Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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711 FXUS61 KAKQ 231859 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 259 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure resides over the Mid Atlantic Region through mid week...bringing in a drier and more seasonable air mass to the area. High pressure then slides offshore later in the week. A cold front drops into the area late Friday night.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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Central sfc high pressure slides off the Delmarva tonight with the ridge axis extending down across the VA/NC/SC coastal plain. Sct-bkn cumulus west of Ches Bay will slowly dissipate through the evening and clear up shortly after sunset through the early overnight hours. Shallow patchy fog may develop around sunrise for areas located well inland, however visibilities should not be impacted. Lows generally in the low-mid 60s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Any fog that develops around sunrise will be short-lived and is expected to dissipate btwn 800-900 AM. Sfc high pressure becomes well-rooted across the coastal plain with the ridge axis draped across far SE VA into cntrl NC/SC through Wed night. The overall forecast is dry, however, an area of moisture moving onshore across far SE VA/NE NC will result in increasing cloudiness shortly after sunrise Wed into the afternoon...when isolated showers/storms may be possible during peak heating. POPs no higher than 20%. Meanwhile, a weak sfc trough pushing across the Great Lakes will push a cirrus deck across the mts and into the Piedmont later in the day...spreading to roughly SBY-AKQ-EMV into Thursday as the sfc ridge axis gets pushed ewd along the coastline by the sfc trough now crossing srn Ontario. Onshore/NE-E winds around 10-15 mph will persist Wed through Thu, which will keep temps slightly cooler at the immediate coast during the day and slightly warmer at night. Expect highs Wed in the mid 80s inland/low 80s immediate coast. Lows Wed night in the 60s. Temps slightly warmer Thu as the ridge axis shifts ewd with highs in the mid-upper 80s inland/low-mid 80s immediate coast.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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No major changes expected to the going long term forecast as upper ridging persists across the eastern coast of the U.S into the SE U.S. This will keep the upper jet displaced well north and west of the area allowing for dry and hot conditions to persist across SE VA and NE NC. A stray shower or storm moving off the mountains and into the piedmont, or developing off the sea breeze near the coast, cannot be ruled out over the weekend given the hot/humid conditions. However, given the lack of any upper support and the very dry antecedent airmass will opt for a dry forecast at this time. Have opted to introduce slight chance pops for next Tuesday as the GFS suggests that the upper ridge will displace to the south allowing stronger W-NW flow aloft to move into the middle Atlantic. This may open the door for a few storms during the afternoon/evening as a weakening front approaches from the north. However, again at this time the chances look pretty low. Back to true summer time conditions at least temperature wise as readings during the day will be right back into the low-mid 90s with lows only in the 70s. It will be much more humid as well as compared to the early part of this week.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure, VFR conditions and NE-E winds will prevail the rest of today into Wednesday. Sct-bkn afternoon cumulus has developed west of Ches Bay as anticipated with cloud bases around 4-6 kft AGL. The cumulus is expected to slowly dissipate through sunset and then clear up briefly overnight. Shallow patchy fog may develop around sunrise for areas located well inland (including TAF sites KRIC, KSBY & KPHF), however visibilities should not be impacted. Any fog that develops will be short-lived and dissipate btwn 24/1200-1300Z. An area of moisture moving onshore across far SE VA/NE NC will result in increasing cloudiness shortly after sunrise through the afternoon...when isolated showers/storms may be possible at KECG. Meanwhile, a disturbance pushing across the Great Lakes on Wed will push a cirrus deck across the mts and into the Mid Atlantic Region later in the day. Overall, high pressure and dry weather will continue to prevail through the upcoming weekend. A weak front is anticipated to move through the area late Fri/early Sat, however shower activity is minimal at the moment. && .MARINE...
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Generally quiet marine conditions expected for the next couple of days with high pressure in control. Expect this high to move off to the NE by Thu allowing increasing southerly winds across the entire area. Do not expect any SCA conditions but certainly 15 knots not out of the question. A weak trough may pass the waters on Sat allowing winds to turn back to the NW but they should be less than 15 kt. Will need to watch for building swell next week originating from the various tropical systems well out into the Atlantic.
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&& .EQUIPMENT... Azimuth motor has been repaired. However, the KAKQ radar will undergo preventative maintenance and alignment checks through this afternoon before being returned to full service status. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BMD NEAR TERM...BMD SHORT TERM...BMD LONG TERM...MRD AVIATION...BMD MARINE...MRD EQUIPMENT...AKQ

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