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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 171457
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1057 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A WEAK FRONT STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY
LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH ON SUNDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
WK FNTL BNDRY NOW S OF THE FA...W/ WNDS HAVING NOW BECOME ONSHR
(ENE). VSBY SATL SHOWING NUMEROUS BREAKS IN CLDNS OVR THE FA. W/ A
LTL MORE SUNSHINE XPCD...AT LEAST THROUGH ERY AFTN...AND BASED ON
LATEST LAV TEMP GUID...HAVE ADJSTD TEMPS UP A FEW DEGS F. THE CST
WILL RMN COOLER W/ WNDS OFF THE WTRS. LWRD POPS ACRS FA...GENLY
CONFINING POPS (20-30%) TO AFT 21Z/17 AND FM INTR NE NC THROUGH
SCNTRL AND INTO PDMNT W OF I95 CORRIDOR IN VA. CLSR TO THE
CST...ATMOS RMNG STABLE...AND POPS AOB 10%. HI TEMPS FM THE M/U70S
AT THE CST...TO THE M80S INLAND.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE
FRONT STALLS ACROSS NC. MIDWEST UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
PROGRESS EWD SAT...LOCATING OVER THE TN VALLEY SAT AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL ORIENT ALONG THE NE
COAST...EXTENDING SWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. RESULT WILL BE
ONSHORE FLOW AND CORRESPONDING COOLING. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES
WILL PROVIDE SUBTLE FORCING FOR ASCENT IN ADDITION TO DIURNAL
FORCING (AFTERNOON HEATING). SW FLOW WILL ALSO ADVECT +1 STD DEV
PRECIP WATERS (1.25-1.50 INCHES) INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THE RESULT
WILL BE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CLOUDY AND WET WEATHER. 72 HOUR QPF
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM NEARLY 2 INCHES FROM THE SW TO
.75 INCHES E. THETA-E ADVECTION AND TEMPS IN THE LOW 80S WILL
MAINTAIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS (500-1500 J/KG CAPE) OVER
SRN VA/NE NC EACH AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE IN THAT AREA.

HI TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 70S NORTH TO LOW 80S
SOUTH (NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS)...COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
DUE TO ONSHORE WINDS. LOW TEMPS FRI AND SAT NIGHT GENERALLY UPPER
50S/LOW 60S INLAND TO MID 60S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS IS IN ADDITION TO A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE
PASSING OVERHEAD WILL PRODUCE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AN H5 RIDGE AXIS SHOULD BUILD OVER THEN EASTERN U.S.
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...THEN SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST LATE WEDNESDAY AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO IMPACT THE MID-ATLANTIC. WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHC POPS ON TUESDAY DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS AS
TO WHETHER OR NOT THE UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHES FAR ENOUGH OFF THE
COAST. THE NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON
THE WARM/MILD SIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S
AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NC THIS MORNG...WITH SW OR W
WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT BECMG NNE. MAINLY JUST HI CLOUDS EXPECTED
THRU THIS MORNG WITH LIGHT PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACRS NC THRU AT LEAST
SAT...THEN SLOWLY LIFT BACK N AS A WARM FRONT DURING SUN. CHCS FOR
SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS AND LWR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL INCREASE LATE
TNGT AND CONTINUE THRU SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACRS SRN VA INTO NC TODAY. WNW WINDS 10
KT OR LESS EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL BECOME NNE LESS THAN 15 KT FOR
LATER THIS MORNG INTO THIS AFTN. GENERALLY E WINDS LESS THAN 15
KT THEN EXPECTED FOR TNGT THRU SAT...AS THE FRNT STALLS OVR NC.
THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK N AS A WARM FRONT SUN INTO SUN NGT...WITH
SE OR S WINDS ARND 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS MAY BLD TO 5 FT OVR THE NRN
CSTL WTRS ON SUN.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG