Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 240718 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 318 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MIDWEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES ~1030MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD THIS MORNING. ALOFT, A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE FROM THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS... WITH AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING EAST DOWNSTREAM FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID- ATLANTIC REGION. SFC HIGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT FARTHER EAST TODAY, WITH LLVL S-SE FLOW ALLOWING FOR A MODEST WARM-UP TODAY WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS. POPS REMAIN NEAR NIL UNDERNEATH THE UPPER RIDGE. LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM AROUND 70/LOWER 70S OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN ON THE EASTERN SHORE...MID TO UPPER 70S SE COAST...AND LOW TO MID 80S INLAND UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. BENIGN WX CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH SFC HIGH ALIGNED JUST OFFSHORE. LGT S FLOW WILL BRING ANOTHER COOL NIGHT, THOUGH NOT AS COOL AS TEMPERATURES WE`RE SEEING THIS MORNING. EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE U50S-M60S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. SFC HIGH BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THRU THE PERIOD...AND SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE UPR RIDGE KEEPS AIRMASS DRY DESPITE INCRG PW / DP TEMPS. LOOK FOR A CONTINUED MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS MONDAY L-M80S. HIGHS TUE 85-90. COOLER AT THE BEACHES EACH DAY. EARLY MORNING LOWS SETTLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EACH DAY AND TYPICAL DIURNAL CHANCES FOR SHRAS/TSTMS ACROSS NW AREAS. HI TEMPS WILL AVG FM THE MID 80S TO NR 90 WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 60S EACH DAY...ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN THRU THE PERIOD AS WAVES OF LO PRES PASS MAINLY NW OF THE LOCAL AREA. POPS WILL BE 20-30% EACH AFTN/EVENG FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT SE VA/NE NC...WITH NO REASON TO GO HIGHER AT THIS POINT DUE TO WEAK FORCING AND UPR-LEVEL RIDGING. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SFC HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SE-S AROUND 10KT OR LESS...WITH A BRIEF UPTICK IN WIND SPEEDS DURING PEAK HEATING/AFTN MIXING. AS MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE MON AFTN...EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME MORE SLY AND INCREMENTALLY MORE BREEZY EACH AFTN/EARLY EVENING MON AND TUE. RIDGING BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON WED AND AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE/ENERGY FROM A REMNANT WRN TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .MARINE... LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS HI PRES CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLC WITH WINDS AVGG BLO 10 KT. THE HI WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE LATER THIS AFTN AND EVENG WITH WINDS BCMG SELY OVER ALL WTRS. FAIRLY STAGNANT WX PATTERN THEN INTO ERLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WITH THE SFC HI REMAINING OFFSHORE AND LO PRES STAYING WELL W OF THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PERSISTENT SLY FLOW TO DEVELOP...AVGG 10-15 KT. CONDS MAY COME CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA OVER THE BAY LATE EACH AFTN/EVENG BUT FOR NOW FORECASTING MAINLY ~15 KT THERE WITH 2-3 FT WAVES. EXPECT 2-3 FT SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS...UP TO 4 FT AT TIMES FOR NRN WTRS. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MAM SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...BMD MARINE...MAS

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