Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KAKQ 191918
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
218 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017
High pressure builds into the area today. A backdoor cold front
pushes south across the area tonight. High pressure builds well
north of the region and slides off the coast by Tuesday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Current wv imagery shows an upper trough pushing off the
Carolina coast, with a lingering trough axis sliding across the
Delmarva producing some mid/high (AC/CI) clouds. The surface
pressure pattern is weak and generally characterized by a weak
trough over the Ern Conus, and high pressure over the Tennessee
Valley. Cross-sections indicate the skn-bkn clouds with the
trough will thin through the day. 850mb temperatures drop to
around 6-8C, but will be offset by downsloping light NW flow.
Above normal temperatures continue (+1.5 - 2.0 st dev) with
highs in the lower 70s except mid to upr 60s along the coast.
Readings may hover around 60 at the beaches. Record highs appear
safe but may be approached at SBY. See CLI section below.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure over eastern Canada pushes a backdoor cold front south
across the are this evening. The 1030+ mb high continues to build
ewd Monday resulting in onshore flow and cooler conditions near
the water while the Piedmont stays mild. Lows tonight in the 40s.
Highs Monday range from the low/mid 50s for the Ern Shore, low
to mid 60s in the I-95 corridor, to the low 70s over the Piedmont.
High pressure prevails over the region Monday night. Colder with
lows dropping into the low/mid 30s NE to the upper 30s/around 40
W under a mostly clear sky.
The high slides offshore Tuesday as a weakening cold front approaches
from the W. Mixing will be limited, only to about 950-925mb, with
high temperatures ranging from the low/mid 50s NE to the lwr 60s
SW. Dry with increasing clouds by aftn.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The models are in good agreement in the extended range showing a
flat ridge over the eastern US for the second half of the work
week. That ridge will amplify into Saturday as a trough lifts
out of the central plains into the Great Lake states which will
knock the ridge down by Sunday and return the area to more
westerly zonal flow. Overall, this will lead to another period
of above normal temperature and just a chance for showers as the
cold front crosses the area Friday night into Saturday morning.
On Wed night into Thursday as the high slides off the coast, the
flow will turn sw and should see a good warm up ahead of a weak
front that tries to drop in from the north. The guidance suggest
the possibility of some light showers especially across the
northern part of the cwa Thursday into Thursday night. But with
the area having been dry for the last several weeks will not
mention any chance of rain with this week front as the ridging
aloft may end up keeping the front just north of the area.
Expect above normal temperatures with readings with highs in the
uppers 60s to the mid 70s. The next strong sfc low will lift
from the central plains into the Great Lakes on Friday into
Saturday dragging a cold front across the region on Saturday.
The guidance is a little suspect on how much moisture is
available and with the trough and dynamics lifting NE away from
the area have kept pops at chance with the front and QPF at this
point looks to be pretty low still, less than 0.25". Behind the
front, temperatures will return closer to normal but still above
normal, but just not 20 to 25 above normal as Thursday into
Saturday will be.
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions across the CWA this afternoon with few clouds
except some mid/high level clouds over the Eastern Shore. Those
clouds should thin and/or move out of the vicinity by late
afternoon and early evening. Winds are mostly light out of the
NW-N less than 10 kt. Mostly SKC expected overnight.
OUTLOOK...High pressure and VFR conditions over the region on
Monday. Scattered showers possible Tue night. Otherwise, dry
weather through Thursday.
Sub-SCA conditions through at least mid week. A trough of low pres
slides through the area this morng as low pres develops off the SE
cst, with 10-15 kt SW winds shifting to the NW by later this morng.
Waves over the Bay 1-2 ft with seas over cstl wtrs 2-3 ft. Similar
conditions into tonight with a slight uptick in winds (up to ~15 kt)
as a weak cold front drops through the area. High pres then builds
in from the west Mon, settling over the wtrs Mon night into Tue
allowing for benign marine conditions to continue.
Record highs for today:
* Site 2/19 Forecast highs
* RIC: 78 (1961) 73
* ORF: 73 (1907) 68
* SBY: 72 (1961) 71
* ECG: 77 (1939) 69