Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 300714 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 211 AM EDT Sun Apr 30 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Bermuda high pressure prevails off the Southeast Coast through the Monday. A backdoor cold front will drop south across the northern Delmarva peninsula tonight, then lifts back north as a warm front Sunday. A cold front pushes across the region Monday night with high pressure returning Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Quick update to account for current conditions. Went ahead and dropped all pops thru 06Z as the radar is void of any echoes with the front located just north of the Mason-Dixon line. High res data suggests it may be closer to 09Z before any convection develops along a weak s/w trof moving east along it. Otw, pt cldy and warm. Lows in the upr 60s to lwr 70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... The front lifts back to the N as a warm front Sunday as the upper ridge builds ahead of a trough digging across the Central Plains. 850mb temperatures actually peak tonight and then drop back to 14-16C by Sunday. Therefore, highs will be a few degrees lower mid/upper 80s, but still well above normal. One exception will be the Lower MD Ern Shore in vicinity of the boundary where highs should be 5-10F lower than today. There is a lack of a trigger for convection, so forecast PoPs area below 15%. Continued mild Sunday night with lows in the mid/upper 60s. A cold front approaches from the W Monday as the Central Plains trough lifts into the Great Lakes. The front is expected to slow as it pushes across the Appalachians with strong surface heating to the lee of the mountains. Therefore, Pops should be slow to increase through the aftn, and mainly over the Piedmont initially. The ridge will hold strong along the coast with the ern half of the area remaining dry through much of the day Monday. 500mb flow ahead of the trough reaches 70-80kt, which yields 0-6km bulk shear ~50kt. However, mid-level lapse rates are rather poor, which is limiting 0- 1km MLCAPE values of 500-600 J/kg once the strongest synoptic forcing arrives locally (mainly 00-06z). The SPC Day 3 marginal risk remains immediately W of the local area given some question as to how unstable the thermodynamic profile will become. PW values ~1.5in combined with strong forcing could result is some locally moderate to heavy rain. The cold front crosses the region Monday night and pushes offshore by 12z Tuesday. PoPs taper off from NW-SE from 06- 12z as drier air arrives from the NW. Highs Monday will generally be 80-85F with lows Monday night ranging from the upper 50s W to the low/mid 60s along the coast. Breezy Monday with a SW wind ~15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. A trough aloft builds over the Ern Conus Tuesday as surface high pressure builds across the Southeast States. Temperatures will be lower, but still on the warm-side of normal with highs ranging from the mid 70s to near 80 under a mostly sunny sky. A wsw wind of 10-15 mph is expected with gusts up to 20-25 mph possible. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A secondary frontal boundary is expected to cross the area Tuesday night and should bring cooler air to the region. Isolated showers could occur north of the Delmarva, however westerly winds aloft should provide enough of a downsloping effect to keep the forecast dry into Wednesday. Lows Tuesday night in the 50s (lower 60s coastal SE VA/NE NC). Highs Wednesday in the mid-upper 70s (upper 60s to lower 70s beaches) under mostly sunny skies and sfc high pressure with light SW-W winds. Sfc high slides offshore Wednesday night with lows in the mid-upper 50s NW to lower 60s SE. A warm front is expected to lift north across the area on Thursday as low pressure develops along it Thursday night into Friday. Increased clouds and precipitation chances anticipated during this timeframe. SE winds become breezy at the coast on Thu and become more S Thu night into Fri. Overall, temperatures will be cooling with highs Thu/Fri in the upper 60s NW to low-mid 70s SE. Lows Thu night in the mid-upper 50s NW to lower 60s SE. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR conditions expected thru the forecast period except for some patchy MVFR BR towards sunrise ivof RIC and psbly SBY. Still some concern whether any convection develops ivof SBY after 09Z as a backdoor cold front is progged to drop south across the Delmarva. Concern as of 06Z is the fact that there is no ongoing convection along the boundary that is located near the Mason-Dixon line, a bit farther north than expected at this point. Given the uncertainity, decided to keep VCSH at SBY between 09-12Z. Thunder is also a psblty but chc to low to include in fcst attm. Otw, SCT CU with SCT-BKN CI expected thru the day along with SSW winds 10-20 KTS. Outlook: MVFR stratus and visbilities will be possible once again early Monday morning with a moist airmass in place. Conditions will briefly return to VFR on Monday before a frontal boundary crosses the region late in the day. This frontal boundary will bring the potential for showers and thunderstorms along with sub-VFR conditions. Dry/VFR conditions are expected through Wednesday with potentially another system impacting the region Thursday. && .MARINE... Generally S-SW winds aob 15kt through Sunday night. Seas average 2-4ft tonight; 2-3ft Sun/Sun night. Waves average 1-2ft. Low-end SCA conditions should begin for the Bay around sunrise Monday morning when normal diurnal winds increase, however speeds will continue to increase into the aftn as the pressure gradient tightens substantially ahead of a strong cold front which is approaching the region. All waters should be within low-end SCA conditions by mid to late Monday morning (S-SW 15-20kt/seas 3-5ft/waves 3-4ft)... then solid SCA conditions by Monday aftn (15-25kt with gusts to around 30kt Bay, Sound, ocean/seas average 5-7ft/ waves 4ft). Strong SCA winds persist ahead of/along the cold frontal passage and then taper off rather quickly behind it as winds become more westerly 15-20kt (gusts around 25kt ocean). Seas may peak at 8ft in nrn coastal waters out near 20NM Monday night. SCA winds should end either by sunrise or by mid morning on Tuesday. Wind speeds become more SW again on Tue and remain breezy 10-15kt due to weaker cold air advection occurring. Seas will be slower to subside, therefore SCA flags should persist for the coastal waters through early Tue aftn srn waters and as late as midnight Tuesday night nrn waters. Fairly benign conditions anticipated for Wed/Wed night with high pressure over the area. Variable aob 10kt Wed/SE aob 15kt Wed night. A warm front is expected to lift north across the waters Thursday as low pressure develops along it Thursday night into Friday. SE winds persist on Thu and become more S Thu night into Fri. Wind speeds could increase to low-end SCA (15-20kt) and seas could build to 5ft due to a tightening pressure gradient. Will need to monitor the evolution of this potential system. && .HYDROLOGY... Flood advisory continues in Mecklenburg county, with VDOT continuing to report numerous roads closed in the Kerr Dam area, creating ongoing navigation concerns. && .CLIMATE... All 4 climate sites broke record high minimum temps for 4/29. RIC...73...old record high min was 67 set in 1956 ORF...76...old record high min was 66 set in 1981 SBY...70...old record high min was 65 set in 1974 ECG...73...old record high min was 67 set in 1981 Record high temps for today 4/30: RIC...93 in 1974 ORF...93 in 1888 SBY...86 in 1974 ECG...90 in 1974 && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...AJZ/MPR LONG TERM...BMD AVIATION...AJB/MPR MARINE...BMD HYDROLOGY / CLIMATE...MPR is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.