Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 241721 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 121 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY...THEN DISSIPATES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING S/W ALLOWING CLOUDS TO THIN AND ADDNTL HEATING TO OCCUR. MEANWHILE...SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MTS TO THE NW WITH HRRR SUGGESTS THESE SAG SE ACROSS FA LATER THIS AFTRN AND EVE. TMPS IN THE L-M80S. PVS DSCN: ...SURVEY TEAM AT THE EASTERN SHORE THIS AFTRN... CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS OUT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT CRNTLY MOVG OFFSHORE WITH NUMEROUS SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS IN EFFECT. STRONGEST STORM FORMED OVER THE CHES BAY JUST AFTER 8 AM THEN INTENSIFIED AS IT MOVED ONSHORE AT A CAMPGROUND IN NORTHAMPTON COUNTY ARND 830 AM. SEVERAL REPORTS OF INJURIES WITH NUMEROUS REPORTS OF DAMAGE RECEIVED. SEE LSRAKQ FOR LATEST DETAILS. UPDATE TO BE ISSUED ONCE SURVEY IS COMPLETED. PVS DSCN: TONIGHT... BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL ACROSS SERN VA/NRN NC TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AS THE UPPER TROF LINGERS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH FRI AFTN. WHILE POPS ARE DROPPED ACROSS THE NORTH, LOW END CHC POPS LINGER SOUTH OF THE NC BORDER. WEAK FLOW WILL BRING ONLY MODEST INFLUX OF COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES, WITH ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT FOR MOST. EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S FAR NORTHERN ZONES, 65 TO AROUND 70 SOUTH ELSEWHERE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... UPPER TROUGH AXIS PUSHES ACROSS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY AFTN, WITH THE SFC FRONT CLEARING THE CWA BY MIDDAY (STALLING JUST TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT). DRY FRI EXCEPT KEPT A SLIGHT CHC POP IN ACROSS NE NC ZONES FRIDAY MORNING. THICKNESS TOOLS YIELD HIGHS IN THE L-M80S, WHICH IS REFLECTED WELL BY THE GOING FORECAST. WEAK CAA ACROSS THE NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. GFS CONTINUES TO BRING ACROSS SOME ISOLATED THUNDER BACK IN SAT AFTN AS LLVL SW FLOW DEVELOPS AND PUSHES STALLED FRONT BACK NORTH. HOWEVER, WITH BEST FORCING PASSING REGION WELL TO THE NORTH, AND WITH STRONG MIDLEVEL CAP (INVERSION) EVIDENT ON FORECAST CROSS SECTIONS, THINKING IS THAT OUR REGION WILL REMAIN DRY SATURDAY AND SAT NIGHT. HIGHS SAT 85-90. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF SAT NGT INTO SUN WITH AN UPR-LEVEL TROF DIGGING OVR THE ERN CONUS AND SFC HI PRES PUSHING OFFSHORE. A COMPLEX AREA OF SFC LO PRES WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH A PREFRNTAL LEE TROF LEADING TO A CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS OVR THE LOCAL AREA. WITH DEEP S/SW FLOW...TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE LO TO MID 90S. THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LO WILL PUSH E AND DRAG A COLD FRNT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION MON/MON NGT. INCLUDED A 40% CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. HIGHS MON IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S. ASIDE FM A LO CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR THE CST...CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT FOR TUE AND WED...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 80S. && .AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER OVER THE MD/VA LOWER EASTERN SHORE IN THE VICINITY OF A THERMAL TROUGH THROUGH AT LEAST 24/1000Z. AFTER WHICH...INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT NEAR THE WV/VA BORDER WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE FROM KSBY TO KLKU WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING AS THE NEXT BATCH OF RAIN MOVES EWD THIS MORNING...JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME FOCUSED ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...WITH BEST CHANCES EXPECTED TO OCCUR SOUTHEAST OF KRIC. STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO BECOME SEVERE...HOWEVER LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD BE THE MAIN IMPACTS TODAY. CONDITIONS DRY OUT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS ALONG THE NC COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SE VA/NE NC ON FRIDAY UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WNW. THE HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY...BRINGING A RETURN TO RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS DURING MOST OF THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION ON SUNDAY. IT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN STALL NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MON/TUE. NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. && .MARINE... AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS POSITIONED ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TO SRN NJ AND THEN CUTS WWD ACROSS NRN VA AS OF 330 AM THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE WATERS TODAY AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. THE COLD FRONT STALLS ALONG THE NC COAST LATER THIS EVENING INTO FRI MORNING...THEN PUSHES FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. WSW TO WNW WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING...THEN BECOME NW-N THIS AFTN THROUGH FRI MORNING (AOB 15 KT). WAVES GENERALLY 1-2 FT TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE SEAS AVERAGE 1-3 FT DURING THE SAME TIME. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS ON FRI AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WINDS N-NE AOB 10 KT FRI/FRI NIGHT. THE SFC HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SAT MORNING WITH WEAK CAA OCCURRING BEHIND ITS DEPARTURE. THIS WILL MARK A RETURN TO ONSHORE E-SE WINDS AOB 15 KT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY WILL CAUSE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN AND A SLY SURGE IN WINDS IS ANTICIPATED SAT NIGHT. THIS MAY PUSH SPEEDS INTO LOW-END SCA FOR CHES BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND (AOB 20 KT)...HOWEVER WAA PROCESSES MAY PREVENT THIS FROM ACTUALLY HAPPENING. WILL MONITOR MODEL TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO DETERMINE IF SCA HEADLINES ARE NECESSARY. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS LATE MON/MON NIGHT. && .EQUIPMENT... KDOX RADAR HAS RETURNED TO SERVICE BUT REMAINS UNSTABLE. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM SHORT TERM...MAM LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...BMD MARINE...BMD EQUIPMENT...

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