Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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880 FXUS61 KAKQ 220626 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 126 AM EST Thu Feb 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains centered off the southeast coast tonight. A backdoor cold front drops south across the area Thursday, then lifts back north as a warm front Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Strong hi pres sfc-aloft remains anchored off the mid- Atlantic/SE CONUS coast this evening...providing continued unseasonably warm conditions. All climate sites reached or surpassed record highs today...w/ many readings in the u70s- around 80F across the local area. Temperatures have only fallen off to the 60s so far this eve...will likely break record high minimums for the day as well. A cold front remains from NY to wrn gulf states. That front is making progress E and SE through PA/NY while nearly stationary to the SW of there. Classic backdoor cold front pattern for the FA (in late Winter-Spring when warm spells usually end from the N)...that front will press S across the FA late tonight (far N areas) and Thu (into nrn NC by days end). For the rest of the night...remaining warm and averaging partly cloudy. Models suggest SCT-BKN ST to develop after midnight...and possible ISOLD SHRAs (far N as cold front settles that far S). Lows in the m-u50s far NNE to the l60s elsewhere. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Challenging forecast for Thurs as the position of the boundary will determine the temp, pcpn type and chcs. Data indicates the boundary slowly sags south into central Va by 18Z then stalls across srn VA by 00Z Fri. Moisture fields show best support for measurable pcpn will be north of the bndry where pcpn type will likely change from shwrs to a stratiformed light rain/drizzle CAD scenario. Look for temps to remain stdy or slowly fall thru the day north of it while it remains unseasonably warm with highs in the 70s south. Could see a 30 degree range in temps across the local area. Cooler Thurs night with light rain/drizzle/fog across the north due to a moist onshore flow. Lows 40-45 north, 45-50 south. Kept chc showers going Fri as front slips back north as a warm front. Highs in the lwr 50s north to lwr 60s south. Highs low-mid 50s north, upr 60s-lwr 70s south. Boundary lifts north leaving the local area in the warm sector Fri night along with chcs for more fog. Lows mid 40s ern shore to mid- upr 50s south. Warm again Sat with chc for shwrs. Highs 60-65 ern shore to the mid-upr 70s south. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Sunday continues to look like a mild yet wet day with the surface cyclone staying over the Great Lakes with the surface cold front moving into the area Sunday afternoon. Best chances for rain will be north of I-64 where the better forcing and moisture will be located. However, the front will be slow to move through the area given that it will become nearly parallel to the upper flow aloft. Canadian high pressure builds in for early next week so it is possible that a lingering shower may persist across NC on Monday, it will most likely be dry Monday-Tuesday. The high shifts offshore by Wednesday, allowing return S-SW flow to develop. An approaching front Wed afternoon may allow for showers later in the afternoon into Wed night, but timing is still uncertain and have opted to keep out of the forecast. Sunday will be another warm day with S-SW flow ahead of the strong warm front. However, clouds and showers will likely keep temps in the upper 60s/lower 70s despite the +12C 850mb temps. Temps closer to normal Monday-Wednesday, but mostly sunny skies expected as the high pressure builds overhead. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions to start the forecast period at all sites. A backdoor cold front begins to approach the region from the north early this morning. This will allow for stratus to first develop across the north and then spread south as the front sags into the region. Am expecting MVFR/IFR CIGS to develop at PHF/RIC/SBY by 12Z. Scattered rain showers, drizzle, and patchy fog will also be possible with the backdoor cold front through much of the day. The front will continue to sag south through the day with deteriorating aviation conditions expected behind the front. Locations further south, including ECG, may not see deteriorating conditions until after this forecast period, aside for some brief fog psbl this morning. Winds ahead of the front are expected to remain S-SW 5-10 kt becoming variable or light northeast behind the front. Outlook: Expecting a return to IFR/MVFR conditions in rain/fog in moist onshore flow tonight/Fri behind this feature. Front slips back north of the area later Friday into Saturday. A second, stronger cold front will drop across the area Sunday night, with another period of CIG/VSBY restrictions possible during this period. && .MARINE... South flow late this afternoon into tonight will continue to be gusty ahead of the upcoming cold front. May see some gusts to 20kt at times tonight in the Bay. The cold front will slowly sag southward across the area on Thursday, but will stall out over the area over the southern waters. Will see north winds increase to 15- 20kt across the northern waters and 15kt in the Chesapeake Bay late Thursday into Thursday night until the front starts moving back north by Friday. May briefly see SCA conditions across the far northern waters late Thu into Thursday evening, but it is too marginal for issuance right now. Southerly winds will increase once again Friday into Friday Night. A cold front will move through the waters Sunday with increasing north flow Sunday night. High pressure overhead by Monday evening with winds less than 10 kt. && .CLIMATE... Record highs were recorded at Richmond, Salisbury, and Elizabeth City today. The record high was tied at Norfolk. Record high mins will likely be challenged at all climate sites. * Date: Wed 2/21 * Location, Observed, Previous Record RIC: 80, 75 (1930) ORF: 79, 79 (2014) SBY: 76, 75 (1943) ECG: 80, 77 (2014) * Record high mins for 2/21. RIC: 54 (1953) ORF: 58 (1953) SBY: 51 (1953) ECG: 61 (1939) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...AJB/MRD AVIATION...AJB/MAS MARINE...MRD CLIMATE...

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