Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 181747 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 147 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFF TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS AFTERNOON...MAINTAINING A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY...TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM EASTERN CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SFC HI PRES RMNS INVOF ERN NEW ENG LATE THIS MRNG...AND EXTENDS SW INTO THE MDATLC STATES. ALG-E OF THE RIDGE AXIS...WIDESPREAD STRATUS COVERS LWR SE MD...ERN 1/3RD OF VA...TO CSTL NE NC. THAT CLDNS WILL BE SLO TO BREAK THIS AFTN (IF AT ALL) DUE TO CONTD LO LVL FLO FM THE ENE. ELSW...XPCG VRB CLDS TO MCLDY THE REST OF THE DAY. THERE IS AN AREA OF "CLEARING" WORKING NNE INTO WRN/INTERIOR SRN PORTIONS OF THE FA ATTM...HWVR...ADDITIONAL CLDNS BEGINNING TO APPROACH/SPREAD NE FM CNTRL/WRN NC. NO RA XPCD THROUGH THIS AFTN. RMNG COOL...HAVE NUDGED TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE/FEW DEGS F...MNLY FM I 95 ON E TO THE CST. HI TEMPS MNLY FM 45 TO 50F NR THE BAY/OCN...TO THE L/M50S OVR LAND E...AND M/U50S W. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FORM A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE GULF COAST STATES TONIGHT (WILL REMAIN UN-PHASED WITH NORTHERN STREAM). THIS IN TURN WILL PRODUCE A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST ON SAT. THE GFS HAS BEEN FARTHER NORTH WITH THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED PCPN THAN OTHER MODELS WHILE THE NAM KEEPS PCPN CONFINED TO NE NC. LATEST EURO IS PREFERRED SOLUTION...IS SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO NAM BUT DOES INDICATE ENOUGH OVERRUNNING MOISTURE MAKING IT INTO FAR SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC OVERNIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SAT TO SUPPORT HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS IN THESE AREAS. GENLY KEPT AREAS NORTH OF A RIC TO WAL DRY FOR THE EVENT BUT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH MOST OF SAT. WENT CLOSER TO COOLER MAV NUMBERS FOR HIGHS SAT...MID/UPPER 60S FAR NW...TO UPPER 50S/AROUND 60 F IN FAR S/SE VA AND NE NC. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL HAVE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH. TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPR 60S OVER INLAND AREAS ON SUNDAY. READINGS HOLD IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S TOWARD THE COAST. LOWS GENERALLY RUN IN THE 40S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA SUN NIGHT INTO MON BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE COAST MON NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A COASTAL LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO RESIDE WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THIS TIME. AS THE SFC HIGH SLIDES OFF THE COAST MON NIGHT...A RELATIVELY FLAT (WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN TWD THE AREA MON NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON TUE/TUE NIGHT...MOVING OFFSHORE BY WED MORNING. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW TRAVELING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. GFS MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO BE FAST BUT IS STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION. LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE NC COASTS). AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH WED...THE TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM SECTOR DEVELOPS. OVERALL...EXPECT A WARMING TREND THROUGH NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE AT TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S (MID-UPPER 60S POSSIBLE AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST). LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE 50S EACH NIGHT NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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MVFR CEILINGS WITH THE NE FLOW OFF THE OCEAN ARE PERSISTING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SOUTHEAST VA COAST REACHING BOTH PHF AND ORF. ONCE INLAND JUST A FEW MILES THE MVFR CEILINGS LIFT TO VFR. SBY...RIC AND ECG WERE VFR AS OF 18Z AND SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS AT ORF AND PHF MAY EVENTUALLY IMPROVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...HOWEVER INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS IS LIMITING HEATING AND MIXING WHICH COULD ALLOW THE NARROW BAND OF MVFR TO PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND A TROF OF LOW PRES OFF THE SE COAST IS WILL MAINTAINING THE NE WINDS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MORE MID LEVEL AND SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL INCREASE FROM THE SSW LATER THIS EVENING AND TNGT...IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRES MOVING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NNE INTO SRN GA/NRN FL. MODEL DISAGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF SHOWERS WHICH SPREAD NORTH INTO SOUTHEAST VA...BUT ALL SUGGEST AT LEAST PERIODS OF SHOWERS AT ECG BEFORE DAYBREAK LASTING UNTIL AROUND NOON SATURDAY. THESE SHOWERS COULD ALSO REACH ORF AND PHF BY DAYBREAK...BUT WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE IT ANY FURTHER NORTH THAN PHF. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT PHF...ORF AND ECG LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY.
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&& .MARINE... GENERALLY PERSISTENT NE WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE WTRS TODAY THRU MON. IN THE SHRT TERM...SCA`S WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THRU THIS EVENG FOR THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY (634) AND CURRITUCK SND (633)...AND THRU LATE SAT NGT FOR ALL THE CSTL WTRS. TNGT THRU MON...LO PRES WILL TRACK ACRS FL...THEN ENE WELL OFF THE MID ATLC CST...AS HI PRES MOVES FM THE NRN GRT LAKES EWD ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND OFF THE CST. THIS SCENARIO WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY NE OR N WINDS WHICH WILL BECOME RATHER STRONG ACRS ALL THE WTRS SAT NGT INTO SUN NGT...AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SCA CONDITIONS. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633- 634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654- 656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/LSA NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB SHORT TERM...LKB LONG TERM...BMD AVIATION...JAO MARINE...TMG

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