Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 261936 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 336 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES ALONG THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT AND PUSHES WESTWARD ON WEDNESDAY AS TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTOBAL PASSES WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BECOMING STALLED IN NORTH CAROLINA BY FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTOBAL SHIFTS NWWD OVERNIGHT BEFORE TRACKING NNE ON WED. CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO COME WITHIN 300-350 MILES OF CAPE HATTERAS DURING THIS TIME. ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES FOR KECG CONTINUE TO SHOW THE PRESENCE OF A VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE/STRATUS LAYER...PARTIALLY DUE TO A CONTINUED COOL AIRMASS MOVING OVER WARMER WATERS IN PERSISTENT NE/ONSHORE FLOW AND PARTIALLY FROM SKIRTING BY THE COAST CRISTOBAL. THEREFORE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS COULD WRAPAROUND INTO COASTAL NE NC AND EXTREME FAR SE VA LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING (15 PERCENT CHANCE OR LESS). ANY CHANCE OF RAIN ENDS BY WED AFTN AS CRISTOBAL SHIFTS NNEWD AND BEGINS TO PULL AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT WILL PUSH INTO FAR NRN VA BY WED AFTN/EVENING. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS FAR NW COUNTIES AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. ANOTHER ROUND OF PLEASANT SLEEPING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S MOST INLAND AREAS. TEMPS ALONG THE FAR SE VA/NE NC COASTS WILL ONLY DROP TO THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO CRISTOBAL`S APPROACH TWD CAPE HATTERAS AND NE WINDS STAY AROUND 10-15 MPH. HIGHS START TO MODERATE TWD SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S INLAND/MID 80S IMMEDIATE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE COLD FRONT OVER FAR NRN VA WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH INTO THE AREA WED NIGHT...AS CRISTOBAL CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK FRONT ON WED SHOULD FALL APART BEFORE REACHING THE WAKEFIELD CWA WED NIGHT. THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SWD ON THU...BECOMING STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER THU EVENING INTO FRI. MEANWHILE...A SFC HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE NE CONUS THU NIGHT INTO FRI AND THEN SLIDES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRI NIGHT. WEAK MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALSO BEGINS TO ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE REGION THU INTO FRI. SINCE THE UPPER RIDGE IS RELATIVELY FLAT...WEAK IMPULSES OF MOISTURE/ENERGY MOVING COULD PASS THROUGH IT AND INTERACT WITH THE STALLED BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. OVERALL...PRECIP CHANCES ARE MINIMAL DUE TO THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE OR LIFT PRESENT (NO HIGHER THAN 20 PERCENT THU AND FRI AFTNS). SEASONAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THU/FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 SE BEACHES. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... SFC HI PRES EXITS OFF NEW ENG FRI NGT...THEN BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY INVOF WCNTRL ATLC THROUGH THE WKND. A SFC WARM FRONT LIFTS N ACRS THE FA FRI NGT THROUGH SAT MRNG W/ PSBL ISOLD PCPN. OTRW...BALANCE OF THE PD FM SAT THROUGH SUN WILL BE PC...WARM AND MORE HUMID. A WEAKENING CDFNT SLOLY APPROACHES FM THE WNW LATE SUN. INCRSG MOISTURE AHEAD OF THAT FNT WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL INCRS CLOUDS AND POPS BY LATE SUN (W)...THEN ACRS THE REST OF THE FA INTO MON. LO AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALOFT TO RMN IN PLACE INVOF SE CONUS STATES EARLY NEXT WK...RESULTING IN CONTD WARM/HUMID WX OVR THE RGN FOR EARLY SEP. HI TEMPS MNLY IN THE U80S TO ARND 90F INLAND SAT/SUN... L/M80S AT THE CST. BY MON/TUE...HI TEMPS MNLY IN THE M/U80S. LOW TEMPS THROUGH THE PD FM THE U60S TO L70S. && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS AFTN WITH SCT CU AND NE WINDS 10-15 KT SE VA/NE NC 5-10KT ELSEWHERE. MAINLY SKC TONIGHT WITH LIGHT E/NE FLOW. MODELS SUGGEST SOME INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD AFFECT SE VA/NE NC TAF SITES WED MORNING. FOR NOW HAVE INCLUDED MVFR BKN CIGS AT KECG...KEPT IT SCT FOR KPHF/KORF. PATCHY FOG A POSSIBILITY AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST...ALTHOUGH IT GENLY DID NOT AFFECT TAF SITES THIS PAST MORNING SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED MVFR VSBYS AT KPHF. OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA WED NIGHT/ THU...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE NE/MID ATLC REGION FRI/SAT. SOME POTENTIAL FOR EARLY AM FOG OR LOW CLOUDS BETWEEN 06-12Z BOTH FRI/SAT. && .MARINE... SFC HI PRES EXTENDING FM SRN NEW ENG TO THE MID MS VLY CONTS THE PERSISTENT NE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH WED. A WK CDFNT WILL SLIP S ACRS THE WATERS WED NGT INTO THU MRNG. THAT FNT STALLS JUST S OF THE WATERS BY THU AFTN/NGT WHILE HI PRES SLIDES E INTO NEW ENG. MOST SPEEDS OVR THE WATERS RMN SUB-SCA THROUGH THE END OF THE WK. WHILE SEAS HAVE LOWERED ABT A FOOT OR TWO SINCE YESTERDAY... ANOTHER INCRS IN SEAS (HIGHEST SRN PORTION...PSBLY TO 7-9 FT?)LT TNGT/WED INTO THU AS TROPICAL SYS PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. FOLLOW NHC FORECASTS ON TS CRISTOBAL. AFT CONTD NNE WNDS INTO WED...MOST OF THE WATERS WILL HAVE DIRECTION TO OFFSHORE BY LT WED INTO WED NGT. ONCE WK SFC BNDRY SLIPS ACRS THE WATERS THU...DIRECTION BECOMES NNE THEN E INTO FRI (W/ A PSBL SURGE IN SPEEDS TO JUST BLO LO END SCA...ESP NRN PORTIONS THU MRNG). A TRANSITION FM ONSHORE WNDS TO MSTLY S OCCURS THIS WKND AS HI PRES SETS UP OFF THE CST. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MDZ025. MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025. NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NCZ102. VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VAZ098. BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VAZ099-100. MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ099-100. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BMD NEAR TERM...BMD SHORT TERM...BMD LONG TERM...ALB AVIATION...LKB MARINE...ALB

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