Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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352 FXUS61 KAKQ 282019 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 419 PM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will slide out to sea later tonight through Friday. A trough of low pressure will set up over the area for late Friday night through Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Late this aftn, sfc high pressure was cntrd over ern VA, providing the fcst area with a mainly sunny sky and very pleasant conditions. Temps ranged fm the mid 70s to lower 80s. The high will slide just off the coast by Thu morning, maintaining dry wx and still rather comfortable temps. Lows will range fm the upper 50s to lower 60s most locations. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... The high will continue to slide out to sea later Thu thru Fri. Dry wx will prevail thru at least the first part of Fri for the entire region. SSW flow will start to increase on Thu resulting in a warmer and slightly more humid airmass. Mostly sunny with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Mostly clear Thu night with lows in the mid to upper 60s. That SSW flow will bring increasing dewpts/low level moisture into the region for Fri thru Sat. An isolated shower or tstm could affect srn third of the area Fri aftn into Fri night. Then, isolated to sctd showers or tstms will be possible Sat aftn into Sat evening, as a trough of low pressure sets up over the region. Highs on Fri will range fm the mid 80s to lower 90s. Lows Fri night mainly in the lower 70s. Highs on Sat in the upper 80s to lower 90s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Long term period will feature a fairly typical summertime pattern with a weakening cold front approaching from the W/NW on Sat with a lee sfc trough out ahead of the front. Still capping PoPs at 20-40% in the aftn/evening under partly-mostly sunny skies as any more significant forcing stays NW closer to the front. Lows mainly 70-75 F with highs Sat primarily in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Sunday will see the front wash out across the local area, will maintain 20- 30% PoPs (except 30 to 40% over northeast NC). Highs in the upper 80/around 90 F. May even be able to lower PoPs a little more across the N with later model runs but wanted to keep some continuity given the weak front and a lot of uncertainty as to how much it actually weakens. Mon/Tue will see the local area generally in light flow and minimal forcing. It will be very warm and humid with enough aftn/early evening instability along a lee trough for ~20% PoPs most areas. Highs 90-95 F inland and mid-upper 80s/lower 90s near the coast. Lows generally 70-75 F. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure over the Mid Atlantic States will slowly slide off the coast overnight. A cold front over the Midwest will approach this weekend and then stall to the north of the area. As of 17z...a clear sky covered the TAF sites. A few cumulus will be over the area this afternoon with scattered coverage Thursday. Variable winds today will be from the southwest Thursday. OUTLOOK....There will be a chance for mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms Saturday through Monday. && .MARINE... The brief northerly surge on the Bay from earlier this morning continues to diminish as of 630 am. Winds become NNE around 10 kt all areas by late morning. Waves subside to 1-2 ft on the Bay by aftn; seas around 2 ft. As sfc high pressure builds overhead this aftn, expect much lighter onshore flow to develop at 5-10 kt. High pressure slides well off the coast Thursday/Friday with return flow resulting in increasing S-SW winds to 15-20 kt. Waves 2-3 ft on the Bay and seas possibly building to 4-5 ft north of Parramore Island (genly more like 2-4 ft for southern coastal waters). SCA headlines may be needed late Thu/Thu night. A slow moving cold a front approaches from the NW Sat but weakens by the time it reaches the local area on Sunday. Thus, outside of any tstms conditions will be sub-SCA with winds only 10-15 kt or less. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Thursday to 4 AM EDT Friday for ANZ630-631. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...TMG SHORT TERM...TMG LONG TERM...LKB AVIATION...LSA MARINE...LKB

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