Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 280047 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 747 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FARTHER EASTWARD OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SLOWLY MOVES TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND ENHANCE THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON MONDAY BUT LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE AREA INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST REMAINS IN CONTROL AND LOOKS TO HOLD PRECIPITATION OFF UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THERE REMAINS A LOT OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND THIS WILL START TO MAKE ITS WAY EAST OVERNIGHT...THICKENING AS IT DOES. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS EVENING...BECOMING CLOUDY BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5-10 MPH...EXPECT MILDER OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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WHILE MODELS AGREE ON THE OVERALL PATTERN AND TIMING OF THE PERTURBATIONS IN THE SW FLOW...HANDLING OF THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE DIFFERS JUST ENOUGH TO MAKE EXACT TIMING OF PRECIPITATION TRICKY FROM SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NE ALONG THE FRONT AND OVER THE REGION LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE IN THE SWLY FLOW AND PLENTY OF ISENTROPIC LIFT PRESENT...THE RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD PRECIP WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL SPREADING SW TO NE ACROSS THE REGION THRU THE DAY SUNDAY. BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE ACROSS THE WRN AND NRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL VA. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS IN THE FORECAST, BUT POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE RAISED TO CATEGORICAL ONCE THE EXACT TRACK OF THE BEST PRECIP IS KNOWN. HIGHS SUN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S INLAND TO LOW 60S SE WHERE RAIN BEGINS LATER IN THE DAY. THIS INITIAL WAVE OF PRECIP LIFTS THRU THE AREA SUN AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR A BREAK IN THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT. THE FRONT STALLS JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND EXTENDS SE INTO THE CAROLINAS AS SWLY FLOW AND DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES. THE LULL IN PRECIP SUN EVENING WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DEAMPLIFIES AND LIFTS INTO THE REGION LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A STRONGER SFC LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT...LIFTING INTO NC EARLY MON MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS EXPECTED LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THIS ROUND OF PRECIP SHOULD BE MORE FOCUSED OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST VA AS WELL AS NE NC. MODELS ARE IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT...NOW LINGERING MOISTURE OVER THE AREA INTO MON EVENING. MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS THRU MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS MON RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE N TO NEAR 50 IN THE S. UPPER JET AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT INTO TUE...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL UVM. REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIP MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. TEMP PROFILES EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THRU TUE MORNING...AS THE BEST CAA ARRIVES AS PRECIP PUSHES OFFSHORE LATE MON NIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THRU TUE MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL WRAPAROUND MOISTURE. LOWS MON NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH HIGHS TUESDAY ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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GFS/ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON FRIDAY WITH REGARD TO OVERALL PATTERN. A COLD ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO AND ACROSS THE AREA. WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE DECEMBER. LOW TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AROUND 25-30 DEGREES...A BIT WARMER NEAR THE COAST. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S NW TO THE LOW-MID 30S SE...WITH MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BEFORE 06Z...AS CLOUDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT. HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IN THE 40S...AND IN THE 40S ALL AREAS FRIDAY (EXCEPT SE VA/NE NC WHERE 50S LOOK LIKELY). GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIVERGE FROM NEXT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM. GFS REMAINS 12-18 HOURS FASTER THAN ECMWF WHICH DEVELOPS A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT...DELAYING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL SUNDAY. REGARDLESS... FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE UNSETTLED WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH MANY AREAS POTENTIALLY IN THE 60S.
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&& .AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. PCPN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST AND SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY. THE 12Z NAM HAS TRENDED DRIER THROUGH 18Z AND HELD OFF ON PUTTING PCPN THROUGH THEN. NO FOG ISSUES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5KT OVERNIGHT. OUTLOOK...STEADY RAIN MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SW-W ON SUNDAY WITH PERIODS OF IFR INDICATED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. A TEMPORARY DRYING SHOULD OCCUR LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND PSBL IFR LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. VFR AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
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&& .MARINE... FAIRLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE MARINE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ALONG/JUST OFF THE VA/NC COAST. SOME INCREASE IN WINDS LIKELY TONIGHT/EARLY SUN...WITH SPEEDS IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE. NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA LATE SUNDAY...AND CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. WINDS GRADUALLY DROP OFF AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OUT OF THE N/NE ON MONDAY. MODELS HAVE COME INTO LINE WITH EARLIER FORECAST REASONING...AND ARE NOW INDICATING A STRONGER SURGE...WITH WIND SPEEDS NEAR SCA CRITERIA POSSIBLE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. ALSO EXPECT THAT SEAS WILL EVENTUALLY BUILD TO 5 FT OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS LATE MON-TUE IN N/NE FLOW OF 15-20 KT. MAY NEED SOME SCA HEADLINES DURING THAT TIMEFRAME. SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA BY MIDWEEK...WITH WINDS/SEAS DIMINISHING. && .EQUIPMENT... KDOX 88D RADAR IS EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF SERVICE THROUGH AT LEAST WED 12/31. SEE FTMDOX (FREE TEXT MESSAGE) FOR DETAILS. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BMD/JAO NEAR TERM...BMD/JAO SHORT TERM...JAO LONG TERM...WRS AVIATION...LSA MARINE...LKB/WRS EQUIPMENT...AKQ

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