Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 281024 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 624 AM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds over the area today...then slides off the coast for Wednesday night through Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Sfc hi pres will build over the region on today...providing dry wx and very comfortable conditions under a sunny or mostly sunny sky. Highs in the l-m80s...except m-u70s at the beaches. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The high will slide out to sea later tonight thru Fri. Dry wx will prevail. SSW flow will start to increase on Thu resulting in a warmer and more humid airmass. Clear or mostly clear tonight with lows 55 to 60F inland...60 to 65F at the coast. Partly to mostly sunny on Thu with highs in the m80s to around 90F...l80s at the beaches. That SSW flow will bring increasing dewpts/low level moisture into the region for Thu night and Fri. Enough of that moisture combined with heating and very weak lift could trigger ISOLD SHRAs/tstms over far srn/sw counties Fri evening. Lows Thu night in the m60s to around 70F. Highs on Fri in the 80s- l90s...l80s at the beaches. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Long term period will feature a fairly typical summertime pattern with a weakening cold front approaching from the W/NW on Sat with a lee sfc trough out ahead of the front. Still capping PoPs at 20-40% in the aftn/evening under partly-mostly sunny skies as any more significant forcing stays NW closer to the front. Lows mainly 70-75 F with highs Sat primarily in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Sunday will see the front wash out across the local area, will maintain 20- 30% PoPs (except 30 to 40% over northeast NC). Highs in the upper 80/around 90 F. May even be able to lower PoPs a little more across the N with later model runs but wanted to keep some continuity given the weak front and a lot of uncertainty as to how much it actually weakens. Mon/Tue will see the local area generally in light flow and minimal forcing. It will be very warm and humid with enough aftn/early evening instability along a lee trough for ~20% PoPs most areas. Highs 90-95 F inland and mid-upper 80s/lower 90s near the coast. Lows generally 70-75 F. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Sfc hi pres builds over the region today...then shifts slowly off the coast Thu-Fri. VFR conditions w/ mainly light winds (aob 10 kt) into Thu...some increase in speeds but remaining mainly aob 15 kt Thu afternoon into Fri as winds become SSW. The next chance for SHRAs/tstms will be late Fri-Sat. && .MARINE... A brief northerly surge is impacting the middle/lower Bay early this morning in the wake of a weak frontal passage. Wind gusts up to 25 kt will occur thru 4 am or so. Due to the short duration of these elevated winds will opt to handle with a Marine Weather Statement as opposed to a Small Craft Advisory. Waves on the Bay will build to 3 ft for a time early this morning with the increased winds. Winds become NNE around 10 kt all areas by late morning. As sfc high pressure builds overhead this aftn, expect much lighter onshore flow to develop at 5-10 kt. High pressure slides well off the coast Thursday/Friday with return flow resulting in increasing S-SW winds to 15-20 kt. Waves 2-3 ft on the Bay and seas possibly building to 4-5 ft north of Parramore Island (genly more like 2-4 ft for southern coastal waters). SCA headlines may be needed late Thu/Thu night. A slow moving cold a front approaches from the NW Sat but weakens by the time it reaches the local area on Sunday. Thus, outside of any tstms conditions will be sub-SCA with winds only 10-15 kt or less. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG LONG TERM...LKB AVIATION...JEF/WRS MARINE...JDM

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