will decrease fm N to S later Mon thru Tue,
with most of the area dry later Tue thru Wed, as high pressure
blds in fm the NNE. Max temps will generally range fm the mid 80s
to near 90, with min temps ranging fm the upr 60s to mid 70s.
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --As of 01z...Scattered thunderstorms generally avoided the TAF sites
late Wednesday. Some showers are still possible across southern
portions of the area including RIC through Midnight. Winds will be
light and variable through the 00Z TAF period and will be dependent
on the location of various boundaries. A stationary was oriented
east to west north of the area and should move little during the
next 24 hours.
MVFR fog is mentioned at SBY RIC and PHF around sunrise but
conditions are not favorable for IFR. Scattered thunderstorms are
expected once again late Thursday.
OUTLOOK...The main impact during the outlook period will be a
continuation in the pattern of scattered late day and evening
thunderstorms through Monday.
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No headlines in the short term tngt thru Fri. Frontal boundary
laying acrs srn portions of the area late this aftn, will lift N
of the region Thu morning, then drops back down acrs the area as a
cold front Fri aftn thru Fri ngt. Winds will be arnd 10 kt or less
thru this period, and go fm SE or S tngt into Thu ngt, then SW
becoming W or NW Fri and Fri ngt. Waves 1-2 ft over the bay and
2-3 ft seas over the coastal waters.
-- Changed Discussion --MD...None.
NC...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Thursday for NCZ012>017-
VA...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Thursday for VAZ060-
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