Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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448 FXUS61 KAKQ 252304 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 704 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will prevail across the Mid Atlantic through Tuesday. Meanwhile, Maria will continue to track north well off the coast while gradually weakening. Maria lingers off the Outer Banks Wednesday, before pushing farther offshore Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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Latest MSAS has high pres anchored over the Eastern Great Lakes and Northeast Conus. Meanwhile, Hurricane Maria is located 280 miles SSE of HAT moving north at 7 mph. Stratus noted right along the coast due to the moist NE onshore flow. Latest radar shows the first batch of shwrs well ahead of Maria rotating onshore across NC mainly along and south of the Albemarle Sound. The low-level moisture along the coast this evening is expected to spread inland with overcast conditions becoming prominent most areas overnight. Latest high res data not all that bullish in pushing much in the way of measurable pcpn inland tonight, but will keep the low chc pops across the ern half of the fa tonight given the moistening onshore flow. May even be a bit of drizzle later on as the lowest levels moisten up. Lows from the mid 60s inland to the low 70s along the immediate coast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... Maria continues to push N Tuesday, and perhaps slightly W of due N as an upper low drops sewd across FL. Increasing moisture and some outer banded features will result in 20-35% PoPs along and E of I-95 Tuesday. QPF will be minimal for most areas. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s Tuesday under a mostly cloudy sky. Becoming breezy along the coast with a NE wind increasing to 15-25 mph, with gusts up to 30-35 mph possible. Maria reaches about 160mi ESE of Cape Hatteras by 00z Wednesday, around 150mi E of Cape Hatteras by 12z Wednesday, and then 140-180mi ENE of Cape Hatteras by 00z Thursday as some spread remains in the guidance. NHC has Maria weakening to a tropical storm during this time-frame. The offshore track will result in minimal rainfall across SE VA/NE NC (and coastal MD to a lesser degree), generally 0.50" or less. There is still a potential for modestly strong wind gusts south of Cape Charles on the coastal waters, and along the immediate coast from ORF/VA Beach to the Currituck County beaches (including the Currituck Sound). Tropical Storm Watches for these areas are currently in effect which may be upgraded to Warnings later this afternoon. High seas and minor or localized moderate coastal flooding will also occur along the coast. Will have PoPs of 20-40% east of I-95 Wed (40-50% coastal NE NC Tue night), with slight chc PoPs into the Piedmont. Wind gusts could reach 30-45 mph from around Norfolk/VA Beach southward into coastal NE NC. The biggest impacts will likely be from tidal flooding and beach erosion along/near the coast. Highs Wed from the upr 70s coast to the low/mid 80s inland, after morning lows in the 60s and low 70s. By 12z Thu, Maria is shown to move NE to around 200-260 miles ENE of Cape Hatteras, then pushing well offshore by late in the day. Will carry lingering slight chc PoPs (~20%) along the coast for primarily the morning hours. Otherwise, decreasing clouds through the day. Highs from the upr 70 coast to low/mid 80s inland. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Very quiet weather expected in the extended as a positively tilted upper trough swings across the Great Lakes and Northeastern US Friday and Saturday. This trough will serve to escort Maria away from the coast and at the same time push a weak cold front through the region on Thursday night. This will allow drier and cooler air to move back into the region. Expect overnight lows in the mid to upper 50s Thurs and Friday night with highs Friday in the mid 70s. A secondary area of low pressure and a reinforcing cold front will slide through the area on Saturday as the upper trough pivots off the coast on Saturday. But moisture will be limited with the front and the best chance for any showers will be over the Delmarva. By Sunday, a strong area of high pressure is building across New England and down the Eastern Seaboard on Sunday and Monday. This will provide dry and seasonable temperatures with highs in the low. to mid 70s and overnight lows in the low to mid 50s. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MVFR to local IFR conditions are prominent along the immediate coast and portions of SE VA/NE NC this afternoon. Elsewhere, VFR conditions prevail with a clear/mainly clear sky. MVFR cigs will gradually push farther inland this evening, reaching KRIC around 03Z, and potentially falling to IFR overnight at all TAF sites. A NE wind of 10-15kt along the immediate coast this afternoon/tonight will increase to 15-20kt with gusts around 25 kt Tuesday morning. Outlook: Increasing moisture from Maria will result in a 20-40% chc for showers Tuesday/Wednesday. Locally stronger wind speeds/gusts are expected at ORF/ECG Tuesday night/Wednesday. A cold front approaches from the NW Thursday/Friday and pushes Maria farther offshore with conditions improving Thursday/Friday. && .MARINE... Given the track of Maria and the broadening wind field, am expecting that some tropical storm force conditions (especially in gusts) will occur over the coastal waters south of the VA/NC border starting as early as early Tuesday evening and continuing into Wednesday as Maria moves east. Still a little more uncertainty between Cape Charles and the VA/NC border and as such have opted to maintain the tropical storm watch in this area. Regardless, it looks like tropical storm force winds would be away from the coast. In the lower bay, winds will be increasing Tuesday Night into Wed. Given that the track stays far enough offshore, it does not look like sustained TS winds will be in the bay, but there could be a few gusts to near 35 kt for a period late Tuesday night into Wed morning. As such, will maintain the SCA for this area, as well as areas north of Cape Charles. Winds/seas will start to improve Wednesday Night as Maria rapidly moves east. Please monitor the NHC forecast for the official forecast track of Hurricane Maria. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Tidal departures currently 0.5 to 1 ft today as northeast to east winds begin to increase. Expect the departure to slowly steadily increase as Maria moves northward through Wednesday. Expect departures of 2 to 2.5 ft by Wednesday across the southern Bay and areas south of Cape Henry along the ocean, with 1-1.5 ft departures northern bay into the northern coastal waters. These values are similar to what we saw last week in Jose. However, the astronomical tide is about 0.6 ft less this week than last week in Jose. This should keep any coastal flooding confined to minor in the southern bay and areas during the time of high tide. As with Jose, the main concern may end up being high surf and potential coastal erosion. Will issue a High Surf Advisory for the entire coastal waters starting tomorrow as the swell associated with Maria moves into the region. Am still thinking that nearshore waves of 8-11 ft are possible starting Tuesday and continuing into Wednesday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...High Surf Advisory from 4 AM Tuesday to 7 PM EDT Wednesday for MDZ025. NC...Tropical Storm Warning for NCZ017-102. VA...High Surf Advisory from 4 AM Tuesday to 7 PM EDT Wednesday for VAZ099. High Surf Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 PM EDT Wednesday for VAZ098-100. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ632-634- 638. Tropical Storm Warning for ANZ633-658. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ650-652- 654. Tropical Storm Watch for ANZ656. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM/MPR SHORT TERM...AJZ/JDM LONG TERM...AJZ/JDM AVIATION...AJZ/JDM MARINE...MRD TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.