Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 050741 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 341 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE CAROLIN`S. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH TO OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY RESULTING IN A PROLONGED NORTHEAST FLOW. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... CURRENT ANALYSIS INDICATING BACKDOOR FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL INTO THE CAROLINAS WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND. SCATTERED SHOWERS JUST EAST OF ACCOMACK THIS MORNING WERE MOVING SOUTHWEST TOWARDS HAMPTON ROADS AND WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST VA AND NORTHEAST NC BETWEEN 09-12Z. DO NOT EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE TOO WIDESPREAD BUT DO PROGRESS CHANCE POPS FROM THE SOUTHEAST VA AND THE NC COAST WEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND MUCH OF NORTHEAST NC THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HIGH RES MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE OVERALL COVERAGE...SO HAVE CAPED POPS AT AROUND 35 PERCENT. LOOKING AT THE BEST MOISTURE FLUX...DO BELIEVE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE LOWER END OF EASTERN SHORE...SOUTHEAST VA AND NORTHEAST NC. MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW FAR WEST SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD...BUT DO BELIEVE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS FAR WEST AS EMPORIA AND LAKE GASTON LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO WATCH RADAR AND MOISTURE TRENDS TO SEE JUST HOW MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY ACTUALLY DEVELOPS AND HOW FAR WEST IT DOES. FOR NOW OVERALL MOISTURE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN LOOKS LIMITED. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY IN MOST AREAS ONCE AGAIN AS STRATUS BECOMES WIDESPREAD ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF RIC. CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE PIEDMONT MIGHT SEE A FEW MORE BREAKS. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT NEAR THE COAST AS PRESSURE RISES CONTINUE WITH ~1025 MB SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND BUILDING SOUTH. SEAS WILL BUILD THIS MORNING RESULTING IN ROUGH SURF AND A MODERATE THREAT OF RIP CURRENT TODAY AND INTO SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPS TODAY RATHER MILD IN THE LOWER 80S WITH A FEW INLAND AREAS PERHAPS REACHING THE MID 80S DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... WITH THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW THE WEATHER LOOKS TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED OVER MUCH SOUTHEASTERN VA...NORTHEAST NC AND EASTERN SHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SE ALLOWING NE WINDS TO REMAIN GUSTY (TO 25-30 MPH) NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT BEFORE DECREASING SUNDAY. CHANCES FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS PRIMARILY OVER SOUTHEAST/SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND NORTHEAST NC REMAIN IN PLACE SUNDAY...BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD BE RATHER SCATTERED AND WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT. THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL HINGS ON DEVELOPMENT OF WK LOW PRES INVOF SE CONUS COAST. COOLER TEMPS CONTINUE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT CONDITIONS REMAIN HUMID THROUGH MONDAY. DRIER AIR OVR NRN COUNTIES DURING THE WEEKEND...SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY OVER THE PIEDMONT FROM RIC NORTH AND WEST. BY MON...GRADUAL EROSION OF THE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED...LEADING TO A BETTER PROB FOR MORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER CONDITIONS WITH A 20-30% IN SE VA/NE NC. HI TEMPS LOW 80S...AND LOW TO MID 80S MON. MOST LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A RATHER DIFFUSE WX PATTERN TO START THE WORK WEEK WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN CONUS AND WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE TN VALLEY THUS KEEPING THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON THE FRINGE OF PERIODIC CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY NEAR COASTAL AREAS OF SE VA/NE NC. FAIRLY LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS ON TUE FINALLY GIVE WAY TO MORE S-SW WINDS TUE NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A BRIEF WARM-UP DURING THE MID-WEEK TIMEFRAME. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S TUE-THU AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S MON NIGHT-THU NIGHT. LONGWAVE TROUGHING BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE THU/FRI ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/GREAT LAKES AREAS AND SHOULD PUSH A MORE WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MOIST NE FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. MVFR STRATUS WILL DEVELOP AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH POSSIBLE IFR CIGS AT KRIC AND KSBY BETWEEN 11Z-13Z. THE LOW STRATUS WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK UP UNTIL MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTN...ESPECIALLY THE SE COASTAL SITES WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST THRU THE DAY. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS THE SE. WINDS WILL ALSO GUST BETWEEN 20-25 KT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...THEN IMPROVED CONDITIONS TO START NEXT WEEK. && .MARINE... SCA CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH LATE THIS AFTN OR EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY IMPROVING TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. NE WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 KT TODAY...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 30 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER. SEAS WILL TOP OUT BETWEEN 5-6 FT (PERHAPS UP TO 7 FT OUTER NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS)...WITH WAVES REACHING 4-5 FT ON THE CHESAPEAKE BAY (HIGHEST AT THE MOUTH). CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT FOR MOST OF THE BAY...CURRITUCK SOUND...AND ERN VA RIVERS SO THAT SCA FLAGS CAN END. STILL EXPECTING WAVES TO REMAIN AROUND 4 FT AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY INTO SUN MORNING...WITH SEAS LINGERING AROUND 5 FT. SEAS WILL BE SLOWEST TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS ON SUNDAY AS SEAS REMAIN AOA 5 FT. THUS...HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES INTO SUNDAY AFTN. AFTER THAT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY TO START NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION...THE ONSHORE FLOW AND HIGH NEARSHORE WAVES WILL ENHANCE THE RIP CURRENT THREAT INTO MONDAY. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... PERSISTENT NE WINDS OF 15-25KT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN TIDAL ANOMALIES AROUND 0.5 TO 1.0 FT ABOVE NORMAL AND WATER LEVELS JUST BELOW HAT TO 0.5 FT ABOVE HAT DURING THE SATURDAY AFTN/EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLES. SEVERAL TIDAL GAUGES ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND IN CHES BAY MAY EITHER FALL JUST SHORT OF MINOR FLOODING OR JUST CREST INTO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS/LEVELS. COASTAL FLOOD HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR SATURDAY AFTN/EVENING... HOWEVER WOULD LIKE TO MONITOR TRENDS OVERNIGHT AS THE NE WINDS INCREASE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ635>637. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ632-633. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ630- 631-638. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...JAO SHORT TERM...ALB/JAO LONG TERM...BMD AVIATION...JDM MARINE...BMD TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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