Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 291921 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 321 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY KEEPING COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT...POSSIBLY BRINING A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER NORTH OF I-64 THIS EVENING. A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE AREA BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM... TOUGH DAY TO SEE CLOUDS DIMINISH WITH THE WEDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC. THIS HAS THUS KEPT TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A DEAMPLIFYING UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS AS WELL AS THE NAM AND EVEN THE GFS SUGGEST THAT A FEW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NRN VA/WV MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE E-SE TO AREAS NORTH OF I- 64 AND INTO THE EASTERN SHORE THIS EVENING. WITH LIMITED DEEP MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THE THE AREA BEING REMOVED FROM THE BETTER UPPER SUPPORT...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH AND MD EASTERN SHORE. OTHERWISE...WITH ALL OF THE RAIN AND ALL OF THE MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION...EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 50S WITH SOME UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. && .SHORT TERM... THE WEDGE WILL STAY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH COOL NORTHEAST FLOW AND LOW CLOUDS CONTINUING. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS MOVES EASTWARD WITH ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL GRADUALLY ALLOW FOR WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT TO GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE APPALACHIANS LATER IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND INTO THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN OF VA/NE NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE WEDGE BREAKS DOWN. MAY SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF VIRGINIA AND THE MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE. WILL THEREFORE INCREASE POPS TO CATEGORICAL SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR VA AND MD...BUT KEEP CHANCE POPS IN NE NC AS THEY WILL CONTINUE TO BE REMOVED FROM THE BEST MOISTURE. AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH ON SUNDAY...IT SEEMS CONCEIVABLE THAT THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA WILL DRY OUT AND MAY ACTUALLY SEE SOME SUNSHINE BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE IN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER INDICATED MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR SUNDAY...AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR AND INCREASING UPPER WINDS IN RESPONSE TO THE LOWERING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE AREA. THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT WILL HANG UP ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE BEST UPPER FORCING REMAINS NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH MUCH OF THE MOISTURE OFF INTO NEW ENGLAND. AS SUCH...DESPITE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEING NEARLY STALLED ACROSS THE AREA IT WILL BE TOUGH TO GENERATE MUCH PRECIPITATION. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY HOWEVER GIVEN THE SURFACE BOUNDARY BEING OVER THE AREA. MONDAY MAY END UP BEING THE WARMEST DAY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS HOWEVER DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF PARTIAL SUNSHINE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFFSHORE MON WITH LINGERING MOISTURE AND LIFT PROVIDING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. THEREAFTER...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE WRN CONUS...RESULTING IN TROUGHING THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ECMWF CONTINUES TO STALL THE FRONT ALONG THE COAST MON DUE TO WEAKER UPPER LEVEL FORCING COMPARED TO ITS GFS COUNTERPART. GFS PUSHES THE FRONT OFF THE SHORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. PREFER THE GFS BASED ON THE PATTERN...BUT WILL NOT COMPLETELY DISCOUNT THE ECMWF. WILL KEEP MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INLAND AND LOW END CHANCE POPS ALONG THE COAST TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY TUE AND WEDS AS THE ECMWF LIFTS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY. TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S (COOLER ALONG THE COAST). WARMEST DAY BEING MON WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/POSSIBLY UPPER 70S. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S. && .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER NC THIS AFTN...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. STRATUS PERSISTS OVER THE AREA WITH CIGS AVERAGING 500-1200FT. IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. -DZ IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASING CHC FOR -RA AND DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. RA IS LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A MINIMAL CHC OF THUNDER SUNDAY AFTN. A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...AND SETTLES S OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. && .MARINE... LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES AND LIFTS ENE OFF THE COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A NE WIND AOB 15KT. SEAS HAVE REACHED 5FT AT BUOY 44009 EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THE CURRENT FORECAST OF 4-5FT SEAS REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO BE CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SATURDAY...WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN E WIND AOB 15KT WITH 3-4FT SEAS...AND 2-3FT WAVES IN THE BAY. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL TRIGGER A WIND SHIFT TO SE SATURDAY NIGHT...AND SSW BY SUNDAY...WITH SPEEDS REMAINING AOB 15KT. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. THIS COLD FRONT SETTLES S OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION. SEAS AVERAGE 3-4FT LATER IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH 2-3FT WAVES IN THE BAY. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MRD NEAR TERM...MRD SHORT TERM...MRD LONG TERM...SAM AVIATION...AJZ/DAP MARINE...AJZ

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