Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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976 FXUS61 KAKQ 270130 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 930 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Strong high pressure will remain centered over the southeast United States through the end of the week. A weak frontal boundary will move south into the local area tonight, then lingers across the region through Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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Very warm and humid conditions combined with the energy fm an approaching frontal boundary fm the N, and other outflow boundaries produced sctd showers and tstms acrs much of cntrl and srn VA and NE NC this evening. Many tstms were producing very heavy rain with minor flooding occurring in some locations. Sctd showers and tstms will continue ovrngt into early Wed morning as the frontal boundary sinks swrd into the area. Otherwise, partly cloudy, warm and humid with lows in the mid to upr 70s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... Westerly flow aloft will allow the aforementioned boundary to stall over the local area on Wednesday. Meanwhile, strong high pressure remains centered over the area through Friday. There will continue to be enough instability, moisture, and weak forcing to support scattered tstms Wed/Thu aftn/eve (30-40% PoPs) across the area. Again, the threat of severe wx will remain low given weak shear profiles but locally heavy rain is possible with PWs in excess of 2". Given the increased cloud cover Wed and slightly lower/cooler low-level thicknesses and H85 temps across the north/west, should be able to shrink the size of the Heat Advisory headline to SE VA and NE NC. (Similar headline may be necessary Thu). Highs reach the low to mid 90s under a partly sunny sky. Latest model data suggests the weak front lifts back north as a warm front Thurs night to near the mason-dixon line on Friday in response to a series of weak disturbances progged to track east along it. Lows Thu night in the mid/upr 70s. Data also shows a lingering sfc trough in lee of mountains. Given the available low level moisture, expect enough instability across the region to carry chc pops across the northern two-thirds of the area Fri aftn (slight chc far south). Warm and humid again with highs in the low to mid 90s (possible heat advisory SE areas). && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... No major changes to the going forecast for the extended. The westerlies generally remain north of the area through early next week with the frontal boundary remaining just north of the area or even over the region through the period. This frontal boundary will allow for chances of showers and thunderstorms through the entire forecast period...with slightly higher POPs Sunday into Sunday night as heights lower across the forecast area as a weak upper trough passes north of the region. Will go with a dry forecast on Tuesday as the GFS and ECMWF finally suggest the surface front may pass south of the area as the upper trough deepens over New England and the Mid-Atlantic. It will continue warm and humid through the extended with highs each day in the low-mid 90s with dew points still in the low-mid 70s. Probably not quite as warm as previous days...but still uncomfortable. Perhaps a little cooler and slightly drier on Tuesday. && .AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 23z...Scattered thunderstorms have been in vicinity of all the TAF sites except SBY during the past couple of hours. Thunderstorms were generally dissipating at issuance time. A weak cold front over northern Virginia will remain over the Mid Atlantic States Wednesday. Winds will generally be light and variable through the TAF period. Included MVFR visbilities around sunrise at RIC and SBY due to wet ground and expected calm winds. More convection can be expected late in the day on Wednesday. OUTLOOK...Scattered mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms can be expected through Saturday. && .MARINE... Generally quiet marine conditions expected through next week with a weak front remaining just north of the area and high pressure well offshore. Winds will generally stay less than 15 kt and seas over the coastal waters 2 ft or less. With the chances for storms each day...cannot rule out stronger winds in and near storms but otherwise quiet through the weekend and even into early next week. && .CLIMATE... No records have been set so far during the current heat spell. Records Tue (7/26) * RIC: 100 (1940) Actual high 95 * ORF: 100 (1940) Actual high 93 * SBY: 102 (1940) Actual high 93 * ECG: 97 (1949) Actual high 95 && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NCZ012>017- 030>032-102. VA...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for VAZ079>082- 087>090-092-093-095>098-514-523>525. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM/TMG SHORT TERM...JDM LONG TERM...MRD AVIATION...LSA MARINE...MRD/LSA CLIMATE...AKQ

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